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Who will win this game? |
Mercury |
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19% |
[ 4 ] |
Aces |
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80% |
[ 17 ] |
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Total Votes : 21 |
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Admiral_Needa
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 10454 Location: Tiburon, CA
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Posted: 09/26/21 7:20 pm ::: Mercury @ Aces - 9/28/21 |
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WNBA Playoffs - Semi-Finals
Las Vegas, NV - 10:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN2
Game page:
https://www.wnba.com/game/20210928/PHOLVA/
_________________ 2002 WNBA Virtual GM Overall Winner
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66772 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/26/21 7:29 pm ::: |
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Aces won the regular season series 2-1 with the road team taking all three games
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johnjohnW
Joined: 11 Aug 2020 Posts: 1827
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Posted: 09/26/21 8:18 pm ::: |
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This should be fun.
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12493 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Posted: 09/27/21 7:41 am ::: |
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johnjohnW wrote: |
This should be fun. |
I think Both Semis will be interesting .....
_________________ 3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18013 Location: Queens
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Posted: 09/27/21 4:19 pm ::: |
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Vegas already starting with the head games, if SDS's Tweet is to be believed.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16346 Location: Chicago
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Silky Johnson
Joined: 29 Sep 2014 Posts: 3302
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Posted: 09/28/21 1:19 pm ::: |
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On paper, Vegas should win this series. Phoenix only has an advantage at two out of five starting positions, and the advantages they have at those respective positions aren't big enough to consider Phoenix the favorites. The Aces also have a better bench and, if you go by what Mercury fans have to say in the game threads, the better coach. And yet... there's just something about the Aces that I don't trust. They totally feel like a team that could go up 2-0, and lose in 5.
It looks to me like the deciding factor in the series will be Vegas' attention to detail defending the three-point line. In the last four seasons, the Aces are 4-1 versus Phoenix, when they hold them to single-digit three-pointers, and 1-6 when they don't. This appears to be irrespective of what Griner does: in fact, Griner has averaged 22.8 ppg versus the Aces, over the past four seasons, in games in which Phoenix won, and 23.5 ppg, in the games they lost**.
X-Factors: If this were a single-elimination game, I'd say that the X-factor for Phoenix is Taurasi, because you can't discount the possibility that she can summon "that old black magic" for any one game. But, over the course of a five-game series, I expect her to end up getting outplayed. So I believe that the X-factor for Phoenix is going to be Diggins-Smith: while Cunningham's ability to bang threes is likely to be a big difference maker, Diggins-Smith, if not the best player on the Mercury, is arguably the most important, to how their offense goes, and she is entirely untested at this stage, in the WNBA. One would presume that she's built for this, based on her résumé in college and in FIBA, but those things don't necessarily translate to the WNBA, and this is her first-ever appearance in the league semifinals. If she doesn't bring her best game, this is going to be a painful series, for the Mercury.
For the Aces, the X-Factor is Riquina Williams. She is second among active players on the team, behind Chelsea Gray, in terms of playoffs experience, but this is arguably the most heavily that she will be relied upon, in her career. And that is worrisome to me because, for as much can be made about the lack of playoff experience of her teammates, Williams is the only player on the Aces whose career playoff scoring average is less than half her career regular season average. She has, statistically speaking, underperformed in the playoffs, for her career. And, if that continues this week, the Aces are in trouble.
Prediction: Again, based on how these teams look on paper, I expect the Aces to win, three games to one. If they don't win the series in 4, however, I have no confidence whatsoever that they can win a Game 5.
** In computing this average, I threw out the final game of the 2021 regular season, in which Griner only played fifteen minutes, and did not play at all, in the second half.
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mercfan
Joined: 08 May 2013 Posts: 1910
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Posted: 09/28/21 2:43 pm ::: |
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Silky Johnson wrote: |
On paper, Vegas should win this series. Phoenix only has an advantage at two out of five starting positions, and the advantages they have at those respective positions aren't big enough to consider Phoenix the favorites. The Aces also have a better bench and, if you go by what Mercury fans have to say in the game threads, the better coach. And yet... there's just something about the Aces that I don't trust. They totally feel like a team that could go up 2-0, and lose in 5.
