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Why Is Donald Trump Leading The Polls?
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Genero36



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 7:54 am    ::: Why Is Donald Trump Leading The Polls? Reply Reply with quote

I know that there are multiple political threads, but I am really interested in this topic being its own.

What do you think are the reasons that Trump is leading in the polls? What does that say about him? What does that say about America?



beknighted



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 10:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

He's leading in the Republican polls. He gets crushed in a head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton (and I think he even loses to Bernie Sanders).

This is an important element of the explanation for why he's doing so well.


tfan



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 10:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Trump spoke out against illegal immigration and also job export. Something presidential candidates (outside of Pat Buchanan who ran as Reform Party candidate in 2000) do not do. While most Americans support illegal immigration many do not and are in fact, vehemently against it. Similarly, while most Americans have no problem with job export, many are strongly against it. So they are drawn to Trump. And the same qualities that turn many off, also pull some to him - that he says things others would not and won't back down when he gets condemned for saying them (although he did try and claim he hadn't been referring to menstruation with Megyn Kelly).

He is leading a field of 17 candidates as he has distinguished himself from the rest with his personality and position against illegals and concern with job export. However, he has an unfavorable rating from an lot of Republicans and he is not a second choice of most of them. As the field narrows he currently isn't the one who will be picking up most of the votes from the other candidates.

There have been other candidates in the past who lead early and never got the nomination. Nate Silver a had a table where he showed that you need to have 30 something percent at this point in the Iowa summer poll to be considered the likely nominee. Being in the Iowa poll lead with 20 something percent in the summer has not worked out for other candidates like Romney who was at 28% in 2008 and lost to McCain, or Michelle Bachman who had 23% in 2012 and lost out to Romney, or John Edwards who had 26% in 2008 and lost out to Obama. Bob Dole even had 32% in 1988 and lost to Bush, and Tom Harkin had 34% in 1992 and lost to Clinton.


norwester



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 1:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

While what tfan says is accurate, I would say that in this age people (particularly those of the Republican base who have felt alienated, as well as those that jammer champions who get harangued through obscure PC rules that are ever-changing) enjoy the straightforward bloviation. Here we are now; entertain us. Trump isn't kowtowing to anyone, and people actually like that. They wish they could get away with it. And as a result, they also take what he says at face value.

My opinion. His ratings are high, because a lot of us are eating popcorn and watching the show (though I know that wasn't your question).

I feel like the "media machine" or even the "social media devourer of those who typo or get taken our of context" doesn't quite satisfy what I feel like is an American appreciation for "straight talk".



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Honesty. Authenticity. Straight talk. Common sense. Fearlessness. Availability. Transparency. Patriotism. Hope. Change.
pilight



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 1:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Honesty. Authenticity. Straight talk. Common sense. Fearlessness. Availability. Transparency. Patriotism. Hope. Change.


Yes, Trump gives good sound bites.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 2:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?



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norwester



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 2:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 2:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
Honesty. Authenticity. Straight talk. Common sense. Fearlessness. Availability. Transparency. Patriotism. Hope. Change.


Yes, Trump gives good sound bites.


True, but that's not all. Trump has given more in-depth interviews than any other candidate of either party. For example, just last week he gave a full hour to Sean Hannity on Fox and 37 minutes to NBC's Chuck Todd of Meet the Press. He is already quite specific and detailed on some issues, and becoming more so each week.

In profound contrast, a couple of Trump's sound bites comprise more issue information communicated to the public and the media combined than the scripted, poll-tested, talking-points-screened, bunkered-down, hunkered-down Hillary Clinton has provided, in total, in the four months since her campaign announcement.

People aren't stupid. They notice these things. They prefer a real, live, honest, authentic human being -- warts and all -- to be their leader rather than some wooden marionette, especially one with a mile long nose.
HistoryWomensBasketball



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 2:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

although pretty obnoxious at times and there are things I dont agree with him on, he calls it as he see's it.

that I like for good or bad.

