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Who wins |
Dayton |
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Marquette |
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100% |
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Total Votes : 4 |
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/13/18 12:12 am ::: 9 Dayton vs 8 Marquette - 3/16 2 PM ET |
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First Round - Lexington Region
Louisville, Ky
Last edited by calbearman76 on 03/16/18 4:24 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 03/15/18 1:41 pm ::: |
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I didn't understand those folks saying Dayton wouldn't get an at-large bid. They're a 9 seed. Ahead of Minn, Nebraska, OU, UVA, etc. Rutgers and USC didn't even get a bid.
Dayton wasn't even close to being left out. It was pretty obvious they wouldn't be.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/15/18 3:52 pm ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
I didn't understand those folks saying Dayton wouldn't get an at-large bid. They're a 9 seed. Ahead of Minn, Nebraska, OU, UVA, etc. Rutgers and USC didn't even get a bid.
Dayton wasn't even close to being left out. It was pretty obvious they wouldn't be. |
I'll make the argument simple. Dayton beat Virginia at home. Their next best win was either Harvard on a neutral site, Duquesne at home or @ George Washington. They lost to Toledo, St Louis and George Washington. In comparison, USC did not lose to a team that is seeded lower than 7 and they beat both Oregon St (6 seed) and Arizona St (7).
To me USC has a vastly superior resume, as do several other teams. But once the bubble 8 were announced, it was clear that Dayton was in. I disagree; I would have taken any of those teams plus Indiana, Michigan St and TCU over Dayton. And based on what the Committee has done in previous years this is a strange choice. But having said all of this, Dayton is one of the top 64 teams in the country and they have a 30% chance of beating Marquette.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 03/15/18 6:48 pm ::: |
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It's really simple. Fans may not like it, but the RPI is the NCAA'S own metric, and Dayton has been in the 30s and WAY ahead (like 20 or 30 spots ahead) of those other teams. Dayton was never even close to being on the bubble.
What the committee thinks is reflected in Dayton's seed.
BTW, USC was 1-11 vs RPI top 50 teams. They played more top 50 teams but they lost all but one of those games. That doesn't constitute an impressive resume.
Dayton won a decent conference with a 15-1 record. The Committee wasn't going to penalize them for one upset tournament loss aganst a team they had already beaten twice.
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12615 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Posted: 03/15/18 7:27 pm ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
It's really simple. Fans may not like it, but the RPI is the NCAA'S own metric, and Dayton has been in the 30s and WAY ahead (like 20 or 30 spots ahead) of those other teams. Dayton was never even close to being on the bubble.
What the committee thinks is reflected in Dayton's seed.
BTW, USC was 1-11 vs RPI top 50 teams. They played more top 50 teams but they lost all but one of those games. That doesn't constitute an impressive resume.
Dayton won a decent conference with a 15-1 record. The Committee wasn't going to penalize them for one upset tournament loss aganst a team they had already beaten twice. |
It does if your Oklahoma ...
_________________ 3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/15/18 7:56 pm ::: |
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It really isn't that simple. If it were, then Central Michigan (RPI 15) wouldn't be an 11 seed and Buffalo (RPI 22) wouldn't have been one of the last four in. The RPI is used to evaluate the teams you played, not the teams themselves. That is why Arizona St (RPI 54) was given a 7 seed. They had 5 top 50 wins, which the Committee understood to mean that they were a quality team.
Of all the at-large teams there are only 2 that only had 1 top 50 win (California also has 1 top 50 win now, but had 3 based on the RPI as of Friday night when the information for the Committee was most likely compiled.) The other team is Oklahoma, who was the last team in. Oklahoma's RPI is 35, Dayton's is 36. Other metrics are very similar, particularly if you recategorize Oklahoma St to a top 50 team. This would make sense because any team that the Committee makes at-large team is considered by them as one of the top 50. Oklahoma also had two wins over West Virginia, who would also be top 50 based on being in the last 4 out, while Dayton does not.
Dayton is a good team. Based on their record I believe they are around 50. The Committee saw something in their record that Charlie Creme also saw, but most of us that look at this closely each year do not. Whether this was political (the Atlantic 10 Commisioner being on the Selection Committee) or a general sense that the Atlantic 10 is a better conference than they actually were this year (this is probably their worst year ever), it doesn't follow prior precedent. Had Dayton been included in the last 8 teams I don't think there would have been such amazement. And as for their RPI, they were #69 non-conference and only moved up by virtue of beating a bunch of decent (and not so decent) teams, none of whom were anywhere near tournament worthy.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 03/15/18 9:02 pm ::: |
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If Marquette doesn't handily send them flying, I'll be surprised...but obviously Marquette is also a very up and down team. Dayton at least has been consistent. Yeah they went thru the A-10, but the A-10 hasn't exactly impressed this year.
