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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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 Posted: 11/07/24 7:19 pm ::: |
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The great Walter Kirn tweeted this earlier today.
“The Harris campaign was a play about a campaign, a simulation run by the media, and I feel bad for people who were taken in emotionally by it. I'm also angry about the Trump is Hitler fear op that has so many petrified right now. Again, an unscrupulous corporate media did this.”_________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 11/07/24 11:47 pm ::: |
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Interesting thoughts, jammer....for me, it raises more questions than it resolves. More on that later.
| Luuuc wrote: |
Just playing devil's advocate on that, I don't think the math is that simple.
It seems to me from afar that a significant factor in US elections is how many people actually cast a vote, since doing so is voluntary (and in many cases, also inconvenient). Any type of "movement" that gets one side voting could have quite an impact.
Secondly, a margin of X million can mean very little or even literally nothing for the final outcome, depending on how those extra votes are distributed. |
You were quite right on that, Luuuc. Here are some (hopefully, reasonably?) valid numbers I found from a friend's fb page:
| Quote: |
Funny, even though the vote turnout was supposed to be larger than last time, there seem to over 15 Million fewer total votes. Most missing from the Democrat side.
2024: Dem 67,856,529 Rep 72,543,738
2020: Dem 81,284,666 Rep 74,224,319 |
Those figures might change a bit, but not in any meaningful way. Maybe it's just a PA thing, but serving as a poll worker at my precinct, I was pleasantly surprised to learn we hit record numbers of voters here. And we certainly weren't a *one-off* in this part of PA.
That there were almost FOURTEEN MILLION fewer Dem voters than in '20? WTF?? 😱
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 11/08/24 8:44 am ::: |
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| They're still counting votes. I would suggest not comparing the 2020 final count to the 2024 partial count we have now.
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Stonington_QB
Joined: 05 Jul 2013
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 11/08/24 1:51 pm ::: |
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It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
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scullyfu
Joined: 01 Jan 2006
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Location: Niagara Falls
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| Posted: 11/08/24 2:28 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
Both Florida & Georgia have rules on the books that mail-in ballots & on-site early votes is counted as they come in. Other states wait til voting polls close on the actual day of regular voting.
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threadkiller1201
Joined: 19 Sep 2005
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| Posted: 11/08/24 4:51 pm ::: |
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| Lots of mail-in ballots in these states I believe.
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bcdawg04
Joined: 12 Apr 2016
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Location: Seattle
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| Posted: 11/08/24 7:22 pm ::: |
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| scullyfu wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
Both Florida & Georgia have rules on the books that mail-in ballots & on-site early votes is counted as they come in. Other states wait til voting polls close on the actual day of regular voting. |
| threadkiller1201 wrote: |
| Lots of mail-in ballots in these states I believe. |
Washington is 100% mail-in.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 11/08/24 8:20 pm ::: |
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| bcdawg04 wrote: |
| scullyfu wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
Both Florida & Georgia have rules on the books that mail-in ballots & on-site early votes is counted as they come in. Other states wait til voting polls close on the actual day of regular voting. |
| threadkiller1201 wrote: |
| Lots of mail-in ballots in these states I believe. |
Washington is 100% mail-in. |
These responses help understand the delay. Bcdawg04, you apparently live in Washington, but I read that the state has in-person voting during an 18 day early voting period and on election day. Is that wrong? |
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bcdawg04
Joined: 12 Apr 2016
Posts: 620
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: 11/08/24 9:46 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| bcdawg04 wrote: |
| scullyfu wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
Both Florida & Georgia have rules on the books that mail-in ballots & on-site early votes is counted as they come in. Other states wait til voting polls close on the actual day of regular voting. |
| threadkiller1201 wrote: |
| Lots of mail-in ballots in these states I believe. |
Washington is 100% mail-in. |
These responses help understand the delay. Bcdawg04, you apparently live in Washington, but I read that the state has in-person voting during an 18 day early voting period and on election day. Is that wrong? |
Yes, I do. Every registered voter in the state receives a ballot in the mail. We can mail them back (a few years ago, they stopped requiring a postage stamp on ballots) or we can deposit them in a ballot drop box. King County, which includes the city of Seattle, has over 80 ballot drop boxes. As I understand, each county has at least one in-person voting center. My voter's pamphlet says, "Election staff are available to help you register to vote and get a ballot through Election Day. Trained staff and specialized equipment are available to help voters with disabilities cast a private, independent ballot." That sounds like, unless you need the specialized equipment, you would get a ballot that you then either mail in or deposit in a ballot drop box.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15923
Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 11/08/24 10:06 pm ::: |
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2024 - newer #: 69,204,767 Dem.....Rep 73,517,201
(previous post:) 67,856,529............ (R) 72,543,738
2020: Dem 81,284,666 Rep 74,224,319
Yeah, they're changing but....the Dems are STILL missing about 10+ MILLION voters that voted for Biden. Unbelievable. And T-rump still didn't hit what he had gotten 4 years ago. Twilight Zone stuff, to me.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 11/08/24 10:50 pm ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
| Yeah, they're changing but....the Dems are STILL missing about 10+ MILLION voters that voted for Biden. Unbelievable. And T-rump still didn't hit what he had gotten 4 years ago. Twilight Zone stuff, to me. |
It's actually 2020 that's strange, not 2024. The number of votes jumped by more than 20 million over 2016, a difference unheard of in US election history.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 11/08/24 11:55 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| Yeah, they're changing but....the Dems are STILL missing about 10+ MILLION voters that voted for Biden. Unbelievable. And T-rump still didn't hit what he had gotten 4 years ago. Twilight Zone stuff, to me. |
It's actually 2020 that's strange, not 2024. The number of votes jumped by more than 20 million over 2016, a difference unheard of in US election history. |
I still say this year's the strange one....it's all about perspective; in 2020, Trump's reign ingnited (as you said) incredible turnout. Now, four years later - AFTER J6, the trials, the proven lies, and all the other things that shoulda motivated constituents - FEWER people turn out??? That makes me think that we're seeing inurred, indifferent Americans who just don't Fiv a Guck any more.
