RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

Opening Day

Favorite -- Underdog

Indiana 2 @New York Total 160.5
Connecticut 3 @Atlanta 163
@Minnesota 1 Phoenix 163.5
@Los Angeles 5 Dallas 165

The first day is usually about the changes in personnel from last season as well as players who have not yet reported. It is also when you can see the pace of play for teams.

I am high on the Liberty to make the playoffs this season, but without Natasha Howard this becomes a tough matchup. The key here is that Sabrina Ionescu is back. The Liberty were the lowest scoring team last season by far averaging less than 72 points per game, the only team below 80, but in the 3 games with Ionescu the team averaged 76 points. Not having Howard should hurt their defense. My best bet of the day is Indiana-New York over 160.5

Atlanta looks like a mess this season. They have some good talent but their front office is all new and primarily absentee and their coach left for Baylor just 2 weeks ago. And now Cheyenne Parker has Covid. On the other hand Connecticut is without Alyssa Thomas, perhaps the most underrated player in the WNBA. I see this game as the Dream trying to keep up with the Joneses (Jonquel, Brionna and Stephanie. I will take the Sun -3 as a small play.

Minnesota and Phoenix have a long rivalry and Fowles vs. Griner is always compelling. The Lynx have won 20 of the last 22 matchups but are without Napheesa Collier. I expect Griner to play very well at the start of this season so I will go against the trend I like the Mercury to reverse the trend. Phoenix +1 is a small play. I will also take the under. Griner vs Fowles didn't happen in 2020, but in the 3 games in 2019 the totals were 114, 137 and 152.

Los Angeles has been led by Candace Parker for the past 13 years but this is a different team. No Parker and No Gray means no championship but there is still quite a bit of talent. Dallas has talent also, but it is all green. They also don't have Sabally or Kuier. Ogunbowale has the flair needed for LA, but I don't think she is enough. I will take LA -5.

[calbearman76]

May 15

Chicago 1.5 Washington 165.5
@Seattle 2.5 Las Vegas 166.5

Today the top 2 teams in each conference square off. The Sky have added Candace Parker to an already solid team. Based on the Sparks' play last night she was really missed. My question is whether the Sky will continue to run the court or will the old lady slow them down. I am not as high on the Sky as some people but I am intrigued. Tina Charles will make her debut for the Mystics but they won't have Delle Donne or their offseason pickup, Alysha Clark. This will likely cause Washington to try to play more half court, deliberate offense. I will take Candace to get the better of Tina and lay the points with the Sky as a small play.

The second game features the two best teams in the WNBA. The Storm open up their title defense at home, sort of, because they have to play in Everett, about 25 miles north of Seattle. Gone is Natasha Howard and she will be missed as they try to defend both A'ja Wilson and Liz Cambage. Great game to watch but not a great one to bet. I will make a small play on the Aces +2.

Last night the season got off about as well as I could hope. My best bet was an easy winner as Sabrina Ionescu led the Liberty to a big offensive output and the game sailed over by 17 points. My other total also won easily? as the Mercury and Lynx played much more deliberate. It was 33-24 at the half, but I still had to sweat it out because of a 53 point 3rd quarter. Fortunately the game didn't go to overtime and the game stayed under by 13 points. Connecticut and Phoenix were also winners but the Sparks looked awful after the first quarter and the Wings looked better than I expected.

Last night 4-1
Season 4-1

[calbearman76]

May 16

@Indiana 4 New York 164.5
@Connecticut 1.5 Phoenix 163

My best bet opening night was the Liberty-Fever over and it won easily. The oddsmakers noticed and increased the total by 4.5 points. Not enough. I still like the over as a best bet. As for the game, Indiana went from a 2 point favorite on the road to a 4 point favorite at home. That is about a 4 point adjustment towards New York given a 3 point home court advantage. I'll make a small play on the Fever based on their dominance of the offensive boards on Friday.

The Sun won easily against Atlanta while the Mercury had to pull one out with a Taurasi 3 with 1.1 seconds to go and the clock stopped. Jonquel Jones scored 30 on Friday but now she has to play Britney Griner. The situation favors the home team but I just think Phoenix is better. A small play on the Mercury.

Yesterday I split 2 games as Chicago won easily and Las Vegas did not.

Yesterday 1-1
Season 5-2

[calbearman76]

May 18

Minnesota 5 @New York 157.5
Phoenix 3 @ Washington 163
Las Vegas PK @Seattle 167.5

No Commissioner's Cup games today as there are 2 non-conference games and one rematch. I am not factoring that into my wagering consideration, but if I lose I will blame it.

