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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67051 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 11/23/22 10:16 am ::: |
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Even when I was attempting Bracketology I never even looked at it until January. You certainly can't tell much of anything before Thanksgiving.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 11/23/22 11:55 am ::: |
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Now you're all talking about the judgmental aspects of how teams should be seeded today.
But you're ignoring the reality that if you're taking a snapshot of today being selection day, it is indisputable that if you don't have a .500 record you are not eligible. Period. There's nothing to argue about.
How you rank and seed teams at this point based on so little record is pure speculation and I agree with pilight that you can't tell much of anything, which I've been saying in the rankings thread repeatedly. But the selection rules aren't judgemental or speculative; they're the rules.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 11/23/22 5:43 pm ::: |
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Creme puts out his bracketology weekly but it is clear that each week is merely an adjustment from the previous week. This creates a preseason bias which becomes problematic when they are off. For Power 6 teams (including the Big East) this will self-correct during the season because of their numerous conference games against top 50 teams. But when it comes to others they essentially make their resumes in November and December. So how are the potential tournament interlopers from smaller conferences doing?
South Dakota St (4-2) Wins over Louisville and Mississippi St, losses to Creighton and UCLA.
Remaining significant non-conference games (SNCG), Washington St, Kansas St, South Carolina.
Current Seeding 5
Gonzaga (5-1) Wins over Tennessee and Louisville, loss to Marquette. Remaining SNCG, Stanford
Current Seeding 5
Princeton (3-1) Best win over Seton Hall, loss to Villanova.
Remaining SNCG: Texas, Connecticut
Current Seeding 7
Florida Gulf Coast (4-0) No wins of note
Remaining SNCG: Stanford, Duke and Kentucky
Current seeding 9
Drake (2-1) Win over Nebraska, loss to Iowa.
Remaining SNCG: South Dakota, Creighton and Iowa St.
Current Seeding 10
South Dakota (4-1) No wins of note, loss to Creighton
Remaining SNCG
Current seeding 11
Massachusetts (4-1) No wins of note, Loss to Tennessee
Remaining SNCG: Drake and Missouri
Current Seeding 12
Absent a major upset I believe these are the only 6 teams outside the major conferences that could get an at-large bid.
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018 Posts: 1467
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Posted: 11/23/22 6:38 pm ::: |
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Asking for a friend, Cal - what do you consider major conferences? I would assume P5+BEAST?
If that's the case a team like South Florida could get an at large. They have a decent win over Alabama already, with Georgia Tech, Texas, NC State, and Ohio State still on the schedule.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 11/23/22 8:53 pm ::: |
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Mass and Drake play each other this week, so that could make a difference.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 11/24/22 12:53 am ::: |
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Coyotes wrote: |
Asking for a friend, Cal - what do you consider major conferences? I would assume P5+BEAST?
If that's the case a team like South Florida could get an at large. They have a decent win over Alabama already, with Georgia Tech, Texas, NC State, and Ohio State still on the schedule. |
You are correct on both counts. I don't think anyone else in the American can get an at large without a major upset (UCF, Tulane and Memphis all have opportunities, and if more than 1 pulls off an upset the entire conference may get reevaluated), but South Florida has several games in the next month that could make their resume appealing.
South Florida (6-0) Best win over Alabama so far.
Remaining SNCG: Georgia Tech, possilbly Michigan and either Baylor or Villanova, Texas, North Carolina St., Ohio St and either Oregon or Arkansas.
Current Seeding 6
The Bulls probably need 2 or 3 wins in those 7 games to get consideration.
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1058 Location: PA
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67051 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 11/24/22 4:44 pm ::: |
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Anyone posting on this board could have made a prediction back in May and gotten at least 40 of the 68 teams who will be in the tournament.
It's not an accident that they dispose of the old guesses when they post a new one.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021 Posts: 2864
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 11/29/22 2:20 pm ::: |
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Ignoring any curse, can someone please explain to me what IU has done to remotely warrant their status as the current darling of the pollsters and Creme? They got a bunch of unwarranted attention for beating Tennessee which we now know was a mirage, and otherwise haven't beaten anyone with a pulse. Those same pollsters looked at their team and didn't think they were top 10 before the season started, and since then they've beaten teams they should have beaten and were expected to beat, plus Tenn, and suddenly they're a final four squad?
