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jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 04/27/21 6:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

From Stat:

In Covid's grip, India gasps for air: 'If there is an apocalypse, this has to be one'

MUMBAI — Working hard to keep her composure, Lavanya Sharma tweeted a short video on April 25. “Please please please help,” the teenage girl from New Delhi’s Uttam Nagar neighborhood wrote atop her post as her mother lay gasping for breath and her oximeter blinked a dangerously low reading of 52/100.

Sharma’s frantic calls for help didn’t get an official response until the next day, when an ambulance finally arrived to take her mother to the hospital.
This harrowing tale highlights the plight of millions of Indians who are being pushed to the brink by the country’s ferocious second wave of the pandemic.

I know what Sharma is going through, having seen family members and friends laid low, and even killed, by Covid-19. A neighbor, in his 60s, died while on a ventilator. A political leader who helped me get my first home in Mumbai in 1996 died two days ago from a cardiac arrest that occurred as he was getting treated for Covid-19. Everyone in my sister’s family was sickened by the infection at the same time, but they appear to have recovered. My in-law’s family had it tougher, with two sons ages 28 and 31 needing oxygen in intensive care units for several days. Others, desperately needing treatment, were unable to get into hospitals.

In cities big and small, hospitals are too full to accept new patients and diagnostic centers take up to three days or more to do chest scans of those who might have Covid-19. Doctors and hospital staff are completely exhausted.

Social media is flooded with passionate pleas for oxygen cylinders and concentrators. WhatsApp groups are filled with messages as friends and families scramble to access oxygen, remdesivir, tocilizumab, steroids, and other therapies. In a country where drug regulatory oversight is suspect, indiscriminate sale of fake drugs is a huge problem.

As someone who has covered the pharmaceutical and health care industries for more than two decades, I get calls for help into the wee hours of the night from family members, friends, and even acquaintances. Fake therapies are something I constantly worry about as I try to use my contacts to help people looking for hospital beds, medicines, or oxygen cylinders. Sometimes I’ve been able to help, but the calls are so many and the problems so big that often I cannot.

The merciless spread of Covid-19 is driving families to extreme limits. People with the means to do so are shelling out on the black market as much as 10 times the cost of a single vial of remdesivir. Others, many of whom are being pushed to bankruptcy, resign themselves to destiny.

Television stations routinely dish out painful stories of families who lost loved ones. “I have money, I have everything but I could not save my sister,” says a young person who cried inconsolably in a TV news report.

Hospitals don’t have enough beds for those seeking help, and even if they do, the shortage of oxygen is an agonizing death sentence for patients who can’t get access to it. Video clips are making the rounds showing people dying even as they are hurriedly wheeled on stretchers into hospitals.

Ambulances are being crammed with the dead — as many as 20 bodies at a time — on their way to crematoria and burial grounds. Funeral pyres glowing 24/7 are a constant reminder of the staggering death toll.

If there is an apocalypse, this has to be one.

Covid-19 is spreading at a terrifying pace, now averaging 350,000 new infections and nearly 3,000 deaths a day. As I write this, the official number of deaths is nearly 198,000.

Public health experts, however, suggest that the number of deaths could be several times higher, and possibly in the millions. They point to the glaring mismatch in deaths attributed to Covid-19 in government files and the actual number of deaths registered at crematoria and burial grounds.

The seething rage at the failure of the government and its precipitous public health catastrophe is giving way to an uneasy sense of desolation and helplessness.

India’s early success in nearly flattening the Covid-19 curve in 2020 may be the cause of the current calamity. Despite a rickety and funding-starved health care infrastructure, the country’s ability to manage the first wave of Covid-19 looked laudable as the United States, Canada, and countries in Europe reeled under second and third waves of the pandemic. Then things went awry. The turnaround raised false hopes that the virus had run out of steam in India and the country would be spared a second wave.

