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Howee



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PostPosted: 03/04/22 7:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yes, Lawrence's pragmatism rings true. I'm certainly old enough to get that.

However. It all begs the question: What's the strategy if/when Putin decides
Poland or Estonia or Latvia are next (NATO allies)? THEN we can intervene?
Will THAT induce his atomic holocaust? His insanity seems limitless. How can
we have any confident prediction of his next steps?

His bullying must be checked. I personally believe the best remedy will
come from within Russia herself, at the hands of his many enemies.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/04/22 7:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
For people thinking "No-Fly Zone, why not?", realize that would mean US/NATO and Russian planes shooting at each other. Something that (at least as far as either country will admit to) never happened throughout all of the Cold War. Realpolitik, in all it's cold machiavellian heartlessness, was the go to philosophy for a reason. While I hope we've moved beyond some of the things realpolitik called for, when it comes to how two nuclear powers interact and the cold calculations that come from it, that remains essential. It's just much harder to make those cold calculations in the digital age, where you can see the consequences, and hear the pleas, in real time. Those costs are no longer abstract. Which is fair. It's only right that when those choices are made we look them in the eye, see and hear them, and know completely the price they are being asked to pay.

For people who still think we should put boots on the ground, or come into direct conflict with Russian forces, I would suggest listening to this.

https://twitter.com/TheLastWord/status/1499592957510524930?t=dw7NMJLrqlqFBWIedL3Xwg&s=19

Another article on realpolitik. https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/opinions/realpolitik-putin-ukraine-mabry/index.html

Howee wrote:
Yes, Lawrence's pragmatism rings true. I'm certainly old enough to get that.

However. It all begs the question: What's the strategy if/when Putin decides Poland or Estonia or Latvia are next (NATO allies)? THEN we can intervene? Will THAT induce his atomic holocaust? His insanity seems limitless. How can we have any confident prediction of his next steps?

His bullying must be checked. I personally believe the best remedy will come from within Russia herself, at the hands of his many enemies.

NATO has made it pretty clear that an attack on a member country can and will be met with a military response. I also think someone in Russia will dispose of Putin before that happens.


Howee



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PostPosted: 03/04/22 9:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:

NATO has made it pretty clear that an attack on a member country can and will be met with a military response. I also think someone in Russia will dispose of Putin before that happens.

Yes, I hope that serves as some deterrent, but....what if it doesn't? What if he plows onward, and NATO gets involved? Is there any reason to believe he'll show any more restraint re: nuclear warfare than he now alludes to?



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/05/22 1:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:

NATO has made it pretty clear that an attack on a member country can and will be met with a military response. I also think someone in Russia will dispose of Putin before that happens.

Yes, I hope that serves as some deterrent, but....what if it doesn't? What if he plows onward, and NATO gets involved? Is there any reason to believe he'll show any more restraint re: nuclear warfare than he now alludes to?

I think the feeling is if he actually invaded a NATO country, then he is utterly unhinged and it almost certainly leads to nuclear war. Because he has to know that NATO would have no choice but get involved, otherwise the whole system collapses on itself. And if he's so unstable to actually do that, then he's unstable enough to not care if the world burns. The hope of the world at that point, would be a coup where the army refuses the order and deposes him.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/05/22 12:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:

NATO has made it pretty clear that an attack on a member country can and will be met with a military response. I also think someone in Russia will dispose of Putin before that happens.

Yes, I hope that serves as some deterrent, but....what if it doesn't? What if he plows onward, and NATO gets involved? Is there any reason to believe he'll show any more restraint re: nuclear warfare than he now alludes to?

I think the feeling is if he actually invaded a NATO country, then he is utterly unhinged and it almost certainly leads to nuclear war. Because he has to know that NATO would have no choice but get involved, otherwise the whole system collapses on itself. And if he's so unstable to actually do that, then he's unstable enough to not care if the world burns. The hope of the world at that point, would be a coup where the army refuses the order and deposes him.


