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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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 Posted: 07/14/21 11:03 pm ::: |
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
In 9 healthy or relatively healthy games . . . .
. . . . her sample of healthy games. |
I'm tempted to suggest you are cherry picking games, but I've just learned from an NYU professor that that would be an ugly personal attack, and as an NYU alum I wouldn't want to pick a fight with the faculty.
I think there's no doubt that Sabrina has had a sore ankle (tendonitis) for part or even all of the season. If Hopkins said something about playing on one leg, that was obviously hyperbole. What he is quoted as saying, just before Sabrina was benched in the 10th and 11th games, is this:
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| “I think putting a ton of load on that leg/foot/ankle/shin after, you know, a long recovery process, I think it just was a lot for body to handle,” Hopkins said before Sunday’s game in Phoenix. “We just need to get her a little rest and hopefully she’ll be back real soon.” |
Looking closely at her stats, there is no doubt that a lot of them became worse after the seventh game or 12th game (after resting for two games), whichever you pick. But her 2pt% has been consistently bad all season, and even improved after the seventh game.
It's simple to me.
Ionescu was the most elite triple threat in NCAA history, and is at least solidly above average in just about everything in the WNBA other than 2pt%, where she is an abysmal 129th out of 144. That stat simply sticks out like a gigantic sore thumb, or rotten red cherry, and demands some sort of explanation.
Other than or in addition to: sore ankle. I've tried to offer some rational additional reasons -- sometimes called filibustering in academia -- which folks can take or leave. Take your pick. |
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WNBA 09
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| Posted: 07/14/21 11:25 pm ::: |
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| Silky Johnson wrote: |
| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| One would think that Catchings would have appreciated what Laney could bring to a team at least from a defensive standpoint enough not to let her go. Clearly Nicki Collen knew what she had in Laney pretty quickly. NY’s good fortune to be able to get her as a mostly finished product. |
Yeah, but Collen also saw something in Blake Dietrick, so maybe people look at her as an Unreliable Narrator? |
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007
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| Posted: 07/14/21 11:31 pm ::: |
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I guess I just don’t get why this 2 point % is a discussion. If a player at relative health shows that she can get to the free throw line at an extremely high rate, the two point percentage is not to me indicative of future performance.
I’m at a loss at why this is a worthwhile discussion (with such a small sample of healthy games) unless one thinks it is indicative of Sabrina’s potential future performance.
Simply put, I don’t. I don’t see it as necessarily foreshadowing post-Olympic performance depending on team circumstances. And I’ve watched every second of every game except for the fourth quarter of the second Vegas away game.
Two point percentage also can vary greatly from season to season for players. Becky Hammon had great early two point numbers in her career where she barely got to the foul line. She had years where her two point percentage was under 50 where she got to the line 5 times a game. Kelsey Plum’s rookie two point percentage was .333. This year it’s .479.
Even taking the full season into account for Sabrina is still an extremely small sample size regardless of health. One not likely to represent her future. I think the reasons are mostly related to circumstance. I got told I’m cherry picking for giving those reasons. Ok then. Let’s see what the future holds.
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Silky Johnson
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| Posted: 07/15/21 12:24 am ::: |
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| WNBA 09 wrote: |
| Silky Johnson wrote: |
| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| One would think that Catchings would have appreciated what Laney could bring to a team at least from a defensive standpoint enough not to let her go. Clearly Nicki Collen knew what she had in Laney pretty quickly. NY’s good fortune to be able to get her as a mostly finished product. |
Yeah, but Collen also saw something in Blake Dietrick, so maybe people look at her as an Unreliable Narrator? |
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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| Posted: 07/15/21 12:24 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
Laney signed her last deal with the Fever on 14 February 2020 and was waived on 17 June 2020. Between those dates they signed Bernadett Hatar, Julie Allamand, and Jessica January. Hatar was suspended for the season on 28 April and January was waived on 19 May so they were already gone by the time Laney was waived.