Virologists, modeling experts, and prominent epidemiologists appeared on TV shows to suggest that herd immunity may have kicked in, with testing in some cities showing the existence of anti-Covid antibodies in up to half of communities. Some professed that Indians have stronger-than-average immune systems, or they may be spared from Covid-19 by cross protection from other infectious diseases. A few invoked evolutionary biology and said the virus will not kill all its hosts and endanger its own existence.

Then India’s hyper-nationalism took over. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior leaders from his Bharatiya Janata Party, who thrive on overwhelming popularity, took no time to claim victory in the fight against the virus. Election rallies attracted soaring crowds. As Modi and Amit Shah, the two top leaders, brazenly took off their masks during their incessant campaigns, those in the crowds followed and dropped theirs.

Further fueling new cases was Kumbh Mela, a gargantuan confluence of Hindu pilgrims who gathered for a holy dip in the Ganges River. As many as 2.5 million people took part, with scant attention to Covid-19 safety protocols. By the time an avalanche of criticism cut short the festival, the virus had infected thousands of pilgrims, who took it home to their neighborhoods and villages.

Efforts to crank up a badly hobbled economy also added to the spread.

Business and manufacturing activities began reopening in May 2020 as ministers projected a V-shaped economic recovery while scientific messaging to keep wearing masks and follow social distancing took a beating. Masks, which had become part of public life in India for most part of 2020, gradually disappeared from faces.

As countries issue advisories suspending flight operations to and from India, the country’s dominance as a global vaccines player is in question. In January 2021, the Indian government authorized two vaccines for emergency use against Covid-19 and committed to help a host of countries vaccinate their residents. The pandemic’s second wave has dealt those plans a hard blow.

The Modi administration has expanded the scope of vaccination, now making the jabs available to anyone over age 18. While this is the right move, it has led to a shortfall of vaccines and slowed the pace of the vaccination drive. While vaccines are seen as the most effective intervention to cut the spread of the virus, there are now serious doubts on how efficiently can India roll out its program.

In 2002, India unveiled “Incredible India,” a high-octane advertising campaign aimed at drawing international tourists to the country of contrasts, cultures, palaces, and forests. Though the campaign remains, it is now overshadowed by the putrid smoke pouring from funeral pyres, the gasps for breath of those afflicted with Covid-19, and the cries of the millions of family members and friends who have lost loved ones to a pandemic wave that could have been prevented.

Unless we get out of this soon, I fear that we will be left with “Incompetent India” — or worse.

Vikas Dandekar is a senior pharmaceutical and health care journalist with ET Prime, an India-based website for analytical and investigative business stories.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13622
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 04/27/21 7:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Indian saga is one I've been following on the news. Hellacious. And it was only a few weeks ago that India and Africa seemed to be only lightly hit by the virus. How drastically things can change!



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Ex-Ref



Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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PostPosted: 05/06/21 8:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shocked Shocked
Quote:
The researchers behind a key coronavirus projection now estimate the COVID-19 pandemic has actually caused 6.9 million deaths worldwide, more than double what official numbers show


https://www.wthr.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/new-analysis-projecting-covid-deaths-double-official-count-ihme/507-98ca9b09-3a0e-443c-beef-67d78415d5e7



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"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"If this guy can be Senator, you can do anything." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: 05/08/21 11:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
The Indian saga is one I've been following on the news. Hellacious.


As of today, India is 110th in the world at 174 deaths per million population. This compares to the world average of 422 deaths per million, the USA at 1789, and the world leader Hungary at 2957. Similarly, India is currently 111th in the world in cases per million population.

India is currently suffering a surge, which seems to be nearing a typical Farr's Law peak, but overall has been hit lightly for cases and deaths on a per capita basis. Mainstream media, especially in the U.S., always cherry pick for their headlines the most currently fear porn Covid stats in the world or U.S., which should be evaluated in the context of multiple statistics and temporal trends.

But, yes, the Farr's Law curve would indicate that things will get worse in India before they get better.

South Africa is currently at just about its lowest level of cases and deaths per day since the early days of its epidemic, way at the tail end of its Farr curve.