Putin issued some convoluted, delusional statement overnight that he considers the West's sanctions to be a declaration of war. Lukoil, Russia's second largest oil company, is calling for an end to the war. I think the nutcase is going to be facing increasing pressure from wealthy citizens and businesses to stop the insanity, hopefully soon. Russia is shelling evacuation routes out of Ukraine, and Ukraine is begging the West for more military supplies. (per various CNN and ABC articles)


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/07/22 4:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Within Putin's geopolitical and military strategic goals for Russia—goals that no one else has to accept, of course—he is not acting insane or with delusions, but rather quite rationally and effectively.

More specifically, if one accepts that his goals are to re-integrate parts of the former USSR back into Russia, via some level of influence or control, he has already made significant progress. He effectively controls Belarus. He has invaded and occupies parts of Georgia. He has invaded and controls the Crimean region of Ukraine, and now he wants more control/influence over the rest of that country, which requires a significant military action.

To effect his plan, Putin first had to get his party and government on board, which he seems to have done with political and legal maneuvering over the past several years.

Second, he has to get his populace on board or at least not in opposition. He seems largely to have succeeded in this via propaganda, suppression and criminalization of all critical mainstream and social media, and brutal crackdowns against protestors. A large portion of the Russian populace likely believes that the incursion into Ukraine is a righteous battle against "corrupt Nazis" who have taken over that country and are dangers to Mother Russia.

Third, Putin has to intimidate, threaten, bully and basically scare the West into military paralysis by whatever verbal means necessary. This is where the "insane" rhetoric and "nuke hints" play their role, and the rhetoric seems to have been effective in inducing paralytic intimidation.

Fourth, he has to be able to withstand the economic and other non-military sanctions. He knows he has long-term economic leverage by being a critical supplier of natural gas and oil to Europe and the U.S., which probably gives him confidence that he can withstand short- and mid-term sanctions. But we'll see.

Finally, Putin has to successfully take over Ukraine with a sufficient military incursion so as to obtain his desired degree of political control. So far, he has been holding back his military for some reason. He could easily devastate Kiev and other parts of Ukraine if he unleashes his fixed wing air power to rain down thousands of bombs and air missiles—just as the U.S. has done this century with so much destructive effect in Iraq, Afghanistan and some other places in the Middle East.

Instead, Putin so far has been relying on foot soldiers, armored vehicles and artillery, so the Western press keeps interpreting events as if there is some sort of military stalemate. Putin doesn't need to use nukes. Military success will be inevitable if Putin take his foot off the brakes of his air power. Why he hasn't yet, I'm not sure. And maybe there is some hope in this restraint.

If Putin is successful in achieving his military and geopolitical goals in Ukraine, I would expect him to do the same thing in a few other small places before he retires as the "Re-Uniter of Greater Mother Russia."

Just one current view of the situation, among others, which I might change tomorrow depending on events.
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PostPosted: 03/07/22 6:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Putin has moved all of his military assets that he had ringing Ukraine into the country now, and is recruiting Syrian mercenaries to augment his troops. He agreed to talks tomorrow re: refugee corridors, but Russian officials failed to show up for the same today.


justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/08/22 3:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1646633250-1

This article published in The Times is supposedly a translation of a piece written by a current Russian FSB analyst. There is a paywall, but someone posted a translation on Twitter. It's a really interesting read.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937?t=_RMB-u8UFFYTLi6i8QI9wg&s=19



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/08/22 5:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You would think that Russia would dependably put out misinformation at precisely a moment like this. But. Things are clearly not going well for them in Ukraine and with a population of somewhere around 40 million, now lessoned somewhat by people fleeing the war, but also now pissed off FOREVER and their children and grandchildren, this doesn’t seem to be a winnable war for Putin and Russia. But what do I know.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/08/22 6:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
You would think that Russia would dependably put out misinformation at precisely a moment like this. But. Things are clearly not going well for them in Ukraine and with a population of somewhere around 40 million, now lessoned somewhat by people fleeing the war, but also now pissed off FOREVER and their children and grandchildren, this doesn’t seem to be a winnable war for Putin and Russia. But what do I know.