The Fever also drafted Lauren Cox, Kathleen Doyle, and Kamiah Smalls. Smalls was also waived on 19 May. |
The Laney release happened when Stephanie Mavunga returned from her temporary suspension and they had to make room. But yeah, they also could've cut someone like Kathleen Doyle to make room.
That said, Laney was on, I believe, 90k. No one claimed her on that deal. She cleared, and then signed with Atlanta for the minimum. Lots of people liked her as a role player or backup, but essentially no one saw this player coming. |
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007
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| Posted: 07/15/21 9:02 am ::: |
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| I guess I just don’t get why this 2 point % is a discussion. |
Yeah, I don’t know why this discussion has lasted so long. Ionescu is playing injured and her career is at a very early stage. Furthermore, the Liberty offense simply doesn’t function well on a consistent basis. New York led the league in turnovers last season and they are once again leading this year. In 2020, they had 16.8 TOs per game or 1.8 more than anybody else. This year, they’re at 16.7 or 1.7 more than the next team. Sabrina was barely part of the squad last season so this is clearly systemic. New York has a spread, read and react offense. What I see is a bunch of players who don’t move when the ballhandler is either trapped or intentionally penetrates to collapse the defense. Someone needs to move to create an open passing lane. However, too often the other players simply stand and watch as the ballhandler gets swallowed up. It’s like they can’t decide if they should stay in place to fulfill their role in spreading the offense or if they should move to “read and react.” The result is that they become spectators and the ballhandler is hung out to dry. Her choices are to either force a difficult pass or force a bad shot.
So, whether Sabrina’s 2-point scoring problems are primarily due to injury, opponents adjusting, the Liberty’s sporadically functioning offensive system, or simply her own shortcomings, I don’t think we can tell at this point. Even if the bad results are solely attributable to Ionescu, she is so early in her career that we need to give her time to adjust. Again, I don’t know why there is a rush to judgment.
What actually started off this discussion was not 2-point baskets, but an observation about 2-point assisted baskets. I was finally able to navigate to that page on Basketball Reference. Yes, Ionescu is low in that category. But right below her are Chelsea Gray and Natasha Cloud. Right above her is Layshia Clarendon. In fact, out of the bottom 25 players (excluding anyone at zero), 22 play point guard as their primary or secondary position. That includes every starting PG in the league. Is this really a surprise? Point guards are responsible for creating for their teammates, but no one is really responsible for creating for them. If a PG can’t find an open teammate, there’s a good chance she’ll end up shooting. The theory and the numbers match up. So, I don’t see why Ionescu has to be singled out.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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| Posted: 07/15/21 9:13 am ::: |
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| People keep saying Ionescu is hurt, but nobody explains why she’s playing hurt. Is it the kind of injury that gets better by playing through it?
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 07/15/21 10:24 am ::: |
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| Bob Lamm wrote: |
| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| Thank you. I know I rub some people the wrong way too. It’s fine. |
You're welcome. I rub some people the wrong way everywhere. But, for me, personal attacks like this aren't fine. In the classes I teach at NYU, I insist on a line. Disagreements are fine. Passionate disagreements are fine. Students passionately disagreeing with me is fine. But personal attacks aren't.
