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tfan



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PostPosted: 05/29/22 11:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:

This is just mind boggling. The vaccine doesn’t stop transmission. That we know. And it wanes so fucking quickly that four or five months out you are… how do I say this in a scientifically correct way… you are at basically the same great risk of catching COVID as an unvaccinated person, solidly at risk of getting sick from COVID, and, if you die of COVID, you can find comfort or horror in the fact that at whatever particular time you die from COVID, nearly half the other people dying with you are also vaccinated.


The antibodies definitely wane quickly, but there is a hope/belief that T-cells will provide longer protection as well as B cells.

But we could be taking (or asked to take) an annual or even semi-annual vaccine forever. I have been holding off on my second booster just because I saw something recently (again) about a slight chance of myocarditis from the mRNA vaccines. But this article only mentions children and young adults as being of concern. There was also something (talked about by YouTuber Dr John Campbell) about the mRNA manufacturers saying vaccine providers needed to check that the vaccine needle didn't go directly into a vein before continuing, but the CDC told providers not to check for it (which involves pulling back on the plunger after insertion), which also concerns me a little with regard to getting one every year or twice a year.

Early on, William Haseltine said he had more hope on COVID-19 treatments than a vaccine since our bodies had never built up long term immunity to the four coronaviruses that had been circulating for decades that cause the common cold. They even did an experiment where they infected people with a cold coronavirus, saved some of it for a year, and re-infected the subjects to see if they got it again or had built up immunity. They got it again.




Last edited by tfan on 05/30/22 7:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 05/30/22 10:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The CDC just published a new study this week that suggests 20% of people who get COVID will develop long COVID.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7121e1.htm?s_cid=mm7121e1_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM82414&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR%20Early%20Release%20-%20Vol.%2071%2C%20May%2024%2C%202022&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM82414#contribAff


toad455



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PostPosted: 07/13/22 5:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/white-house-urges-caution-covid-variants-pushes-boosters-86666267

Quote:
Walensky said the U.S. has seen a doubling in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 since April, reflecting the spread of the new subvariants, though deaths remain steady around 300 per day.



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 07/13/22 7:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/white-house-urges-caution-covid-variants-pushes-boosters-86666267

Quote:
Walensky said the U.S. has seen a doubling in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 since April, reflecting the spread of the new subvariants, though deaths remain steady around 300 per day.


I haven't been paying much attention to this lately. I knew that cases were increasing, but I didn't realize that there were 300 dying per day!!!! Damn!!

I have a co-worker who is currently off work because of a positive test. I know it's his second time missing work, but it might be his third time.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 08/01/22 12:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:


I haven't been paying much attention to this lately. I knew that cases were increasing, but I didn't realize that there were 300 dying per day!!!! Damn!!.


I was reading an article in the Wall Street Journal today about how COVID-19 has negatively impacted the health of Americans beyond the symptoms of the disease itself because "people missed screenings, abandoned routines and experienced loss and isolation". And in the article I was surprised to see them say that over one million people have died from it in the USA and they say 350 people are dying a day.

But if you look at a graph of USA cases and deaths they are below what I would expect. This BA.5 variant is good at getting around the vaccine and is very contagious. While at the same time most people going around without masks, including to basketball games. So it seems like we must have more immunity from past infections and vaccinations than they mention when talking about BA.5. Such as Omicron BA.5 strain may shorten COVID immunity from 3 months to 28 days, research shows.

Quote:
How much less? A committee of Australian doctors are changing recommendations to reduce the definition of immunity from 90 days to 28 days.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 2:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:


I haven't been paying much attention to this lately. I knew that cases were increasing, but I didn't realize that there were 300 dying per day!!!! Damn!!.


I was reading an article in the Wall Street Journal today about how COVID-19 has negatively impacted the health of Americans beyond the symptoms of the disease itself because "people missed screenings, abandoned routines and experienced loss and isolation". And in the article I was surprised to see them say that over one million people have died from it in the USA and they say 350 people are dying a day.