Russia is Vietnaming it. Making the same mistake we did. By refusing to call it an all out war and leaning on the "we're just going in to support Ukraine" (sort of like how Vietnam was a "police action") he wasn't able to commit the full might of his military. And now it's bogged down in a logistical nightmare.

This is part of why it's a terrible idea for the US or NATO to get directly involved. Right now he's stuck between a rock and a hard place with a public that's unlikely to support an all out war, but the need to commit more of he wants to end this any time soon. But if we gave him images of NATO soliders or jets shooting and killing Russian soldiers to bring back to his people, we would likely solve this issue for him. Then the only way to save Ukraine would be full out war. Which, IMO, is the "Game Over" screen. And there ain't no loading a previous save.



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Howee



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PostPosted: 03/08/22 7:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
But if we gave him images of NATO soliders or jets shooting and killing Russian soldiers to bring back to his people....


I know you're being hypothetical, but ya....even if various citizens at various levels in Russian society could independently bring such images to some level of broader media attention, it'd most likely get the same response Americans gave to "real" pictures/evidence re: Trump's follies: FAKE NEWS.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/09/22 1:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Russians DON'T believe what's going on in Ukraine. They've been told Russia is attacking selected military installations to protect the Ukrainians from Nazis (last night Russia bombed a maternity/pediatric hospital).

This is a story about the frustrations of Ukrainians, who have 11M family members in Russia, who have been calling them in Russia to tell them what's really happening, and been told by their family that they're lying and everything is fine because Russian media said so.
Quote:
Ukrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Don’t Believe It’s a War
As Ukrainians deal with the devastation of the Russian attacks in their homeland, many are also encountering a confounding and almost surreal backlash from family members in Russia, who refuse to believe that Russian soldiers could bomb innocent people, or even that a war is taking place at all.

These relatives have essentially bought into the official Kremlin position: that President Vladimir V. Putin’s army is conducting a limited “special military operation” with the honorable mission of “de-Nazifying” Ukraine...

When Valentyna V. Kremyr wrote to her brother and sister in Russia to tell them that her son had spent days in a bomb shelter in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha because of the intensive fighting there, she was also met with disbelief...She said her sister Lyubov, who lives in Perm, wished her a happy birthday on Feb. 25, the second day of the invasion. When Ms. Kremyr wrote back about the situation on the ground, her sister’s answer via direct message was simple: “No one is bombing Kyiv, and you should actually be afraid of the Nazis, whom your father fought against. Your children will be alive and healthy. We love the Ukrainian people, but you need to think hard about who you elected as president.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-families.html

The NYT article is worth reading but if you can't access it, this is an interview with one of the Ukrainians quoted in the NYT story.
Hear how Russian dad responded when Ukrainian son told him what's happening
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/09/russia-propaganda-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-newday-vpx.cnn

Social media has been taken down in Russia, so the man in the video has set up this website, "father believe," to help facilitate getting the word out to Russians with family in Ukraine.
https://papapover.com/en/


Howee



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PostPosted: 03/09/22 4:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
Social media has been taken down in Russia, so the man in the video has set up this website, "father believe," to help facilitate getting the word out to Russians with family in Ukraine.
https://papapover.com/en/

How much more Dis-Trumpian can it get?? Shocked
Though they may be less addicted or influenced by social media than Americans, you'd think that totally losing instagram, fb, tiktok, etc., might just be a red flag that all is not right with your government, and lend credibility to your Ukranian relatives' stories.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 03/13/22 6:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
I called it similar to Biden over Trump in that Zelensky was elected into office. But yes, it would be more similar if Trump had been removed from office like he should have been, and then the elections happened.


The USA-backed coup was in 2014, where a group that included neo-Nazis (as in want to ethnically cleanse Ukraine of Russians and use a Nazi symbol - not wear MAGA hats and have a Confederate flag) forced the elected government to dissolve before new elections could be held. I was listing things that have led to the Russian invasion.

Quote:
But the point was they had democratic elections, and Zelensky won in a landslide. And yes, one of the big reasons he won is that Ukraine's people, by and large, *strongly* support joining the EU (which Zelensky just officially applied to do), and NATO as well.


