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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021
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 Posted: 03/12/23 3:18 pm ::: |
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| Tally24 wrote: |
| Creme has seemed fairly certain that Stanford will be a one seed, and I need it explained to me like a kindergartner. I haven’t done many CE hours on bracketology. 🤫 |
He has them at a 2-seed right now so.........
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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| Posted: 03/12/23 3:43 pm ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
no idea how the committee views winning the conference tournament as it relates to who’s getting the 1 seeds. we know that undefeated South Carolina (NET: 1) will be #1 overall.
Who ya got for the other three spots?
UConn – NET: 2, 29-5, won Big East tourney;
Stanford – NET: 4, 28-5, did not win Pac-12 tourney
Indiana – NET: 5, 27-3, did not win Big Ten tourney
Iowa – NET: 6, 26-6, won Big Ten tourney
Virginia Tech – NET: 9, 27-4, won ACC tourney
LSU (NET: 3), Utah (NET: 7), and Notre Dame (NET:  round out the missing single-digit NETers – though none of them are getting any 1-seed buzz, nor will the winner of the Big 12 tourney. |
In addition, here's record vs. NET Top 25, record vs. NET Top 50, NET ranking of losses outside the top 50, and date of that loss, respectively (I calculated these records some days ago, so some teams may have shifted; please correct as needed):
UConn - 11-3, 14-4, 55, 2/21
Stanford - 9-3, 15-4, 68, 2/5
Indiana - 6-2, 14-3, n/a, n/a
Iowa - 6-4, 12-5, 67, 11/17
Virginia Tech - 10-2, 12-3, 58, 12/29
Each team besides Stanford (also) has a loss against a team NET 40-50.
It won't surprise me if the more recent bad losses by UConn and Stanford move them to the 2 line. Indiana and Iowa only won 6 games against the NET top 25, with Iowa only winning 60% of their NET top 25 games.
I think these teams deserve to be 2 through 6 and that Indiana deserves to be a 1 seed. As a whole, I think Iowa's resume is least impressive, but winning the Big 10 tournament and having Clark on their team will likely work in their favor.
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
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| Posted: 03/12/23 3:46 pm ::: |
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if they think winning the conference tournament matters more, it should probably be UConn, Iowa, and VT.
i could see them not picking UConn for political reasons, such as if they want to avoid any outcry about them deserving a 1 seed lol. again, sadly one must consider everything here when predicting this shit.
otherwise, i personally would pick Indiana, Iowa, and VT just for funsies. 🙂
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 03/12/23 4:27 pm ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| Stormeo wrote: |
| Stormeo wrote: |
| the NET system starts to look a bit sus to me when a team like Oregon (14-12 [5-10 conf.], losers of 6-straight) remains in the Top 30 |
Oregon's still firmly a bubble team at 16-13 but is #18 in the NET, so again how legitimate is this rankings system? |
That's actually the example I most often see raised by articles questioning the validity and common sense of the NET formula.
And if the two "reveals" are an actual indication, the Committee isn't paying much attention to its own proprietary metric. |
Unfortunately for ND, injuries are very much a part of the seeding. ND better put up a flag for the regular season ACC championship, because that's all she wrote. |
I'm interested in seeing how the committee treats ND and the injury to Miles.
I'm thinking that they will drop down to a 4 seed and wouldn't be surprised if they are the overall 16 seed.
I think they will stay top 16 just so that they can host. With the fan base and experience of hosting, I think the NCAA will want to keep them there.
If Miles is out, I think that they are lower than a 16 seed. Will the committee take a chance that she is playing and move them up to a 3 seed? I keep thinking back to 1998 and Stanford losing to Harvard. I'm not convinced that the committee takes too kindly to teams that withhold vital injury info. |
You seem to overlook that ND has played 3 games without Miles. They played over a half and came back from a double digit deficit to beat Louisville on the road to win the ACC regular season. They beat a very good NCSt team they had previously lost to. And they shot like crap, turned the ball over, and lost to Louisville in the ACC Tournament.
They could easily have lost to Louisville even with Miles. Indeed, they're in very good company. SCar is the ONLY P5 #1 seed to win their tournament. PAC, B10, B12 and ND as the ACC #1 all lost. Indeed Iowa was even the only 2 seed to win. And now ND has had some time to actually plan, prepare and practice for life without Miles.
You're being far far too harsh. I expect they will still be a 3.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/23 4:45 pm ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
no idea how the committee views winning the conference tournament as it relates to who’s getting the 1 seeds. we know that undefeated South Carolina (NET: 1) will be #1 overall.
Who ya got for the other three spots? |
Who will it be? Connecticut, Indiana, Iowa
Who would I pick? Connecticut, Stanford, Virginia Tech
The B10 is overrated. They're barely better than the BEast.