But if you look at a graph of USA cases and deaths they are below what I would expect. This BA.5 variant is good at getting around the vaccine and is very contagious. While at the same time most people going around without masks, including to basketball games. So it seems like we must have more immunity from past infections and vaccinations than they mention when talking about BA.5. Such as Omicron BA.5 strain may shorten COVID immunity from 3 months to 28 days, research shows.

Quote:
How much less? A committee of Australian doctors are changing recommendations to reduce the definition of immunity from 90 days to 28 days.


Uhh, no. We have less immunity to BA.5 after prior infections and/or immunizations than we did to previous variants due to new mutations on the spike protein which help the virus evade existing antibodies. Case counts are artificially low due to the proliferation of home tests, whose positive results frequently aren't reflected in state public health figures. Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


Howee



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 5:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
... Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


Huh?? Shocked

I recently heard that there was polio detected in NYC sewage. How in hell is that *thing*??



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tfan



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 7:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:

Uhh, no. We have less immunity to BA.5 after prior infections and/or immunizations than we did to previous variants due to new mutations on the spike protein which help the virus evade existing antibodies. Case counts are artificially low due to the proliferation of home tests, whose positive results frequently aren't reflected in state public health figures. Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


I wasn't saying we have more immunity to BA.5 than previous versions. I am saying that we appear to have more immunity to BA.5 than they claim. It hasn't caused the same massive spike that Omicron did. Even if cases are underreported from home testing, deaths are much lower now than during the Delta or Omicron waves. Unless I missed that BA.5 is a much milder variant.




Last edited by tfan on 08/02/22 8:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 8:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:

Uhh, no. We have less immunity to BA.5 after prior infections and/or immunizations than we did to previous variants due to new mutations on the spike protein which help the virus evade existing antibodies. Case counts are artificially low due to the proliferation of home tests, whose positive results frequently aren't reflected in state public health figures. Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


I wasn't saying we have more immunity to BA.5 that previous versions. I am saying that we appear to have more immunity to BA.5 than they claim. It hasn't caused the same massive spike that Omicron did. They don't seem to track hospitalizations, but deaths are much lower now than during the Delta or Omicron waves. Maybe BA.5 is much milder, bubI haven't seen that.


"Omicron" includes BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5, and usually causes less severe disease than previous variants. It's difficult to accurately compare the size of this spike to previous because the testing parameters have shifted to home tests whose results frequently go unreported. Sewage studies are consistent with many uncounted positive tests.


tfan



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 8:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
tfan wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:

Uhh, no. We have less immunity to BA.5 after prior infections and/or immunizations than we did to previous variants due to new mutations on the spike protein which help the virus evade existing antibodies. Case counts are artificially low due to the proliferation of home tests, whose positive results frequently aren't reflected in state public health figures. Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


I wasn't saying we have more immunity to BA.5 that previous versions. I am saying that we appear to have more immunity to BA.5 than they claim. It hasn't caused the same massive spike that Omicron did. They don't seem to track hospitalizations, but deaths are much lower now than during the Delta or Omicron waves. Maybe BA.5 is much milder, bubI haven't seen that.


"Omicron" includes BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5, and usually causes less severe disease than previous variants. It's difficult to accurately compare the size of this spike to previous because the testing parameters have shifted to home tests whose results frequently go unreported. Sewage studies are consistent with many uncounted positive tests.


When I said Omicron I was referring to the original BA.1. That not only caused a massive spike in cases last January but also a related spike in deaths . The deaths were much higher than what we are seeing now. What is the explanation for that? There is a difference in time of year, but don't know that that covers what is a significant difference.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/




Last edited by tfan on 08/02/22 8:27 pm; edited 2 times in total
FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 8:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
... Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


Huh?? Shocked

I recently heard that there was polio detected in NYC sewage. How in hell is that *thing*??