And it also helps to show why the RPI as it is, is a piece of shit that needs to be replaced by something more meaningful.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67127 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 03/15/18 9:19 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
And it also helps to show why the RPI as it is, is a piece of shit that needs to be replaced by something more meaningful. |
Some rating systems don't like Dayton as much as RPI does. Massey has them at #58. Sagarin has them at #59.
Others have them right about where RPI does. HerHoopStats ranks them #35. Real Time RPI's Power Ranking has them #34.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3582
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Posted: 03/16/18 6:53 am ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
If Marquette doesn't handily send them flying, I'll be surprised...but obviously Marquette is also a very up and down team. Dayton at least has been consistent. Yeah they went thru the A-10, but the A-10 hasn't exactly impressed this year.
And it also helps to show why the RPI as it is, is a piece of shit that needs to be replaced by something more meaningful. |
My hope is it's the opposite of last year when Marquette came in to the tournament on a roll and probably a tad over confident and proceeded to fall on their faces in the first round. They seem to do better when not as much is expected of them. So I really hope they can bounce back from that awful outing and win this game.
I'm already disappointed in this season - step back from last season with the same core of players and will be incredibly disappointed if they once again can't win an NCAA Tourney game.
Go Marquette!
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 03/16/18 7:15 am ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
And it also helps to show why the RPI as it is, is a piece of shit that needs to be replaced by something more meaningful. |
Yeah, maybe.
But my point has never been that the RPI is reliable or that Dayton is good or deserving. It has ONLY been that given their RPI ranking and their domination in the A10, they were definitely going to be selected for the tournament over middle-of-their conference P5 teams with much lower RPIs. If you recall this started with my comment that GWU had stolen someone's at large bid by winning the A10 tourney, thereby converting the A10 to a 2 bid league. That was always my only point. And flawed or not, the RPI is the NCAA's own metric and they do use it today.
Besides, I've been saying for months that there would be plenty of teams in this shallow year's tournament that would be neither good nor deserving.
Although I do wonder how many people truly believe USC or UVA or Minnesota or Rutgers would have gone 15-1 in the A10. I don't.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3582
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Marquette Fan
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Marquette Fan
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Posted: 03/16/18 1:44 pm ::: |
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The bad news is that Natisha Hiedeman is the only Marquette player who has scored today but the good news is that she's had 4 3's and 13 points total.
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018 Posts: 1467
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Posted: 03/16/18 1:50 pm ::: |
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Marquette Fan wrote: |
The bad news is that Natisha Hiedeman is the only Marquette player who has scored today but the good news is that she's had 4 3's and 13 points total. |
We might as well call this Hiedeman versus Dayton. Who needs the other four players.
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Marquette Fan
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Posted: 03/16/18 1:56 pm ::: |
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I'm old enough to remember when Dayton was winning by 8.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3582
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Posted: 03/16/18 1:59 pm ::: |
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SpaceJunkie wrote: |
I'm old enough to remember when Dayton was winning by 8. |
There's still plenty of time for Marquette to blow this lead - they're good at that unfortunately.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3582
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Posted: 03/16/18 2:58 pm ::: |
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Congrats to Amani Wilborn who just became the 4th player in Marquette's junior class with 1,000 career points. Danielle King only has 24 points left to become the 5th. According to MU, they are just the fifth school in the country with 4 active 1,000 point scorers.
Marquette leads 69-54 at the end of the third quarter.
Let's finish this one out - Go Marquette!!!
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Marquette Fan
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 03/16/18 3:26 pm ::: |
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well, at least the two teams who (IMO) least deserved to be in the tourney are now out.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3582
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Posted: 03/16/18 3:31 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
well, at least the two teams who (IMO) least deserved to be in the tourney are now out. |
That's fine but I hope people can give Marquette at least a little credit for playing well today.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Marquette Fan
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/16/18 5:11 pm ::: |
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I'm happy that Marquette showed that they aren't the team that got blown out by DePaul in the Big East final. Hopefully they will show well against Louisville.
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