New York looked good against a terrible Indiana team. Now they have to step up in class. I like the Liberty just enough to take them to at least put up a good effort so I will take the points as a small play. My preference is the over but not quite enough to take the over. And a quick point on the totals, the number of offensive fouls has seemed very high this season, enough so that I may look at those calls further by referred. I think there may be an edge but it takes some work to get the data.

Washington looked bad in its opener. I will stick with Phoenix to bounce back from their loss to the Sun. Take the Mercury and lay the points.

Las Vegas and Seattle are the two best teams but the Aces haven't figured out how to come together with Gray at the point. I don't see the Aces as an 0-2 team but I will wait to see them come together before I take them again. PASS

Sunday I gave up my profits from Friday as neither Indiana nor New York could hit a shot after the first quarter and the refs fell in love with offensive fouls.

Sunday 0-3
Season 5-5

[calbearman76]

May 19

Chicago 6 @Atlanta 163.5
@Connecticut 6.5 Indiana 161

I have Atlanta and Indiana as by far the two worst teams and I am looking to bet against them every game. They play on Friday but for today I can bet against both and I will. I'll lay the points with both Chicago and Connecticut.

Yesterday New York and Phoenix both came through last night to put me back in the black for the year. Sabrina Ionescu is amazing.

Last night 2-0
Season 7-5

[calbearman76]

With a 20 point lead at the half I wasn't supposed to have to sweat out the win at Atlanta. As it is, thanks to Diamond Deshields for the "meaningless" steal in the last 7 seconds.

[calbearman76]

May 20

Seattle 5.5 @Minnesota 164.5

I have Seattle as the second best team in the league, but I think their home win against Las Vegas may have served to have the odds makers overrate them. Minnesota lost to old rival Phoenix and upstart New York but I still have them as a top half team. 5.5 seems too generous so I'll take the Lynx.

Yesterday 2-0
Season 9-5.

[calbearman76]

May 21

@Indiana 2.5 Atlanta 162.5
@Washington 2.5 New York 158.5
@Phoenix 3 Connecticut 161.5
@Las Vegas 7.5 Los Angeles 169.5

All the home teams are favored, the first three by an amount close to the home court advantage so this could be a competitive day. I have tried to talk myself into taking Atlanta because I really believe Indiana is the worst team, but this may be the Fever's best chance for a win all season. I will take the under just because. My reason says it all.

New York has already surpassed last years win total. I will stick with them against a weak Mystics team.

Phoenix lost to Connecticut in their second game. I believe they will get revenge here and cover the small number.

Las Vegas is the best team in the league. Los Angeles looked dismal in its loss to Dallas. I saw Cambage on TV and she looked happy and excited about playing in Las Vegas. Everything points to the Aces but I don't think it is that easy. My gut has kept me off a lot of winners and this could be another but I will pass on the game.


Last night was a brutal loss. Up 19 with an underdog should be safe but Minnesota totally fell apart. Seattle scored 37 in a 4th quarter that included a 17-0 run. The Lynx need Napheesa Collier.

Last night 0-1
Season 9-6

[calbearman76]

Interesting story on a new partner for the WNBA

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/21/wnba-pointsbet-strike-sports-betting-partnership.html

[ClayK]

This is more good stuff from Engelbert. Gambling is a huge part of sports fandom, and the more gambling on the WNBA, the better for the league.

_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[Richyyy]

[calbearman76]

May 22

Seattle 7 @Dallas 169

Seattle bumbled and stumbled for 3 quarters in its first road game at Minnesota, but a 37 point outburst in the 4th quarter had them win going away. Dallas impressed in its opener against LA. I will take the Wings as I believe that Seattle isn't interested in burying the Wings, just beating them. Take the points.

Last night I went 1-2 due to a lucky win. Atlanta led 82-79 with over a minute to go. Indiana got a stop and then trailing by 3 used the entire shot clock with Mitchell throwing up a prayer as the shot clock went off. The shot failed to draw iron. Atlanta then fouled Chennedy Carter, an 84% FT shooter but she made only 1 of 2 with 4 seconds to go. Indiana then turned it over and the game stayed under by 1/2 point.