I would rather know who I'm dealing with up front and what to expect then people sidestepping issues because it may not be favorable in the polls.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 2:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It's a damn good question, G. I think a lot of people are missing the point and the attraction. They devoted about the first 20 minutes of Morning Joe today to this, and it was a truly fascinating conversation. Before you even started this thread I knew that I was going to make an audio recording of that and post it here. I didn't know whether I would put it in the debate thread, but you've taken care of that. So stay tuned.

I will say this though, things are changing. How we all even look at Donald Trump is going to change I believe in the coming months. Get ready. Right now the guy is a mess. But that can change as his continued position at the top of these polls forces Trump to dig more deeply into the real world of policy advisors etc. and he becomes able to articulate something that sounds like actual foreign policy etc. But the real story for now is the free pass he's getting by a growing percentage of the American people. The Free Pass seems to be something that is taking on a life of its own. Like it's not going anywhere soon either.

I would be seriously watching for the public perception of this guy to change from whatever it has been into the John Wayne neighborhood. Or Ronald Reagan. If the public perception of Donald Trump morphes from semi-ridiculous TV personality showman blowhard who's getting away with giving a middle finger to the political establishment to some kind of genuine representative American icon? Wow.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 2:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.



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HistoryWomensBasketball



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 3:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Doc: Tell me, Future Boy, who's President of the United States in 1985?

Marty:Ronald Reagan

Doc: Ronald Reagan? The actor?[rolls his eyes]Ha! Then who's vice-president,Jerry Lewis? I supposeJane Wymanis the First Lady?



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 3:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.


Um. I don't think most people think that. I don't know how they could realize it as if it is an assumed fact. I may be way behind on my poll numbers but I think most Americans are decidedly not for undocumented people entering the United States as they have been doing in the southwest and California.



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PUmatty



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 3:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think people underestimate how many GOP-ers agree with Trump on issues.


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PostPosted: 08/17/15 4:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
pilight wrote:
norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.


Um. I don't think most people think that. I don't know how they could realize it as if it is an assumed fact. I may be way behind on my poll numbers but I think most Americans are decidedly not for undocumented people entering the United States as they have been doing in the southwest and California.


The poll numbers suggest that most people don't care about undocumented workers. They care that these people pay taxes and are not a burden on our society, so the fact that they are "workers" makes them shrug. That is why the majority of Americans, and the vast, vast majority of non-conservatives (so liberals and independents) favor amnesty or "path to citizenship" policies, like when Obama issued the SS numbers to undocumented aliens.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 4:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
I think people underestimate how many GOP-ers agree with Trump on issues.

His unfavorable numbers are still above 50%, so even solely within the Republican party it is not like a majority even like him.

The reason he leads the pack is that he is so different from all the other candidates. He appeals to the people who are fed up with the establishment and career politicians and they find his bombastic, mince-no-words style refreshing. This is not the majority of the party, but it is a good chunk of the minority. And so as all the other candidates split votes amongst themselves as they put forth cookie-cutter Republican platforms, he gobbles up this chunk with no real competition.

But put him up against a single strong republican candidate from this field, and he would suddenly be behind in the polls, especially once he starts losing the "lead dog" voters, the ones that tend to vote with whomever is currently in favor.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 5:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
pilight wrote:
norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.


Um. I don't think most people think that. I don't know how they could realize it as if it is an assumed fact. I may be way behind on my poll numbers but I think most Americans are decidedly not for undocumented people entering the United States as they have been doing in the southwest and California.

The "problem" here is the same problem we have all over the world: the border is a made-up political one. Northern Mexico has a regional culture that is distinct from much of the rest of Mexico, but similar if not the same to the southwest US. People aren't really driven to honor such things over family and heritage. You see this in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India where tribal boundaries cross borders (to use an example where I have some experience).

I get trying to come up with answers. We have to do something. But there are no answers that will halt the flow of people across the border.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 5:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
pilight wrote:
norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.


Um. I don't think most people think that. I don't know how they could realize it as if it is an assumed fact. I may be way behind on my poll numbers but I think most Americans are decidedly not for undocumented people entering the United States as they have been doing in the southwest and California.