They had an election in 2014. Prior to the coup Victoria Nuland, a USA beauracrat involved in Ukraine, let the people the USA were backing in Ukraine know who the USA wanted to get elected.

"F the EU .... I think Yatz is the guy... Good. I don't think Klitsch should go into the government. I don't think it's necessary, I don't think it's a good idea."

Bad when the Russians "meddle" via small amount of Facebook ads but good when we do it? The face of the new warmongering Democratic party - Hillary Clinton said regarding Nuland's leaked phone call that everyone is collecting phone calls but suggested that only Russia would "weaponize" it by leaking it. Although it could have been leaked by Ukrainians. And we can't see how much the CIA spent in Ukraine from their "regime change" side of the fence.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

Victoria Nuland (R) offers cookies to protesters
Independence Square, Kiev • December 11, 2013






Quote:
As far as NATO, of course they didn't turn them down. NATO's long standing policy is to have an open door to all those who wish to enter, as long as they meet certain guidelines. Which is why NATO refused Russia's demands that they never be allowed in. What I was nothing was that NATO was *not* courting Ukraine or trying to entice then in. It was the other way around.


But if the USA (and the compliant press) is going to promote this as "totally unprovoked" they have to leave out the fact that it has been known for over three decades that NATO expansion east would cause problems. And the USA, which is condemning the invasion, decided that not making a concession on Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was more important than stopping an invasion. Although it is very possible that the USA wanted the invasion and was dead set against doing anything that would stop it. Hillary Clinton said something recently about how the USA was happy about Russia getting bogged down in Afghanistan ("Although that did have unintended consequences") and seemed pleased with the prospect of it happening in Ukraine.

Quote:
RT is Russian State Media, which means it is absolutely propaganda. They require Kremlin approval on all stories. They do not print or air stories critical of Putin/Russia.


But their stories on the USA dirty deeds around the world would be more accurate than what you would see in the USA media.

Quote:
While the US media is prone to cultural blindness at times, the US government does not have editorial control over them, much to the chagrin of wannabe dictators like Trump.


Whether the government can control the press is irrelevant when they don't challenge the fact that, for example, we had sent UN Inspectors to hundreds of sites and found nothing. Even after we could show up unannounced. And yet Colin Powell got away with going to the UN and pointing to satellite images of buildings and saying that "it has between 5 and 500 tons of nerve gas".

Phil Donahue was one of the few people who challenged the war narrative (via guests speaking I think) and despite MSNBC pulled the show. The government may not have made them do that, but they did it. Whether forced or not, it is a stenographer press. The only exception was Trump who makes their politically correct Democratic heads spin.

Trump was such a wannabe dictator that when faced with a global pandemic he chose to seize no power.

Quote:
As far as the separatists, of course Ukraine didn't allow them to separate. Just as the US fought a civil war to keep their country whole as well. "I don't like the results of a fair election" is not a legitimate reason to break up a country. That Russia is supplying weapons to the separatists is a gross violation of Ukraine's sovereignty.


Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and others brokeaway from Yugoslavia. Czechoslovakia broke up into Slovakia and Czech Republic.

Merkel, Macron, Putin and maybe some other leaders were involved in the Minsk and Minsk 2 agreements to stop the fighting in the breakaway regions. The USA and Ukraine didn't think it would be good to follow what had been implemented.

Quote:
What I hope the US takes from this is some self reflection. We seem to mostly be united in understanding that Ukraine is in the right here and Russia is doing something terrible. Perhaps we can stop playing the role of Russia in future entanglements and choose to not violate the sovereignty of other nations just because we feel it is in our "interest" to do so, or because we see them as some sort of nebulous threat to us.


Impossible because no one in the mainstream media will draw any parallels. Will only be said on Twitter, Substack or some other social media by individuals, and if replies are allowed, the comment section will fill up with "You are a Russian agent". We re-elected a war criminal. How's that for seeing what's right and learning from mistakes?


tfan



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PostPosted: 03/13/22 6:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
Social media has been taken down in Russia, so the man in the video has set up this website, "father believe," to help facilitate getting the word out to Russians with family in Ukraine.
https://papapover.com/en/


How much more Dis-Trumpian can it get?? Shocked
Though they may be less addicted or influenced by social media than Americans, you'd think that totally losing instagram, fb, tiktok, etc., might just be a red flag that all is not right with your government, and lend credibility to your Ukranian relatives' stories.


