RebKell's Junkie Boards

[KatValeska]

I'm wondering if one of you Big 10 gurus would be kind enough to give the rest of us a breakdown of the conference this year?

Based on my limited knowledge of the league, it seems to me that this is going to be somewhat of a down year for the conference given the hits taken to graduation by MSU and Minnesota and whatever the heck it is Portland has been doing to defang PSU.

I'm hoping the Badgers can take advantage and move to the upper half of the conference. I'm also interested in any thoughts anyone has about Illinois. Thanks.

[bballjunkee212]

Don't know if I'm a guru, but I'll give it a shot.

Overall, I don't think the B10 will be a "power" conference this season. There are prolly just three teams which can be expected to do well in the Dance: MSU, Minnesota and OHST. The rest will range from competitive to not so much.

MSU, Minnesota and OHST will vie for conference title and tournament championship. Purdue and Iowa should round out the top tier.

With three starters returning from a NC runner-up, MSU should be the class of the conference. However, unless somebody steps up- Haynes?- I don't think they will have what it takes to make another run to the NC. Haynie was too strong of a player to replace easily, and the Haynie/Roehrig combination provided an intangible: Senior leadership. They got an interesting transfer from St. Louis, Mia Johnson (interesting a Minnesotan went to MSU), who averaged 17 ppg, 3.4 apg, with a (okay for a froshie) .74 a/TO ratio. If nothing else, she's EC. She's redshirting this season. but she may be the heir to Haynie. Nevertheless, MSU has the tools and should win the conference.

Minnesota no longer has McCarville, which means they hafta do a little reinventing of both team character and offensive strategy. A lot may depend on how Podominick evolves. Picking of from last season, she needs to be more physical, develop a better feel for handling the ball and develop her decision-making abilities- all doable. If she develops, she could lead this team, and if the Gophers have a dominating inside presence, they could win the conference.

I don't know too much about OHST, other than that they have a stud in Jessica Davenport and should be good. Whether they win the conference will depend on their road games. They can't afford to lose any road games they "should" win.

With a healthy Katie Gearlds, Purdue could be a contender. But aside from Erin Lawless, where's the supporting cast? Lots of people played, but nobody else averaged in double figures. Sixty-two ppg (to opponents' 59.6), and matching opponents' rebounds, won't take a team far in the Dance. Purdue needs another player to step up. Still, Purdue should be able to handle most conference opponents. They will prolly lose to MSU and Minnesota, split with Iowa and maybe drop one or two others on the road. Look for PU to be 3-4 in the conference.

I look for Iowa to do good things. They have lost the nucleus of the team to graduation, but there doesn't appear to have been any "drama" about it. Bluder is getting back Lindsey Richards from ACL injury, and she may lead the team. Iowa will be competitive- but lose at least once to- the aforementioned teams, and should beat the lower tier teams.

The rest of the conference may have notables, but IMHO, they lack the overall talent to rise to the top tier of the conference. Since the Professor specifically asked about Illinois, here's what I think: Despite (or maybe because of) having an icon coach, the program is run more like a rec club than a D1 basketball program. All of the talent that goes to DePaul and other B19 teams (mainly Iowa) should be going to Illinois. But they don't. Illinois will compete in the lower tier of the conference and get beaten up by the top tier teams.

Interestingly, Michigan could be a spoiler. Despite recent defections, last season they showed signs of capability. If a team looks past Michigan, they could get surprised, and in the right situation that Michigan road loss could decide who wins the conference.

PSU is now apparently Lesbian free and poised for world domination. We'll see. PSU is likely to take a few poundings this season, as they are truly down after some up years. Still, give Rene Portland her due, she is an experienced coach. She will take what talent she gets and make the best of it.

The remaining teams, Wisconsin, Indiana and Northwestern, will bring up the rear. Unless they win road games against each other, they will not win any road games. Unless a team comes to Evanston short-handed (as PSU did last season), NWU will likely not win any home games unless against Wisconsin and Indiana. I'm not even sure they'll play those teams at Evanston.

So that's the way I see it; if I am terribly wrong, I invite others to provide more information.

~Bill

[PUmatty]

I agree with a lot BBJ had to say, but disagree with a fair amount as well. Take below opinions with a proper helping of salt.

Ohio State looks to be the class of the league. Jessica Davenport is a POY candidate nationally and shouldn't have much competition for that award in the B11. Brandie Hoskins is about as good, and Kim Wilburn should move in to the starting line-up. She doesn't score but is an underrated point guard IMO. Debbie Murrill will be in Columbus from Cinncinati and could give the Buckeyes the best front court in the B11. They are a legit Final Four contender this year.

