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RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 05/29/21 8:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Unfortunately, while I was posting/gloating, the moneyline has been pulled. +135 it is.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/29/21 12:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 29

@New York 3 Atlanta 168
@Dallas 1 Phoenix 167.5

New York is 5-1 thanks primarily to the play of Sabrina Ionescu and Betnijah Laney. Laney has been the most improved player over the past few seasons. This is her fifth team in 6 seasons and she has found a home. She had 2 lackluster seasons in Chicago before being waived. She sat out a year and did little after being picked up by Connecticut for the 2018 season. She was a starter for Indiana in 2019 but was known only as a defensive player. Then in 2019 she won the Most Improved player with Atlanta, averaging 17 points per game. She developed a 3pt shot, shooting 40% after hitting less than 30% previously in her career. This year she has been playing as well as anyone. She is averaging 23 points on 54% shooting (52% from 3) and now she gets to play against her team from last season. Atlanta has won their last three games after starting out 0-2. I like the Liberty just enough to make it a play, but my I definitely like the over. Atlanta has increased their scoring each game, from 67 in their opener to 77, 83, 90 and 101. I don't expect them to hit the century mark today but I do expect them to keep running. The Liberty are 5-1 going over this season including their last 4. I think it will take 90 to win.

Not nearly as much to say about Phoenix and Dallas. These are perhaps the two most disappointing teams this season. I lean to the Mercury with Skyler Diggins, now the team leader, returning to Dallas, but I won't make it a play.

Last night I lost the opener by a basket thanks to a poor start by the Sun as well as a 3 pointer by Ariel Atkins in the final minute. Seattle led by 30 in the 4th quarter and still managed to almost lose the cover. And Las Vegas destroyed Indiana because, unlike Seattle, they played all 4 quarters.

Last Night 2-1
Season 16-13


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 05/29/21 1:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:
Unfortunately, while I was posting/gloating, the moneyline has been pulled. +135 it is.


Even though I disagree with your pick I certainly like your line. Getting the best line is every bit as important as making good picks. I was looking at NY -140, Atlanta +120.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/29/21 3:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:
Been a great week (and season) so far--Dream Tuesday, Aces Wednesday and Sparks Friday. I like the Dream +155 today.



Good pick. I thought the Liberty might get them in the end but at least the game went over for me. The collapse in scoring at the end of the 3rd and 4th quarters almost did me in but overtime saved me.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/30/21 12:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 30

@Chicago 2.5 Los Angeles 165.5
@Las Vegas 13.5 Indiana 168
Connecticut 2.5 @Minnesota 156.5

I don't know what is going on with Chicago. Friday they scored only 61 points, their worst output in nearly 3 years. Today they have a rematch with LA. I will take the under in this rematch, even with a 4.5 drop in the total from Friday.

Best vs. worst in Las Vegas, and Hatar may be out again. I don't think I have laid 13.5 before in the WNBA but I will today.

Connecticut has the best record in the WNBA at 6-1, Minnesota has the worst at 0-4, but the Sun are only a 2.5 favorite. The Lynx were awful on Friday, down by 30 in the 4th before they ended on a face saving 19-0 run. I feel like this is a trap but I will take the Sun.

None of these 3 are strong plays and based on my troubles on Sunday this season I considered passing on the whole card, but it's only money.

Yesterday 1-1
Season 17-14


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 05/31/21 10:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Good call on the Sky-Sparks under. The Lynx with Collier in the lineup should be one of the best teams in the league, so I would not lay points against them at home, but that was definitely a bad beat--up 8 with a little more than a minute to go is an awful collapse by the Sun.

I went with the Sparks again Sunday to cap off the first and likely last perfect week of the season.



calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/31/21 3:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A very strange day for betting history. I doubt there has ever been a day where two games went into overtime and both totals stayed under. LA-Chicago was under by 21 in regulation and thankfully had a 9-6 OT. Sun-Lynx was under by 30 in regulation and was 16-11 in OT.