I don't recall Trump calling for anyone to be kicked off social media or censored. I did see Jen Psaki call for someone to be banned from all social media platforms if they are judged (the White House is flagging posts for the companies) to have posted COVID-19 "misinformation" on one. Seems innocuous. "COVID-19 misinformation" gets you removed from all social media. Although, at one point that would have included suggesting the virus was made in a Wuhan lab. But now they admitted they can't rule it out and in fact the misinformation was from the "scientists" (led by Daszak and Facui who both would like to see it not be from the lab) who declared it could not have been made in a lab. The White House flagging posts for social media companies to then ban could turn into something a lot worse if "misinformation" flagging broadens to other issues.


Howee



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PostPosted: 03/13/22 10:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I don't recall Trump calling for anyone to be kicked off social media or censored.

As I recall, you have a lot of difficulty recalling a LOT of things. I have no interest in engaging in a 'tit-for-tat' with you, as you typically get bogged down in contortions and misinterpretations.

You may want to try and stay in the moment here: Putin is TOTALLY suppressing the truth and reality from his people while he's blasting away at civilians to usurp control of an independent country. That you try to excuse away the obvious and blatant Dis-Trumpian methods of HIS propaganda war is lost on me.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 03/15/22 4:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
tfan wrote:
I don't recall Trump calling for anyone to be kicked off social media or censored.


As I recall, you have a lot of difficulty recalling a LOT of things. I have no interest in engaging in a 'tit-for-tat' with you, as you typically get bogged down in contortions and misinterpretations.


Apparently he hasn't. Although I do recall you are the type to demand links but not provide them amongst the emojis.

Quote:
You may want to try and stay in the moment here: Putin is TOTALLY suppressing the truth and reality from his people while he's blasting away at civilians to usurp control of an independent country. That you try to excuse away the obvious and blatant Dis-Trumpian methods of HIS propaganda war is lost on me.


I didn't excuse anything by Putin. That's just part of your contortions and misinterpretations you get bogged down in. Pointing out that the Biden administration did nothing to try and avoid a war is not excusing Putin. And that was after 5 years of the Clinton/Biden people talking about how bad Putin is. As in the type of guy who would attack and kill. A Dubya Bush type. The spy agencies began declaring a Ukraine attack imminent months ago with Russian troops massing near the border and yet we refused to do anything to try and avoid a war. No implementation of Minsk 2 (negotiated by Merkel, Putin, Macron), no (easily breakable as we have demonstrated in the past) commitment to not expand NATO to Ukraine. They were sure Russia would attack - Russian and Ukrainians would die - and were not willing to give up even a meaningless thing like explicitly excluding Ukraine from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. I have to suspect that they weren't concerned about the attack happening or the loss of life and destruction and even desired it. Which would mirror how they (warmongers, chicken hawks, regime changers, neoCons, paleoCons, deep military staters - all the folks who get the presidential primaries and elections to have "foreign policy" debate nights) felt about the invasion and carnage in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In 2002 Dubya Bush took to the pulpit and dramatically lied that "They hate us because we are a Democracy", rather than list the actual things bin Laden had given as grievances. And here we go again. News anchors and pundits have been sticking to "this was an unprovoked attack" (David Muir solemnly and slowly said it twice one night) apparently to tamp down any smattering of talk about NATO expansion or Minsk 2 not being followed or the USA-backed coup or the neoNazi (against ethnic Russians) component in Ukraine - things Putin explicitly said he was unhappy about. But Hillary Clinton in this interview starts with "unprovoked", and then takes it up a notch using the "hate Democracy" rhetoric of Dubya and even throws in "rule of law" and "freedom". Nothing we could have tried apparently. We were dealing with someone who hates democracy, freedom and the rule of law. Doesn't care about NATO expansion or the breakaway republics or Crimea or the neoNazi Azov batallian, even though he mentions them.