It looks to me like the deciding factor in the series will be Vegas' attention to detail defending the three-point line. In the last four seasons, the Aces are 4-1 versus Phoenix, when they hold them to single-digit three-pointers, and 1-6 when they don't. This appears to be irrespective of what Griner does: in fact, Griner has averaged 22.8 ppg versus the Aces, over the past four seasons, in games in which Phoenix won, and 23.5 ppg, in the games they lost**.
X-Factors: If this were a single-elimination game, I'd say that the X-factor for Phoenix is Taurasi, because you can't discount the possibility that she can summon "that old black magic" for any one game. But, over the course of a five-game series, I expect her to end up getting outplayed. So I believe that the X-factor for Phoenix is going to be Diggins-Smith: while Cunningham's ability to bang threes is likely to be a big difference maker, Diggins-Smith, if not the best player on the Mercury, is arguably the most important, to how their offense goes, and she is entirely untested at this stage, in the WNBA. One would presume that she's built for this, based on her résumé in college and in FIBA, but those things don't necessarily translate to the WNBA, and this is her first-ever appearance in the league semifinals. If she doesn't bring her best game, this is going to be a painful series, for the Mercury.
For the Aces, the X-Factor is Riquina Williams. She is second among active players on the team, behind Chelsea Gray, in terms of playoffs experience, but this is arguably the most heavily that she will be relied upon, in her career. And that is worrisome to me because, for as much can be made about the lack of playoff experience of her teammates, Williams is the only player on the Aces whose career playoff scoring average is less than half her career regular season average. She has, statistically speaking, underperformed in the playoffs, for her career. And, if that continues this week, the Aces are in trouble.
Prediction: Again, based on how these teams look on paper, I expect the Aces to win, three games to one. If they don't win the series in 4, however, I have no confidence whatsoever that they can win a Game 5.
** In computing this average, I threw out the final game of the 2021 regular season, in which Griner only played fifteen minutes, and did not play at all, in the second half. |
Good analysis here!
Diggins-Smith absolutely must be the catalyst if Phoenix are to win this series.
I think it's also important to note that two of the three games between these two teams were throwaways this year. The first being the game before the Olympic break with the second being the game before the playoffs. The only other matchup we saw between these teams was without Taurasi and Plum.
This should be incredibly evenly matched. I think the Aces have the depth but the Mercury have the best overall player.
Can't wait!
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SCook
Joined: 09 Oct 2013 Posts: 3254 Location: New Jersey
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Posted: 09/28/21 3:20 pm ::: |
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Silky Johnson wrote: |
On paper, Vegas should win this series. Phoenix only has an advantage at two out of five starting positions, and the advantages they have at those respective positions aren't big enough to consider Phoenix the favorites. The Aces also have a better bench and, if you go by what Mercury fans have to say in the game threads, the better coach. And yet... there's just something about the Aces that I don't trust. They totally feel like a team that could go up 2-0, and lose in 5.
It looks to me like the deciding factor in the series will be Vegas' attention to detail defending the three-point line. In the last four seasons, the Aces are 4-1 versus Phoenix, when they hold them to single-digit three-pointers, and 1-6 when they don't. This appears to be irrespective of what Griner does: in fact, Griner has averaged 22.8 ppg versus the Aces, over the past four seasons, in games in which Phoenix won, and 23.5 ppg, in the games they lost**.