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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| Posted: 11/09/24 3:53 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| Yeah, they're changing but....the Dems are STILL missing about 10+ MILLION voters that voted for Biden. Unbelievable. And T-rump still didn't hit what he had gotten 4 years ago. Twilight Zone stuff, to me. |
It's actually 2020 that's strange, not 2024. The number of votes jumped by more than 20 million over 2016, a difference unheard of in US election history. |
Some of the analysis I've read mentioned that in 2020 most states made it super-easy for people to vote, due to Covid.
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 11/09/24 5:37 am ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| bcdawg04 wrote: |
| scullyfu wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
Both Florida & Georgia have rules on the books that mail-in ballots & on-site early votes is counted as they come in. Other states wait til voting polls close on the actual day of regular voting. |
| threadkiller1201 wrote: |
| Lots of mail-in ballots in these states I believe. |
Washington is 100% mail-in. |
These responses help understand the delay. Bcdawg04, you apparently live in Washington, but I read that the state has in-person voting during an 18 day early voting period and on election day. Is that wrong? |
How much of a delay is there due to the fires in the ballot boxes? I haven't read any further than the headlines, so I don't know how many ballots are even thought to have been involved.
How do they even begin to track down the people whose ballots were impacted?
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wnbafan
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Delaware
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| Posted: 11/09/24 8:19 am ::: |
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| How do we get rid of the electoral college? I understand it wouldn't have made a difference this year but we know it was developed for slave owners. Of course, I don't believe in the party system either. We need to take the money out of politics... I know, big feat.
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bcdawg04
Joined: 12 Apr 2016
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Location: Seattle
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| Posted: 11/09/24 11:24 am ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| bcdawg04 wrote: |
| scullyfu wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
It's puzzling to me that as I write this, three days after the election, DDHQ (the best reporting source I've found) reports that Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington have finished counting only 80%, 63%, 82% and 79% of their votes. Why are these left coast states so slow? Florida and probably a lot of other states that don't get a lot of attention had 95% counted within a couple of hours of their polls closing.
The final vote counts will determine the magnitude of Trump's popular vote victory (if any), the senator from Arizona and who controls the House.
If there is still a big decline in the Democrat popular vote from (basement campaign) Biden in 2020 to Harris in 2024, it logically could be explained only by Democrat votes going to Trump, or by lower Democrat turnout, or by ???. We'll see. |
Both Florida & Georgia have rules on the books that mail-in ballots & on-site early votes is counted as they come in. Other states wait til voting polls close on the actual day of regular voting. |
| threadkiller1201 wrote: |
| Lots of mail-in ballots in these states I believe. |
Washington is 100% mail-in. |
These responses help understand the delay. Bcdawg04, you apparently live in Washington, but I read that the state has in-person voting during an 18 day early voting period and on election day. Is that wrong? |
How much of a delay is there due to the fires in the ballot boxes? I haven't read any further than the headlines, so I don't know how many ballots are even thought to have been involved.
How do they even begin to track down the people whose ballots were impacted? |
Good questions. I was gutted when I read about the ballot box fires. I immediately started thinking about what the election officials would have to do and what I would have done if it were my ballot box. Those boxes are apparently supposed to have a fire suppression system.
Clark County Auditor releases photos, update on damaged ballots
Of the ballots that were merely damaged in the fire in Vancouver, only 6 were unidentifiable. There were 488 identifiable damaged ballots. Within 3 days, 345 of those voters contacted the county for a replacement ballot and the county mailed a replacement ballot to the other 143.