Quote:
"This is not just an unprovoked aggressive invasion by Russia. It is an effort by Putin and those who prop him up and enable him, to really wage war on the rule of law and democracy. On freedom."


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/n9BGOE_eVQc" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>




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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/15/22 5:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, right. No one did anything to try to stop this war.


tfan



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PostPosted: 03/15/22 6:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
Yeah, right. No one did anything to try to stop this war.


Putin was complaining about NATO acceptance, neoNazis, and fighting in the separatist Donbas. And I see in post war initiation negotiations it is [NATO, Donbas, recognition of Crimea]. Crimea is the one that the west would not want to budge on since it was taken by Russia (although the majority of Crimeans were happy about it).


justintyme wrote:
As far as NATO, of course they didn't turn them down. NATO's long standing policy is to have an open door to all those who wish to enter, as long as they meet certain guidelines. Which is why NATO refused Russia's demands that they never be allowed in.


War looms as US and Kiev ignore Minsk II Protocols

I thought Minsk 2 was a done deal, we just needed to get Ukraine to follow it. But I find this article that says Minsk 2 was never really completed despite Macron and Merkel and Putin being involved. Ukraine and Russia did not agree and that no Ukrainian politician could survive if they agreed to Minsk 2 the way the Russians saw it. I don't understand how it was considered finalized. The USA had no overt hand in it, presumably because it was considered a European issue. But I would expect them to have strongly given their opinion. It may have been an unworkable situation. But if you start with the NATO concession upfront - with caveats about Minsk 2 resolution - it may have worked. I think you need to try since the stakes are so high (or so tragic).

And doing something about the neoNazis may have also been unsurvivable by any Ukrainian politician, but the USA has a lot of money to toss around and also an international bully pulpit.

Commentary: Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem

Quote:
Western diplomats and human rights organizations must urge Ukraine’s government to uphold the rule of law and to stop allowing the far right to act with impunity. International donors can help by funding more initiatives like the United States Agency for International Development’s projects supporting training for Ukrainian lawyers and human rights defenders, and improving equitable access to the judicial system for marginalized communities.

There’s no easy way to eradicate the virulent far-right extremism that has been poisoning Ukrainian politics and public life, but without vigorous and immediate efforts to counteract it, it may soon endanger the state itself.


So we are down to NATO expansion as the only easy concession. And we chose not to do it.

But I think Putin may not have attacked if he and his military had a better idea of what weapons Ukraine had obtained or been given in recent years. It sounds like Russia is doing most of their damage with cruise missiles and getting slaughtered on the ground. The Russian spy agency seems to be incompetent. Ukraine is shooting down planes with shoulder mounted equipment that came from somewhere in the west. They have Turkish drones that are destroying tanks with one missile. Coming in with a "40 mile line of tanks and trucks" is suicidal. To my non-military eye it would have been better to advertise all that capability - or leak the information in a way Russia will think they got it through their intelligence work. But the State Department et al may have preferred it this way.

I have seen articles that claim Putin thought he could just roll in tanks (as happened in Crimea I believe) and take control. Given that they rolled in tanks that were "blown to smithereens" as one widely circulated article said, it is probably true. It was when the tanks failed that Russia began hitting cities with missiles, including apartment buildings.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15691
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 03/15/22 11:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You're very imaginative. Razz

tfan wrote:
Crimea is the one that the west would not want to budge on since it was taken by Russia (although the majority of Crimeans were happy about it).


I haven't met one Crimean that was happy about it. And YES, I know a number of former Crimeans.

tfan wrote:
But I think Putin may not have attacked if he and his military had a better idea of what weapons Ukraine had obtained or been given in recent years.


Keep thinkin'. Rolling Eyes Russia's intel operations aren't THAT inept.

Like all of us red-blooded Americans with a heart, we'd love to nail down *explanations*, reasons to explain why or how this could have been avoided. Trust me: WE CANNOT KNOW THE FULL INTERNATIONAL DYNAMIC NOR THE COMPLETE CONTEXT of this effort on Russia's part, links be damned. To us, it is random insanity; to Putin and all other relevant leaders, it is insanity with a purpose.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/15/22 3:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Multiple journalists killed/injured.