X-Factors: If this were a single-elimination game, I'd say that the X-factor for Phoenix is Taurasi, because you can't discount the possibility that she can summon "that old black magic" for any one game. But, over the course of a five-game series, I expect her to end up getting outplayed. So I believe that the X-factor for Phoenix is going to be Diggins-Smith: while Cunningham's ability to bang threes is likely to be a big difference maker, Diggins-Smith, if not the best player on the Mercury, is arguably the most important, to how their offense goes, and she is entirely untested at this stage, in the WNBA. One would presume that she's built for this, based on her résumé in college and in FIBA, but those things don't necessarily translate to the WNBA, and this is her first-ever appearance in the league semifinals. If she doesn't bring her best game, this is going to be a painful series, for the Mercury.
For the Aces, the X-Factor is Riquina Williams. She is second among active players on the team, behind Chelsea Gray, in terms of playoffs experience, but this is arguably the most heavily that she will be relied upon, in her career. And that is worrisome to me because, for as much can be made about the lack of playoff experience of her teammates, Williams is the only player on the Aces whose career playoff scoring average is less than half her career regular season average. She has, statistically speaking, underperformed in the playoffs, for her career. And, if that continues this week, the Aces are in trouble.
Prediction: Again, based on how these teams look on paper, I expect the Aces to win, three games to one. If they don't win the series in 4, however, I have no confidence whatsoever that they can win a Game 5.
** In computing this average, I threw out the final game of the 2021 regular season, in which Griner only played fifteen minutes, and did not play at all, in the second half. |
I'd like to say that Bria Hartley is also another x factor for Phoenix. With DT being injured, Hartley, in my opinion, is the best guard off the bench. She also doesn't really overthink her game too much. It wouldn't surprise me if Sandy pulls her off the bench first in this series. BG and Skylar are your 1 & 2 combo. Bria helps spread the floor and she also helps get the ball out of Skylar's hands so she can focus on scoring.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the line up from the last game with Bria, Kia, Skylar, and Sophie out there at times to get BG and Turner rest. Especially, if they are hitting their 3's.
_________________ In La'Kech: I Am You. You Are Me. We Are Us
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Tally24
Joined: 14 Feb 2012 Posts: 2709 Location: Baton Rouge
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Posted: 09/28/21 4:18 pm ::: |
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I’m not sure if this has been discussed, but, is Diana back for good now? Or, is she still a day-to-day game time decision? I’m thrilled she was able to play and she made some big shots down the stretch, but she’s clearly not 100%. With just two days of rest, will she be able to give it a go tonight? Obviously, a series is an entirely different animal than a single elimination game, so there’s wiggle room with how she’s used against Vegas where “there’s always tomorrow…”. |
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SCook
Joined: 09 Oct 2013 Posts: 3254 Location: New Jersey
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Posted: 09/28/21 5:06 pm ::: |
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Tally24 wrote: |
I’m not sure if this has been discussed, but, is Diana back for good now? Or, is she still a day-to-day game time decision? I’m thrilled she was able to play and she made some big shots down the stretch, but she’s clearly not 100%. With just two days of rest, will she be able to give it a go tonight? Obviously, a series is an entirely different animal than a single elimination game, so there’s wiggle room with how she’s used against Vegas where “there’s always tomorrow…”. |
She is still day to day game time decision. Sandy said that they will allow her to decide whether she can play or not because she knows her body better than anyone.
Mercury injury report had her as questionable.
_________________ In La'Kech: I Am You. You Are Me. We Are Us
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johnjohnW
Joined: 11 Aug 2020 Posts: 1827
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Posted: 09/28/21 5:23 pm ::: |
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I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3.
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mercfan
Joined: 08 May 2013 Posts: 1910
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Posted: 09/28/21 6:41 pm ::: |
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johnjohnW wrote: |
I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3. |
On the flip side, Vegas should come out a little rusty having not played in quite a while + jitters.
Are we better suited to have Taurasi go tonight and solidify that win or rest her and lose by 2?
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SCook
Joined: 09 Oct 2013 Posts: 3254 Location: New Jersey
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Posted: 09/28/21 7:02 pm ::: |
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mercfan wrote: |
johnjohnW wrote: |
I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3. |
On the flip side, Vegas should come out a little rusty having not played in quite a while + jitters.