The poll numbers suggest that most people don't care about undocumented workers. They care that these people pay taxes and are not a burden on our society, so the fact that they are "workers" makes them shrug. That is why the majority of Americans, and the vast, vast majority of non-conservatives (so liberals and independents) favor amnesty or "path to citizenship" policies, like when Obama issued the SS numbers to undocumented aliens.


That's what I was getting at. The vast majority of aliens who come here are just trying to make a better life for themselves and their families. It is very easy to be sympathetic to that. That they have to break the law to do it means the law is in error, not the immigrants.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 6:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
pilight wrote:
norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.


Um. I don't think most people think that. I don't know how they could realize it as if it is an assumed fact. I may be way behind on my poll numbers but I think most Americans are decidedly not for undocumented people entering the United States as they have been doing in the southwest and California.


The poll numbers suggest that most people don't care about undocumented workers. They care that these people pay taxes and are not a burden on our society, so the fact that they are "workers" makes them shrug. That is why the majority of Americans, and the vast, vast majority of non-conservatives (so liberals and independents) favor amnesty or "path to citizenship" policies, like when Obama issued the SS numbers to undocumented aliens.


I would dispute your first statement as being incomplete and while possibly accurate in the sense of... yeah, what are people caring about most right at this precise moment... but in reality I believe most Americans do not support open borders and people just walking into the US undocumented from across any border. And I think when they are reminded of the issue they are finding (we can both do this thinking for them thing) that they actually care a great deal that this is happening and that fact is, I think, being tapped into right now. Among many other things related and unlrelated. And I think more Americans would like those people stopped than don't care. And I think probably a majority of those Americans would like something by way of a deportation process at work to send illegal immigrants back across the border.

I do think MOST Americans do not have any current concept that could be thought of as supporting what to them would be exotic solutions you're describing such as path to citizenships or amnesty. I think you are drawing lines here and labeling groups, non-conservatives, liberals, independents and that tells me that you're focusing on more politically aware types, better educated, and not just the plain old regular folks who aren't that sophisticated.

And that's kind of the big point here when it comes to Trump's appeal. There's a lot of people out there who make under 50 grand a year and who didn't go to college. While they mostly are fixated on their own lives and survival and living in a world where they don't partake in the casual discussion of what's the most humane thing to do with the children of illegal immigrants, etc., they have legitimate political concerns of their own and the skin they have in a game is, hello, their actual skin and that of their families and they only know one thing about the political game being played in places like Washington really and that is that they have been shut out of it entirely. It's all happening somewhere else and being played by other people who are the ones benefiting from everything.

When you tap into those people... they're not for a path to citizenship, number one, and number two, they believe, and they're right, that there's nobody out there caring about them or their problems or sticking up for them or any of that. And they are right about that. Until this guy Trump comes along.

Because American liberals DO care more about the issue of immigration and being fair and humane to people crossing the border than they do about the tens of millions of poor white and black people scattered throughout our country. Especially the whites one. We really don't give a damn about those people. We actually ridicule them every time one of them gives us a chance to do that.But who can point to anything that's been done to change the realities of poor blacks?

OH yeah we can SAY we care more about these lower income Americans than the issue of humane illegal immigration policies. lol. Like we often hear around here even. Uh, we can care about more than one thing at a time, jammer. But push someone just a little bit and you'll find the fact is that people care more about animals in Africa than they care about the kind shit that being done to their brothers and sisters here in the US.

Anyway.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 7:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
justintyme wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
pilight wrote:
norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


I think most people realize the illegal immigration problem is more with the laws than with the immigrants.


Um. I don't think most people think that. I don't know how they could realize it as if it is an assumed fact. I may be way behind on my poll numbers but I think most Americans are decidedly not for undocumented people entering the United States as they have been doing in the southwest and California.