Unfortunately, there could have been ballots that were completely destroyed.
County election officials let their voters know the last time they picked up from the ballot box before the fire so anyone who used the box in that timeframe could check the status of their ballot.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8356
Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 11/09/24 2:52 pm ::: |
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| wnbafan wrote: |
| How do we get rid of the electoral college? |
Only by amending the U.S. Constitution.
This would require a constitutional convention to be called either by a 2/3 vote of both houses of Congress or by a request by 2/3 of the states. After that, the amendment would have to ratified by 3/4 of the states, which means 38 states.
Never going to happen. |
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 11/09/24 4:21 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| wnbafan wrote: |
| How do we get rid of the electoral college? |
Only by amending the U.S. Constitution.
This would require a constitutional convention to be called either by a 2/3 vote of both houses of Congress or by a request by 2/3 of the states. After that, the amendment would have to ratified by 3/4 of the states, which means 38 states.
Never going to happen. |
Perhaps I should add that there are possible ways to make sure the popular vote winner wins the electoral college vote without amending the constitution to abolish electoral college. These possibilities try to take advantage of the fact that the constitution allows states to instruct their electors in the electoral college to vote for the popular vote winner.
The most well-known of these attempts is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which is explained in many sources. To me, it's doubtful that any of these potential mechanisms can get sufficient state political support in the foreseeable future. |
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scullyfu
Joined: 01 Jan 2006
Posts: 8901
Location: Niagara Falls
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| Posted: 11/10/24 8:17 am ::: |
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| wnbafan wrote: |
| How do we get rid of the electoral college? I understand it wouldn't have made a difference this year but we know it was developed for slave owners. Of course, I don't believe in the party system either. We need to take the money out of politics... I know, big feat. |
Lawrence O’Donnell, MSNBC, calls the Electoral College the biggest suppressor of voting. States that we know are going to go blue or red discourages folks to actually vote. They already know who their state will be voting for., so why bother? Something like 7 million eligible people in CA alone don’t bother to vote. NY is somewhere in that ballpark. That’s a lot of non-participation just in two states.
Exacerbating that problem is that there are still the down ticket races to be decided. Senate, House, Propositions, etc. that are also being decided by fewer voters. So, it truly is whichever party can do the best job of getting out the vote.
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
Posts: 9463
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| Posted: 11/10/24 11:14 am ::: |
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| scullyfu wrote: |
| wnbafan wrote: |
| How do we get rid of the electoral college? I understand it wouldn't have made a difference this year but we know it was developed for slave owners. Of course, I don't believe in the party system either. We need to take the money out of politics... I know, big feat. |
Lawrence O’Donnell, MSNBC, calls the Electoral College the biggest suppressor of voting. States that we know are going to go blue or red discourages folks to actually vote. They already know who their state will be voting for., so why bother? Something like 7 million eligible people in CA alone don’t bother to vote. NY is somewhere in that ballpark. That’s a lot of non-participation just in two states.
Exacerbating that problem is that there are still the down ticket races to be decided. Senate, House, Propositions, etc. that are also being decided by fewer voters. So, it truly is whichever party can do the best job of getting out the vote. |
Or which state is better Gerrymandered. Like Indiana.
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"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 11/10/24 11:53 am ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
| Or which state is better Gerrymandered. Like Indiana. |
I feel you. All 13 incumbent congresspersons who ran in Georgia won easily. The one seat without an incumbent was won by the incumbent party. Only one race had a winner with 60% of the vote, GA2 was 56-44 for Sanford Bishop.
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 11/11/24 12:31 am ::: |
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Trump Secretary of Defense candidate is a turbo-brained anti-war intellectual.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PtsGqGc-Iuw?si=zBo2hJm5vE5xICJr" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>_________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 11/11/24 11:35 am ::: |
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I think that someone needs to go back to high school world history/government class.
| Quote: |
| “I think it was Thomas Jefferson who said when people fear their government, there is tyranny,” she said. “We had tyranny under the Biden-Harris machine.” |
Well, if you don't incite an insurrection, steal classified documents, sexually assault women (I know that was state, just need to keep that on the record), there would be no call for DOJ to become involved.
| Quote: |
The resident of Cumming, Georgia, also agreed with Trump’s contention that the Biden administration had unleashed the Department of Justice on political adversaries.
“That’s something they do in Russia. That’s something they would do in China, not the United States, not here in the beacon of freedom for the world,” Dooley said. |
Wow, this woman is a special kind of stupid. No surprise she's involved with the Tea Party.
https://www.wishtv.com/news/democracy-was-a-motivating-factor-for-both-harris-and-trump-voters-but-for-very-different-reasons/
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"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw
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