RebKell's Junkie Boards

[okstateguy]

As it stands: al payout will be the 2023 estimates

B1G: 58.9 million/school
USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

With Warren gone, and several schools being against further expansion, it appears they are set until the possibility of Notre Dame moves out of the realm of fantasy.

SEC: 56 million/school
OU, Texas, TAMU, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Miss State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina

Sanke has consistently denied further expansion, which seems likely to hold until the ACC is able to be raided.

ACC: 36.3 million/school
ND(half-member), Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, Miami

It appears their GoR is as ironclad as rumored, so it appears the conference will hold steady for about another decade.

Big 12: 41.8 million/school (will become 32 million when OU/Texas leave
WVU, Cincy, Iowa State, UCF, Houston, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, OK State, Kansas, Kansas St, BYU

They stabilized and expanded their market to new, bigger demographics, but the payout is lagging around half of the B1G/SEC. Without bigger brands, bigger markets, or an out of this world marketing strategy, they could be on the path to irrelevance.

PAC: 35.5 million/school (projected 25-32 million/school with new deal)
Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, (rumored SDSU and SMU).

SMU won't get them a big enough footprint in the Dallas market to add much monetary value to a deal. SDSU provides positives, but will ultimately just dilute the payout. Quantity is needed for their deal, and unfortunately the payout will be lower as the price to pay.


Should Notre Dame join the ACC, their GoR would likely be renegotiated to keep Notre Dame happy enough to stay away from the FOX machine that is the B1G. The PAC and Big 12, however, are at risk of falling too far behind to compete with the Eastern half of the country. The PAC should have raided Kansas, Kansas State, OK State, TCU, Texas Tech, and Houston when they had the chance. With the Big 12 teams now locked in, the PAC is the one in position of being raided. Once the new media deal is revealed, I would expect to hear more realignment rumors catch fire.

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okstateguy

[okstateguy]

Five scenarios I see likely should the PAC panic:

1)The AAU schools+Arizona State join the Big 12
2)The AAU schools(minus Cal)+Arizona State+Tulane join the Big 12
3)The PAC absorbs SDSU and SMU, then fully merges with Big 12
4)The PAC absorbs SDSU and Tulane then fully merges with the Big 12.
5)Any four-team combo of Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado join the Big 12

Every option would be enough to place the Big 12 over 40 million/school and allow them to remain competitive with the ACC/B1G/SEC

Should the PAC remain in tact, I fully look for a merger between the two around 2031 where several of the schools are potentially left behind.

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okstateguy

[Stormeo]

THE BIG (12) NEWS: Oklahoma and Texas will officially leave the Big 12 for the SEC after the 2023-24 season.

This, coming just hours after a multi-reporter article at The Athletic ($) about how the Pac-12's media rights deal negotiations are internally not going well, despite Pac Commissioner George Kliavkoff openly enjoying himself at SMU just one day ago...

Rumors – and there are a lot:

—Mutual interest starting to materialize with Big 12 and Ore. & Wash., still pursuing four-corner schools
—Big 12 besides Pac schools & Gonzaga also pursuing new members in the east – UConn, Villanova, St. John's, maybe more as basketball-only members
—Leaks related to first two items above should be coming very soon
—Gonzaga in talks with both Big 12 & Pac
—Gonzaga waiting to see Pac's supposed deal, still more likely to join Big 12 who is more likely to offer full membership rather than just Pac's basketball-only
—Arizona State AD has loudly voiced displeasure in recent Pac negotiations
—Revenue sharing starting to play a central role in Pac negotiations
—ESPN is rescinding original $250M offer to the remaining 10 of the Pac
—SDSU, SMU have already been voted on once – both were below 75% threshold to pass (7.5/10 aka 8/10 University Presidents approving)
—Vote of no confidence, ergo termination for Kliavkoff as Pac Commish incoming if no new media rights deal by sometime in April
—ACC Commish Jim Phillips is leading candidate to fill same vacant position with B1G
—Ore., Wash., Stanford, & Cal have recently been in talks about joining ACC

[okstateguy]

[Queenie]

[summertime blues]

Looks like the Big 12 is about to become the Puny 12 if this continues.....

_________________
Don't take life so serious. It ain't nohows permanent.
It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom

[okstateguy]

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/cbs-sports-and-turner-reportedly-back-out-of-pac-12-media-rights-negotiations

So now it seems as if:
-FOX
-CBS/Turner
-NBC
-ABC/ESPN(Wants no expansion)

are all out on the PAC deal. Which leaves Apple/Amazon(which favors expansion) as the only real possibilities at this point. It appears the PAC doomsday is near if these reports are true. The questions would then become:

-does the B1G/SEC reconsider expansion at the moment?
-does the ACC risk opening up the GoR?
-does the PAC accept the Big 12 is the only option?