I still think it's a crap shoot how you order the next dozen teams after UConn, but even so, how does IU get picked out of that pack and keep getting moved up? I could understand if, for example, UNC had been elevated to that 4th spot, but that would at least have been an arguably well-earned reward for beating highly ranked and previously undefeated Oregon and Iowa St last week. Meanwhile IU has done nothing comparable and was kept busy by beating Memphis and Auburn in an empty hotel ballroom and is suddenly Final Four bound?
Please offer some semblance of an explanation for this?
I understand these things are largely meaningless, especially at this point of the season, but this has reached new levels of absurdity. And they're not totally meaningless. The reality is that having been undeservedly annointed a championship contender, IU will carry that halo all season and right into selection day regardless of what happens the next three months. Barring a total collapse, they are now virtually assured of getting overseeded in the real bracket just because people thought for some unknown reason that they're a final four team today. Perceptions do matter and are hard to shake.
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021 Posts: 2864
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PickledGinger
Joined: 04 Oct 2013 Posts: 1371
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Posted: 12/02/22 1:46 am ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
Ignoring any curse, can someone please explain to me what IU has done to remotely warrant their status as the current darling of the pollsters and Creme? |
But who else has done more? I know this was written before today's blowout of one of two teams that could have had an argument to be above them, but still. You sure spent a whole lot of time arguing against them without suggesting any kind of alternative.
Also, it's barely December. You really think that if someone goes 12-6 in conference play they're gonna be a 1 or 2 seed on their reputation from 3 months ago?
_________________ Unspoken expectations are just premeditated resentments.
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021 Posts: 2864
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Posted: 12/29/22 6:54 pm ::: |
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whispers curse of the 1-seed...
_________________ RebKell's 2021-2022 NCAA Fantasy League Regular Season Champion 🏆
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67051 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 12/29/22 7:07 pm ::: |
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PickledGinger wrote: |
Also, it's barely December. You really think that if someone goes 12-6 in conference play they're gonna be a 1 or 2 seed on their reputation from 3 months ago? |
That's basically what Indiana did last season to get a three seed. They went 11-5 in conference and 4-5 in their last nine before the tournament, but the committee remembered them blowing out Ohio State and Kentucky plus playing tough in close losses to Stanford and NC State back before Christmas and rewarded them for it.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15754 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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Posted: 12/30/22 5:41 pm ::: |
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Hey, if you've watched Indiana, they're NOT schlepps. And now, playing without Grace Berger isn't helping anything, but....their current rankings are of the past few weeks, not what 'will be'.
(Has anyone heard if Berger will be back or not?)
_________________ Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005 Posts: 4878 Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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Posted: 12/31/22 5:38 am ::: |
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Howee wrote: |
Hey, if you've watched Indiana, they're NOT schlepps. And now, playing without Grace Berger isn't helping anything, but....their current rankings are of the past few weeks, not what 'will be'.
(Has anyone heard if Berger will be back or not?) |
From Wednesday 12/28: “It certainly will be left up to Grace and how she feels. But every day, she’s doing a little bit more, which is really, really good,” Moren said. “Really good spirits. She’s moving along nicely right now.”
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1275
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Posted: 12/31/22 8:53 am ::: |
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Howee wrote: |
Hey, if you've watched Indiana, they're NOT schlepps. |
I agree, I've watched them. No surprise, they are better with Grace, but hopefully, she will return soon.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/31/22 2:17 pm ::: |
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I agree as well. I think they had been accelerated upwards too quickly and a little too high based on too thin a record at the time I questioned their ranking in November, but based on a two month record now I think they deserve to be highly rated.
And I wouldn't move them much if at all based on losing a close B10 game on the road without Berger. That kind of thing is going to happen over a season.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5424
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Posted: 12/31/22 11:25 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
PickledGinger wrote: |
Also, it's barely December. You really think that if someone goes 12-6 in conference play they're gonna be a 1 or 2 seed on their reputation from 3 months ago? |
That's basically what Indiana did last season to get a three seed. They went 11-5 in conference and 4-5 in their last nine before the tournament, but the committee remembered them blowing out Ohio State and Kentucky plus playing tough in close losses to Stanford and NC State back before Christmas and rewarded them for it. |
I've heard the committee talk about big wins and ignore big wins with no apparent consistency. Take LSU. They look to me like the 2nd best team in the SEC and that is a ticket to no worse than a 3 seed, no matter how bad their schedule has been. They have played 1 ranked team and won, but they only have 1 or 3 games against ranked teams in the entire regular season. I'd like to see the committee send a message this year after emphasizing competitive scheduling last season.