The poll numbers suggest that most people don't care about undocumented workers. They care that these people pay taxes and are not a burden on our society, so the fact that they are "workers" makes them shrug. That is why the majority of Americans, and the vast, vast majority of non-conservatives (so liberals and independents) favor amnesty or "path to citizenship" policies, like when Obama issued the SS numbers to undocumented aliens.


That's what I was getting at. The vast majority of aliens who come here are just trying to make a better life for themselves and their families. It is very easy to be sympathetic to that. That they have to break the law to do it means the law is in error, not the immigrants.


Illegal or even legal immigration is a very complicated issue. Starting with the questions of who is coming and coming to where and from where, and why.

Yes, in California, there has been an amazing benefit to the state, the economy, and all of us who benefit from the ever present ever replenishing ever ready hand of extremely cheap labor. But that situation is as much a part of this state as the sunshine. This is anything but new in California but that doesn't mean it can't be learned from and the differences between California, and what illegal immigration has meant to California, and what illegal immigration is and how it has been playing out elsewhere in the country can't be studied and analyzed for what it is there and what it means in those other parts of the country. This is California. It is NOT Kentucky.

Like I could say to you guys in the rest of the country... you don't a damn thing about illegal immigration, or Mexicans, or any of it. And I'd be right. But then you would probably know, by now, something about illegal immigration, and Mexicans, where you are. We're not living in the same worlds. Believe me.

So that's just for starters. Political Correctness looms very heavily over any discussion of illegal immigration because it is a discussion about people who it is taken as a given must not be marginalized or scapegoated by way of language or xenophobic thinking. Trump is attempting to blow that shit up. And as far as Political correctness stifles actual political discussions that are extremely important and should include everyone's voice, political correctness SHOULD be blown up. We comb everything through these filters and always to ensure now that we're not engaging in xenophobic thoughts or behaviors. Well, so a lot of people aren't going to have a voice because their political thought processes aren't and haven't been sufficiently and acceptably scrubbed and groomed so that their language and positions can't be taken as unacceptable and ignorant.

A huge problem with all of this, from political correctness to illegal immigration is that everything, from the Left, is always focusing the filter lens inwards or back at all of us here in America. It's so important that WE be welcoming, Politically Correct, not xenophobic in any way, humane, tolerant, inclusive, generous, etc. All those things. And that's the problem with ideology, It's just like an overlay. We're going to have those things applied to all of us, dammit. We're the rich and generous country and we are going to proceed always with this humanity as part of our operating system.

But from the poorest of the poor coming across the Mexican border, to the Russian oligarch's who are buying apartments for 20 million in Trump's towers (there's his vulnerability) nobody is applying that same filter to all these imported people. How politically correct are they? Are they xenophobic? Are they tolerant of gays? How do they feel about working with black people? How fucking monstrous are their attitudes toward women? (sorry) To what degree do they really, and I mean REALLY, respect our laws? Maybe most important, WHAT DO THEY REALLY THINK OF US?

Because of the current political climate, and that's squarely on the Left and political correctness and it's influences on American political discourse, we don't even get to ask those questions. And we're losing time.

There is a truly great review of the latest biography of Joan Didion in the New Yorker. That's what the New Yorker used to be like! Anyway. I'd suggest anyone go read that. It's called The Radicalization of Joan Didion. Nobody knew California, and honestly, I would say, came to know the politics of the United States, like Joan Didion. The ugly ugly truth. You can apply it honestly to the entire human race because it's worse every where else. That's what we're finding now, isn't it, my fellow baby boomers? It's just a big fucked up mess of biological things scrambling around for a while and then dying. lol.

So I would sincerely worry about the thinking that we have to do all these good and compassionate things for people who walk into this country without really opening our eyes like cold blooded biological units and asking ourselves why we're not really going to primarily focus on the welfare of our fellow Americans first. I would sincerely worry about thinking that we don't need to seriously take a laser focus to the wealthy of the world who are buying into the United States and who they are and why and, most importantly, what effect and who benefits here most from their being able to do that. Is it the wealthy developers and extremely wealthy home owners who never see their prices ebb and flow with the fortunes of their fellow Americans?