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okstateguy

[Stormeo]

ESPN+ may want the ten remaining Pac schools as-is, though of course at a cheapened rate since they’re still trying to cut costs like crazy. And Amazon has been rumored to be only interested in getting the top weekly Pac football game – not even all Tier-1 games. It really is looking bad.

And one can draw their own conclusions regarding the joint statement offered by the remaining ten universities' presidents earlier this week in the name of unity & belief that a media rights deal will get done – making no mention of current Commissioner George Kliavkoff or intimating he was even remotely part of the released statement. Lol.

The only two remaining possible outcomes at this point are either everyone signing what would most certainly be a shitty media deal either in payouts, exposure, or (probably) both; or widespread university defections to other conferences. Regardless, whatever happens to the Pac next is the fault of the 12 'original' university presidents who gave so much power & approval to former Pac commish, Larry Scott, whom absolutely everyone regards as this conference’s one-man poison pill. Kliavkoff deserves some of the blame for how he’s handled himself throughout these never-ending taking-way-too-long media rights negotiations – though in my & others' opinions, he was dealt a tough hand to begin with. Don’t think he could’ve prevented USC & UCLA jumping ship even if he had known about it, and even if he would’ve tried to offer them unequal revenue sharing in their favor in the next deal.

Speaking of which, people are starting to wonder if unequal revenue sharing may start to become a thing in other conferences' future media rights negotiations. There’s been enough talk about it as it relates to the Pac’s embarrassing situation lmao that’s for sure.

[Stormeo]

i will say, as it relates to wbb: every week i see such joyless, hollow game threads with specifically the Pac matchups

no one east of the Rockies can easily obtain the P12 Networks

even if they could, who the hell would watch on a Friday night?

and then Sunday’s games (there are only two gamedays per week for this conference, fyi – way to get the product out there, Pac) are overshadowed by all the other leagues, which of course get broadcast on more accessible networks

the Pac probably won’t actually implode for another few years, but even from a wbb angle where the conference has never seen such depth from top to bottom, i actually think its implosion is still warranted, because ultimately it’s still doing a disservice to its student-athletes when it comes to its overall effort to showcase them & expose them to a wider audience

those USC & UCLA kids will be dead-tired having to take midwest & east-coast flights all the time, which will certainly become its own issue when the time comes, but damn it if the ones in revenue sports won’t build up eons more streetcred and individual brands for themselves as a result

[ucbart]

[calbearman76]

[Stormeo]

and i’m not gonna lie to y’all – i don’t even know how i am able to get the P12N in the way i do, since i am not the one paying for such a subscription in my household lmfao

honestly, being [mostly] on Amazon would strangely help wbb exposure – but strictly speaking for wbb & virtually all other broadcast sports, cuz the better Pac football and mbb games are often shown on channels within the networks of ESPN (and Fox, for now) anyway

god, the P12N has been such a disaster the past decade for this conference, when it could’ve been its savior had it just been part of DirecTV 😭

[Stormeo]

we're approaching March for the Pac, a make-or-break month as it pertains to getting literally anything even just agreed upon – supposedly Kliavkoff will present to the Presidents at least one formal offer by the end of this week... don't anybody hold their breath, though

meanwhile, the drama for the ACC is just beginning – you may have seen that athletic admin at both Florida State and Clemson – and supposedly now Miami – are openly bad-mouthing the ACC's media deal, saying it hurts the schools' respective abilities to compete nationally considering how fewer millions the schools receive in media-deal money compared to the SEC & B1G (and they're not wrong)

basically, if ESPN doesn't give these specific schools extra annual money to their liking, they'll each independently lawyer up and find their own 'exit hatch' of sorts out of the ACC – way ahead of the 2036 expiration date

and fwiw, the Oklahoma and Texas early exits from the Big 12 a few weeks ago may have set legal precedent in a way that would favor ACC schools wanting to get out


if Conference Realignment 1.0 simply can be and does get boiled down to Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA moving on up – as the moves were done relatively cleanly, with only minor use of an actual courtroom – Conference Realignment 2.0 is about to be... much messier

[okstateguy]