Congratulations on your perfect week.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/01/21 2:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 1

Las Vegas 1 @Connecticut 160
@Chicago 1 Phoenix 163.5
Los Angeles 1 @Dallas 166
@Seattle 15 Indiana 170

Four games, three that are nearly pick 'em and 1 with the biggest line in a few years. Las Vegas is a 1 point favorite at Connecticut. The Sun beat the Aces a week ago in Las Vegas. but since then have lost 2 of 3. I think the Aces will exact revenge on the Sun so I will take Las Vegas -1.

Chicago has been awful after their first two games. They look rudderless without Candace Parker even though she has played only 1 game. In their last game Courtney Vandersloot to force OT. I doubt she will do that again tonight. I really like the under and I will also make a small play on Phoenix.

Los Angeles has won its last two games over Chicago. Dallas has lost its last 4 after beating the Sparks 94-71 in the opener. I looked hard at LA having revenge and playing better of late but I really don't trust them. I'll pass.

Seattle is one of the two best teams in the WNBA. Indiana is the worst. At first blush this is a replay of Indiana's last two games in Vegas, but Laimbeer is much more likely to win big. If Hatar is back for Indiana I would take the Fever, but since I don't know I will pass.

Sunday 2-1
Season 19-15


calbearman76



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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/03/21 3:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 3

Las Vegas 8.5 @New York 169
@Phoenix 1.5 Chicago 164
@Los Angeles 5.5 Indiana 158.5

The Aces like winning big. The Liberty have played all their games against under .500 teams. Unfortunately the line is just a little too high for me to make this a play. And the total also looks right. Pass

Chicago is getting a few players back tonight as Dolson and Quigley look to return. But Parker is still out. This is an old fashioned back to back series where the teams are playing on each other's home court. I'll take the Mercury to win again and hope it doesn't take a shot at the buzzer.

At first blush any team laying 5.5 at home against the woeful Fever seems like a steal. But both Ogwumikes may be out and Bernadett Hatar (who along with Jessica Breland) has been a real bright spot for Indiana. So I lean to LA but will wait to see their status before I make a play. As for the total Indiana has allowed 302 points in its first three games on this road trip. They have gone over 160 5 of their last 6. The Sparks have gone under in all 5 games this season, but that could change with Nneka out. She is one of the best defenders in the league. In the four games she missed last season the Sparks total was more 10 points higher than when she played. I will take the over.

Tuesday 1-2
Season 20-17


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 06/03/21 8:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Looks like we're on opposite sides tonight. I like the Sky at +100. Good luck!


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 06/03/21 11:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Leave it to the Sky to blow a 13-point lead in the 4th. Vandersloot in particular cannot be trusted with the game on the line. It goes bad for her all too often, tonight being no different, although she did find a new way with the technical up by one with seconds to go.


calbearman76



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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/04/21 12:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:
Leave it to the Sky to blow a 13-point lead in the 4th. Vandersloot in particular cannot be trusted with the game on the line. It goes bad for her all too often, tonight being no different, although she did find a new way with the technical up by one with seconds to go.


Yeah, I got lucky on that one. But I got really lucky on my big play, the LA game over. At one point the Fever went 1-16 FG, but in the last 3:34 the teams combined for 23 points on 8-10 shooting. I had no business winning that one but a win is a win. (And I know a bad beat is right around the corner.)


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/04/21 3:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 4

@Minnesota 6.5 Atlanta 160.5
@Seattle 9.5 Dallas 170.5

32 years ago today the Chinese government overran Tiananmen Square to put down protestors. I will refrain from any analogies between facing down a tank and betting on the WNBA.

Minnesota struggled out of the gate, losing its first 4 games before beating the league-leading Connecticut Sun. Atlanta lost its first 2 but has won 4 in a row since. But the cohesion the Dream have shown will be tested as Chennedy Carter is out and Cheyenne Parker will make her season debut. The Dream's winning streak was aided by playing the weaker teams in the League so the question is whether the Lynx qualify as a weaker team. I think the Lynx, with the additions of Napheesa Collier and Layshia Clarendon are not so I will take them and lay the points.

Seattle has been the best team so far this season. Dallas has looked good at times but has only been able to beat LA. The Storm beat Dallas 100-97 in Arlington. I can't lay the points because I don't trust the Storm to want to win big, but I will make a small play over the total.

