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okstateguy



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PostPosted: 07/02/22 9:24 am    ::: Conference Realignment and Womens Basketball Reply Reply with quote

With all the rumors providing ore clarity, and the real possibility that the B1G could dump Nebraska to keep an extra AAU school at the "Big kids" table, it's looking like major conferences are all headed towards. Running off an imperfect hypothetical (because Miami and one of Baylor/OK State/Va Tech are also likely to be SEC) looks like we could see:

B1G: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, UNC

SEC: Clemson, FSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss State, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, OU, TAMU, Texas

Big 12: BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, WVU, CIncy, UCF, Miami, Louisville

ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, UCONN, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Memphis, USF, Tulane

Mountain West: Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, SJSU, SDSU, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico, Cal State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State

Should be pretty close to the final result here, so just a few questions based on conferences, hypothetical at the moment:

1. Does womens basketball benefit from this round of realignment?
2. Which conference improves the most in womens basketball?
3. Does this give smaller schools (ex: Gonzaga) an opportunity to take a step forward by offering recruits more games in their own region?
4. Is there a nationally relevant womens program that could take serious steps back?
5. Is there a womens program that could be catapulted into national relevance with this round of realignment?



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Michael



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PostPosted: 07/02/22 3:45 pm    ::: Re: Conference Realignment and Womens Basketball Reply Reply with quote

okstateguy wrote:
With all the rumors providing ore clarity, and the real possibility that the B1G could dump Nebraska to keep an extra AAU school at the "Big kids" table, it's looking like major conferences are all headed towards. Running off an imperfect hypothetical (because Miami and one of Baylor/OK State/Va Tech are also likely to be SEC) looks like we could see:

B1G: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, UNC

SEC: Clemson, FSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss State, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, OU, TAMU, Texas

Big 12: BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, WVU, CIncy, UCF, Miami, Louisville

ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, UCONN, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Memphis, USF, Tulane

Mountain West: Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, SJSU, SDSU, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico, Cal State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State

Should be pretty close to the final result here, so just a few questions based on conferences, hypothetical at the moment:

1. Does womens basketball benefit from this round of realignment?
2. Which conference improves the most in womens basketball?
3. Does this give smaller schools (ex: Gonzaga) an opportunity to take a step forward by offering recruits more games in their own region?
4. Is there a nationally relevant womens program that could take serious steps back?
5. Is there a womens program that could be catapulted into national relevance with this round of realignment?


The BT won't dump Nebraska, the AAU loss of memebership was due to changing criteria that excluded the med school at UNLincoln from some formula and the BT is still working with Nebraska to find a workaround for that.

But you are thinking too small for the BT.... the jump will be to 20 first then 24 when the ACC implodes. Oregon and Washington have already asked for BT membership, and after they are accepted once ND makes their decision, the BT will pursue 1-2 other Pac schools that are AAU members, likely from the list of Utah, Az, or Colorado as they all add new TV markets and grow the Big Ten network deal whereas Stanford adds nothing to the BT coffers.

Then once FSU and Clemson leave the ACC, BT offers UVA, GaTech, ND if they are still on the outside and UNC. IF ND once again says no, we take Duke, the Pac team that got left out last time, or Kansas..... still all AAU members but ND.



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Michael
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PostPosted: 07/02/22 5:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

And at what point do these mega-conferences fission because of the strain of distance or different priorities?



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 07/02/22 7:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

at some point, why even have conferences?


Michael



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 8:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
And at what point do these mega-conferences fission because of the strain of distance or different priorities?



IF the BT goes this way, every school is an AAU member but 2, all sharing in a nearly 2 billion a year research consortium in addition to the athletic payouts. The BT expansion has not been reckless or without consideration of the academic side of the house, the only non-AAU member to be considered will be ND. Once we get to 24, 4 divisions of 6 teams each divided regionally will limit the travel issues as you will play most of your games against the other 5 teams in your division.

This is obviously about money and power, but the BT is not being reckless or haphazard about it either, and the 24 team mega conference it will become will be of like minded schools academically as well as athletically.



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Michael
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PostPosted: 07/03/22 8:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
at some point, why even have conferences?


The collective commands a lot more money from TV than an independent can.. Its why ND backed into their half assed admission to the ACC, they could not go it alone anymore and remain commercially viable.



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Michael
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PostPosted: 07/03/22 10:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Michael wrote:
Queenie wrote:
And at what point do these mega-conferences fission because of the strain of distance or different priorities?



IF the BT goes this way, every school is an AAU member but 2, all sharing in a nearly 2 billion a year research consortium in addition to the athletic payouts. The BT expansion has not been reckless or without consideration of the academic side of the house, the only non-AAU member to be considered will be ND. Once we get to 24, 4 divisions of 6 teams each divided regionally will limit the travel issues as you will play most of your games against the other 5 teams in your division.

This is obviously about money and power, but the BT is not being reckless or haphazard about it either, and the 24 team mega conference it will become will be of like minded schools academically as well as athletically.


If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


summertime blues



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 11:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Personally, I'm having trouble following all this. JMU just went to the Sun Belt after who knows how many years in the horrible CAA, and I have enough trouble figuring that out. Now THIS?