And when this type of ugly attack comes from someone who's anonymous, I find that even worse. |
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Davis4632
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| Posted: 07/15/21 12:58 pm ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| People keep saying Ionescu is hurt, but nobody explains why she’s playing hurt. Is it the kind of injury that gets better by playing through it? |
I see that James Harden and Trae Young injuries and how they played through it is being compared to Sabrina's. Harden (grade 2 hamstring) and Young (bone bruise on foot) came back before they fully healed because they were in crucial playoff series. They wouldn't have play in the regular season with those injuries until they were fully healed. I thought the recover for Sabrina was going good as planned. She was dancing (limited movement) in Tik Tok videos with Kobe Bryant's widow and children. be probably will heal up in the states with them again this postseason because so far she's not to keen about playing overseas.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007
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| Posted: 07/15/21 1:50 pm ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| People keep saying Ionescu is hurt, but nobody explains why she’s playing hurt. Is it the kind of injury that gets better by playing through it? |
Sigh. Hopkins has explained it in his postgame pressers several times. She’s supposed to be restricted to 25 minutes. I don’t know why people are doubting us. Liberty fans don’t blindly agree with each other even when we get along really well with each other like Root and I do. We’re all saying the exact same thing because we’re all paying attention to the same information.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
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| Posted: 07/15/21 1:53 pm ::: |
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| Davis4632 wrote: |
| Shades wrote: |
| People keep saying Ionescu is hurt, but nobody explains why she’s playing hurt. Is it the kind of injury that gets better by playing through it? |
I see that James Harden and Trae Young injuries and how they played through it is being compared to Sabrina's. Harden (grade 2 hamstring) and Young (bone bruise on foot) came back before they fully healed because they were in crucial playoff series. They wouldn't have play in the regular season with those injuries until they were fully healed. I thought the recover for Sabrina was going good as planned. She was dancing (limited movement) in Tik Tok videos with Kobe Bryant's widow and children. be probably will heal up in the states with them again this postseason because so far she's not to keen about playing overseas. |
Sabrina missed two games with ankle tendinitis. It was identified as an overuse injury, related to complications coming from the original injury. She was on a 15 minute restriction when she came back. Upped to 25 since. They’ve occasionally gone slightly over, I guess depending how she feels.
It was first identified publicly by Hopkins in the game after the Atlanta game on 5/29 where she struggled badly.
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Bob Lamm
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| Posted: 07/15/21 4:45 pm ::: |
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
Sigh. |
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
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| Posted: 07/15/21 8:53 pm ::: |
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Here’s the breakdown of Sabrina’s numbers. I’d say the first 6 (along with her 3 last year) are superstar caliber. I don’t remember any player averaging over 17, 7 and 6 simultaneously.
First 6: 30-71 from the field for .423
17.8 ppg, 7.8 apg, 6.8 rpg,
5.3 ftapg, 4.2topg
The next 13: 27-91 from the field for .297
6.3 ppg, 5.2 apg, 5.2 rpg,
1.2 ftapg, 2.3 topg
And I’ve watched every second of every game except the end of one. I’m pretty sure from some of the comments, they’re coming from ppl who’ve watched the Libs sparingly at best. I know the game well enough to understand how teams defend. As she has slumped, teams have paid less defensive attention to Sabrina, not more. The horrific numbers in the last 13 games coincide exactly with repeated public comments by the coach about her physical well being. Teams adjusting to her have zero to do with it. Even the numerous 3s she’s missing, I’d say half at least have been wide open shots.
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tfan
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| Posted: 07/16/21 12:35 am ::: |
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| Shades wrote: |
| People keep saying Ionescu is hurt, but nobody explains why she’s playing hurt. Is it the kind of injury that gets better by playing through it? |
Sigh. Hopkins has explained it in his postgame pressers several times. She’s supposed to be restricted to 25 minutes. I don’t know why people are doubting us. Liberty fans don’t blindly agree with each other even when we get along really well with each other like Root and I do. We’re all saying the exact same thing because we’re all paying attention to the same information. |
I am confused. Maybe I am missing something but it appears that contradictory things are being said. On the one hand, Ionesco doesn’t have an active injury, but a limitation in minutes to prevent it from re-occurring. So Hopkins is and was OK in playing her. On the other hand, her stats have dropped off because she is playing injured.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
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| Posted: 07/16/21 11:07 am ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| Shades wrote: |
| People keep saying Ionescu is hurt, but nobody explains why she’s playing hurt. Is it the kind of injury that gets better by playing through it? |
Sigh. Hopkins has explained it in his postgame pressers several times. She’s supposed to be restricted to 25 minutes. I don’t know why people are doubting us. Liberty fans don’t blindly agree with each other even when we get along really well with each other like Root and I do. We’re all saying the exact same thing because we’re all paying attention to the same information. |
I am confused. Maybe I am missing something but it appears that contradictory things are being said. On the one hand, Ionesco doesn’t have an active injury, but a limitation in minutes to prevent it from re-occurring. So Hopkins is and was OK in playing her. On the other hand, her stats have dropped off because she is playing injured. |
I’m going to paraphrase exactly what Hopkins has said so maybe it will be clear. She has left ankle tendinitis. The tendinitis is due to overuse and is stemming from her original injury. They did not play her in preseason scrimmages. Then they played her about 35 minutes a game once the season started.
