| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
lynxmania
Joined: 18 Feb 2011
Posts: 10697
Location: Minnesota
Back to top |
|
ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 2815
Location: New York
Back to top |
 Posted: 06/30/22 2:30 pm ::: Re: Big 10/Pac 12 Movement |
Reply  |
|
This is going to be the final domino that makes it all go to shit. The Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12 are about to be decimated.
These are all very real possibilities in the next 5-7 years.
**ND will have to join a conference in football(the B1G)
**The SEC is going to poach Clemson and either FSU Or Miami and maybe some SEC schools
**The B1G will add UNC and two other ACC schools
|
|
PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 16358
Location: Chicago
Back to top |
| Posted: 06/30/22 5:46 pm ::: Re: Big 10/Pac 12 Movement |
Reply |
|
| ucbart wrote: |
**The B1G will add UNC and two other ACC schools |
I think you could be right about UNC. UVA and Colorado feel like the other clearest fits (if conferences still have any sort of identity at that point).
|
|
Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
Posts: 8942
Back to top |
|
Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
Posts: 8942
Back to top |
| Posted: 06/30/22 8:22 pm ::: Re: Big 10/Pac 12 Movement |
Reply |
|
| ucbart wrote: |
This is going to be the final domino that makes it all go to shit. The Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12 are about to be decimated.
These are all very real possibilities in the next 5-7 years.
**ND will have to join a conference in football(the B1G)
**The SEC is going to poach Clemson and either FSU Or Miami and maybe some SEC schools
**The B1G will add UNC and two other ACC schools |
Not sure where you're going with that.
_________________
"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw
“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.
|
|
Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15734
Location: OREGON (in my heart)
Back to top |
|
Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 18029
Location: Queens
Back to top |
|
okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
Posts: 453
Location: Oklahoma
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 1:41 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Interesting this is leaking after more positive news in terms of the PAC and ACC expected future revenues. IMO, the potential fall of the PAC/ACC only strengthens the chances of the Big 12 expanding in quality of markets and tv deal value. I think a very real possibility when all the dust settles is this:
Big 12: Oregon, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU, OK State, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Cincy, West Virginia, UCF, Louisville, UNC
B1G: UCLA, USC, Stanford, California, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
SEC: TAMU, Texas, OU, Arkansas, Mizzou, LSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, FSU, Florida, Miami, Va Tech
ACC: Syracuse, Boston College, NC State, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Memphis, USF, Temple, Tulane, UCONN
Mountain West: Washington State, Oregon State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State, Air Force, Boise State, Cal State, Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, Utah State, Wyoming
However, this decision could also make schools like Cal, Stanford, Boston College, Syracuse drop football altogether, which obviously creates even more chaos to an overwhelmingly chaotic mess of a world college sports is living in.
_________________
okstateguy
|
|
elsie
Joined: 08 Apr 2016
Posts: 276
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 3:09 am ::: |
Reply |
|
I saw this coming a long time ago...when they started talking about paying players as if a scholarship isn't a form of a big payout....then the NIL....omg why people didn't see that load of garbage....
of course they were going to make superconferences....
and of course this will ultimately mean more universities will opt out of playing football/basketball at all....
why try to compete when all the money is centered in so few hands, and the players wanted this, now they got this.....ultimately fewer young people will get the chance to play because colleges will stop having teams...
pretty much done with it all....
you know what's nice?....track...ladies track and field....not nearly the hulabaloo and the athletes are somewhat decent ....
major college sports is basically pro sports now.....
|
|
elsie
Joined: 08 Apr 2016
Posts: 276
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 3:11 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| yes....colleges will drop sports....I don't blame them...its a pathetic outcome from greed greed greed.....
|
|
ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 2815
Location: New York
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 7:03 am ::: Re: Big 10/Pac 12 Movement |
Reply |
|
| Ex-Ref wrote: |
| ucbart wrote: |
This is going to be the final domino that makes it all go to shit. The Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12 are about to be decimated.
These are all very real possibilities in the next 5-7 years.
**ND will have to join a conference in football(the B1G)
**The SEC is going to poach Clemson and either FSU Or Miami and maybe some SEC schools
**The B1G will add UNC and two other ACC schools |
Not sure where you're going with that. |
OOPS! I meant Big 12.