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 12:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 1:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:
ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?


Or the top 16 teams go to the tourney. How often does a cellar dweller, say a record of .250 or less, get a conference's auto-bid anyway?


Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 3:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?


Or the top 16 teams go to the tourney. How often does a cellar dweller, say a record of .250 or less, get a conference's auto-bid anyway?


Not often. But why take that opportunity away from them?

How are you going to determine the top 16 teams? Everybody play everybody once? There's 23 games of your total allotment for the year.



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“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.
undersized_post



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 5:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?


Or the top 16 teams go to the tourney. How often does a cellar dweller, say a record of .250 or less, get a conference's auto-bid anyway?


Not often. But why take that opportunity away from them?

How are you going to determine the top 16 teams? Everybody play everybody once? There's 23 games of your total allotment for the year.


Excluding the dungeon dwellers from the conference tournament in an excessively large conference is a totally reasonable idea to me. This already happens with certain sports and conferences, such as Big Ten softball. Yeah, it's too bad the worst teams miss the opportunity, but on the plus side, it actually adds a bit more buzz around regular season games that no one would otherwise care about, since a conference tourney bid is on the line.



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 5:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

undersized_post wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?


Or the top 16 teams go to the tourney. How often does a cellar dweller, say a record of .250 or less, get a conference's auto-bid anyway?


Not often. But why take that opportunity away from them?

How are you going to determine the top 16 teams? Everybody play everybody once? There's 23 games of your total allotment for the year.


Excluding the dungeon dwellers from the conference tournament in an excessively large conference is a totally reasonable idea to me. This already happens with certain sports and conferences, such as Big Ten softball. Yeah, it's too bad the worst teams miss the opportunity, but on the plus side, it actually adds a bit more buzz around regular season games that no one would otherwise care about, since a conference tourney bid is on the line.


How much buzz is there in mid-Feb. for games between IL, Rutgers and WI vs. OSU, Iowa and Mich?

Zero.



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"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw

“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.
undersized_post



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 8:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:
undersized_post wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?


Or the top 16 teams go to the tourney. How often does a cellar dweller, say a record of .250 or less, get a conference's auto-bid anyway?


Not often. But why take that opportunity away from them?

How are you going to determine the top 16 teams? Everybody play everybody once? There's 23 games of your total allotment for the year.


Excluding the dungeon dwellers from the conference tournament in an excessively large conference is a totally reasonable idea to me. This already happens with certain sports and conferences, such as Big Ten softball. Yeah, it's too bad the worst teams miss the opportunity, but on the plus side, it actually adds a bit more buzz around regular season games that no one would otherwise care about, since a conference tourney bid is on the line.


How much buzz is there in mid-Feb. for games between IL, Rutgers and WI vs. OSU, Iowa and Mich?

Zero.


Not among general fans obviously, but for fans of the specific conferences it's interesting, and, most importantly, for the players themselves, there's something you're actually playing towards.



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 07/03/22 8:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

undersized_post wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
undersized_post wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
ucbart wrote:
If the B1G and SEC both get to 24 teams, do they abolish the conference tournaments? How would you even attempt to have them?


Maybe have two 12-team tourneys - east and west (or seed them like the NCAAT), then have the winners meet to decide a champion and NCAAT auto-bid?


Or the top 16 teams go to the tourney. How often does a cellar dweller, say a record of .250 or less, get a conference's auto-bid anyway?


Not often. But why take that opportunity away from them?

How are you going to determine the top 16 teams? Everybody play everybody once? There's 23 games of your total allotment for the year.


Excluding the dungeon dwellers from the conference tournament in an excessively large conference is a totally reasonable idea to me. This already happens with certain sports and conferences, such as Big Ten softball. Yeah, it's too bad the worst teams miss the opportunity, but on the plus side, it actually adds a bit more buzz around regular season games that no one would otherwise care about, since a conference tourney bid is on the line.


How much buzz is there in mid-Feb. for games between IL, Rutgers and WI vs. OSU, Iowa and Mich?

Zero.


Not among general fans obviously, but for fans of the specific conferences it's interesting, and, most importantly, for the players themselves, there's something you're actually playing towards.


Why so against letting ALL conf. teams play in the CONF. tourney?



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"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw

“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.
Michael



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PostPosted: 07/04/22 3:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

24 team conference playoff, first round top 8 teams get byes, other 16 play and then its just a 16 team single elimination tournament. Its no more cumbersome than what the BT has been doing for years with 14 teams.



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PostPosted: 07/04/22 5:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
at some point, why even have conferences?


I'd be more aggressive. Why even have colleges.

I'd estimate college is a gigantic waste of time and money for at least 50% of the attendees, leaving most with nothing more than decades of debt. Post-high school, there should be a great expansion of old-time trade schools, which will do a lot more career good for most people than some wishy-washy liberal arts major, plus direct entry into professional schools for licensed and STEM occupations such as nurses, doctors, lawyers, engineers, computer programmers, etc.

