RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

June 25

Las Vegas 7 @Minnesota 172

Las Vegas is the highest scoring team in the league at 91.2 PPG, more than 3 points better than any other team. They have won their games by an average of 11.7 PPG. But a look inside the numbers shows that these lofty number have been built against the worst teams in the league. In their 6 games against Indiana, New York and Los Angeles they have averaged 101 PPG and have outscored their opponents by 24 PPG. In their other 7 games they have averaged 82 points and won those games by a combined 4 points. Minnesota got off to a slow start but has won 6 of their last 9. Add in that the Aces have to play the Storm in 2 days so they could be looking forward. I like the Lynx plus the points. I also like the under enough to make it a play. Minnesota has only scored 90 points once this season. The Aces have only scored 90 twice in their 7 games against decent teams.

Last night was my best night in a few weeks. Both Indiana and New York were awful and the NY-Chicago under was never in serious jeopardy.

Last night 3-0
Season 36-35

[calbearman76]

June 26

@Dallas 6 Washington 167.5
@Atlanta 4 New York 169

Washington beat the best team in the league, Seattle, on Tuesday night. 2days later they lost to one of the worst teams, Los Angeles, as they appeared to run out of gas in the 4th quarter. Now they are asked to play a third road game less than 2 days later (this an afternoon game). The Mystics have had to travel more than 1000 miles between each game on the road trip. All this, and they are still without Hines-Allen and Cloud. Tina Charles has been outstanding but this might be too much to ask. Hopefully Dallas will have Sabally guard Charles. I will take the Wings and lay the points.

Atlanta was up 79-70 on Minnesota with nearly 9 minutes to go and then scored only 6 points the rest of the way to lose 87-85. New York started out 5-1 but have lost 7 of their last 9. The Liberty have played much better against bad teams and Atlanta without Tiffany Hayes is a bad team. I may play the Liberty later but for now I will pass.

Last night Minnesota beat Las Vegas outright but unfortunately (for me) the game went into overtime causing the game to go over.

Last night 1-1
Season 37-36

[calbearman76]

June 27

Chicago 4.5 @Connecticut 157.5
@Las Vegas 2.5 Seattle 170.5
@Phoenix 6.5 Los Angeles 156

The Connecticut game has already started. (I am not a morning person).

Las Vegas and Seattle are the clear top 2 teams in the WNBA. Both teams may have been looking ahead as they lost their previous games. This should be a fun game to watch. They opened up the season with back-to-back games and split double digit wins. That means this game will be the tiebreaker and could determine home advantage in the final. I lean towards the Aces and the over, but I will only make the over a play.

Diana Taurasi returns for Phoenix. The two teams split just over a week ago in LA. In a scheduling quirk this is the third straight game for the Mercury against the Sparks. (LA played two games in the interim.) I like Phoenix here. The line is a little high but LA has only lost one game by less than 10 points. I'll take Phoenix.

Yesterday Dallas was up the entire game. They were covering the 6 point spread less than 3 minutes into the game and maintained that cover for all but one minute in the third quarter when Washington twice cut the deficit to 5. Still the Mystics cut the lead to 7 with a minute to go and it took Areke making 4 FT in the final minute to secure the win.

Yesterday 1-0
Season 38-36

[calbearman76]

June 29

@Atlanta 3 New York 170.5
Connecticut 5 @Washington 156.5

New York beat Atlanta 101-78 three days ago, but the game was not as one sided as the score would indicate. With 1:30 to go in the 3rd it was a 4 point game. but the Liberty went on a 10-0 run spanning the 3rd and 4th quarters and the game snowballed. I expect Atlanta to bounce back today so I will take the Dream. The total is tough. The first game total was 179 so I looked at the over, but the game was put over in garbage time in the 4th. Based on that I will pass on the total.

Connecticut will have Jonquel Jones back. Washington may have Myisha Hines-Allen and Natasha Cloud back. My question is how will the travel back from EuroBasket affect Jones. I will pass.

