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Richyyy
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 Posted: 12/13/21 3:01 pm ::: 2022 WNBA Mock Offseason Podcast |
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Back once again for year two, it's the Her Hoop Stats Mock Offseason Podcast. Following all the official rules, using all the real numbers, we made 6 people GM of two teams each, one person the agent for all the players, and played out how the offseason might go.
There's an intro article to it all here: https://herhoopstats.substack.com/p/2022-mock-free-agency-wnba-part-1
It's available on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or all the usual places you'd get your podcasts.
Lots more coverage to come, but let us know what you think. |
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root_thing
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| Posted: 12/13/21 6:25 pm ::: |
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1) A little more realistic this year with someone more aggressively playing the agent. Still, I'm skeptical about so many players happily taking one-year contracts. Injuries are common in this sport, and if I were their agent I'd recommend people lock in the guaranteed money.
2) I'd be surprised if Quigley ends up playing for only $150k when her wife is already taking a $28k discount. Too much money left on the table for one household.
3) Seattle only has $360k left to sign Bird, Russell, and one more player. With all the talk about Sue waiting to see what happens and then taking less, Bird got $221k last season. It will be interesting to see what people think she'd accept as a reasonable discount. Also, what will Russell get? One thing last year's Mock Offseason predicted correctly was the lack of interest in Brionna Jones. It surprised a lot of us, and it turns out that the GMs were wrong for ignoring her.
4) I don't think Charles has an issue with Jonathan Kolb. It was Hopkins who was saying bad things about her in the press. Kolb signed Tina the year before, and as far as I know has never criticized her. We also don't know if Tina wanted out or if she was forced out. I believe Hopkins getting the ax opens the door for Charles to consider returning. Not saying she would do it since there are better places to go if winning a championship is her priority. However, we know Tina prefers to live in NY both because she wants to be close to her family and because the Tribeca Film organization that has supported her nascent documentary career is here. NY can also give Charles more money. In the past, money was no object because she earned a lot overseas. However, Tina missed out on that money last winter because of Covid, and so far I don't think she has played overseas this winter. I'd be surprised if she didn't at least take the phone call. Just something to consider if you guys are making revisions in Part II based on the two coaching changes.
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 12/13/21 6:45 pm ::: |
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I don't believe Sloot will make a decision on where she will play next season until Bird decides if she will play one more season or retire. If Bird retires that will open the door for Sloot to play in Seattle. Now Sloot will want to get the same money that Bird was getting paid so a sign and trade deal will have to take place.
The 2022 free agency period will be ten times more interesting than the 2022 draft.👀🍿
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/13/21 7:03 pm ::: |
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| root_thing wrote: |
1) A little more realistic this year with someone more aggressively playing the agent. Still, I'm skeptical about so many players happily taking one-year contracts. Injuries are common in this sport, and if I were their agent I'd recommend people lock in the guaranteed money.
2) I'd be surprised if Quigley ends up playing for only $150k when her wife is already taking a $28k discount. Too much money left on the table for one household.
3) Seattle only has $360k left to sign Bird, Russell, and one more player. With all the talk about Sue waiting to see what happens and then taking less, Bird got $221k last season. It will be interesting to see what people think she'd accept as a reasonable discount. Also, what will Russell get? One thing last year's Mock Offseason predicted correctly was the lack of interest in Brionna Jones. It surprised a lot of us, and it turns out that the GMs were wrong for ignoring her.
4) I don't think Charles has an issue with Jonathan Kolb. It was Hopkins who was saying bad things about her in the press. Kolb signed Tina the year before, and as far as I know has never criticized her. We also don't know if Tina wanted out or if she was forced out. I believe Hopkins getting the ax opens the door for Charles to consider returning. Not saying she would do it since there are better places to go if winning a championship is her priority. However, we know Tina prefers to live in NY both because she wants to be close to her family and because the Tribeca Film organization that has supported her nascent documentary career is here. NY can also give Charles more money. In the past, money was no object because she earned a lot overseas. However, Tina missed out on that money last winter because of Covid, and so far I don't think she has played overseas this winter. I'd be surprised if she didn't at least take the phone call. Just something to consider if you guys are making revisions in Part II based on the two coaching changes. |
To answer some of the points in here -
There's plenty more to come in regards to Seattle. Without wanting to give too much away, bear in mind that all their existing contracts (in reality), are non-guaranteed.