Hopkins first mentioned that her ankle was “sore” a game after the 5/29 game vs. Atlanta. Then it was identified as “left ankle tendinitis”. Then he repeated said it required rest for it to get better. Then they sat her out for two games because of it. Then she was placed on a 15 minute restriction. That grew to 25. On June 24th he said she can “kind of get by playing on one leg”.
He has also repeatedly discussed in press conferences that they are trying to balance winning with Sabrina playing through it. He has called her a “warrior”.
I’d gather she probably can’t hurt it worse by playing on it but it’s extremely painful and mobility prohibitive. I don’t think it’s an accident that she followed up her two best games in over a month with two subpar ones after the flight fiascos. It makes extreme sense that her mobility would be affected by that given her condition (it was clearly worse in her last two games).
And I mean, do the math and watch the games. The extreme decline in numbers even as defensive coverage on her has generally lessened tells you all you need to know. Numbers wouldn’t change this greatly even if defensive coverage had become more extreme anyway. Sabrina is too good a passer not to make teams pay for extreme defensive pressure. When healthy.
I’ve said just about all this already in this thread. Root has too. Bob has concurred. Not sure why we have to keep repeating it. Not directing that at you particularly. I appreciate the respectful nature of the question.
In reference to their injuries also, the truth is that 3/5 of what would have been their starting lineup has been out for all but 40 minutes of the season. Durr is the league’s only Covid long hauler. Willoughby’s Achilles makes you wonder if she will be back to the player who was described as the best player in camp and identified by Hopkins as an expected starter. Howard played every game nearly for the last 5 years. This year she’s played 40 minutes and hasn’t practiced with the team once. In the minutes she did play, not surprisingly the team averaged about 10 points higher per 40 min, though it was clearly a very small sample. Sabrina has also been hobbled for a majority of the season. I know Sami has been solid, but if Durr was healthy the Libs probably wouldn’t have traded for Sami. Thus being able to use extra salary cap space elsewhere.
I know there’s a lot of player movement and injuries around the league. But this still seems inordinately high and extreme. Thus, I think their future is really bright. They’ve been able to hold a patchwork team together and stay near .500. They’ve shown the character to win close games more often than they lose them too.
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Davis4632
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Davis4632
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| Posted: 07/16/21 11:21 am ::: |
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| DP.
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
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| Posted: 07/16/21 12:48 pm ::: |
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Lots of people here love stats. Does anyone have a stat on the most posts ever on a single topic (in my view, a narrow topic never worth much) in the history of RebKell's WNBA forum?
I acknowledge that I've been part of the problem, so I am not trying to criticize any individual who's posted here.
ENOUGH. Please. Please. There are lots of other subjects about the New York Liberty that are worthy of discussion during the Olympic break as we ponder the second half of the season and beyond.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007
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| Posted: 07/16/21 12:52 pm ::: |
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| Agreed. I’d like to think it’s clarified beyond a need for further clarification.
