RebKell's Junkie Boards

[eyevolley4]

The last reveal had the following as one seeds:

South Carolina
Ohio State
Stanford
UCLA

Where do these four stand?

South Carolina doesn’t need to win another game. They are the number one seed.

Ohio State dropped a clunker that ensures their number one seed is gone. To who? We will need to work through that!

Stanford likely wrapped up a one seed with their Pac 12 Finals appearance.

UCLA is at risk with their loss to USC. But they aren’t completely out of the question!

So to rise, you need to beat someone! Who can rise?

USC was 8, and they directly beat UCLA and could beat Stanford. Even just beating UCLA positions them well. They also have the early season win over Ohio State and a win over Stanford already on the resume. They probably move up to a 1, but let’s review the other people who were seeded ahead of them.

Iowa was 7, and they already claimed a win over Ohio State since the last reveal. They have a pretty good claim to move up. But we have to take a look at two more teams at least.

Texas as 6. Even winning the Big 12 Championship probably only holds them right where they are at this point with 7 and 8 both securing signature wins over a top 4 seed.

Virginia Tech was 5. Losses to Notre Dame and Virginia likely cost them but beating Notre Dame today could help them salvage a 2/3 seed. Ohio State’s resume is similar to theirs and they don’t have any more chances to add strong wins to their resume the way VT does. UCLA does stay firmly ahead of VT regardless of what happens in the ACC tournament however.

Okay, so the easy button says Iowa and USC replace Ohio State and UCLA. South Carolina and Stanford aren’t really at risk as their overall resume has them solidified.

Stanford could lose to USC in the championship and they would still be ahead of UCLA.

Now, if Iowa stumbles against Michigan, I think there is a real chance UCLA could be the fourth number one. UCLA’s resume, as it stands, is loaded with top 25 wins and landing essentially third in the Pac 12 is no small feat. If Iowa makes it to the Big Ten Final. They probably snag the last number one although I think it is really really tight and I actually think you could make a darn strong case that UCLA still deserves a 1.

Here’s another complicated idea. If LSU beats South Carolina in the SEC Tournament, is there any way they sneak into a 1 seed? I value the Pac 12 resumes to a higher degree than LSU’s resume. They are getting no favors from the overall relatively weak performance of the SEC as a whole this year. But what if… what if… Iowa wins the Big Ten and LSU wins the SEC. Does that make Iowa the 4 seed overall and LSU the 5? Unlikely to see this, as South Carolina has given no indication of slowing down and should be expected to win every game the rest of the year at this point.

_________________
Some days are meant to be remembered.

[Conway Gamecock]

I think South Carolina and Iowa are the sure bets, and certainly one of two of Stanford and SoCal.


Stanford has spent most of the season in the top 10, although they have had 2 losses to then-unranked Gonzaga and still-unranked Arizona. But they have chugged along and won the regular-season title of the toughest WBB conference this season. Losing to SoCal in the PAC12T shouldn't hurt them too much - they already lost to the Trojans during the regular season, and SoCal is very good. The Cardinal may not be as solid as either the Gamecocks or Hawkeys for a #1 Seed, but they aren't far behind.

SoCal beat Stanford twice this season now, accounting for 40% of their losses on the season. They started the season in the back of the top 25, then along with NC State and Colorado, they leaped up the rankings into the top 10 after the first week of results, which included a season-opening win over the Buckeyes. They've been a top-10 mainstay in the rankings ever since. They do have a somewhat "bad" loss to Washington.

Despite that loss to SoCal, Ohio State was in the foursome, but closed out their pre-NCAAT schedule with back-to-back losses, including to an un-ranked Maryland. That might be enough to cause them to fall to a top 2-Seed.

Mostly likely the current top 2-Seed is Texas. The Longhorns have dwelt in the top 10 rankings for most of the season, in or around the top 5 for the last half. Their 4 losses are all Quad 1 losses, including getting swept by a total of 4 pts in 2 games by conference rival and regular-season champ Oklahoma. Unless the committee feels that there shouldn't be two teams from the same conference as #1 Seeds, I think Texas may be left out of the #1 Seeding, as SoCal's NET and SOS are better.

UCLA was charging along during the season, but with their star player Lauren Betts missing a number of games for undisclosed reasons, the Bruins went 5-5 over a 10-game stretch, which saw them plummet out of the top-10 rankings. Betts returned and so did UCLA's winning, before losing to SoCal for the 2nd time out of 3 gms this season, in the Pac12T. They MAY have made a case for themselves to crack the top 4 for the NCAAT, before that loss.

I think its:

1. South Carolina
2. Iowa
3. Stanford/SoCal
4. SoCal/Stanford


If anyone crashes that party, its Texas. They have a big case to make for themselves based on how well they play against Iowa State tonight. The Longhorns beat the Cyclones by 21 pts earlier this season, so another victory - even by substantial margins - may not sway the committee enough, but we'll see.....

[Conway Gamecock]

[Howee]