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 03/12/23 4:46 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| Ex-Ref wrote: |
| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| Stormeo wrote: |
| Stormeo wrote: |
| the NET system starts to look a bit sus to me when a team like Oregon (14-12 [5-10 conf.], losers of 6-straight) remains in the Top 30 |
Oregon's still firmly a bubble team at 16-13 but is #18 in the NET, so again how legitimate is this rankings system? |
That's actually the example I most often see raised by articles questioning the validity and common sense of the NET formula.
And if the two "reveals" are an actual indication, the Committee isn't paying much attention to its own proprietary metric. |
Unfortunately for ND, injuries are very much a part of the seeding. ND better put up a flag for the regular season ACC championship, because that's all she wrote. |
I'm interested in seeing how the committee treats ND and the injury to Miles.
I'm thinking that they will drop down to a 4 seed and wouldn't be surprised if they are the overall 16 seed.
I think they will stay top 16 just so that they can host. With the fan base and experience of hosting, I think the NCAA will want to keep them there.
If Miles is out, I think that they are lower than a 16 seed. Will the committee take a chance that she is playing and move them up to a 3 seed? I keep thinking back to 1998 and Stanford losing to Harvard. I'm not convinced that the committee takes too kindly to teams that withhold vital injury info. |
You seem to overlook that ND has played 3 games without Miles. They played over a half and came back from a double digit deficit to beat Louisville on the road to win the ACC regular season. They beat a very good NCSt team they had previously lost to. And they shot like crap, turned the ball over, and lost to Louisville in the ACC Tournament.
They could easily have lost to Louisville even with Miles. Indeed, they're in very good company. SCar is the ONLY P5 #1 seed to win their tournament. PAC, B10, B12 and ND as the ACC #1 all lost. Indeed Iowa was even the only 2 seed to win. And now ND has had some time to actually plan, prepare and practice for life without Miles.
You're being far far too harsh. I expect they will still be a 3. |
I'm fully aware of what ND has done. I'm also fully aware of how the committee has screwed ND in the past.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/12/23 5:02 pm ::: |
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Mississippi St may be the toughest team to predict. I don't know if a team that was over .500 in the SEC ever failed to make the tournament since there have been 64 or 68 teams. Their best road win is over Florida. Their best non-conference win was over Colorado St. I certainly don't see them as safely in the way Creme does (6th last in).
I believe Miami and Marquette are both in easily. I think Columbia deserves very strong consideration. And even though Kansas won at Arizona I still believe that West Virginia, with a better record than the Jayhawks in the regular season, deserves the bid more.
Finally Oregon is in a very interesting situation. 19 in the NET but with a shaky resume. They only have 2 losses to teams that are not in the tournament (Oregon St and Washington, both on the road) and they have three wins over tourney teams (Portland, USC and Arizona.)
So I will take Columbia, Oregon and West Virginia instead of Charlie Creme's picks of Mississippi St, Kansas and St John's.
I will pick West Virginia and Columbia to make the field over Mississippi St and Kansas.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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| Posted: 03/12/23 5:28 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
Finally Oregon is in a very interesting situation. 19 in the NET but with a shaky resume. They only have 2 losses to teams that are not in the tournament (Oregon St and Washington, both on the road) and they have three wins over tourney teams (Portland, USC and Arizona.)
So I will take Columbia, Oregon and West Virginia instead of Charlie Creme's picks of Mississippi St, Kansas and St John's.
I will pick West Virginia and Columbia to make the field over Mississippi St and Kansas. |
What makes you take those three over St John's?
St Johns also has three wins over tourney teams in UConn, Creighton, and Marquette, which is a more impressive set of victories than Oregon's. St Johns only lost to one team that won't be in the tournament (Seton Hall, twice) and I think each teams pair of "bad" losses basically cancel out.
Columbia has two wins over tourney teams in Princeton and Miami, a less impressive slate than St Johns, and also has (much) worse losses in Penn and Vanderbilt. West Virginia does have wins over four or five tourney teams in Iowa State, Baylor (twice), Georgia, Oklahoma State, and Kansas, but also worse losses than St Johns in Penn St and Texas Tech. I can see West Virginia over St Johns, but not Oregon or Columbia (based on their resumes).
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singinerd54
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NYSports56
Joined: 03 Jul 2018
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| Posted: 03/12/23 5:44 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| Queenie wrote: |
| if getting swept by Seton Hall costs St. John's a tournament berth, I may die laughing, remember me with what fondness you can muster |
Creme keeps moving St. John's around and they are last 4 in as of this morning. I just don't know if they'll take 5 teams from the Big East. |
One thing SJ has going for it is that they are in a huge TV market.
Mickey Mouse may be calling whomever his contact person is in Indianappolis to explain the difference between NYC and Starkville. |
St. John's does play in a large TV market, but that market may have less interest in college sports per capita than any other market in the country. New York is a largely a pro sports town.
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undersized_post
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Howee
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 03/12/23 6:48 pm ::: |
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| NYSports56 wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| Queenie wrote: |
| if getting swept by Seton Hall costs St. John's a tournament berth, I may die laughing, remember me with what fondness you can muster |
Creme keeps moving St. John's around and they are last 4 in as of this morning. I just don't know if they'll take 5 teams from the Big East. |
One thing SJ has going for it is that they are in a huge TV market.