|
|
ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 2815
Location: New York
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 7:06 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| okstateguy wrote: |
Interesting this is leaking after more positive news in terms of the PAC and ACC expected future revenues. IMO, the potential fall of the PAC/ACC only strengthens the chances of the Big 12 expanding in quality of markets and tv deal value. I think a very real possibility when all the dust settles is this:
Big 12: Oregon, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU, OK State, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Cincy, West Virginia, UCF, Louisville, UNC
B1G: UCLA, USC, Stanford, California, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
SEC: TAMU, Texas, OU, Arkansas, Mizzou, LSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, FSU, Florida, Miami, Va Tech
ACC: Syracuse, Boston College, NC State, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Memphis, USF, Temple, Tulane, UCONN
Mountain West: Washington State, Oregon State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State, Air Force, Boise State, Cal State, Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, Utah State, Wyoming
However, this decision could also make schools like Cal, Stanford, Boston College, Syracuse drop football altogether, which obviously creates even more chaos to an overwhelmingly chaotic mess of a world college sports is living in. |
Could you imagine this being something this could happen 20 years ago? IMO, there is 0 way Oregon doesn't go to the B1G. Oregon has Phil Knight/Nike in their pocket. He will see to it that Oregon is in the best shape of anyone.
|
|
okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
Posts: 453
Location: Oklahoma
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 2:03 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| ucbart wrote: |
| okstateguy wrote: |
Interesting this is leaking after more positive news in terms of the PAC and ACC expected future revenues. IMO, the potential fall of the PAC/ACC only strengthens the chances of the Big 12 expanding in quality of markets and tv deal value. I think a very real possibility when all the dust settles is this:
Big 12: Oregon, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU, OK State, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Cincy, West Virginia, UCF, Louisville, UNC
B1G: UCLA, USC, Stanford, California, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
SEC: TAMU, Texas, OU, Arkansas, Mizzou, LSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, FSU, Florida, Miami, Va Tech
ACC: Syracuse, Boston College, NC State, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Memphis, USF, Temple, Tulane, UCONN
Mountain West: Washington State, Oregon State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State, Air Force, Boise State, Cal State, Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, Utah State, Wyoming
However, this decision could also make schools like Cal, Stanford, Boston College, Syracuse drop football altogether, which obviously creates even more chaos to an overwhelmingly chaotic mess of a world college sports is living in. |
Could you imagine this being something this could happen 20 years ago? IMO, there is 0 way Oregon doesn't go to the B1G. Oregon has Phil Knight/Nike in their pocket. He will see to it that Oregon is in the best shape of anyone. |
I think the B1G will take Washington over Oregon because Washington needs it to remain at the "big kid table". Oregon would have no problem finding that position. But if it's just about money, Oregon is B1G bound. All that said, it's absolutely unfathomable that it's reached this point so quickly. Amateur sports is officially dead.
_________________
okstateguy
|
|
GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8225
Location: Heisenberg
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 2:38 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| elsie wrote: |
you know what's nice?....track...ladies track and field....not nearly the hulabaloo and the athletes are somewhat decent .... |
Always been my favorite women's sport, now probably more than ever. Favorite men's sport, too. |
|
Michael
Joined: 23 Mar 2006
Posts: 601
Back to top |
| Posted: 07/01/22 7:38 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| okstateguy wrote: |
| ucbart wrote: |
| okstateguy wrote: |
Interesting this is leaking after more positive news in terms of the PAC and ACC expected future revenues. IMO, the potential fall of the PAC/ACC only strengthens the chances of the Big 12 expanding in quality of markets and tv deal value. I think a very real possibility when all the dust settles is this:
Big 12: Oregon, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU, OK State, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Cincy, West Virginia, UCF, Louisville, UNC
B1G: UCLA, USC, Stanford, California, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
SEC: TAMU, Texas, OU, Arkansas, Mizzou, LSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, FSU, Florida, Miami, Va Tech
ACC: Syracuse, Boston College, NC State, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Memphis, USF, Temple, Tulane, UCONN
Mountain West: Washington State, Oregon State, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State, Air Force, Boise State, Cal State, Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, Utah State, Wyoming
However, this decision could also make schools like Cal, Stanford, Boston College, Syracuse drop football altogether, which obviously creates even more chaos to an overwhelmingly chaotic mess of a world college sports is living in. |
Could you imagine this being something this could happen 20 years ago? IMO, there is 0 way Oregon doesn't go to the B1G. Oregon has Phil Knight/Nike in their pocket. He will see to it that Oregon is in the best shape of anyone. |
I think the B1G will take Washington over Oregon because Washington needs it to remain at the "big kid table". Oregon would have no problem finding that position. But if it's just about money, Oregon is B1G bound. All that said, it's absolutely unfathomable that it's reached this point so quickly. Amateur sports is officially dead. |
The problem here for Stanford and Cal is the Big Ten won't want them, they add no new eyeballs for the Big Ten network. Oregon and Washington are slam dunks if they apply, ND and Maybe UNC fill the conference out to 20.
_________________
Michael
|
|
Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 4701
Back to top |
| Posted: 11/07/22 3:56 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
https://twitter.com/dpshow/status/1589647167685550080
| Quote: |
| Source: San Diego State is expected to join the Pac 12. Announcement could be made as early as this week. |
For the record: I don’t at all believe this is a done deal yet, but the likelihood of it eventually happening would certainly increase if the UC Board of Regents definitively permits UCLA (even if conditionally) to move to the Big Ten, on the 17th.