Edited to correct current figures.


Last edited by GlennMacGrady on 05/08/21 1:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 05/08/21 12:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hmm.

Borders and countries are artificial man-made constructs. So the name/country India with over a billion people has associated with it a ranking of 110th world wide with a mere 24 deaths per million.

But somewhere where the map says is India right now near 400K people a day are testing positive for COVID and there’s a ridiculously threadbare healthcare system completely broken by the hoards of sick and dying, unable to supply beds and oxygen, and then barely able to keep up with the disposal of the dead bodies.

I mean, that’s all really happening. I think this may be one of the best examples of statistics being misleading that I’ve ever seen. Draw a smaller circle around the hotspots and call it a country. Then look at deaths per million. What does any of it even mean?



_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6886
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/08/21 1:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Who knows what kind of hospital and health system India has nationwide. If they only have a handful of hospitals per million population, those could become overwhelmed even if the case rate per capita in India is fairly low. But also, media almost always focus their panic porn stories on one particularly bad locale or on some sort of narrow anecdotal evidence.

You can research case and death data in many regions and cities of India, and all over the world, on the Hopkins and Worldometer sites. As to India's neighbors, Pakistan is 133rd in the world at 84 deaths per million population, Bangladesh is 137th at 72, and Sri Lanka is 153rd at 36.

Compounding the confabulating Covid confusion, who knows how good the reporting of cases and deaths is in any country, region or state -- and whether things are underreported or overreported, both of which are argued.
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13622
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 05/08/21 2:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Hmm.

Borders and countries are artificial man-made constructs. So the name/country India with over a billion people has associated with it a ranking of 110th world wide with a mere 24 deaths per million.

But somewhere where the map says is India right now near 400K people a day are testing positive for COVID and there’s a ridiculously threadbare healthcare system completely broken by the hoards of sick and dying, unable to supply beds and oxygen, and then barely able to keep up with the disposal of the dead bodies.

I mean, that’s all really happening. I think this may be one of the best examples of statistics being misleading that I’ve ever seen. Draw a smaller circle around the hotspots and call it a country. Then look at deaths per million. What does any of it even mean?


Absolutely. Context is everything.



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jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 05/08/21 5:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Who knows what kind of hospital and health system India has nationwide. If they only have a handful of hospitals per million population, those could become overwhelmed even if the case rate per capita in India is fairly low. But also, media almost always focus their panic porn stories on one particularly bad locale or on some sort of narrow anecdotal evidence.

You can research case and death data in many regions and cities of India, and all over the world, on the Hopkins and Worldometer sites. As to India's neighbors, Pakistan is 133rd in the world at 84 deaths per million population, Bangladesh is 137th at 72, and Sri Lanka is 153rd at 36.

Compounding the confabulating Covid confusion, who knows how good the reporting of cases and deaths is in any country, region or state -- and whether things are underreported or overreported, both of which are argued.


A study out of — I’m going to say the University of Washington? — yesterday asserted that the death toll in the US from COVID is actually 900k. A few days ago another reputable body said the world wide death toll right now is likely around 9.5 million which is triple what is being reported.

And in India there have been reports that the death toll there is already closer to a million than whatever they’re currently reporting.

One thing I think has been established and this was permanently implanted into the mind of every political leader world wide by watching how Trump was dragged for the US death toll and that is that high COVID death rates are going to be laid at the doorstep of a country or state’s political leadership. And then there’s the power a president etc. holds over their health ministers.

That’s the world we’re living in. So of course actual numbers are tamped down.



_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 05/09/21 4:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Reportedly India's death tally just includes those deaths that occurred in a hospital, and in many places the hospitals are full and turning away the sickest patients. Therefore, their total deaths are actually much higher than reported.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13622
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 05/09/21 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
Reportedly India's death tally just includes those deaths that occurred in a hospital, and in many places the hospitals are full and turning away the sickest patients. Therefore, their total deaths are actually much higher than reported.