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ridor
Joined: 18 Oct 2005 Posts: 1055 Location: Frederick, Maryland
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Posted: 01/06/23 7:03 am ::: About Virginia |
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Coach Mox, in her first year, is steering the program back in the right direction. Coach Tina Thompson was terrible coach to begin with. So glad Carla got rid of her after having to deal with her antics.
Coach Mox managed to make the Cavaliers competitive, something that was lacking during the Thompson years. At 13-2, 2-2 - it is only a matter of time before Virginia picks up a couple of wins against the ranked teams. I think the team will finish 24-5 or 23-6 before the ACC Tournament. If they make a great stride in the ACC Tournament, they'll enter the NCAAT. If not, it is off to WNIT.
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021 Posts: 2864
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Posted: 02/09/23 10:28 pm ::: |
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NCAA Selection Committee's first official Top 16 reveal:
1. South Carolina
2. Indiana
3. Stanford
4. UConn
5. LSU
6. Utah
7. Iowa
8. Duke
9. Maryland
10. Notre Dame
11. Michigan
12. Texas
13. Virginia Tech
14. North Carolina
15. Villanova
16. Ohio State
_________________ RebKell's 2021-2022 NCAA Fantasy League Regular Season Champion 🏆
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005 Posts: 4878 Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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Posted: 02/10/23 7:22 am ::: |
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Go B1G!
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004 Posts: 7409 Location: Durham, NC
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Posted: 02/10/23 2:40 pm ::: |
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Yep, you bested the ACC 5-4. Of course, it's due to the near bottom of the ACC pulling off conference upsets and thus leading to a couple of ACC teams barely missing the top 16 cut. Top BIG teams only have to survive other top BIG teams beating each other up as the bottom BIG teams have little/no chance of pulling an upset.
So, it's the ongoing debate of what constitutes being a top conference? Is it having strong teams at the top only or having good teams in the bottom half who can beat a strong team on any given night? Meanwhile, congrats to both the BIG and the ACC this season!
_________________ Follow your passion and your life will be true down to your core.
~rAf
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 02/11/23 12:48 am ::: Re: About Virginia |
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ridor wrote: |
Coach Mox, in her first year, is steering the program back in the right direction. Coach Tina Thompson was terrible coach to begin with. So glad Carla got rid of her after having to deal with her antics.
Coach Mox managed to make the Cavaliers competitive, something that was lacking during the Thompson years. At 13-2, 2-2 - it is only a matter of time before Virginia picks up a couple of wins against the ranked teams. I think the team will finish 24-5 or 23-6 before the ACC Tournament. If they make a great stride in the ACC Tournament, they'll enter the NCAAT. If not, it is off to WNIT. |
5 weeks later Virginia looks set for the NIT if they can win 1 more regular season game. With home game vs NC St and Duke and road games at Clemson and Miami that is not a sure thing. But if they make it and have a good attitude I think they could make a nice run.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004 Posts: 7409 Location: Durham, NC
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Posted: 02/11/23 1:10 am ::: Re: About Virginia |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
ridor wrote: |
Coach Mox, in her first year, is steering the program back in the right direction. Coach Tina Thompson was terrible coach to begin with. So glad Carla got rid of her after having to deal with her antics.
Coach Mox managed to make the Cavaliers competitive, something that was lacking during the Thompson years. At 13-2, 2-2 - it is only a matter of time before Virginia picks up a couple of wins against the ranked teams. I think the team will finish 24-5 or 23-6 before the ACC Tournament. If they make a great stride in the ACC Tournament, they'll enter the NCAAT. If not, it is off to WNIT. |
5 weeks later Virginia looks set for the NIT if they can win 1 more regular season game. With home game vs NC St and Duke and road games at Clemson and Miami that is not a sure thing. But if they make it and have a good attitude I think they could make a nice run. |
It's a shame injury derailed the turnaround at UVA. They were clearly playing at a higher level this season.
_________________ Follow your passion and your life will be true down to your core.
~rAf
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