I would say YES. We are being sold out by property owners and developers. And don't steal my shit but that would include Donald Trump. Thanks to all those people and to the politicians who have enabled it all, for putting the American Dream out of reach of actual Americans.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 7:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Being sympathetic to undocumented workers is not synonymous with believing in open borders.

People can believe in strong (humane) border security while also believing that we should treat those that do make it here with compassion.

And I think that is what the polls reflect. Not everyone may understand exactly what things like amnesty or path to citizenship mean exactly in a political sense, but people are also not stupid. People grasp concepts of equality and fairness without having to pay attention to whatever buzzword or legal terminology is floating about.

The reality is, most people in the US know someone, or work with someone, who is an undocumented alien. So even though they are concerned with their own well being, they too can empathize with another human being's struggle. As I've noted before, I worked at a Bar and Gill to put myself through college. I would say that about 1/3 of the back of the house staff was here illegally with forged papers. And they were some of the nicest and hardest working people I have ever met. When you work side by side someone like that, you would like to see them be able to make it.

And I would disagree that liberals care more for the plight of undocumented workers than they do for the poor white/black peoples of the world. I would say they care about both. Liberals have been working to increase minimum wages, insure health care, expand welfare programs, set new overtime thresholds, strengthen unions, increase Wall Street regulations, and a slew of other programs directed at reducing poverty and shrinking the wealth gap.

Animals in Africa get headlines for a day or week or month, and then fade back into the ethers. It gets a lot of attention because it is sensational, and we are drawn to sensational things. But that is all it is: flash paper. Burns brilliantly for a second then fades to smoke. And then these liberals return to their daily fight for better wages, control of their own bodies, etc. In a year, how many people will still be talking about Cecil the Lion? I bet it is a fraction of the people calling daily for higher wages and better welfare programs...



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 7:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

because too many americans are political nitwits.



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PostPosted: 08/17/15 7:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?


Yes. If they don't support it, they are ambivalent about it. Otherwise we wouldn't tolerate it. It isn't that hard to go to businesses, check IDs and put employers in prison if they are found hiring illegals. Put enough employers in prison and the one's left will start to think maybe it isn't worth it to hire illegals.

When I talk to people about immigration or illegal immigration most are for both. Their arguments for illegal immigration are that the country would fall apart without it and that they want the cheap labor. Some will also say that we need to help out Mexico. But most people who are for illegal immigration seem to want the cheap labor - people working at less than legal wages who don't have the choices and protections that legal workers have. You never hear calls for the amount of legal workers from Mexico to be increased and the amount of illegals to be decreased.

The mainstream press is certainly for it. They have chosen to not use the term "illegal alien". They refer to illegal aliens as "undocumented workers". Even if they are making a headline for what Trump said about deporting illegals they will change it to "Trump says he would deport all undocumented". Trump's initial comments are referred to as "Trump's comments against immigrants" or "Trumps comments against Mexican immigrants" when they were actually "Trump's comments about illegal Mexican immigrants".


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PostPosted: 08/17/15 8:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

norwester wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan did you (mean to) say most Americans support illegal immigration?

I got the impression that what was meant was that most Americans support some sort of amnesty program for those illegal immigrants who have lived and worked here most of their lives, etc.


No, I meant most Americans support illegal immigration. And as history shows, they support it before amnesty, and after amnesty. We had an amnesty in the 1980's and the illegals were still allowed to come in and they will continue to be allowed to come in after this amnesty. And while some will say "but we have an INS and they catch some at the border and occasionally will find a business employing them", I think it's pretty clear that we are only giving a very half-assed attempt at enforcement because people - particularly the filthy rich that buy our politicians - want it.

Norm Macdonald had a joke that probably got him in trouble when he was the SNL news guy. The straight part of the story was "The INS has announced that apprehensions at the border are up 20% this year. In the first 6 months 45,000 people have been caught trying to enter the country illegally". Then the punchline: "The number who are not caught entering the country illegally continues to remain steady at millions and millions".


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