Yes. Polio has remained endemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan but was thought to be eradicated from the rest of the world. However, in the past couple of years, it's resurfaced in Mozambique, Malawi, the UK, and this NYC case. The African cases were genetically traced back to strains in the endemic areas, and sewage studies have linked the strains in the UK, US, and Israel. These are pretty good articles on the subject, including the role of vaccines made with attenuated viruses.
https://www.propublica.org/article/polio-virus-us-new-york-vaccine
https://www.propublica.org/article/polio-london-jerusalem-new-york


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 8:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
tfan wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:

Uhh, no. We have less immunity to BA.5 after prior infections and/or immunizations than we did to previous variants due to new mutations on the spike protein which help the virus evade existing antibodies. Case counts are artificially low due to the proliferation of home tests, whose positive results frequently aren't reflected in state public health figures. Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


I wasn't saying we have more immunity to BA.5 that previous versions. I am saying that we appear to have more immunity to BA.5 than they claim. It hasn't caused the same massive spike that Omicron did. They don't seem to track hospitalizations, but deaths are much lower now than during the Delta or Omicron waves. Maybe BA.5 is much milder, bubI haven't seen that.


"Omicron" includes BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5, and usually causes less severe disease than previous variants. It's difficult to accurately compare the size of this spike to previous because the testing parameters have shifted to home tests whose results frequently go unreported. Sewage studies are consistent with many uncounted positive tests.


When I said Omicron I was referring to the original BA.1. That not only caused a massive spike in cases last January and a related spike in deaths . The deaths were much higher than what we are seeing now. What is the explanation for that? There is a difference in time of year, but don't know that that covers what is a significant difference in deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


The spike last winter produced a very large number of cases. Even though the death rate was lower than that of the Delta variant, the number of deaths was still high due to high number of cases. The BA.5 variant is more transmissible but is producing less severe disease.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 08/02/22 11:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
... Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


Huh?? Shocked

I recently heard that there was polio detected in NYC sewage. How in hell is that *thing*??


Yes. Polio has remained endemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan but was thought to be eradicated from the rest of the world.


I'm not sure, maybe you missed my point: I mean, HOW is it possible to detect viruses of various strains in sewage??? Shocked



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Queenie



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PostPosted: 08/02/22 11:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
... Sewage surveillance studies reflect a new surge significantly greater than the numbers of new cases actually being reported.


Huh?? Shocked

I recently heard that there was polio detected in NYC sewage. How in hell is that *thing*??


Yes. Polio has remained endemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan but was thought to be eradicated from the rest of the world.


I'm not sure, maybe you missed my point: I mean, HOW is it possible to detect viruses of various strains in sewage??? Shocked


It’s got rather a lot of bodily fluids in it, doesn’t it? And I can’t be the only person who, when dealing with exceptional amounts of respiratory nastiness, horks up wads of phlegm into the toilet, can I?



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Howee



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PostPosted: 08/03/22 8:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Okay, I'll rephrase. Razz

There's no mystery as to how viral material may end up in sewage. But - being very different in nature from things like certain bacteria or algae, for instance, that can flourish in sewage - I'd think viral entities could not. AND, if they did, HOW are they detected, being such elusive little buggers?

Well, I've introduced my archaic knowledge from an ancient Minor in Biology to google. Lo and behold, there are numerous viruses that can live in sewage. Given their reproductive mechanisms, I'm amazed that's possible. I'm even more amazed at how these uber-microscopic things can be detected!



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tfan



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PostPosted: 08/03/22 12:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:


The spike last winter produced a very large number of cases. Even though the death rate was lower than that of the Delta variant, the number of deaths was still high due to high number of cases. The BA.5 variant is more transmissible but is producing less severe disease.


I saw that someone posted a graph based on sewage data on Twitter last fall, but I can't find where there is current data showing the extrapolated trend in COVID-19 infections based on sewage data.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/03/22 1:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Okay, I'll rephrase. Razz

There's no mystery as to how viral material may end up in sewage. But - being very different in nature from things like certain bacteria or algae, for instance, that can flourish in sewage - I'd think viral entities could not. AND, if they did, HOW are they detected, being such elusive little buggers?

Well, I've introduced my archaic knowledge from an ancient Minor in Biology to google. Lo and behold, there are numerous viruses that can live in sewage. Given their reproductive mechanisms, I'm amazed that's possible. I'm even more amazed at how these uber-microscopic things can be detected!