At about 8:45 last night I was having a very bad day. The Sky were up double digits in the fourth. The Fever were ice cold and only scored 25 points in the first half (13 in the last 16 minutes.) But then the Mercury started coming back and Courtney Vandersloot picked up a late technical which allowed the Mercury to force overtime. After the game ended I watched as LA and Indiana managed to score 23 points in the final 3:34 (that is a 258 point pace for a full game) by hitting 80% of the field goals in that time. I still believe the over was the correct side. The pace of play and lack of defense were as I expected, but when one team shoots 27% over a 33 minute stretch (excludes the first 4 minutes and the last 3) you need some help to get the over.

Last night 2-0
Season 22-17


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 06/04/21 6:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I like both of these plays tonight, and a small amount on Dallas +440 with Gray and Sabally available.

Minnesota -6.5
Dallas +9


RP



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PostPosted: 06/05/21 9:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Chicago +145 was too good to pass up. Line is at -105 now. I generally would not parlay such heavy favorites, but also going with Las Vegas-Connecticut ML. The early/late start makes this tempting since it is next to impossible to see how the Mystics pull out a win over the Aces. If that game hits, I'll be able to hedge the night cap for what becomes a + bet on Connecticut, if I so choose.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/05/21 10:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 5

Las Vegas 7.5 @Washington 167
@Los Angeles 1.5 Chicago 159.5
@Connecticut 9 New York 161

Las Vegas just played New York in a very similar situation. The Aces got the cover but only by ending the game on a 14-3 run. I lean to the Aces and the over but I won't make a play.

Chicago has been snake-bit of late, losing their last 3 games by a total of 7 points, 2 in OT and 1 on a 35 footer by Kia Nurse. Los Angeles won big on Thursday without the Ogwumikes, but that was against Indiana. I'll take the Sky, but I wish I got up earlier to get the better line. As for the total I really like the Sparks over without Nneka, but the last two games these teams played were 137 and 144(in regulation). LA played 5 unders before their last game when they creeped over because of a big run in garbage time. The bettors have hammered the game down from an opening line of 162 to as low as 158 now. If it goes lower I might take the over but for now I will pass.

Connecticut has played as well as anyone this season. New York got off to a 5-1 start but that was against very weak competition. Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones should have a big game against a poor front line for the Liberty. Not a strong play but I will take the Sun.

Last night Minnesota played just well enough to win but not well enough to cover. Aari McDonald cushioned the loss of Chennedy Carter with 15 points. In the other game Seattle and Dallas combined for 207 points, even more than the 197 they scored in their first matchup (although this game was in OT) They play again tomorrow and I am interested to see how much of an adjustment there is in the total.

Last Night 1-1
Season 23-18


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/06/21 3:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 6

@Minnesota 5.5 Atlanta 163.5
@Seattle 9 Dallas 176

Minnesota and Atlanta are playing again 2 days after the Lynx pulled out an 84-82 win. The line dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 and the total was raised from 160.5 to 163.5. I will stay away from the side but I think the adjustment of the total was overdone so I will take the under.

Seattle and Dallas have played two close, high scoring games that Seattle has pulled out late. I see no reason not to expect a third. The oddsmakers boosted the total 5.5 points but I will still take the over. Today I will also take Dallas.

Yesterday Chicago once again faltered down the stretch The Sky led 57-53 with 5:40 to go and managed to score only 1 point in 5 minutes, turning a 5 point lead into a 7 point deficit. I will not take the Sky again until they break their 7 game losing streak (both outright and against the spread.) On the plus side the Sun used a 21-2 run over the last 3 minutes of the 2nd quarter and the first 3 minutes of the third to easily beat the fading Liberty. New York has now lost 3 in a row and could very easily lose their next 4 before a 2 game home series with Chicago.

Yesterday 1-1
Season 24-18


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 06/06/21 8:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:
I like both of these plays tonight, and a small amount on Dallas +440 with Gray and Sabally available.

Minnesota -6.5
Dallas +9


Much better second time around. Minnesota -5.5, Dallas +9 and +406 to save my week and then some.



RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 06/06/21 8:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Yesterday Chicago once again faltered down the stretch The Sky led 57-53 with 5:40 to go and managed to score only 1 point in 5 minutes, turning a 5 point lead into a 7 point deficit. I will not take the Sky again until they break their 7 game losing streak (both outright and against the spread.)


The positive to Chicago finding everyway to lose is we will get some great ML opportunities, even once Parker returns.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/08/21 3:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 8

Minnesota 2 @Washington 164.5
@Phoenix 2 Dallas 166

Minnesota has bounced back from an 0-4 start thanks to the return of Napheesa Collier and the signing of Layshia Clarendon. Washington has covered their last 3, a win over Indiana and close losses to Connecticut and Las Vegas. I believe the bad start still has Minnesota underrated and even though I like Mike Thibault as a great coach I will take the Lynx as a small road favorite.

Phoenix has played better since the injury to Diana Taurasi. Griner has stepped up, including a 27 point effort against these Wings 10 days ago. But Dallas now has Sabally back to provide some interior defense. The Wings are coming off a win at Seattle and are looking like a team that will need to be reckoned with this season, but for today I still like the Mercury.

Sunday the Wings played another tight game with the Storm and this time got the win. Unfortunately both my total plays went down in flames.

Sunday 1-2
Season 25-20


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/08/21 3:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Yesterday Chicago once again faltered down the stretch The Sky led 57-53 with 5:40 to go and managed to score only 1 point in 5 minutes, turning a 5 point lead into a 7 point deficit. I will not take the Sky again until they break their 7 game losing streak (both outright and against the spread.)


The positive to Chicago finding everyway to lose is we will get some great ML opportunities, even once Parker returns.


Chicago plays 2 games against Indiana this week so they should get a few wins. I'm not sure what the impact of Parker will be when she returns. But I do believe there are often opportunities to bet teams later in the season that start off poorly early.


calbearman76



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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/09/21 4:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 9

Seattle 8.5 @Atlanta 169
@Chicago 10.5 Indiana 158

Atlanta has played well since their early struggles, notwithstanding a 20 point blowout loss to the Lynx in their last game. Seattle is one of the top 3 teams in the WNBA, but they have not shown a desire to win big. The spread is large enough for me to take the Dream. I also lean to the over (but will not make it a play) as Atlanta's last 5 games have had at least 170 points, averaging 177 points.

Chicago and Indiana have been awful this season. The Sky gets Candace Parker back so they should be able to beat the Fever. Indiana has lost its 5 games by an average of 25 points. I can't bet the Sky until they show something so I will pass, There is a strong case to be made for the under based on Chicago's record. 4 of their last 5 have gone under including 2 that went into overtime. On the other hand Indiana has allowed 100 points per game on this road trip (and I'm reasonably confident they can score 60.) So I will pass.

Over the last few days I have given up almost all of my profits for the year. Minnesota fell apart in the 3rd quarter, being outscored 21-2 over a 5:10 span. Brittney Griner had a big game with 27 points and 16 rebounds and Diggins-Smith also contributed but the rest of Mercury didn't show up.

Yesterday 0-2
Season 25-22


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 06/09/21 4:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yesterday was too much of a toss up for me to play. I do not particularly like either line tonight, but do like Seattle and Chicago enough to go with a teaser on Seattle -4.5 and Chicago -5.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/10/21 2:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 10

@Washington 6 Los Angeles 159.5

Washington has been playing well of late. They have covered their last 4 games. Tuesday they beat Minnesota outright. Los Angeles is without both Ogwumikes but has won its last 2 without them. I have been in a slump lately and these two teams have contributed to my 1-5 record this week so take these picks with a grain of salt. I like the Sparks and the over. I still have Washington ranked lower than the oddsmakers and I think this is a bad spot for them. The Mystics were only a 2.5 favorite against Indiana 2 weeks ago and now they are laying 6 against LA. Not the best game but I need to get a win sometime.

Yesterday was another loss as Atlanta imploded in the 4th quarter, moving me into the red for the season.

Last night 0-1
Season 25-23


RP



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PostPosted: 06/11/21 11:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Going with a teaser again, but at half the bet size. Seattle -5 and Dallas +7.5.


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