And this is with at least a modicum of transparency for journalists; UNLIKE the autocratic methods in China, when things first broke. We'll undoubtedly never know anything like "real" numbers from China.



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jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 05/10/21 4:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

New media criticism from today on the covering up of the lab leak hypothesis based on a new and STUNNING piece in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by a former New York Times science correspondent. So basically more really good stuff on our lab leak debates here a few pages ago in this thread.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6Pk0wLN5uuU" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>



_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 05/10/21 5:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Also, the article in question.

The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?
By Nicholas Wade | May 5, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: The political agendas of governments and scientists have generated thick clouds of obfuscation, which the mainstream press seems helpless to dispel.

In what follows I will sort through the available scientific facts, which hold many clues as to what happened, and provide readers with the evidence to make their own judgments. I will then try to assess the complex issue of blame, which starts with, but extends far beyond, the government of China.

By the end of this article, you may have learned a lot about the molecular biology of viruses. I will try to keep this process as painless as possible. But the science cannot be avoided because for now, and probably for a long time hence, it offers the only sure thread through the maze.

The virus that caused the pandemic is known officially as SARS-CoV-2, but can be called SARS2 for short. As many people know, there are two main theories about its origin. One is that it jumped naturally from wildlife to people. The other is that the virus was under study in a lab, from which it escaped. It matters a great deal which is the case if we hope to prevent a second such occurrence.

I’ll describe the two theories, explain why each is plausible, and then ask which provides the better explanation of the available facts. It’s important to note that so far there is no direct evidence for either theory. Each depends on a set of reasonable conjectures but so far lacks proof. So I have only clues, not conclusions, to offer. But those clues point in a specific direction. And having inferred that direction, I’m going to delineate some of the strands in this tangled skein of disaster.

That's just the introduction to the piece. Much more here



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 05/20/21 11:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

From an Australian website called The ABC.

“The total coronavirus death toll in India is now over 250,000, with officials recording another 4,205 fatalities from the virus in the past 24 hours.

A further 348,421 new infections were recorded on Wednesday, with the overall number of cases surging past 23 million, according to health ministry data.

However, experts believe the official numbers grossly underestimate the real scale of the epidemic's impact in India and say the number of actual deaths and infections could be five to 10 times higher.”



_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 05/20/21 9:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
From an Australian website called The ABC.

“The total coronavirus death toll in India is now over 250,000, with officials recording another 4,205 fatalities from the virus in the past 24 hours.

A further 348,421 new infections were recorded on Wednesday, with the overall number of cases surging past 23 million, according to health ministry data.

However, experts believe the official numbers grossly underestimate the real scale of the epidemic's impact in India and say the number of actual deaths and infections could be five to 10 times higher.”


I was listening to Chicago NPR station on my way home tonight until I got out of range. Terri Grose (not sure how she spells her name and I'm EXHAUSTED so I'm not looking it up) was talking to an American report living in New Delhi. Lots of crazy stuff going on. I'm guessing it was an hour interview. I heard about 45 minutes of it.



_________________
"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"If this guy can be Senator, you can do anything." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6886
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/23/21 12:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Bill Maher skewers doctors and politicians who have been political about Covid instead of giving and acting on straight facts, the media who overwhelmingly report only negative stories about Covid, the supposed follow-the-science liberals who don't know the science, and the political correctness that prevents all of the above people from factually stating and focusing on a major cause of death factor from Covid as well as many other diseases: overweight and obesity.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Qp3gy_CLXho" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Stop Worrying About Fat Shaming. We Need to Talk About Obesity

Quote:
Forgive me if this offends you. For the past 16 months we have an elephant in the (COVID-19) room that we seem to refuse to talk about. As a clinician working in a very large London GP practice, I’ve been wondering if and when patients might spot the elephant . . . .

So what is the elephant you ask? It’s the undeniable fact that a healthy weight and lifestyle which includes regular exercise will (almost definitely) reduce your risk of dying with an infection such as Covid by an enormous amount. To name it and shame it, the elephant’s name is specifically obesity. Yes there are genetics, yes there is age, yes there are the random unlucky ones. But for the vast majority who become seriously ill with COVID-19, obesity is a significant contributory factor.