But if UCLA improbably ends up being forced the stay in the Pac, the Pac imo wouldn’t need SDSU quite yet, especially if the Big Ten takes another Pac school (my guess would be Stanford to make yet another play at Notre Dame, whom everyone wants) and SDSU would still only be the Pac’s 11th school. Should be noted that the Mountain West’s Grant of Rights ends in July of 2026, in which a buyout would very likely have to take place if SDSU were to join another conference earlier than that.
|
|
okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
Posts: 453
Location: Oklahoma
Back to top |
| Posted: 11/07/22 5:51 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Stormeo wrote: |
https://twitter.com/dpshow/status/1589647167685550080
| Quote: |
| Source: San Diego State is expected to join the Pac 12. Announcement could be made as early as this week. |
For the record: I don’t at all believe this is a done deal yet, but the likelihood of it eventually happening would certainly increase if the UC Board of Regents definitively permits UCLA (even if conditionally) to move to the Big Ten, on the 17th.
But if UCLA improbably ends up being forced the stay in the Pac, the Pac imo wouldn’t need SDSU quite yet, especially if the Big Ten takes another Pac school (my guess would be Stanford to make yet another play at Notre Dame, whom everyone wants) and SDSU would still only be the Pac’s 11th school. Should be noted that the Mountain West’s Grant of Rights ends in July of 2026, in which a buyout would very likely have to take place if SDSU were to join another conference earlier than that. |
The PAC does need SDSU because it's a win that George desperately needs. If UCLA is forced to stay, then B1G will just take USC, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. Then the Big 12 will take the pro rata "free raid pass" handed to them by ESPN to take the 4 corner schools, then George will be unemployed.
_________________
okstateguy
|
|
Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 4701
Back to top |
| Posted: 11/07/22 6:07 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
I understand that argument, but to me, Kliavkoff’s focus needs to be getting the most money per school in the next media rights deal – something at least as big as the Big 12’s that Washington & Oregon would be willing to sign their names to. There’ll be more money per school with 10 than with 12, so he seriously ought to consider just staying at 10, especially if that’s the difference between being competitive with the Big 12’s deal or not. Getting at least 10 Pac teams (pre-existing or otherwise) to sign a GOR would be the real big win. And I’m not sure I see a scenario where it makes sense for the Pac to have 11 schools.
It becomes a no-brainer if it’s determined that SDSU’s addition would actually elevate the values of the other schools, but that’s something no one seems to be speculating upon, at least.
|
|
okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
Posts: 453
Location: Oklahoma
Back to top |
| Posted: 11/10/22 6:34 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
The PAC has 4 issues they have to overcome:
1. They have to match or equal the payout of the Big 12
2. They need to be given a pro rata clause by ESPN
3. They need to somehow match or exceed their current cable lineup
4. They need to include a buyout for teams who leave
The only schools I'm sure would sign a GoR including a buyout would likely be Oregon State and Washington State. ESPN just increased the cable exposure of the Sun Belt, added 2 more teams to the SEC, a net gain of 2 to the Big 12, and increased the total teams in the AAC. I do not look for the PAC to be able to match their current cable opportunities, which leads to less visibility(ask NFL how Thursday Night Football on Prime has affected ratings). ESPN will not be giving the PAC a pro rata clause. ESPN gave the Big 12 one, and FOX did not to have the ability to negotiate new members. It's clear that both networks are fine with the Big 12 taking the more valuable PAC schools. Even if they matched the payout of the Big 12, the Big 12's pro rata clause would likely mean that the likes of Oregon/Washington/etc could actually come to the Big 12 and increase that payout, while having more cable opportunities and higher payouts for March Madness and CFP. I would venture to say that Oregon and Washington alone could move the ESPN portion of the Big 12 payout closer to 30, while also increasing the FOX payout. I just don't see any viable way forward for the PAC unless Amazon or Apple vastly overpay, and the league just accepts the lack of national visibility for almost a decade
_________________
okstateguy
|
|
Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 4701
Back to top |
| Posted: 11/11/22 12:43 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Yeah, I don't disagree that the Pac is in a catch-22 of epic proportions. Programs will either have more money but less visibility, or more visibility but less money – or neither if Oregon & Washington refuse to sign, thereby forcing the conference into dissolution. If I were Oregon & Washington, I would probably lean 'more money' since for both, the respective fan support is high and the products themselves are doing well, and extra visibility doesn't necessarily lead to more dollars (just tv dollars for the networks, even if that is worth something in & of itself). I can understand the inverse, but to me, the Pac's visibility will always be weighed down by the (mainly California-based) programs with low fan support. It's hard to see how that can be circumvented in this day & age.