[Stormeo]

i’m thinking we’ll eventually get to an ACC-Pac merger that features each conference’s respective bottom-feeders once the other Power conferences rummage through the higher-value schools… but yeah, it’d still be behind the Big 12 in annual money let alone the Top Two

i wonder how long it takes for the true Power conferences to start partnering with streaming services in order to take in more schools, cuz otherwise it would seem that 16 maybe 18 is about as big as a conference is gonna get

i also wonder if the Big 12 would ever consider a rebrand – once they surpass twelve schools – in the long term, that is – and add whichever Pacific-timezone schools they’re gonna add, since they haven’t been the Big 12 for really that long… Big American? (Great American was taken by Div. II) although we already [redundantly] have the AAC and Conf. USA

the whole number-of-schools-as-part-of-the-name thing is a tired thing, though as we know it hasn’t negatively affected the Big Ten one bit. also, 12 is too close to 10, and simultaneously 12 just isn’t 10

[okstateguy]

One thing to keep in mind when looking at this is FSU and Clemson have previously been linked to the Big 12. With UCF and Cincy, they now look like a better geographic fit. Yormack has floated the idea of using the Texas/OU buyout money to help expand the conference. Theoretically, the Big 12 could agree to pay the money to get FSU and Clemson a much more favorable departure from the ACC. With them gone, the ACC is in a very similar position as the PAC. The Big 12 may not have wanted this fight for survival in the first place, but they have positioned themselves as the one who could very well end it for now.

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okstateguy

[Stormeo]

FSU, Clemson, and Miami aren’t gonna break the GOR just to not end up in the SEC or Big Ten. whichever ACC school goes through with this will [have to] be pretty sure that they’ll end up in a significantly more lucrative situation

i’m gonna sound like a villain for saying this, but i truly don't care – i really hope Washington ends up in the Big Ten, and if that means the Pac as we know it has to collapse in order for that to happen, then so be it.

[Michael]

[Stormeo]

if any of those top ACC schools have a legal case to make with breaking free early of that GOR, we’re getting closer to the point of them trying to make it. regardless of how much of an uphill battle it’s gonna be for them – it doesn’t sound like they’re gonna sit on their hands for the next 10-13 years anyway.

as for ND’s case, they may have an easier [legal] time leaving that conference than the others; but at least outwardly, they seem to enjoy their football independence. although, unless i’m mistaken which i could be, they haven’t actually signed off on their newest negotiated tv deal with NBC yet.

[Stormeo]

a Pac update: at least one formal offer – most likely an Amazon/ESPN package deal, though who really knows for sure? – is supposed to be shown to the Pac presidents by the end of this week, and perhaps even by the end of today. if enough presidents favor it (at least 8 of them will have to), something will be officially signed off on sometime in April, and we’ll mostly hear crickets until then.

but if it’s not viewed favorably – or certainly if it doesn’t come at all during this time – things will publicly deteriorate quicker than they basically already are… well, just keep your popcorn on standby i suppose. 🍿👍

the Pac’s mbb tourney is set to kick off in a couple hours today. i wonder what Commissioner Kliavkoff will have to say in the presser. (probably nothing if that’s in fact what he has lmao)

[Michael]

[Stormeo]

i’m not sure how ND being contractually obligated to join the ACC for football should they decide to join a conference makes ND’s case worse than FSU’s or Clemson’s with them already being in it. seems like it would depend on what the actual central legal argument is (at least for those schools that play football in the ACC) to getting out early.

ultimately no one knows what exactly they’d argue in court, but if they thought they’d have any sort of chance, it would at least get to that point.

and working out some sort of unequal revenue sharing agreement mid-deal doesn’t seem like a solution that’s gonna pan out either, particularly if the “lower-tier” schools aren’t on board with it. even if they were, there’s so only so much extra money in the current deal that can be reallocated to the noisiest schools. it would still pale in comparison to the SEC’s and B1G’s.

if the reps from these noisier schools continue to make a public stink about it all, either it’ll be out of complete desperation with nothing else going them, or it’ll be a sign that there’s growing belief they can somehow do it. still a pretty uphill battle for them even if it is legally challengeable.

[ArtBest23]

I don't think ND's case to get out would be any worse than the other members, but I suspect their interest in leaving is much less. Their current situation is ideal as they get to maintain football independence and I believe they would likely only leave if (a) the ACC was falling apart because others depart or (b) they get locked out of a CFB playoff (which isn't going to happen). And if either of those happened it would probably provide a basis for ND to leave too.

[Michael]

[ArtBest23]

Gee, I didn't know Tucker Carlson was now spinning conference realignment yarns in his spare time.