. . . .

But the mystery remains as to WHY WE AREN’T SHOUTING ABOUT THIS FROM THE ROOFTOPS?!? Is it because the media and the rest of the band wagon are afraid of fat shaming? Or would a massive increase in health promotion distract from all the fear mongering and vaccine obsession?
tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 05/26/21 5:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Was watching the end of the PGA tournament this week and it didn't occur to me until it was over that you couldn't have watched it and known it was being held in 2021. No one was wearing masks or social distancing. But I guess there was a relaxation on guidelines for outdoor activities which I didn't pay attention to.



jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 05/26/21 9:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Was watching the end of the PGA tournament this week and it didn't occur to me until it was over that you couldn't have watched it and known it was being held in 2021. No one was wearing masks or social distancing. But I guess there was a relaxation on guidelines for outdoor activities which I didn't pay attention to.



And how about the Knicks/Hawks game at MSG? That was nuts. Some masks but I would say most weren’t wearing them. And there weren’t many shots of the crowd during the Jazz/Grizzlies game but apparently there were 15K in attendance there as well. At this point I don’t know what’s wrong or right but this seems like it’s going to be a stress test for the progress we’ve made in terms of the actual preventative impact of the vaccines on outbreaks. Best of luck to us all.



_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
PUmatty



Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 15677
Location: Chicago


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PostPosted: 05/27/21 9:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
Bill Maher skewers doctors and politicians who have been political about Covid instead of giving and acting on straight facts, the media who overwhelmingly report only negative stories about Covid, the supposed follow-the-science liberals who don't know the science, and the political correctness that prevents all of the above people from factually stating and focusing on a major cause of death factor from Covid as well as many other diseases: overweight and obesity.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Qp3gy_CLXho" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Stop Worrying About Fat Shaming. We Need to Talk About Obesity

Quote:
Forgive me if this offends you. For the past 16 months we have an elephant in the (COVID-19) room that we seem to refuse to talk about. As a clinician working in a very large London GP practice, I’ve been wondering if and when patients might spot the elephant . . . .

So what is the elephant you ask? It’s the undeniable fact that a healthy weight and lifestyle which includes regular exercise will (almost definitely) reduce your risk of dying with an infection such as Covid by an enormous amount. To name it and shame it, the elephant’s name is specifically obesity. Yes there are genetics, yes there is age, yes there are the random unlucky ones. But for the vast majority who become seriously ill with COVID-19, obesity is a significant contributory factor.

. . . .

But the mystery remains as to WHY WE AREN’T SHOUTING ABOUT THIS FROM THE ROOFTOPS?!? Is it because the media and the rest of the band wagon are afraid of fat shaming? Or would a massive increase in health promotion distract from all the fear mongering and vaccine obsession?



I can't imagine a better place to get health information than a website called lockdownskeptics. Thank you so much for sharing this wonderful resource.


FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2485



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PostPosted: 05/27/21 9:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Olympics seem to be on shakier and shakier ground. Seventy percent of the population now want the games cancelled, newspapers are calling for the same, Japanese doctors are worried about a new variant, hospital beds are in short supply, the country is just now opening mass vaccination sites, and the US State Dept just bumped Japan up to Level-4 "Do Not Travel" status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAmI9OFnT1g


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6886
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/28/21 3:58 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
Bill Maher skewers doctors and politicians who have been political about Covid instead of giving and acting on straight facts, the media who overwhelmingly report only negative stories about Covid, the supposed follow-the-science liberals who don't know the science, and the political correctness that prevents all of the above people from factually stating and focusing on a major cause of death factor from Covid as well as many other diseases: overweight and obesity.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Qp3gy_CLXho" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Stop Worrying About Fat Shaming. We Need to Talk About Obesity

Quote:
Forgive me if this offends you. For the past 16 months we have an elephant in the (COVID-19) room that we seem to refuse to talk about. As a clinician working in a very large London GP practice, I’ve been wondering if and when patients might spot the elephant . . . .

