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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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 Posted: 06/19/22 5:24 am ::: |
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I saw this article saying that Wisconsin got a favorable Big Ten schedule. https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/2022/6/18/23172809/wisconsin-badgers-womens-basketball-big-ten-conference-schedule-released-favorable-draw
I doubt they are going to be in contention for the NCAA tournament so among those contenders who got the best draws and who got the hardest draws?
INDIANA
Home: Maryland, Nebraska, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Away: Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
Home/Away: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue
IOWA
Home: Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers
Away: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
Home/Away: Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin
MARYLAND
Home: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State
Away: Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Home/Away: Iowa, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Rutgers
MICHIGAN
Home: Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State
Away: Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin
Home/Away: Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Rutgers
MICHIGAN STATE
Home: Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Rutgers
Away: Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State
Home/Away: Maryland, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
NEBRASKA
Home: Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Away: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Rutgers
Home/Away: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Northwestern
NORTHWESTERN
Home: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota
Away: Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers
Home/Away: Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
OHIO STATE
Home: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue
Away: Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Home/Away: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern
PURDUE
Home: Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Away: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Rutgers
Home/Away: Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021
Posts: 2864
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| Posted: 06/19/22 10:01 am ::: |
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Interesting topic. Of course it's hard to say because some teams will inevitably disappoint or exceed preseason expectations, but that doesn't stop us from speculating!
In my opinion, the best six teams in the Big Ten will be the same six who finished at the top of the conference last year and made the NCAA tournament: Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and Iowa. One quick way to measure difficulty would be to see how many games everyone plays against those six teams, and whether those games are home or away.
Iowa: 8 games (3 home, 5 away)
Maryland, Michigan, and Ohio State, Nebraska: 8 games (4 home, 4 away)
Indiana: 8 games (5 home, 3 away)
Interestingly, all of these top-tier teams play exactly 8 games against others from that top tier. But Iowa only gets 3 home games while Indiana has 5. From this perspective, Iowa has the most difficult draw against the best teams, while Indiana got a favorable draw against the best teams.
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An inverse way of looking at it would be to see how many times everyone faces the worst teams. Let's just say the 6 worst teams will be the teams Durantula did not include among the contenders, plus Purdue (sorry Boilermakers), so: Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers, Minnesota, and Purdue.
Michigan, Nebraska, and Ohio State: 7 games (3 home, 4 away)
Maryland: 7 games (4 home, 3 away)
Indiana: 8 games (4 home, 4 away)
Iowa: 8 games (5 home, 3 away)
Northwestern: 9 games (4 home, 5 away)
Michigan State: 9 games (5 home, 4 away)
So among the 6 top-tier teams, Iowa should have the easiest time taking care of the bottom of the league, since they play 8 games against those teams with 5 being home. Indiana also gets 8 games against my predicted worst 6 teams. However, the "middle of the pack" teams (Northwestern and Michigan State) have it even easier against the worst group of times, getting to play them a total of 9 times.
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Accounting for both of these "methods," I'd say Indiana has the most favorable draw, since they get an additional game against the bottom of the league (relative to the other contenders) and they get to face more of their difficult opponents at home. Iowa's difficult away slate against their fellow contenders is balanced out by their additional game against the bottom of the league. In other words, they should have a slightly easier time defending their home court but the pressure will be on to win some big games on the road.
Overall, I'd say the conference did a good job balancing schedules among the six teams who should be at the top of the league.
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005
Posts: 4878
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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| Posted: 06/22/22 1:17 pm ::: |
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| Great analysis!
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
Posts: 2819
Location: Indiana
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| Posted: 06/22/22 5:26 pm ::: |
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| Yep, completely agree. I was calculating all that as well. Very well done and said!
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lynxmania
Joined: 18 Feb 2011
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Location: Minnesota
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undersized_post
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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| Posted: 06/22/22 6:13 pm ::: |
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| Its one thing to have a freshman play big minutes at one spot. Minnesota lost so many veterans that they will have to rely on numerous freshmen for big minutes, without the benefit of having that veteran presence to guide them just based off what they lost. It will be a tough year and maybe expectations are too high on their Freshman class.
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005
Posts: 4878
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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| Posted: 07/17/22 6:15 pm ::: |
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| Durantula wrote: |
| Its one thing to have a freshman play big minutes at one spot. Minnesota lost so many veterans that they will have to rely on numerous freshmen for big minutes, without the benefit of having that veteran presence to guide them just based off what they lost. It will be a tough year and maybe expectations are too high on their Freshman class. |
Unfortunately Minnesota lost Nia Holloway already to an ACL.
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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| Posted: 07/17/22 9:40 pm ::: |
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| mzonefan wrote: |
| Durantula wrote: |
| Its one thing to have a freshman play big minutes at one spot. Minnesota lost so many veterans that they will have to rely on numerous freshmen for big minutes, without the benefit of having that veteran presence to guide them just based off what they lost. It will be a tough year and maybe expectations are too high on their Freshman class. |
Unfortunately Minnesota lost Nia Holloway already to an ACL. |
Minnesota added Destinee Oberg a 6'3 post from Arkansas but I think she may have had injury history with only 39 games played in 3 years. if it wasn't injury maybe she just wasn't part of the main rotation. If Oberg has foul trouble they will become a small team really quickly.
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