Quote:
A Monday attack on a Fox News crew reporting near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv left two of the network's journalists dead and its correspondent severely injured, the country's Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday.

Killed in the attack were Pierre Zakrzewski, a longtime war photojournalist for Fox News, and Oleksandra Kuvshynova, a Ukrainian journalist. Fox News correspondent Benjamin Hall was seriously injured and remains hospitalized...

The deaths come as journalists working in Ukraine increasingly find themselves coming under fire. Brent Renaud, an award-winning American documentarian, was killed Sunday in an attack that also injured journalist Juan Arredondo. A Sky News team released footage earlier this month showing them being violently ambushed.


https://www.wmur.com/article/fox-news-says-its-veteran-war-photojournalist-has-been-killed-reporting-in-ukraine/39440196


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 03/30/22 1:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:


tfan wrote:
Crimea is the one that the west would not want to budge on since it was taken by Russia (although the majority of Crimeans were happy about it).


I haven't met one Crimean that was happy about it. And YES, I know a number of former Crimeans.


These current Crimeans are happy about it.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lzO7gIT5GYU" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Quote:
tfan wrote:
But I think Putin may not have attacked if he and his military had a better idea of what weapons Ukraine had obtained or been given in recent years.


Keep thinkin'. Rolling Eyes Russia's intel operations aren't THAT inept.


So they purposely came in with tanks knowing that NATO had given shoulder mounted weapons and Turkish drones to Ukrainians that would easily blow them up?

Quote:
Like all of us red-blooded Americans with a heart


All you red-blooded Americans with a heart that stood meekly by as Madeline Albright, on behalf of the Clinton Regime, responded to a Leslie Stahl question about mid-1990s sanctions on Iraq that had reportedly killed half a million children - "we think the price is worth it".

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1tihL1lMLL0" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Or you red-blooded Americans with a heart who let the USA attack Iraq with more bombs than were dropped in WWII for no legal reason or UN backing. And then re-elected the Bush Regime even after it was inarguably confirmed they had made up their reason for an illegal invasion. Re-elected a regime that kicked UN Inspectors out of Iraq because they were unable to direct them to anywhere that had weapons and were worried that at some point people might catch on that none were there.

Quote:
, we'd love to nail down *explanations*, reasons to explain why or how this could have been avoided. Trust me: WE CANNOT KNOW THE FULL INTERNATIONAL DYNAMIC NOR THE COMPLETE CONTEXT of this effort on Russia's part, links be damned. To us, it is random insanity; to Putin and all other relevant leaders, it is insanity with a purpose.


Zelensky went on CNN and said that the USA told him Ukraine wasn't going to be a part of NATO but that they wanted them both to pretend that it was a possibility. Does that sound like there was behind the scenes negotiating that you can hang your hat on? We know that the USA wasn't even conceding the one thing they didn't even want, to stop the war. The USA loves foreign wars and it's citizens give them a pass, with uninformed cocksure hand-waving rationalizations. There are apparently great reasons why the USA was ready to fight to the last Ukrainian, but although great, must remain a secret. And the USA isn't even saying their were great reasons in behind the scenes negotiations. And I would think most people would believe the opposite - they would hide what we would not look favorably on. Like they did absolutely nothing to try and stop a war. I don't remember a single American warmonger saying "we did all we could to stop this war". If only the USA actually was in the war-stopping business there would be a lot less people dead and dying in Yemen.

And in front of the scenes, the UN had a 2015 resolution that Ukraine implement the Minsk agreement with regard to the war in eastern Ukraine. Did the United States step in as Ukraine's handler, a place where Joe Biden infamously bragged he had told the government to fire a prosecutor or he would withhold $1 billion in aid, and get them to implement the peace agreement? No. The USA Congressional-contractor-military-spy war machine is not designed for peace negotiations and certainly won't do anything the UN requests if they disagree.