I expect Purdue to finish second. Katie Gearlds will be healthy and she and Erin Lawless should anchor a much improved team. Last year was Purdue's youngest squad in 20 years, and they only lose Emily Heikes. LWH may not have averaged double-figures for the season, but had several double-figure games as a freshman and if she is more consistent -- as you expect a sophomore to be -- she could average 15 and 8. The addition of Cherelle George from JUCO should help with turnovers, which was Purdue's biggest weakness this year. So should a year of playing together and a European tour. Look for a return of a typical Purdue team this year.

Minnesota and Michigan State should battle for 3-4. The loss of Haynie will effect the Spartans more than people expect. Shimik and Bowen are talents (I really love Shimik) but Haynie was the glue that held the team together. I expect them to struggle early. Minnesota probably won't get a lot worse with the loss of McCarville, but I also don't espect them to get better. Jamie Broback is the key and I think she will do well. I look for Minesota to do about what they did last year. My guess is they and MSU both end up fourth or fifth seeds.

Those four should easily make the tournament. Iowa probably will, and a surprise team -- either Indiana or Wisconsin -- should as well. For Wisconsin, the lose Stephanie Rich, but return most everyone else. Jolene Anderson is very good, and if Janese Banks makes a step forward, so should the team. Jenny Demuth will be back at IU and might finish the season with the best stats in the conference. If Sharon Versyp's coaching makes a difference, Demuth should help IU take a big step forward.

Northwestern will finish last and Michigan, Illinios, and Penn State will fill inthe gaps.

My All-Conference Team
- Davenport
- Gearlds
- Shimik
- Demuth
- Either Hoskins, Lawless, Broback or Bowen, depending on where their teams finish

COY - Versyp or Foster

[gopher5]

Good posts so far. I am not a guru either but will add a little to the discussion.

My picks for the top four teams are MN, OSU, MSU and Purdue (not sure about order yet).

MN loses McCarville, but should have a deep bench and lots of options. The problem may be in finding playing time for everyone. Podominick should replace Janel in the starting line up. She improved significantly from freshman to sophomore years and if she had not battled mono, would have had a stronger year. No one will replace the passing McCarville provided from the post and it will likely take a few people to pick up her rebounding numbers, but I am excited about the team. Jamie Broback had a great year and should improve on that.

I won't add too much on the other teams to what has been posted, except to say that I think Purdue will be much improved this year with a healthy Katie and an emerging star in LWH.

Illinois loses their two main offensive options from last season in Angelina Williams and Tiffany Guthrie, so it will be interesting to see who emerges as the go to player. I do not expect them to improve on last year.

Iowa does not have Lindsey Richards back. I just read last week that she tore her ACL again. I think they have a couple of other options to play the point, but it does limit them.

Wisconsin is the other team I look to improve from last year if Jolene and Janese continue to emerge as stars in the league. I'm not sure who they signed for this year, but they need some rebounding and consistent scoring from their post players.

[gopher5]

Good posts so far. I am not a guru either but will add a little to the discussion.

My picks for the top four teams are MN, OSU, MSU and Purdue (not sure about order yet).

MN loses McCarville, but should have a deep bench and lots of options. The problem may be in finding playing time for everyone. Podominick should replace Janel in the starting line up. She improved significantly from freshman to sophomore years and if she had not battled mono, would have had a stronger year. No one will replace the passing McCarville provided from the post and it will likely take a few people to pick up her rebounding numbers, but I am excited about the team. Jamie Broback had a great year and should improve on that.

I won't add too much on the other teams to what has been posted, except to say that I think Purdue will be much improved this year with a healthy Katie and an emerging star in LWH.

Illinois loses their two main offensive options from last season in Angelina Williams and Tiffany Guthrie, so it will be interesting to see who emerges as the go to player. I do not expect them to improve on last year.

Iowa does not have Lindsey Richards back. I just read last week that she tore her ACL again. I think they have a couple of other options to play the point, but it does limit them.

Wisconsin is the other team I look to improve from last year if Jolene and Janese continue to emerge as stars in the league. I'm not sure who they signed for this year, but they need some rebounding and consistent scoring from their post players.

[Gaucho Don]

I would expect that Michigan State is taking a very big hit in Haynie moving on (though I'm still thinking it will be enough to beat an improved UCSB team early in the season - I'll be in Michigan for that game, so hopefully I'm wrong and I'll see a nice early season UCSB victory)

And, Purdue should be improved (everybody's a bit older, nice continuity + some nice youth reinforcements coming in - if I remember right). Seems like they are getting dinged to harshly for a single down year.