Last night. 1-2
Season 10-8

[calbearman76]

May 23

Washington 2 @Indiana 163
@Chicago 5.5 New York 164
@Las Vegas 4.5 Connecticut 162.5

Indiana looked less bad their last time out. Tina Charles scored 34, but was that something she saved for her former team. I will continue to ride the "whoever plays the Fever" train and take the Mystics.

The Liberty were exposed a bit last game and now they have to play a good Sky team. Chicago should have Candace Parker backand she should have a big game against the interior defense of New York. I'll take the Sky and I will also take the Over.

Las Vegas and Connecticut are 2 of the 3 best teams so far (along with Seattle) so this should be a great game. I will take the homestanding Aces to beat the Sun and cover the 4.5.

Last night the Wings played very well and could have beaten Seattle outright but still covered in OT.

Last night 1-0
Season 11-8

[huskiemaniac]

I like LV a lot today.

[huskiemaniac]

[root_thing]

The underdogs won all three games.

_________________
You can always do something else.

[calbearman76]

May 24

@New York 1.5 Dallas 165

Two vastly improved teams meet a day early due to the Nets playing on Tuesday night. No side but I will take the over tonight.

Sunday was not good ... again. My logic for Chicago was spot on, except that Candace Parker didn't play and Natasha Howard did. As for Connecticut, they are better than I believed and I will have to adjust them upward again.

Yesterday 1-3
Season 12-11
Season (excluding Sundays) 11-5

[calbearman76]

May 25

Washington 2 @Indiana 162.5
@Chicago 6.5 Atlanta 167
@Seattle 3.5 Connecticut 163.5

No plays today as I am traveling and didn't get a chance to look at them.

Last night 1-0
Season 13-11

[calbearman76]

May 26

Las Vegas 6 @Phoenix 167

Back to the grind. Las Vegas will be trying to bounce back from their loss to Connecticut on Sunday. Phoenix will be learning to play without Diana Taurasi. Several books have not put the game on the board or have low limits. I'm not sure that Taurasi is really helping Phoenix much this season. I really lean toward Las Vegas and the over but I will pass.

[calbearman76]

From my time in Las Vegas I can say that the WNBA is still not attracting much action. TV space is rarely allocated for the WNBA. The city in general is all about the Golden Knights and the Raiders but not much on the Aces. I suppose this isn't much different from other cities. On the other hand the coverage both on TV and in the newspaper was quite good.

[CamrnCrz1974]

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

May 27

@Dallas 1 Atlanta 167

This is a good game to jump back in on. Dallas looks like a much better team this season. Atlanta has a good backcourt but despite their 2 game winning streak still looks like a struggling team. This also appears to be a game where both teams want to run. I will take the Wings and the over.

[calbearman76]

May 28

@Connecticut 7.5 Washington 156
@Chicago 4 Los Angeles 170
@Seattle 6 Minnesota 166
@ Las Vegas 11 Indiana 166.5

Four home favorites today. Connecticut has been the best team so far this season. Their frontcourt of Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones and DeWonna Bonner has been tremendous, scoring more than 50 points per game while shooting 50% from the floor and 49% from beyond the arc. Tina Charles has been great for the Mystics averaging a league high 26.2 points per game and scoring at least 30 3 games in a row. Those games were against New York and Indiana twice, teams with weak interior defenses. I believe the Sun can hold down Charles which will leave the Mystics struggling to find points. I'll take the Sun.

Chicago was expected to win the East this season based on their acquisition of Candace Parker. Unfortunately Parker got injured in their first game and hasn't been seen since. The Sparks have only played twice and have lost by 23 and 28 points. I lean to the Sky, but without Parker I will pass.

Seattle used a 37 point outburst in the 4th quarter to come from behind to beat Minnesota in their first game. the Storm were a 5.5 point favorite in the Twin Cities and now they are only 6 at home. The Lynx have yet to win but today they have Napheesa Collier returning. I don't think that is enough so I will take the Storm.

Las Vegas is the best team, Indiana is the worst. And Bernadett Hatar suffered an ankle injury which leaves her questionable tonight. Even laying 11 I will take the Aces.

Last night the Dream and the Wings played no defense, but the Wings decided not to rebound either. Atlanta shot 48% and adjusting for their 14 offensive rebounds shot an effective 59%. The game flew over the total but the Wings loss left me 1-1 for the night.

Last night 1-1
Season 14-12

[RP]

Been a great week (and season) so far--Dream Tuesday, Aces Wednesday and Sparks Friday. I like the Dream +155 today.