The whole thing's been recorded already. No changes being made. But yes, it was recorded just before the two coaches were fired. I'm not sure that would've made much difference, but you can probably tell at one or two points.
I tend to agree there were too many 1-year deals in that early part, but I wasn't the agent  .
On Chicago I'm not sure how it's going to go (in reality). Sometimes when you finally get that ring, you're willing to give up things like cash to keep the winning rolling. And Sloot/Quigley/Copper are going to have to take at least a little haircut if they want the Sky to be able to add anyone else, pretty much. But sometimes when you get the ring, people feel like that's done so now they want to get paid. So who knows. The other side from your angle is that they're undoubtedly being paid a fortune by UMMC (it's those two and JJones that are basically letting them circumvent the FIBA foreigner rules). Maybe 220k vs 150k doesn't make much difference to you if you're getting 1m from your other gig. |
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 12/13/21 7:20 pm ::: |
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| Richyyy wrote: |
| root_thing wrote: |
1) A little more realistic this year with someone more aggressively playing the agent. Still, I'm skeptical about so many players happily taking one-year contracts. Injuries are common in this sport, and if I were their agent I'd recommend people lock in the guaranteed money.
2) I'd be surprised if Quigley ends up playing for only $150k when her wife is already taking a $28k discount. Too much money left on the table for one household.
3) Seattle only has $360k left to sign Bird, Russell, and one more player. With all the talk about Sue waiting to see what happens and then taking less, Bird got $221k last season. It will be interesting to see what people think she'd accept as a reasonable discount. Also, what will Russell get? One thing last year's Mock Offseason predicted correctly was the lack of interest in Brionna Jones. It surprised a lot of us, and it turns out that the GMs were wrong for ignoring her.
4) I don't think Charles has an issue with Jonathan Kolb. It was Hopkins who was saying bad things about her in the press. Kolb signed Tina the year before, and as far as I know has never criticized her. We also don't know if Tina wanted out or if she was forced out. I believe Hopkins getting the ax opens the door for Charles to consider returning. Not saying she would do it since there are better places to go if winning a championship is her priority. However, we know Tina prefers to live in NY both because she wants to be close to her family and because the Tribeca Film organization that has supported her nascent documentary career is here. NY can also give Charles more money. In the past, money was no object because she earned a lot overseas. However, Tina missed out on that money last winter because of Covid, and so far I don't think she has played overseas this winter. I'd be surprised if she didn't at least take the phone call. Just something to consider if you guys are making revisions in Part II based on the two coaching changes. |
To answer some of the points in here -
There's plenty more to come in regards to Seattle. Without wanting to give too much away, bear in mind that all their existing contracts (in reality), are non-guaranteed.
The whole thing's been recorded already. No changes being made. But yes, it was recorded just before the two coaches were fired. I'm not sure that would've made much difference, but you can probably tell at one or two points.
I tend to agree there were too many 1-year deals in that early part, but I wasn't the agent .
On Chicago I'm not sure how it's going to go (in reality). Sometimes when you finally get that ring, you're willing to give up things like cash to keep the winning rolling. And Sloot/Quigley/Copper are going to have to take at least a little haircut if they want the Sky to be able to add anyone else, pretty much. But sometimes when you get the ring, people feel like that's done so now they want to get paid. So who knows. The other side from your angle is that they're undoubtedly being paid a fortune by UMMC (it's those two and JJones that are basically letting them circumvent the FIBA foreigner rules). Maybe 220k vs 150k doesn't make much difference to you if you're getting 1m from your other gig. |
Gulp! Did you say a MILLION Dollars?😳
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/13/21 8:26 pm ::: |
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That's a number plucked out of the air. People have definitely been paid that in Russia over the years, but I have no idea exactly what they're on at the moment.