So what is the elephant you ask? It’s the undeniable fact that a healthy weight and lifestyle which includes regular exercise will (almost definitely) reduce your risk of dying with an infection such as Covid by an enormous amount. To name it and shame it, the elephant’s name is specifically obesity. Yes there are genetics, yes there is age, yes there are the random unlucky ones. But for the vast majority who become seriously ill with COVID-19, obesity is a significant contributory factor.

. . . .

But the mystery remains as to WHY WE AREN’T SHOUTING ABOUT THIS FROM THE ROOFTOPS?!? Is it because the media and the rest of the band wagon are afraid of fat shaming? Or would a massive increase in health promotion distract from all the fear mongering and vaccine obsession?



I can't imagine a better place to get health information than a website called lockdownskeptics. Thank you so much for sharing this wonderful resource.


PUmatty, perhaps you don't realize it, but you frequently commit the genetic fallacy -- that is, judging the truth or falsity of a claim by looking at its source. For example, it is fallacious to conclude that the sky is not blue because it is Stalin who makes the claim.

The claim at issue, written by a London doctor, is that obesity is a highly significant risk factor for Covid. Do you deny the truth of this claim because it was made in an email to a website with a name you don't like for some reason? If you don't believe the claim about obesity, you know less than Bill Maher and are apparently uninformed about the issue.

As to the Lockdown Sceptics website in general, it is an excellent British site for all sorts of in-depth scientific commentary on Covid. Much more so than any U.S. mainstream media outlet. Of course, it has a point of view: to be skeptical about Covid claims made in media and by politicians. It is prudent, in my opinion, to be skeptical about most things in the world, and skepticism is the proper attitude for all true scientists.

If you are not at least a bit skeptical about the empirical efficacy of lockdowns, I don't think you are familiar with the literature. Here are seven studies on lockdown efficacy for you -- none of them from Stalin, just medical and economics journals:

“Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended.” “Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison” by Christian Bjørnskov. CESifo Economic Studies March 29th, 2021.

“Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate.” “Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation” by Quentin De Larochelambert, Andy Marc, Juliana Antero, Eric Le Bourg, and Jean-François Toussaint. Frontiers in Public Health, November 19th, 2020.

“Lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 deaths.” “Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response” by John Gibson. New Zealand Economic Papers, August 25th, 2020.

“While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs.” “Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19” by Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis. European Journal of Clinical Investigation, January 5th, 2021.

“Previous studies have claimed that shelter-in-place orders saved thousands of lives, but we reassess these analyses and show that they are not reliable. We find that shelter-in-place orders had no detectable health benefits, only modest effects on behaviour, and small but adverse effects on the economy.” “Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic” by Christopher R. Berry, Anthony Fowler, Tamara Glazer, Samantha Handel-Meyer, and Alec MacMillen, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA, April 13th, 2021.

“We were not able to explain the variation of deaths per million in different regions in the world by social isolation, herein analysed as differences in staying at home, compared to baseline. In the restrictive and global comparisons, only 3% and 1.6% of the comparisons were significantly different, respectively.” “Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study,” by R. F. Savaris, G. Pumi, J. Dalzochio & R. Kunst. Scientific Reports (Nature), March 5th, 2021.

“Full lockdowns and wide-spread COVID-19 testing were not associated with reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.” “A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes” by Rabail Chaudhry, George Dranitsaris, Talha Mubashir, Justyna Bartoszko, Sheila Riazi. EClinicalMedicine (The Lancet) 25 (2020) 100464, July 21st, 2020.
tfan



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PostPosted: 06/01/21 1:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:

And how about the Knicks/Hawks game at MSG? That was nuts. Some masks but I would say most weren’t wearing them. And there weren’t many shots of the crowd during the Jazz/Grizzlies game but apparently there were 15K in attendance there as well. At this point I don’t know what’s wrong or right but this seems like it’s going to be a stress test for the progress we’ve made in terms of the actual preventative impact of the vaccines on outbreaks. Best of luck to us all.