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Bob Lamm
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| Posted: 07/16/21 12:53 pm ::: |
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| I know there’s a lot of player movement and injuries around the league. But this still seems inordinately high and extreme. Thus, I think their future is really bright. They’ve been able to hold a patchwork team together and stay near .500. They’ve shown the character to win close games more often than they lose them too. |
I strongly agree and am very excited about the future of our team. Because there are only 11 regular-season games left, because Howard has had SO little time with the other players, because Sabrina probably won't be 100% till next season, I'm not expecting a dramatic improvement right now. But I believe there's a chance for terrific things in 2022.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
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| Posted: 07/16/21 1:11 pm ::: |
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2022 has some real potential. It’ll be interesting to see how Willoughby recovers for several reasons. Great human being, hard worker, community participant, identified as a standout by her coach in camp. To me, she’s probably the player who’ll have the greatest impact on their offseason maneuvering.
The team will have a lot of cap space and there’s some good UFAs that could fill the 4 spot that other teams probably won’t keep. So they could invest money there and go from not being deep now to being very deep next year.
Then there’s backup PG. This using JJ as the backup lead guard and/or playing Laney/Sami 35 minutes because they’re needed in the role is not desirable.
So if Johannes comes back, that fills the backup PG spot with a player who, while not a true PG, fits a lead guard role in this system extremely well because of her dual threat as an explosive passer/scorer.
If not, they have to use cap space or draft capital to fill that role. Either way, you’d expect that their available cap space, veteran nucleus and young depth should make for a powerful team. Most significantly, they’d be better equipped to handle injuries to core players. As now constructed, the gap from Howard to the bench is enormous. The gap even from what they expected from Willoughby and Onyenwere is big too. And if they lose Sabrina they don’t have another PG. Laney would be similarly irreplaceable in the event of injury. Those gaps between starters and bench should be lessened next year. Which would give you a team much better able to withstand injuries to its core than this team. If you had told me coming in that Howard would be out for all but 2 games and Sabrina would not be herself, I’d have projected them as being 3-18 or something. That’s not an excuse for injury. I’m just saying I’m surprised they’ve been able to win ten games based on their limited depth behind what they’ve lost.
Root brought this discussion up with me weeks ago about Hines-Allen being a logical candidate to sign being that DC might have trouble bringing her back and the Libs have a need for her exact skill set. I credit him with the idea and I think it makes perfect sense. She’s quick, she plays bigger than 6’2” and she’s an excellent rebounder. She also has a versatile offensive game. On paper it looks like the perfect fit and might be just what they need to get to the next level.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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| Posted: 07/16/21 1:33 pm ::: |
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| Root brought this discussion up with me weeks ago about Hines-Allen being a logical candidate to sign being that DC might have trouble bringing her back and the Libs have a need for her exact skill set. I credit him with the idea and I think it makes perfect sense. She’s quick, she plays bigger than 6’2” and she’s an excellent rebounder. She also has a versatile offensive game. On paper it looks like the perfect fit and might be just what they need to get to the next level. |
My thought a while back was Dolson, who Chicago might not have the space to keep. She's basically already what they seem to be trying to turn Shook into, only without the messy development stage. Would probably have to be available fairly cheaply for the Libs to be interested and fit her in, though. |
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Bob Lamm
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| Posted: 07/16/21 1:59 pm ::: |
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| Richyyy wrote: |
| My thought a while back was Dolson, who Chicago might not have the space to keep. She's basically already what they seem to be trying to turn Shook into, only without the messy development stage. Would probably have to be available fairly cheaply for the Libs to be interested and fit her in, though. |
Dolson is 29 1/2. Hines-Allen is 25. So that would be a factor in any decision, along with what it would take to get either player.
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Shades
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| Posted: 07/16/21 2:06 pm ::: |
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| Shook is cheap and good enough for a backup. The only reason she’s starting is because Howard is not playing. The Liberty don’t need Dolson if they didn’t need Zahui. Not many teams do need Dolson. She may be a minimum WNBA wage employee next year.
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