But like I said, Vandersloot/Quigley/JJones are in a virtually unique negotiating position due to the weird eligibility rules. If their agent's doing their job, those three in particular are probably very well paid right now at UMMC. |
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root_thing
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/14/21 12:43 pm ::: |
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| Part 2 is out, again in the usual places like Apple and Spotify. |
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root_thing
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undersized_post
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/14/21 4:30 pm ::: |
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| Coffey got glaringly overpaid, but sometimes you miss out on your primary targets, still need someone at Position X on the court, and have plenty of cap space left. Then it seems worth the punt that last year was an indicator of what's to come rather than one freak decent year. |
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TDAO
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Richyyy
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pilight
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| Posted: 12/15/21 11:36 am ::: |
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| Quote: |
| Atlanta traded Cheyenne Parker to Dallas for Isabelle Harrison and Charli Collier |
I love this trade for Atlanta and don't hate it for Dallas.
| Quote: |
| Angel McCoughtry signed with Seattle, 1yr/$100,000 |
Considering the last time we saw McCoughtry she was leading the entire league in PER, this is quite a bargain for Seattle
Overall there are way too many one year deals. Needed more agents for the players to make it more competitive.
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TDAO
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| Posted: 12/15/21 12:20 pm ::: |
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| I had more budgeted for McCoughtry but I think one thing that was realistic is this year's free agency probably won't be as free-spending as the past two years now that all of the pre-CBA contracts are off the books. With some of the irrationally exuberant 2020 deals coming off next year, I think it does make sense for veterans to play year-to-year at this point.
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/15/21 12:58 pm ::: |
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| Maybe some of the older ones, or ones like McCoughtry who are back to proving what they're worth, but I do think we ended up with a few too many short-term deals. We've seen over the years in both the WNBA and NBA that players tend to want to lock in money rather than gamble that a bit extra will be there if they wait. And there's even less point in keeping your options open in this league when demanding a trade generally gets you what you want. |
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Richyyy
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root_thing
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| Posted: 12/29/21 6:51 pm ::: |
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Hey Richyyy,
I believe you said previously that a new rule kicks in this season which requires teams to keep anyone whose 4th-year option is picked up on their rookie contract. It sounds like that essentially guarantees the rest of the contract. My question is whether this counts against the existing limit of 6 guaranteed contracts. It becomes a big deal for a team like New York which has five 3rd year players. They will need to make several decisions without first knowing what happens in that extra year of development.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/29/21 7:23 pm ::: |
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While the lower teams should make things interesting with their flexible cap space situations, I do wonder how stagnant the upper & middle teams will be irl. Yeah, they're a bit cap-constrained now, but by doing very little outside of re-signing foundational players, some of them shouldn't assume they can just replicate a successful 2021 season while other teams get better.
Minnesota should consider a rebuild if Fowles doesn't re-sign and they don't get the right fit to replace her.
LA would be stupid not to start rebuilding now, but what smart thing have they done since Derek Fisher came aboard?
Connecticut, assuming Jonquel Jones re-signs, ought to hear trade offers for Alyssa Thomas first before Brionna Jones.
And even despite New York's and Phoenix's coaching changes, I have no idea how Vegas' free agency will pan out, especially since they might(?) change coaches as well. I can see McCoughtry and Cambage re-signing, or just one of them, or neither. If they both re-sign, I can see either Plum or Young on the trading block.
I hope we see trades happening as early as next month. Can't wait to hear about who gets cored in a few weeks as it is.
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/29/21 8:19 pm ::: |
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| root_thing wrote: |
Hey Richyyy,
I believe you said previously that a new rule kicks in this season which requires teams to keep anyone whose 4th-year option is picked up on their rookie contract. It sounds like that essentially guarantees the rest of the contract. My question is whether this counts against the existing limit of 6 guaranteed contracts. It becomes a big deal for a team like New York which has five 3rd year players. They will need to make several decisions without first knowing what happens in that extra year of development. |
No, those 4th-year options don't count against the limit of six protected contracts. That's precisely why our cap sheets at Her Hoop Stats say 'Protected Veteran' for the guaranteed deals - to distinguish from the 'Protected Rookie Scale' deals we're going to start seeing. The limit is 6 'Protected Veterans', with the rookie-scale ones being irrelevant.
