View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67126 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 01/17/17 12:26 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Howee wrote: |
Okay. I comprehend that your projections here are purely stat-driven. I also believe that things will look remarkable different in March. What factors will be responsible for The Discrepancy? |
The schedule points will go from potential to actual. For example, right now the AAC teams benefit from having UConn on their schedule. When they lose to the Hussies, those points will vanish and they'll fall in the projection. The same will happen in the majors, with winners moving up and losers moving down.
The committee doesn't go strictly on stats. Intangibles like reputation and past tournament results play a big role in their decisions. That's why Maryland is a likely #2 and possible #1 even though the numbers aren't going to support such a seed.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
|
|
Ladyvol777
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 248
Back to top |
Posted: 01/17/17 12:36 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
By the end of the season Tennessee will be at least a # 4
|
|
purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 Posts: 2819 Location: Indiana
Back to top |
Posted: 01/17/17 2:13 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
pilight wrote: |
The committee doesn't go strictly on stats. Intangibles like reputation and past tournament results play a big role in their decisions. That's why Maryland is a likely #2 and possible #1 even though the numbers aren't going to support such a seed. |
I think the entire Big Ten is going to be interesting to see, which I have said since a few months ago. In looking at their RPI, Maryland, Ohio State and the others behind them do NOT have very good numbers. Ohio State has very good losses but clearly didn't really play anyone other than those teams they lost to as their RPI is fairly low given their national ranking. It's going to be interesting to see where the committee ends up seeding these teams.
|
|
elsie
Joined: 08 Apr 2016 Posts: 278
Back to top |
Posted: 01/18/17 12:30 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Zags will be there, period...
|
|
Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63938
Back to top |
Posted: 01/18/17 12:37 am ::: |
Reply |
|
elsie wrote: |
Zags will be there, period... |
Are they going to win their conference?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
|
|
elsie
Joined: 08 Apr 2016 Posts: 278
Back to top |
Posted: 01/19/17 1:14 am ::: |
Reply |
|
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....
|
|
Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18066 Location: Queens
Back to top |
Posted: 01/19/17 8:30 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
elsie wrote: |
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so.... |
They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league.
_________________ Ardent believer in the separation of church and stadium.
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006 Posts: 2396
Back to top |
Posted: 01/19/17 9:05 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Queenie wrote: |
elsie wrote: |
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so.... |
They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league. |
Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league
|
|
Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4076
Back to top |
Posted: 01/19/17 10:04 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
mikeyc22 wrote: |
Queenie wrote: |
elsie wrote: |
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so.... |
They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league. |
Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league |
I don't think you need two worthy teams to be a 2-team league. If the leading team has an impressive enough resume on their own but lose their conference tournament, then a "1-bid conference" can have two bids. Is Green Bay that good? DePaul? (Or is the BE not a midmajor?) The American will probably have at least 2 bids, but again, do we consider them a midmajor?
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006 Posts: 2396
Back to top |
Posted: 01/19/17 11:03 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
mikeyc22 wrote: |
Queenie wrote: |
elsie wrote: |
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so.... |
They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league. |
Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league |
I don't think you need two worthy teams to be a 2-team league. If the leading team has an impressive enough resume on their own but lose their conference tournament, then a "1-bid conference" can have two bids. Is Green Bay that good? DePaul? (Or is the BE not a midmajor?) The American will probably have at least 2 bids, but again, do we consider them a midmajor? |
Yeah was excluding the Big East and AAC.
|
|
Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4076
Back to top |
Posted: 01/20/17 11:05 am ::: |
Reply |
|
mikeyc22 wrote: |
Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
mikeyc22 wrote: |
Queenie wrote: |
elsie wrote: |
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so.... |
They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league. |
Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league |
I don't think you need two worthy teams to be a 2-team league. If the leading team has an impressive enough resume on their own but lose their conference tournament, then a "1-bid conference" can have two bids. Is Green Bay that good? DePaul? (Or is the BE not a midmajor?) The American will probably have at least 2 bids, but again, do we consider them a midmajor? |
Yeah was excluding the Big East and AAC. |
I agree that both conferences are tweeners. So with Green Bay possibly losing their conference tourney, is the Horizon possibly the only 2-bid true midmajor conference? I can think of no other. This is definitely NOT the year of the midmajor.