Whether a virus is even alive has been a subject of debate for a long time. It's basically DNA or RNA enclosed in some fat and proteins, and it doesn't display many of the characteristics we think of as belonging to living organisms, like having cells, using energy, reproducing itself, etc. It just hijacks host cells to do those things. So it doesn't need to "live" in water or sewage, but the DNA/RNA that it's carrying needs to survive so it can be isolated, amplified, and sequenced for environmental DNA testing. eDNA is really one of the hot new fields in Biology and has proven to be invaluable in monitoring biodiversity, managing wildlife, checking for invasive species, etc. in ecological systems, all from the DNA/RNA in shed skin or mucosal cells, feces, urine, or hair.

Since COVID, the CDC has set up a sewage surveillance system to monitor for COVID, and it's also been used for monkeypox.

https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/surveillance/wastewater-surveillance/wastewater-surveillance.html


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 08/04/22 3:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How concerned about Covid are folks where you live? It's extremely diminished in everyday news stories.

In June, my wife and I got brave enough to leave the house on an overnight trip after 2½ years, and drove from Connecticut to Florida and back over two weeks. Except for some masks in a pharmacy in the NYC area, we didn't see any masking, social distancing or even any talk about Covid anywhere we stayed, ate, or visited.
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PostPosted: 08/04/22 4:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
How concerned about Covid are folks where you live? It's extremely diminished in everyday news stories.

In June, my wife and I got brave enough to leave the house on an overnight trip after 2½ years, and drove from Connecticut to Florida and back over two weeks. Except for some masks in a pharmacy in the NYC area, we didn't see any masking, social distancing or even any talk about Covid anywhere we stayed, ate, or visited.


I would say most people are completely unconcerned. Masks are only required in healthcare facilities here, and 10% (or less) of people elsewhere, usually the elderly, are wearing them. "It's just a cold." I'm immunocompromised and can't be so cavalier, so I wear an N95 everywhere and get really irritated when some maskless person comes up and coughs in my face.

The only places I've been in the past 2 1/2 years are medical appts and the grocery store. More recently I've gone out to get my hair cut, but the salon's business took a big pandemic hit, so I'm often the only client there and they require everyone be masked because the owner is undergoing cancer treatment. I have to go to Calif in Sept/Oct and I don't see how I can manage that safely.


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 08/04/22 4:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
I have to go to Calif in Sept/Oct and I don't see how I can manage that safely.


I assume you would have to go by plane.

I watched a video the other day of what seemed like a legitimately non-partisan doctor analyzing a small study that was about whether one needed to mask on an airplane that has HEPA-filtered air.

While HEPA filters indeed scrub out almost all traces of virus, the airflow out of the filter usually circles through the cabin from the top of the windows or the overhead storage compartments to the floor under the windows. If an infected person is on the plane, you can catch aerosolized virus if you are downstream of him in the circular air flow. The people who were within two rows of the infected person and who were not wearing masks showed a higher incidence of infection themselves when the entire plane was contact traced.

So, from this small study, the doc suggests wearing a mask and sitting in an aisle seat (as much upstream as possible) if you go on a plane. I'm not much concerned about getting the virus with four shots, but at age 77 I'd certainly wear an N95 mask on an airplane.
tfan



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PostPosted: 08/26/22 12:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I would bet most people, including myself, feel that while being vaccinated and boosted (as I am) will not prevent infection, but will largely keep you out of the hospital (there is also the issue of long COVID). At least I assume that is why I see basketball stands full of unmasked people. But this article says:

Quote:
Almost 40%of people hospitalized in the US with the Covid subvariant that circulated this spring were vaccinated and boosted, highlighting how new strains have mutated to more readily escape the immunity offered by current shots


That shows (if we assume similar behavior of both groups even though there is likely a difference) that the vaccine does provide protection. But hopefully the new "Omicron tailored" vaccines can lower that "vaccinated, boosted and hospitalized) figure. Although they will be BA.1 tailored boosters and not the BA.5 that is currently dominant.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/omicron-s-mutations-impaired-vaccine-effectiveness-cdc-says/ar-AA115Zc0


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/26/22 7:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I would bet most people, including myself, feel that while being vaccinated and boosted (as I am) will not prevent infection, but will largely keep you out of the hospital (there is also the issue of long COVID). At least I assume that is why I see basketball stands full of unmasked people. But this article says:

Quote:
Almost 40%of people hospitalized in the US with the Covid subvariant that circulated this spring were vaccinated and boosted, highlighting how new strains have mutated to more readily escape the immunity offered by current shots


That shows (if we assume similar behavior of both groups even though there is likely a difference) that the vaccine does provide protection. But hopefully the new "Omicron tailored" vaccines can lower that "vaccinated, boosted and hospitalized) figure. Although they will be BA.1 tailored boosters and not the BA.5 that is currently dominant.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/omicron-s-mutations-impaired-vaccine-effectiveness-cdc-says/ar-AA115Zc0


Uhh, no. The latest vaccines will be boosters that are directed against BA.4 and BA.5. From your own linked article...
Quote:
US regulators have pushed Moderna Inc., Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE to expedite development of omicron-specific boosters for a September rollout. The drugmakers this week submitted early data to the US Food and Drug Administration seeking emergency clearance for updated shots that target the BA.4 and BA.5 virus strains. Scientists and vaccinemakers are already beginning to look toward next-generation shots that may provide longer-lasting protection against more variants.


Howee



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PostPosted: 08/26/22 8:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
The only places I've been in the past 2 1/2 years are medical appts and the grocery store. More recently I've gone out to get my hair cut, but the salon's business took a big pandemic hit, so I'm often the only client there and they require everyone be masked because the owner is undergoing cancer treatment. I have to go to Calif in Sept/Oct and I don't see how I can manage that safely.


You've certainly done your due diligence, if you've been that abstinent re: public outings, and I'd never try to tell anyone in your place what choices to make here. But I must admit, I'm very optimistic about resumption of 'normalcy'.

Back in March of 2020, I figured I was a dead man walking, if I contracted the virus. Between cardio and diabetic concerns, I felt pretty scared. I was as compliant as possible.

Now, 2.5 years later, I find it encouraging to have seen people with far more precarious conditions GET Covid and have it be nothing of consequence. I've seen multi-vaxxed friends get it twice, with little more than a sniffle or cough. I attribute this to the efficacy of the vaccine.

I'm sure you've consulted your doctor re: your particular situation and possible travel restrictions. Hope you get to make the trip!



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PostPosted: 08/26/22 8:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Moderna is suing Pfizer and BioNTech.

Quote:
The Cambridge, Massachusetts, company claims Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine Comirnaty infringes on patents it filed between 2010 and 2016 related to its mRNA technology, according to a Moderna news release.

“We believe that Pfizer and BioNTech unlawfully copied Moderna’s inventions, and they have continued to use them without permission,” said Moderna chief legal officer Shannon Thyme Klinger.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2022/08/26/covid-moderna-sues-pfizer-biontech-patent-infringement-mrna-vaccine/7902626001/



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 08/26/22 11:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
The only places I've been in the past 2 1/2 years are medical appts and the grocery store. More recently I've gone out to get my hair cut, but the salon's business took a big pandemic hit, so I'm often the only client there and they require everyone be masked because the owner is undergoing cancer treatment. I have to go to Calif in Sept/Oct and I don't see how I can manage that safely.


You've certainly done your due diligence, if you've been that abstinent re: public outings, and I'd never try to tell anyone in your place what choices to make here. But I must admit, I'm very optimistic about resumption of 'normalcy'.

Back in March of 2020, I figured I was a dead man walking, if I contracted the virus. Between cardio and diabetic concerns, I felt pretty scared. I was as compliant as possible.

Now, 2.5 years later, I find it encouraging to have seen people with far more precarious conditions GET Covid and have it be nothing of consequence. I've seen multi-vaxxed friends get it twice, with little more than a sniffle or cough. I attribute this to the efficacy of the vaccine.

I'm sure you've consulted your doctor re: your particular situation and possible travel restrictions. Hope you get to make the trip!


Thank you for your kind words. Someone that I know attended a family funeral with her husband a month ago, and fortunately they were fully vaccinated. There was no use of masks or any social distancing. Not only did they both get COVID, so did >30 other people that attended. He had "bad flu" symptoms, and she felt like she had a bad cold. I'm not likely to be that lucky if I get it.


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