Are we better suited to have Taurasi go tonight and solidify that win or rest her and lose by 2? |
If Bria plays, we should still be able to pull out a close win. But who knows.
_________________ In La'Kech: I Am You. You Are Me. We Are Us
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mercfan
Joined: 08 May 2013 Posts: 1910
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Posted: 09/28/21 7:07 pm ::: |
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SCook wrote: |
mercfan wrote: |
johnjohnW wrote: |
I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3. |
On the flip side, Vegas should come out a little rusty having not played in quite a while + jitters.
Are we better suited to have Taurasi go tonight and solidify that win or rest her and lose by 2? |
If Bria plays, we should still be able to pull out a close win. But who knows. |
Either way, I feel confident with what the Mercury can do. Griner is just that good and the Aces really struggle with her.
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3510
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Posted: 09/28/21 7:30 pm ::: |
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mercfan wrote: |
johnjohnW wrote: |
I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3. |
On the flip side, Vegas should come out a little rusty having not played in quite a while + jitters.
Are we better suited to have Taurasi go tonight and solidify that win or rest her and lose by 2? |
Every time the Aces get a week off, they play like crap.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19725
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Posted: 09/28/21 7:31 pm ::: |
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SCook wrote: |
Silky Johnson wrote: |
On paper, Vegas should win this series. Phoenix only has an advantage at two out of five starting positions, and the advantages they have at those respective positions aren't big enough to consider Phoenix the favorites. The Aces also have a better bench and, if you go by what Mercury fans have to say in the game threads, the better coach. And yet... there's just something about the Aces that I don't trust. They totally feel like a team that could go up 2-0, and lose in 5.
It looks to me like the deciding factor in the series will be Vegas' attention to detail defending the three-point line. In the last four seasons, the Aces are 4-1 versus Phoenix, when they hold them to single-digit three-pointers, and 1-6 when they don't. This appears to be irrespective of what Griner does: in fact, Griner has averaged 22.8 ppg versus the Aces, over the past four seasons, in games in which Phoenix won, and 23.5 ppg, in the games they lost**.
X-Factors: If this were a single-elimination game, I'd say that the X-factor for Phoenix is Taurasi, because you can't discount the possibility that she can summon "that old black magic" for any one game. But, over the course of a five-game series, I expect her to end up getting outplayed. So I believe that the X-factor for Phoenix is going to be Diggins-Smith: while Cunningham's ability to bang threes is likely to be a big difference maker, Diggins-Smith, if not the best player on the Mercury, is arguably the most important, to how their offense goes, and she is entirely untested at this stage, in the WNBA. One would presume that she's built for this, based on her résumé in college and in FIBA, but those things don't necessarily translate to the WNBA, and this is her first-ever appearance in the league semifinals. If she doesn't bring her best game, this is going to be a painful series, for the Mercury.
For the Aces, the X-Factor is Riquina Williams. She is second among active players on the team, behind Chelsea Gray, in terms of playoffs experience, but this is arguably the most heavily that she will be relied upon, in her career. And that is worrisome to me because, for as much can be made about the lack of playoff experience of her teammates, Williams is the only player on the Aces whose career playoff scoring average is less than half her career regular season average. She has, statistically speaking, underperformed in the playoffs, for her career. And, if that continues this week, the Aces are in trouble.
Prediction: Again, based on how these teams look on paper, I expect the Aces to win, three games to one. If they don't win the series in 4, however, I have no confidence whatsoever that they can win a Game 5.
** In computing this average, I threw out the final game of the 2021 regular season, in which Griner only played fifteen minutes, and did not play at all, in the second half. |
I'd like to say that Bria Hartley is also another x factor for Phoenix. With DT being injured, Hartley, in my opinion, is the best guard off the bench. She also doesn't really overthink her game too much. It wouldn't surprise me if Sandy pulls her off the bench first in this series. BG and Skylar are your 1 & 2 combo. Bria helps spread the floor and she also helps get the ball out of Skylar's hands so she can focus on scoring.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the line up from the last game with Bria, Kia, Skylar, and Sophie out there at times to get BG and Turner rest. Especially, if they are hitting their 3's. |
Agree, and not just because I love Bria.