|
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67126 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 12:16 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Multiple Bid Conferences
8 ACC
8 SEC
7 P12
6 B12
3 AAC
3 B10
3 BEast
2 MVC
Just Missed: Georgia Tech, Missouri, Northwestern, Drexel
Last In: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Creighton, Texas A&M
How did I arrive at this?
First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.
Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.
I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.
Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.
Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance two teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Arkansas-Little Rock moved up one; Arkansas moved down one.
Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.
The cut off for getting in as an at large was -2.5 points. It took 10.75 points to get a #1 seed.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
|
|
Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63938
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 3:38 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Pilight, I think you can read my mind.
I'm glad you figured out ND, but I'm not sure I'm feeling that much better about FSU.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
|
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67126 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 3:52 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Shades wrote: |
Pilight, I think you can read my mind.
I'm glad you figured out ND, but I'm not sure I'm feeling that much better about FSU. |
You still haven't said who you think should be there
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
|
|
Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63938
Back to top |
|
Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013 Posts: 5223
Back to top |
|
Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3582
Back to top |
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67126 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 8:29 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
UCLA surprised me a bit. Only one top 25 win, which is balanced out by the loss to Washington State.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
|
|
Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63938
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 9:08 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Miss St went down. Pilight's looking like a genius for FSU now. Maryland? Naah
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
|
|
joetro
Joined: 30 Nov 2006 Posts: 334
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 9:14 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
How on earth is UW ahead of ND? ND won H2H and has played a much tougher schedule with a much higher RPI. Yes, one more loss, but that's what happens when you play tough OOC teams. Furthermore, if Maryland was punished for poor schedule, how is UW not?
|
|
Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63938
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 9:17 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
ND lost to Tennessee, and that's still fresh.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
|
|
joetro
Joined: 30 Nov 2006 Posts: 334
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 9:21 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
It should be about way more than a game a week ago.
|
|
Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013 Posts: 5223
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 9:28 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
The Big Ten is pretty bad this year, so Maryland has multiple sub 150 RPI games left. They could easily fall to a 4 or 5 seed as they don't have many games that will help their RPI.
Kentucky is in a similar situation. Four games minimum left against sub RPI 100 teams. They have a small margin of error in keeping a top 4 seed.
|
|
myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
Back to top |
Posted: 01/23/17 10:15 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
There will only be one P12 #2...if that. And Maryland will be a #2. Maybe Texas as well.
Washington lives in the glow of the Plum effect. They aren't that good, it's just that Plum is good enough to grab them up by the bootstraps and carry them to win against most teams. I will be very surprised if they end up as a #2. This is however, going to be a fun seeding year. It's not going to be all pre-determined as it sometimes has felt to be in years past.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
|
|
purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 Posts: 2819 Location: Indiana
Back to top |
Posted: 01/24/17 9:24 am ::: |
Reply |
|
It is mind-boggling how "bad" Ohio State is right now. I know they are mixing in the transfers and all that, but there is no flipping way that team shouldn't be a Top 16 squad. I have always maintained that McGuff was not a very good coach (excellent recruiter) and it seems like that is playing out here. Player for player, there is as much talent on that Ohio State roster as any other team in the nation. They are just not very disciplined and don't always play as a team and much of that falls on the head coach.
And before Buckeye fans jump all over me, I know their OOC losses are at home to South Carolina, vs Baylor on a neutral court, home vs Miami, at UConn. All are understandable, however, they should not lose at home to Miami. That's the one they definitely should have gotten. But to get blown out at Michigan State, a team that Purdue swept, just should not happen this year. Ohio State's talent vs MSU isn't even close.
Anyway, this year really blows for the entire conference.
|
|
|
|