Ultimately, Oregon & Washington will be fine. They'll end up somewhere. If they opt to go to the Big 12, I'd hope that they'd force the B12 to take the State schools with them and get them into a good home. I really hope none of the Pac schools drop down to the G5 – even Cal, who doesn't seem to give a single fuck about their athletics across the board anymore or about SDSU's hopes & dreams of being P5 apparently.
|
|
Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 4701
Back to top |
| Posted: 12/14/22 11:59 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
UCLA's move to Big Ten officially approved by Regents of the University of California
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35254728/uc-regents-approve-ucla-big-ten-move-include-conditions
| Quote: |
As part of the board's decision, UCLA will have to increase its expected investment in student-athlete resources and might have to provide a subsidy to the University of California, Berkeley in the range of $2 million to $10 million once a Pac-12 media deal is secured, depending on the amount of the deal. A UCOP spokesperson said the frequency of the subsidy to UC Berkeley is yet to be determined.
The board included other conditions for UCLA to address the impact of the move on athletes, including funds for academic support, nutritional support and mental health services.
According to the letter to the regents, the subsidy to UC Berkeley would be to "enhance student-athlete support on that campus." |
|
|
Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 4701
Back to top |
| Posted: 12/29/22 4:19 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
If Kevin Warren leaves the Big Ten to return to the NFL and become the President/CEO of the Chicago Bears – he is reportedly the leading candidate for the job – then we can pretty much forget about any further westward expansion for the Big Ten.
It's officially time for Oregon & Washington to be willing to sign a new Pac media deal. Some leverage appears to have been lost. Those Big Ten invites ain't coming anytime soon – maybe down the road, but not in the next couple years. Move forward.
|
|
Michael
Joined: 23 Mar 2006
Posts: 601
Back to top |
| Posted: 12/30/22 12:27 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Stormeo wrote: |
If Kevin Warren leaves the Big Ten to return to the NFL and become the President/CEO of the Chicago Bears – he is reportedly the leading candidate for the job – then we can pretty much forget about any further westward expansion for the Big Ten.
It's officially time for Oregon & Washington to be willing to sign a new Pac media deal. Some leverage appears to have been lost. Those Big Ten invites ain't coming anytime soon – maybe down the road, but not in the next couple years. Move forward. |
The BT is not interested in anymore teams int eh west, which surprised me, I thought they would add a couple just to couple road trips to Cali with and lessen USC and UCLA's travel issues. The ACC is tied up and completely off limits until 2032, so unless the B12 can wipe out the PAC I think conference expansion at the top conferences will stop for a decade, but once the ACC GOR expires, I think the ACC gets eaten up by the SEC and BT.
_________________
Michael
|
|
okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
Posts: 453
Location: Oklahoma
Back to top |
| Posted: 12/30/22 3:07 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Michael wrote: |
| Stormeo wrote: |
If Kevin Warren leaves the Big Ten to return to the NFL and become the President/CEO of the Chicago Bears – he is reportedly the leading candidate for the job – then we can pretty much forget about any further westward expansion for the Big Ten.
It's officially time for Oregon & Washington to be willing to sign a new Pac media deal. Some leverage appears to have been lost. Those Big Ten invites ain't coming anytime soon – maybe down the road, but not in the next couple years. Move forward. |
The BT is not interested in anymore teams int eh west, which surprised me, I thought they would add a couple just to couple road trips to Cali with and lessen USC and UCLA's travel issues. The ACC is tied up and completely off limits until 2032, so unless the B12 can wipe out the PAC I think conference expansion at the top conferences will stop for a decade, but once the ACC GOR expires, I think the ACC gets eaten up by the SEC and BT. |
I read that several schools, like Minnesota/Purdue/Northwestern/Wisconsin blocked further B1G expansion in order to protect their chances of making the playoffs and higher bowl games. In terms of the PAC, it will likely kill itself. If ESPN offered 23 million/school, the PAC would need 8-9 million to match the Big 12 payout. The PAC 12 Network is likely valued somewhere between 175-250 million. If they were able to get that set up on a streaming service, on a 4 year deal, they would still be 3-5 million below the Big 12 payout. Oregon and Washington alone could add 3-5 million/school to the Big 12 deal,moving it close to the high 30's/school. But however it shakes out, much like you, I see the ACC getting raided of any value the next go around.
_________________
okstateguy
|
|
Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 4701
Back to top |
| Posted: 12/30/22 6:12 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Supposedly there’s a rumor that Florida State thinks it may have an “escape hatch” from the ACC that would let them leave for greener pastures earlier than 2032. No idea what it could be, or what it could mean financially for them. I think we’ll hear more about it in 2023, though maybe we won’t. Fwiw, they’ve made it clear that they want to leave. If any team not necessarily named Notre Dame is able to leave the ACC early, I wonder if that departure would affect (read: make easier) the rest of the schools' ability to do so as well.
|
|
|
|