A while back I posted an opinion piece by Dr Marty Markary where he said (at least in the headline) that we would have herd immunity by April and in the text he used the phrase "be back to normal (or close)". That didn't happen, but now in May, although we just went below 20,000 new positive tests a day (17,275), we are behaving kinda like it is back to normal. Las Vegas All You Can Eat buffets are opening and people are walking around them without face masks. But on the other hand, while the Indy 500 allowed 135,000 people (normal attendance said to be 300,000) they were required to wear face coverings and get their temperature taken.

17,275 7-day average cases per day is between what we had on March 29 and March 30th (16401, 18220). The NBA canceled their 2020 season on March 11th. But I guess there is a difference between the virus getting started with no one vaccinated and 40% of the population vaccinated and an unknown amount who have some antibodies from having had the virus.


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PostPosted: 06/01/21 8:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:

And how about the Knicks/Hawks game at MSG? That was nuts. Some masks but I would say most weren’t wearing them. And there weren’t many shots of the crowd during the Jazz/Grizzlies game but apparently there were 15K in attendance there as well. At this point I don’t know what’s wrong or right but this seems like it’s going to be a stress test for the progress we’ve made in terms of the actual preventative impact of the vaccines on outbreaks. Best of luck to us all.


A while back I posted an opinion piece by Dr Marty Markary where he said (at least in the headline) that we would have herd immunity by April and in the text he used the phrase "be back to normal (or close)". That didn't happen, but now in May, although we just went below 20,000 new positive tests a day (17,275), we are behaving kinda like it is back to normal. Las Vegas All You Can Eat buffets are opening and people are walking around them without face masks. But on the other hand, while [url=https://motorsports.nbcsports.com/2021/04/21/indy-500-crowd-nbc-may-30/]the Indy 500 allowed 135,000 people[/url] (normal attendance said to be 300,000) they were required to wear face coverings and get their temperature taken.

17,275 7-day average cases per day is between what we had on March 29 and March 30th (16401, 18220). The NBA canceled their 2020 season on March 11th. But I guess there is a difference between the virus getting started with no one vaccinated and 40% of the population vaccinated and an unknown amount who have some antibodies from having had the virus.



From the views of the crowd that I saw, very few of them had anything covering their faces. Will be interesting to see if Indy/Marion County comes with any type of fine.

Way back, I don't even remember when it was, there was a venue (small race track) that got fined by the health department for violating crowd size and face mask requirements.

From the IMS FAQs - https://www.indianapolismotorspeedway.com/planyourvisit/indy-500:

Quote:
If I am fully vaccinated, will I have to wear a face covering?

Yes. Protocols from the Marion County Public Health Department requires that all attendees follow the safety precautions outlined above regardless of vaccination status.



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 06/01/21 9:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WHO adopts Greek letters for naming the varients.

Quote:
The World Health Organization has created a new system to name COVID-19 variants, getting away from place-based names that can be hard to pronounce, difficult to remember, and stigmatize a specific country.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/31/covid-variants-world-health-organization-greek-alphabet/5284698001/



_________________
"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 06/01/21 12:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

At least Indy was an outdoors event. It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens in these NBA cities these next few months. And I’m not saying that as a person coming down on the side of none of this should be happening yet. But we are absolutely certain to find out now whether letting all these people come together under one roof was the right thing to do.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 06/03/21 8:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:
WHO adopts Greek letters for naming the varients.

Quote:
The World Health Organization has created a new system to name COVID-19 variants, getting away from place-based names that can be hard to pronounce, difficult to remember, and stigmatize a specific country.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/31/covid-variants-world-health-organization-greek-alphabet/5284698001/


Well they admitted to the reason after first trying to pretend it might be two other reasons. I just heard someone on YouTube point that out the other day - the virus couldn't be named for Wuhan or China, but the variants were being named for where they come from.


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