Mickey Mouse may be calling whomever his contact person is in Indianappolis to explain the difference between NYC and Starkville. |
St. John's does play in a large TV market, but that market may have less interest in college sports per capita than any other market in the country. New York is a largely a pro sports town. |
But they have 1000 capitas for every Starkville capita. And the real advantage is that NYC is a media center and WCBB will get more exposure. They support their college basketball teams.
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/23 6:59 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| NYSports56 wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| Queenie wrote: |
| if getting swept by Seton Hall costs St. John's a tournament berth, I may die laughing, remember me with what fondness you can muster |
Creme keeps moving St. John's around and they are last 4 in as of this morning. I just don't know if they'll take 5 teams from the Big East. |
One thing SJ has going for it is that they are in a huge TV market.
Mickey Mouse may be calling whomever his contact person is in Indianappolis to explain the difference between NYC and Starkville. |
St. John's does play in a large TV market, but that market may have less interest in college sports per capita than any other market in the country. New York is a largely a pro sports town. |
But they have 1000 capitas for every Starkville capita. And the real advantage is that NYC is a media center and WCBB will get more exposure. They support their college basketball teams. |
You... you think NYC supports St. John's women's basketball.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAH AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA OH MY GOD HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA you're funny
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/12/23 7:03 pm ::: |
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| singinerd54 wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
Finally Oregon is in a very interesting situation. 19 in the NET but with a shaky resume. They only have 2 losses to teams that are not in the tournament (Oregon St and Washington, both on the road) and they have three wins over tourney teams (Portland, USC and Arizona.)
So I will take Columbia, Oregon and West Virginia instead of Charlie Creme's picks of Mississippi St, Kansas and St John's.
I will pick West Virginia and Columbia to make the field over Mississippi St and Kansas. |
What makes you take those three over St John's?
St Johns also has three wins over tourney teams in UConn, Creighton, and Marquette, which is a more impressive set of victories than Oregon's. St Johns only lost to one team that won't be in the tournament (Seton Hall, twice) and I think each teams pair of "bad" losses basically cancel out.
Columbia has two wins over tourney teams in Princeton and Miami, a less impressive slate than St Johns, and also has (much) worse losses in Penn and Vanderbilt. West Virginia does have wins over four or five tourney teams in Iowa State, Baylor (twice), Georgia, Oklahoma State, and Kansas, but also worse losses than St Johns in Penn St and Texas Tech. I can see West Virginia over St Johns, but not Oregon or Columbia (based on their resumes). |
Your points are well taken. As it relates to St John's I don't value their win over UConn because of all the injuries they had at the time. This is very subjective bnut that is wyhat all the prognostications are about. I believe that if there is any relevance to the NET (and I think there is) then their #19 ranking matters (not a lot, but just enough. As for West Virginia"s losses, I believe that for the last few teams in the tourney the wins are more important than the losses. But these are all close calls. We will see in a minute.
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NYSports56
Joined: 03 Jul 2018
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| Posted: 03/12/23 7:04 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| NYSports56 wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| Queenie wrote: |
| if getting swept by Seton Hall costs St. John's a tournament berth, I may die laughing, remember me with what fondness you can muster |
Creme keeps moving St. John's around and they are last 4 in as of this morning. I just don't know if they'll take 5 teams from the Big East. |
One thing SJ has going for it is that they are in a huge TV market.
Mickey Mouse may be calling whomever his contact person is in Indianappolis to explain the difference between NYC and Starkville. |
St. John's does play in a large TV market, but that market may have less interest in college sports per capita than any other market in the country. New York is a largely a pro sports town. |
But they have 1000 capitas for every Starkville capita. And the real advantage is that NYC is a media center and WCBB will get more exposure. They support their college basketball teams. |
Granted; that's why I said per capita. My point was it's not nearly the difference you might imagine.
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calbearman76
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mikeyc22
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ucbart
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CBiebel
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| Posted: 03/12/23 7:57 pm ::: |
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| Happy ND is at #3. As for which region they're in, not so much, but what can you do?
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Queenie
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summertime blues
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| Posted: 03/12/23 8:20 pm ::: |
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Once again the SelComm proves that what it says and what it does are totally different things. It’s obvious that NET means nothing, they play favorites, and I suspect (no proof, of course) that there could even be payola involved. (Yeah, I know, that’s a serious charge, but how else do explain some of this unless they’re all drunk or something?)
Some of these seedlings, not to mention some of the choices, make no sense whatsoever. Teams with worse W-L and lower NETs getting seeded higher than the reverse, not once , but multiple times. Teams that have no business being in the tournament at all getting in, while others have to play in. That kind of thing. And it’s an every year thing. Either this outfit needs replacing or the whole process needs to be rethought and perhaps put in other hands.
/Rant mode off
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/23 8:30 pm ::: |
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| i can haz WNIT field nao?
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singinerd54
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,
for Columbia