Then we can leave the few remaining colleges to the football players and other full-boated and NIL-ed athletes.
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PostPosted: 07/04/22 5:36 pm    ::: Re: Conference Realignment and Womens Basketball Reply Reply with quote

Michael wrote:
Utah, Az, or Colorado as they all add new TV markets and grow the Big Ten network deal whereas Stanford adds nothing to the BT coffers.
.

Stanford is in the Bay Area which at 7.7 million people has around five times the population of states like Iowa or Nebraska. If you only need one team per state then the Big 10 should drop one of Michigan/Michigan State and USC/UCLA.


undersized_post



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PostPosted: 07/04/22 5:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Michael wrote:
24 team conference playoff, first round top 8 teams get byes, other 16 play and then its just a 16 team single elimination tournament. Its no more cumbersome than what the BT has been doing for years with 14 teams.


So to win the tournament you'd have to play 4 games in 4 days, or 5 days in 5 days, as a lower seed? For the round of 16, you're going to fit in 8 games in a single day in a single venue? Or spread those games across two days? Who gets the off day between rounds 1 and 2? Or you're going to use two different venues for a conference tournament? Why would coaches want to put their players through that grueling schedule, just a week before the more important NCAA Tournament?

My point is, it's not as straightforward as you make it sound. The current Big Ten Tournament (and SEC and ACC too, I believe) format gives the top 4 teams the advantage of having the double bye and only having to play 3 games in 3 days to win it. To simulate this advantage in a 24 team field, you'd have to have an elaborate system of single, double, and even triples byes.

Ex-Ref wrote:
Why so against letting ALL conf. teams play in the CONF. tourney?


I'm not "so against it" in principle, and I apologize if I'm giving that impression. I'm just pointing out that, a) it's not the norm in some sports and conferences, b) there would be some logistical hurdles to overcome to make it work, and c) questioning if there's even any benefit in it.



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Last edited by undersized_post on 07/04/22 5:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
tfan



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PostPosted: 07/04/22 5:40 pm    ::: Re: Conference Realignment and Womens Basketball Reply Reply with quote

okstateguy wrote:


B1G: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, UNC

SEC: Clemson, FSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss State, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, OU, TAMU, Texas

Big 12: BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, WVU, CIncy, UCF, Miami, Louisville

ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, UCONN, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Memphis, USF, Tulane

Mountain West: Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, SJSU, SDSU, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico, Cal State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State


Why would the PAC-12, with it's own TV network and a recent history of growing not survive, when the no network Big-12 survived after losing it's star schools?


okstateguy



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PostPosted: 07/05/22 2:19 am    ::: Re: Conference Realignment and Womens Basketball Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
okstateguy wrote:


B1G: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, UNC

SEC: Clemson, FSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss State, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, OU, TAMU, Texas

Big 12: BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, WVU, CIncy, UCF, Miami, Louisville

ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, UCONN, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Memphis, USF, Tulane

Mountain West: Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, SJSU, SDSU, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico, Cal State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State


Why would the PAC-12, with it's own TV network and a recent history of growing not survive, when the no network Big-12 survived after losing it's star schools?


The PAC is hampered by the timezone and being in markets that don't prioritize PAC football viewership. Over the past 5 years, Oregon has increased tv viewership, but USC and several others have stalled or declined. 5 of the PAC's teams finished with a lower viewership average than Kansas, the current Big 12 cellar dweller in that regard. The Big 12 has better time zones, markets that will watch Big 12 football, and teams that attract viewers at a higher rate than PAC schools, even in games when the "big boys" of the conference are not involved. Without Oregon/USC/UCLA, the PAC is likely losing it's tv deal and a big chunk of revenue. The Big 12 without OU/Texas is expected to start out around their current payout levels and increase. That is why I believe the PAC will not survive. I'll attach 2 links that helped me reach this belief.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2021-49ef4f315858



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PostPosted: 07/06/22 2:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

UConn would never go to the ACC if it looked like that. If anything they would look to get into the B1G or stay put in the Big East.


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PostPosted: 07/06/22 2:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Stonington_QB wrote:
UConn would never go to the ACC if it looked like that. If anything they would look to get into the B1G or stay put in the Big East.


The B1G isn't about to add the worst football team in the FBS



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PostPosted: 07/06/22 4:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Stonington_QB wrote:
UConn would never go to the ACC if it looked like that. If anything they would look to get into the B1G or stay put in the Big East.


The B1G isn't about to add the worst football team in the FBS


They already did that when they took Rutgers. Adding UConn would increase interest in the conference from the NY market and they are certainly after that.

UConn might have gone to the ACC in the past. If it becomes a deadweight conference as illustrated in the OP, why on Earth would they go now? To rejoin Boston College?


undersized_post



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PostPosted: 07/06/22 11:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado seem to be headed to the Big 12.

"There are only ten #Pac12 schools left, and told by three different east coast media there will be less before they can even add anyone. Two of the three believe strongly that #Utes, #Buffs, #SunDevils and #BearDown heading to the #Big12, and as soon as this week."
https://twitter.com/gswaim/status/1542988129015140352?s=21&t=vYilMdX5T9x5rARrrLnipQ



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