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Bracketology: 2023 NCAA Tournament
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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 11/23/22 10:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Even when I was attempting Bracketology I never even looked at it until January. You certainly can't tell much of anything before Thanksgiving.



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ArtBest23



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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PostPosted: 11/23/22 11:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Now you're all talking about the judgmental aspects of how teams should be seeded today.

But you're ignoring the reality that if you're taking a snapshot of today being selection day, it is indisputable that if you don't have a .500 record you are not eligible. Period. There's nothing to argue about.

How you rank and seed teams at this point based on so little record is pure speculation and I agree with pilight that you can't tell much of anything, which I've been saying in the rankings thread repeatedly. But the selection rules aren't judgemental or speculative; they're the rules.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 11/23/22 5:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creme puts out his bracketology weekly but it is clear that each week is merely an adjustment from the previous week. This creates a preseason bias which becomes problematic when they are off. For Power 6 teams (including the Big East) this will self-correct during the season because of their numerous conference games against top 50 teams. But when it comes to others they essentially make their resumes in November and December. So how are the potential tournament interlopers from smaller conferences doing?

South Dakota St (4-2) Wins over Louisville and Mississippi St, losses to Creighton and UCLA.
Remaining significant non-conference games (SNCG), Washington St, Kansas St, South Carolina.
Current Seeding 5

Gonzaga (5-1) Wins over Tennessee and Louisville, loss to Marquette. Remaining SNCG, Stanford
Current Seeding 5

Princeton (3-1) Best win over Seton Hall, loss to Villanova.
Remaining SNCG: Texas, Connecticut
Current Seeding 7

Florida Gulf Coast (4-0) No wins of note
Remaining SNCG: Stanford, Duke and Kentucky
Current seeding 9

Drake (2-1) Win over Nebraska, loss to Iowa.
Remaining SNCG: South Dakota, Creighton and Iowa St.
Current Seeding 10

South Dakota (4-1) No wins of note, loss to Creighton
Remaining SNCG
Current seeding 11

Massachusetts (4-1) No wins of note, Loss to Tennessee
Remaining SNCG: Drake and Missouri
Current Seeding 12

Absent a major upset I believe these are the only 6 teams outside the major conferences that could get an at-large bid.


Coyotes



Joined: 28 Jan 2018
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PostPosted: 11/23/22 6:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Asking for a friend, Cal - what do you consider major conferences? I would assume P5+BEAST?

If that's the case a team like South Florida could get an at large. They have a decent win over Alabama already, with Georgia Tech, Texas, NC State, and Ohio State still on the schedule.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 11/23/22 8:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Mass and Drake play each other this week, so that could make a difference.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 11/24/22 12:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Coyotes wrote:
Asking for a friend, Cal - what do you consider major conferences? I would assume P5+BEAST?

If that's the case a team like South Florida could get an at large. They have a decent win over Alabama already, with Georgia Tech, Texas, NC State, and Ohio State still on the schedule.


You are correct on both counts. I don't think anyone else in the American can get an at large without a major upset (UCF, Tulane and Memphis all have opportunities, and if more than 1 pulls off an upset the entire conference may get reevaluated), but South Florida has several games in the next month that could make their resume appealing.

South Florida (6-0) Best win over Alabama so far.
Remaining SNCG: Georgia Tech, possilbly Michigan and either Baylor or Villanova, Texas, North Carolina St., Ohio St and either Oregon or Arkansas.
Current Seeding 6

The Bulls probably need 2 or 3 wins in those 7 games to get consideration.


CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 11/24/22 4:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well, I believe Creme's top 16 seeds in the last Bracketology in March has improved in accuracy by quite a bit since the NCAA started listing their top 16 seeds in advance... Wink

I would love to see an analysis of Creme's Bracketology comparing it to eventual bracket:

1. From the preseason
2. Before the NCAA announces their top 16 overall seeds.
3. Right before the Tournament selection, including going back before the NCAA gave a preview listing of the top 16 overall seeds.

I'd be willing to bet that it wouldn't really be much better than an average W. BBall fan could come up with.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 11/24/22 4:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Anyone posting on this board could have made a prediction back in May and gotten at least 40 of the 68 teams who will be in the tournament.

It's not an accident that they dispose of the old guesses when they post a new one.



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undersized_post



Joined: 01 Mar 2021
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PostPosted: 11/29/22 9:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

undersized_post wrote:
In other news, Iowa State moves up to the last 1-seed line. Time for the curse of the fourth 1-seed to strike and the Cyclones to take an L. Twisted Evil


Welp I successfully manifested a Cyclone loss. Now Indiana moves up to a 1-seed, just in time to face North Carolina *without* the services of an injured Grace Berger. I'll be rooting for Indiana, but I can't help feeling that the curse of the 4th 1-seed is going to strike again this week.



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/29/22 2:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ignoring any curse, can someone please explain to me what IU has done to remotely warrant their status as the current darling of the pollsters and Creme? They got a bunch of unwarranted attention for beating Tennessee which we now know was a mirage, and otherwise haven't beaten anyone with a pulse. Those same pollsters looked at their team and didn't think they were top 10 before the season started, and since then they've beaten teams they should have beaten and were expected to beat, plus Tenn, and suddenly they're a final four squad?

I still think it's a crap shoot how you order the next dozen teams after UConn, but even so, how does IU get picked out of that pack and keep getting moved up? I could understand if, for example, UNC had been elevated to that 4th spot, but that would at least have been an arguably well-earned reward for beating highly ranked and previously undefeated Oregon and Iowa St last week. Meanwhile IU has done nothing comparable and was kept busy by beating Memphis and Auburn in an empty hotel ballroom and is suddenly Final Four bound?

Please offer some semblance of an explanation for this?

I understand these things are largely meaningless, especially at this point of the season, but this has reached new levels of absurdity. And they're not totally meaningless. The reality is that having been undeservedly annointed a championship contender, IU will carry that halo all season and right into selection day regardless of what happens the next three months. Barring a total collapse, they are now virtually assured of getting overseeded in the real bracket just because people thought for some unknown reason that they're a final four team today. Perceptions do matter and are hard to shake.


undersized_post



Joined: 01 Mar 2021
Posts: 2625
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PostPosted: 12/01/22 11:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

undersized_post wrote:
undersized_post wrote:
In other news, Iowa State moves up to the last 1-seed line. Time for the curse of the fourth 1-seed to strike and the Cyclones to take an L. Twisted Evil


Welp I successfully manifested a Cyclone loss. Now Indiana moves up to a 1-seed, just in time to face North Carolina *without* the services of an injured Grace Berger. I'll be rooting for Indiana, but I can't help feeling that the curse of the 4th 1-seed is going to strike again this week.


Indiana escapes the curse. For now. Twisted Evil



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PickledGinger



Joined: 04 Oct 2013
Posts: 1268



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PostPosted: 12/02/22 1:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
Ignoring any curse, can someone please explain to me what IU has done to remotely warrant their status as the current darling of the pollsters and Creme?


But who else has done more? I know this was written before today's blowout of one of two teams that could have had an argument to be above them, but still. You sure spent a whole lot of time arguing against them without suggesting any kind of alternative.

Also, it's barely December. You really think that if someone goes 12-6 in conference play they're gonna be a 1 or 2 seed on their reputation from 3 months ago?



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