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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 09/25/20 10:40 am ::: Vulnerable Republican senate seats |
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Unfortunately Mitch McConnell doesn’t appear to be one of the vulnerable ones, but if the Democrats can flip the Senate, at least he becomes much less relevant.
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_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 09/25/20 11:37 am ::: |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/25/20 12:37 pm ::: |
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The Democrats will take Gardner's seat in Colorado and lose Jones' in Alabama.
I'd rate seven of the others as winnable by either side; six Republican and one Democratic.
Gary Peters (Michigan) is the only other Democrat in danger. He's been steadily losing ground to Iraq War veteran John James.
The other endangered Republicans are Susan Collins (Maine), Steve Daines (Montana), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Martha McSally (Arizona), David Perdue (Georgia), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina).
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Shades
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Posted: 09/26/20 2:43 am ::: |
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_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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Silky Johnson
Joined: 29 Sep 2014 Posts: 3323
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 10/08/20 10:25 am ::: |
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_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/08/20 10:54 am ::: |
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RCP moved McSally's seat to Lean D and Graham's to tossup
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5160 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 10/10/20 9:07 pm ::: |
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I see the two key races as Ernst in Iowa and Tillis in North Carolina. Others could change if there is a general shift in the next 3 weeks, but most likely those will provide the answer. If either party gets both they should control the Senate.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 10/30/20 9:45 am ::: |
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_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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Shades
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Posted: 11/06/20 2:18 pm ::: |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 11/06/20 3:08 pm ::: |
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The Dems got slaughtered in the congressional races and did little to nothing in the senate
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 11/10/20 6:52 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
The Dems got slaughtered in the congressional races and did little to nothing in the senate |
As of Tuesday morning, the Democrats had lost a net of four seats to the Republicans. Nowhere near a slaugther (1994 was a slaughter), but the Democrats did not build on the party's majority (and it was expected that the party would gain 5-10 seats).
As for the Senate, one way to look at it is this. Right now, Republicans have 49 seats, with Democrats at 46, and Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats at 2). Alaska would put the Republicans at 50. And lets say there is a split in the Georgia runoff elections.
So it would look like this (in my scenario):
Republicans: 51
Democrats 47:
Independents: 2
It is a vastly different scenario if, say, Collins had lost Maine and McSally had won Arizona. Whereas there is a chance for people to cross party lines - Collins (ME) and Murkowski (AK) come to mind, while others (e.g., Romney (UT)) may do so depending on the issue - it would have been very different with McSally as part of the 51 instead of Collins.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 11/10/20 8:38 pm ::: |
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AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.
As for the senate, I'll be surprised if the GOP doesn't win both the run-offs. I'd rate Warnock's chances as slim and Ossoff's as none.
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Shades
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Posted: 11/19/20 12:01 pm ::: |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9663
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Posted: 11/19/20 5:48 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
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Robert Reich is a great example of the modern Democratic elite. Their position on American workers is essentially the same as the Republican elite - “fuck ‘em” but they add sanctimonious rhetoric that isn’t backed up by policy. When he was Clinton’s Secretary of LABOR he was presented with an approved H-1B (a visa allegedly only for workers who can’t be found in the USA and who allegedly must be paid prevailing wages) application for a computer programmer in which the listed wage rate was the minimum wage. Reich was not outraged at all. Just his normal Mister Rogers self, and gave a shoulder-shrug answer about the H-1B law having “no teeth”.
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Iluvacc
Joined: 11 Jun 2005 Posts: 4167
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Posted: 11/21/20 11:29 am ::: |
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As long as that grifter aka Loeffler is ousted!
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Shades
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Posted: 12/08/20 8:05 am ::: |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 12/10/20 4:49 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations. |
It's now GOP +11 (counting IA-2) with NY-22 still pending (the Republican is ahead by 12 votes, recounts coming).
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Shades
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Shades
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Posted: 01/05/21 10:51 pm ::: |
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NY Times projecting 95% chance Warnock and 83% chance Ossoff wins.
I hope it comes to fruition. McConnell loses power.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16365 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 01/05/21 11:55 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
NY Times projecting 95% chance Warnock and 83% chance Ossoff wins.
I hope it comes to fruition. McConnell loses power. |
Maybe.
Manchin says he won't vote to overturn the filibuster, so McConnell would have to lose 10 of his caucus to get something through. He has been remarkedly strong keeping his caucus together. Appointments will get through (there was no way McConnell was going to allow a single judge appt) and that's big, but hard to imagine anything of substance getting done.
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Stormeo
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Posted: 01/06/21 4:41 pm ::: |
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In the midst of today's sheer & utter madness in Capitols nationwide, Ossoff is now projected to beat Perdue in the final unresolved Senate race. Democrats are now projected by virtually all news & media outlets to gain control of the Senate. Hard to say the phrase 'gain control' these days, though...
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9663
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Posted: 01/07/21 12:36 am ::: |
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Now the fight moves to inside the Democratic party on whether their policies will make the Democratic donor class, or Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez more pleased by the Biden presidential term.
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 01/07/21 4:30 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.
As for the senate, I'll be surprised if the GOP doesn't win both the run-offs. I'd rate Warnock's chances as slim and Ossoff's as none. |
And yet, both Warnock and Ossoff won, solidifying the 50-50 tie, with VP-elect Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.
Democrats have a net gain of 3 Senate seats from the 2020 election.
I still disagree with your assessment that this was "pretty bad". Was it disappointing? Yes. Pretty bad? No.
The FiveThirtyEight model ran 40,000 simulations. The model showed Democrats with an 80 percent chance of holding between 48 and 55 seats, with an average of 51.5 seats. While 50 seats fell short of the model's average, it still means, with the wins in the two Senate runoffs in Georgia, Democrats effectively have control when President-elect Joe Biden's administration sworn in.
And Arizona and Georgia, two states that were once considered solidly Republican, both went for Joe Biden and both now have two Democratic Senators.
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