The first of those guaranteed options were taken up a few weeks ago when Dallas exercised the 4th-years on Sabally, Harris and Alarie's contracts. No idea why they did it so early - the deadline is May 15. Technically only the 4th season is guaranteed, so if Alarie was waived tomorrow Dallas would owe her nothing for 2022, but $83,194 for 2023. But yes, it makes it much more of a question whether teams will want to take up those options and commit to the salary. |
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root_thing
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/29/21 8:45 pm ::: |
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Yeah, it creates a weird situation. I was actually just discussing with someone whether all the money would hit in one year if a player like that was waived. For buyouts, like Ndour-Fall in Dallas, the agreed amount has to be split in the same ratio across the remaining years as the original contract. That's why her cap numbers in Dallas look weird - they clearly agreed $220,000 as a total, but that then gets split 108,421/111,579 because that was the ratio in the previous contract. But that may well be due to there being guaranteed money in both years. If Alarie was waived right now, the only guaranteed money would be in 2023, so my guess is that the whole hit would be that year rather than being split across 2022 and 2023.
And no, they don't get to call her back if they decide they've changed their mind - any more than they could do with Ndour-Fall, who's currently still their 4th-highest paid player in 2022  . |
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Stormeo
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 12/29/21 9:05 pm ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
| Richyyy wrote: |
| Dallas exercised the 4th-years on Sabally, Harris and Alarie's contracts. No idea why they did it so early - the deadline is May 15. Technically only the 4th season is guaranteed, so if Alarie was waived tomorrow Dallas would owe her nothing for 2022, but $83,194 for 2023. |
Then that’s actually 50 shades of crazy that the Wings went ahead & picked up all of their options so early.  I could see why they’d do it with Sabally alone as a move of good faith or something, but Harris and Alarie are far from proven players. I mean really, picking up their options this soon also hampers their trade value for this coming free agency period if teams know that they’d be on the hook for either of those players for essentially the next two seasons if they were to trade for them, even if the players’ respective salaries for this year aren’t actually guaranteed. At least if their options hadn’t been picked up yet, other teams could trade for them now and see how they fit in within their own training camp first before pulling the trigger on that 4th year.
Wings gonna Wings, I suppose.  |
Indeed. I'm yet to have anyone give me a good reason for exercising them this early. Sabally, sure, you'd exercise that even if she blew out a knee tomorrow so the timing doesn't really matter. Alarie and Harris in December is bizarre, especially when you've got such a roster crunch that they could easily be part of a deal between now and May. Why take the decision out of the potential trade-partner's hands? |
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DFWub2018
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| Posted: 12/30/21 10:15 am ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
| Richyyy wrote: |
| Dallas exercised the 4th-years on Sabally, Harris and Alarie's contracts. No idea why they did it so early - the deadline is May 15. Technically only the 4th season is guaranteed, so if Alarie was waived tomorrow Dallas would owe her nothing for 2022, but $83,194 for 2023. |
Then that’s actually 50 shades of crazy that the Wings went ahead & picked up all of their options so early. I could see why they’d do it with Sabally alone as a move of good faith or something, but Harris and Alarie are far from proven players. I mean really, picking up their options this soon also hampers their trade value for this coming free agency period if teams know that they’d be on the hook for either of those players for essentially the next two seasons if they were to trade for them, even if the players’ respective salaries for this year aren’t actually guaranteed. At least if their options hadn’t been picked up yet, other teams could trade for them now and see how they fit in within their own training camp first before pulling the trigger on that 4th year.
Wings gonna Wings, I suppose. |
I'm so tired of Greg Bibb, I'm seriously considering this being my last year as a STH!!!
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