[KatValeska]

Y'all rock! I feel like I begged for for a dollar to get a cup of coffee and instead was taken to the best restaurant in town for a meal of, hmm, let's say lobster-stuffed ravioli by a group of celestial philanthropists. I'm mighty obliged.


While I'm at this, what do y'all think about this rumor originally posted on the Boneyard and rehashed on the espn top 25 board about Portland?

http://forums.espn.go.com/espn/message?forumID=741&byThread=false&messageID=11705637&start=0&num=51

I won't believe it until I see it.

[bballjunkee212]

You're quite welcome, Professor. Regarding Portland, I'm with you, I'll believe it when I see it. Whatever is going on at PSU, I'm sure that Portland firmly believes she has done right. She's not going to slink away.

~Bill

[barryi22]

I think the top 3 teams in the conference are OSU, MSU, and Purdue.
OSU is probably the odds on favorite for atleast regular season big 10 champs, because Davenport is one of the toughest players in the nation to stop. If anybody had a chance to catch OSU @ Wisconsin this past season, Davenport always got solid position and was able to get an easy bucket time and again. You also can't foul her because she is a great FT shooter. She is my pick for POY in the big 10. They also have Hoskins who is a solid guard, and Wilburn who will help out a lot. The combination of Davenport and Merrill inside will be tough to stop, and then Marscilla Packer was a McDolands AA in HS, so I they'll be at the top of the conference again.

I think MSU will finish second, because of Bowen and Shimek. However, I'm not sure what they'll do to replace Roerhig inside, and the replacement of Haynie will be difficult. Shives could immediately start as the PG, but she is only a freshman. I think they should give Hayes and Bowen a chance at playing the point. They are still a talented team with a great coach.

I'd put Purdue at number 3, they return everybody besides their 6-0 center who averaged 5 points a game, they'll be solid next season.

Then in the middle of the big 10 I'd put Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Iowa

Then at the bottom I'd put: Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan

[accommodatingly]

Everyone's picking Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State and Purdue, not necessariliy in that order: seems right to me. Purdue is gaining important recruits, I think, and hasn't lost anyone major: they could end up as conference champions. Boy, did they improve from January to March. Ohio State lost its star perimeter shooter and didn't have much of a bench: they'll do fine as long as Davenport's healthy, though. Minnesota usually outscored opponents last year while McCarville sat on the bench: our progress will depend in part on Podominick, in part on Pam Borton's ability to create a more effective backcourt than the one we had last year. Brittany Davis could be the key, though she could also have continued academic eligibility problems. Michigan State returns three of five starters, but loses the most important (Haynie) and the most intimidating (Roehrig): all they need is one really good recruit, but will they have one?

Wisconsin will look better than last year, but how much better? Depends if they've recruited a quality post. Iowa, I dunno: they've lost their most effective player from last year (Jamie Cavey), and Crystal Smith, while fast and tricky, didn't seem to be able to play with her team. Wisconsin and Purdue got better as the year progressed-- Iowa arguably got worse.

The real surprise could be Northwestern: they're in the second year with Beth Combs coaching, meaning that this is the first year they'll start with her system and some of her recruits, and they're the other team (along with Purdue) that really improved as the season progressed. Granted Northwestern improved from losing by 20 all the time to losing by 3, but that's still improvement: they could well finish in the middle of the conference, though they won't be a tournament team.

Penn State will implode. Michigan has already imploded, and based on their play in January, I don't see them coming back very far: they were a one-player team and they lost that player. Illinois were a two-player team and lost their best player: how far can Tiffanie Guthrie take them? Not far. All three schools have coaches whom their own players seem to dislike; that has to hurt. I pick those three schools for the bottom of the conference.

At least one of my predictions will be proven dreadfully, 180-degree wrong.

[PUmatty]

[boilerjay]

[bballjunkee212]

I think Indiana will be much better this year than last- wasn't DeMuth out with an injury last season? But that doesn't change my assessment of where they will be in the conference standings: Second tier. Even with a solid leader and good freshmen, they will have trouble winning on the road in the B10- at NWU, probably, at PSU possibly (given PSU's woes), at Illinois, possibly. But the rest of the road games I expect to be losses.

~Bill

[gopher5]

Indiana will be interesting to watch. Jenny DeMuth is definitely a great player, but how she is able to respond to coming back from her ACL tear will be key. They could be a spoiler, but until I see them and their new system it's tough to put them ahead of who I think will be the top tier teams of MN, Purdue, OSU and MSU.

[PUmatty]

[gopher5]

[bullsky]

[boilerjay]

The only thing Theresa Grentz has proven since she took over at Illinois is that she knows how to waste talent.

[PUmatty]