I expect someone coming from all of her injuries to be inconsistent, and it may be too much to ask of her to throw her into the playoffs now. But she's also shown in the few games she's been back that she's capable of getting hot where she is now. Against a bench crew that can be important.
Also, last season Bria was one of our best guards at getting Brit the ball, something underrated but essential.
I wouldn't even be opposed to trying to sit Taurasi for this game, and play Bria instead - just to give DT another game's rest. She pulled some stuff out of her butt in the Seattle game, but that was pure adreniline and the will to beat her bff on possibly the last time she gets to play her. She still looked like she shouldn't be playing..
TBH, if she was healthy - I'd be confident. But because she's not, and because Bria isn't really ready either, we are way to reliant on Nurse/Peddy/Cunningham. All of whom are capable of really good moments, but not enough to cover us over the series.
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
Last edited by mercfan3 on 09/28/21 7:38 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19725
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Posted: 09/28/21 7:31 pm ::: |
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double post
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
Last edited by mercfan3 on 09/28/21 7:33 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19725
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SCook
Joined: 09 Oct 2013 Posts: 3254 Location: New Jersey
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Posted: 09/28/21 7:57 pm ::: |
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According to Ryan Ruocco, Diana is playing tonight.
_________________ In La'Kech: I Am You. You Are Me. We Are Us
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Tally24
Joined: 14 Feb 2012 Posts: 2709 Location: Baton Rouge
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Posted: 09/28/21 8:31 pm ::: |
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SCook wrote: |
According to Ryan Ruocco, Diana is playing tonight. |
Oh, tea. |
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12493 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Posted: 09/28/21 8:37 pm ::: |
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SCook wrote: |
mercfan wrote: |
johnjohnW wrote: |
I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3. |
On the flip side, Vegas should come out a little rusty having not played in quite a while + jitters.
Are we better suited to have Taurasi go tonight and solidify that win or rest her and lose by 2? |
If Bria plays, we should still be able to pull out a close win. But who knows. |
Bria was available on both previous rounds and gave nothing I don’t even think Sandy played her against Seattle at all. Hard to think she will be a factor at anytime this season with how long she’s been out. She does not have EDD or Alyssa Thomas skill sets to be as effective imo. Great analysis by Silky btw I totally agree on every aspect of this series .
_________________ 3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19725
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Posted: 09/28/21 8:40 pm ::: |
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WNBA 09 wrote: |
SCook wrote: |
mercfan wrote: |
johnjohnW wrote: |
I say sit her for this game. She was effective but hobbled last game. This team isn't going to win the series on her back. They need to figure out how to steal a game with her in the bench and have her come back more rested for game 2 or 3. |
On the flip side, Vegas should come out a little rusty having not played in quite a while + jitters.
Are we better suited to have Taurasi go tonight and solidify that win or rest her and lose by 2? |
If Bria plays, we should still be able to pull out a close win. But who knows. |
Bria was available on both previous rounds and gave nothing I don’t even think Sandy played her against Seattle at all. Hard to think she will be a factor at anytime this season with how long she’s been out. She does not have EDD or Alyssa Thomas skill sets to be as effective imo. Great analysis by Silky btw I totally agree on every aspect of this series . |
Sandy said Bria needs a few minutes to warm up, and she just didn't feel she had the minutes to do that in a single elimination game. Which is understandable - but unfortunate. IMO, a lot of the season depended on getting a playable Bria back because she's just such a difference between Nurse/Peddy
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12493 Location: Dallas , Texas
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johnjohnW
Joined: 11 Aug 2020 Posts: 1827
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Posted: 09/28/21 9:09 pm ::: |
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Taurasi playing.
PHX looks good to start. Turner is the best cutter in the league.
Riquana and Nurse off to hot starts.
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