The USA Congress was eager to arm Ukraine after the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, but passed a resolution that the arms couldn't go to the neo-Nazi militias. The same neo-Nazis that terrorize and torture people in the breakaway Republics and that Putin wants to eradicate. This was a ban they had first done in 2015, and then lifted in 2016 under pressure from the Pentagon. Congress can be arm-twisted into giving money to brutal neo-Nazis by another part of the war machine. But the neo-Nazis are no longer separate militias. They have been integrated into the Ukrainian military and government. They, along with the USA put pressure on Zelensky who said in his 2019 campaign that he "wanted the shooting to stop", to not look for a peaceful outcome or follow the Minsk 2 agreement.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15691
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 03/31/22 12:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You certainly HAVE illustrated my point on how complicated and nuanced the roots of this international mess are. And beyond its causes, you might wanna consider the potential of a Nuclear Winter, and its ramifications on the dynamics playing out. And for another layer of irony, I saw on PBS newshour an analyst explaining how Ukraine and greater Europe are still depending on Russia for natural gas. Shocked

You bring up some interesting points - until one digs deeper.

For example, did you actually watch the whole Crimean video? It actually proves/doesn't prove everything/anything.

And another *gem*.....
tfan wrote:
They, along with the USA put pressure on Zelensky who said in his 2019 campaign that he "wanted the shooting to stop", to not look for a peaceful outcome or follow the Minsk 2 agreement.

Your source in this paragraph above is a piece of shit, totally undermining your intended credibility AND not reflecting well on your personal ideologies, imo. If you can buy into THAT, I can't imagine anything else you have to say on this topic that's of interest to me.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 08/01/22 1:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
You certainly HAVE illustrated my point on how complicated and nuanced the roots of this international mess are.


So then you agree the western press and governments are lying when they say this invasion is "totally unprovoked"?

Quote:
You bring up some interesting points - until one digs deeper.

For example, did you actually watch the whole Crimean video? It actually proves/doesn't prove everything/anything.


I believe what is up for debate is whether most of the people of Crimea wouldn't vote to join Russia. Unfortunately there is no easy way to prove either but Graham Phillips walked around one day asking people about Ukraine/Russia in Crimea and his video doesn't support the notion that people are in general unhappy about the change.

https://youtu.be/xF563XDshTo

Quote:
And another *gem*.....
tfan wrote:
They, along with the USA put pressure on Zelensky who said in his 2019 campaign that he "wanted the shooting to stop", to not look for a peaceful outcome or follow the Minsk 2 agreement.

Your source in this paragraph above is a piece of shit, totally undermining your intended credibility AND not reflecting well on your personal ideologies, imo. If you can buy into THAT, I can't imagine anything else you have to say on this topic that's of interest to me.


That reference "From peacemaker to warmonger: Tragic downfall of Ukraine’s …" is the first most relevant one that comes up on Bing for a search of "Zelensky ran on peace."

Here is Stephen F. Cohen saying that Zelensky ran on peace in a November 2019 interview:

At 2:13:
Quote:
but ultimately, you have a situation now which seems not to be widely understood, that the new president of Ukraine, Zelensky, ran as a peace candidate. This is a bit of a stretch and maybe it doesn’t mean a whole lot to your generation; but he ran a kind of George McGovern campaign. The difference was, McGovern got wiped out and Zelensky won by I think 71, 72 percent. He won an enormous mandate to make peace.


He goes on to say that there are opponents of any peace deal, he calls them "ultra-nationalists" and that they are armed and have even said they would kill Zelensky if he attempts to make peace. And that it would have taken the USA backing a peace initiative in order for Zelensky to have survived one.

And that is never going to happen from a country whose slogan has long been "Give war a chance". The USA had previously rejected the Minsk and Minsk 2 peace agreements (which had the Donbas remaining a part of Ukraine but with semi-autonomy) as an example of how they handle the idea of peace.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bpASSqz1hGc" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


StevenHW



Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 10979
Location: Sacramento, California


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PostPosted: 02/24/23 7:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

One year ago on this day (Feb. 24), CNN showed Ukraine blaring an air raid siren, but it was coupled with an Applebee's commercial! Rolling Eyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6QUsx68DCA



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