Sunday Las Vegas and Seattle went over in overtime. I lost an OT total last week so these things balance out. DT had a big return for Phoenix in the Mercury's win. The two wins pushed me back into the black for the year.

Sunday 2-0
Season 40-36

[calbearman76]

June 30

Chicago 2 @Dallas 165.5
@Phoenix 3 Minnesota 165.5
Las Vegas 12 @Los Angeles 165

Chicago had won 7 games in a row before laying an egg against the Sun (without Jonquel Jones) Sunday. Dallas has played well going 6-3 after a slow start. Both teams are healthy. I like Dallas just enough to make it a play.

Phoenix got DT back last game and they beat LA. Taurasi was great but it was just 1 game. I do not believe this will last but it could stretch into this game. I will pass.

Kudos to Los Angeles for having a 6-8 record with so many injuries but don't be fooled. 6 of their losses were by double digits and their loss to Phoenix would have been the 7th if not for an 11-1 to end the game after the game was decided. Las Vegas is 6-0 over Indiana, New York and LA winning 5 by more than 20. They beat LA 97-69 when they still had both Ogwumikes. The only thing that gives me pause is that the Aces are coming off their biggest game of the season, beating the Storm in overtime, but I will take the Aces and lay the 12.

Yesterday Atlanta crept by New York 73-69, scoring the last 8 points. The end of the game was nerve wracking as Chennedy Carter (a 90% FT shooter) missed a FT with 19 seconds to go. But after a few misses by the Liberty, Christyn Williams was fouled with 2 seconds to go and made 1 of 2 for the cover.

Yesterday 1-0
Season 41-36

[calbearman76]

July 1

Connecticut 15 @Indiana 154.5

This is a game where motivation is everything. If the game started 20-0 Indiana, I would have no hesitation betting Connecticut. But the question is whether the Sun care about the final score. When these teams played earlier in Connecticut the Sun won 88-67. I have the slightest lean to the Sun and the over but I will just pass.

Sometimes you are just wrong. When I turned on the Dallas game they were down 36-13 early in the second. The Sky extended their lead to 44-14. Dallas actually made a run and got within 7 early in the fourth but Dallas was clearly the wrong side. On the other hand Las Vegas turned out just as I expected. The Aces went on a 21-2 run spanning the first and second quarters and the Sparks never got closer than 15 after that.

Last night 1-1
Season 42-37

[calbearman76]

July 2

Chicago 3 @Dallas 165.5
@Seattle 15 Atlanta 167
Las Vegas 14 @Los Angeles 165.5

Chicago ran out to a 30 point lead against Dallas early in the 2nd quarter and then coasted to a 10 point victory. I will take Dallas to get the split at home.

Seattle has lost 2 in a row. Last year when they lost 2 in a row they came back with a 13 point win against Indiana but today I would have to lay 15. I think they will lead by 15 at some point but I don't trust them to run through the finish line. I'll pass

Las Vegas was a 12 point favorite on Wednesday and won by 24. The oddsmakers have made it more expensive tp take the Aces but they have done that twice before this season. Early in the season they beat Indiana as an 11 point favorite 113-77 and 2 days later won 101-78 as a 13.5 point favorite. A few weeks later the Aces played the Liberty back to back and won 100-78 and 103-76. I will stick with the Aces and lay the inflated number. I will also take the over.

[myrtle]

I enjoy this thread and your comments. thanks for posting odds.

[huskiemaniac]

[RP]

Yes, thanks for getting this thread started and keeping it going!

Last week's update -- started badly as I went heavy live betting Seattle to beat Washington, but happened early to where I was able to end the week slightly up.



Bovada is great. I made all my bets there last season. The only reason I stopped is not that long into the NCAAW season they dropped my betting limit to just a couple of dollars. Yes, $2 limits. I switched over to Heritage, which has been a great experience as well, but doesn't offer the nearly-endless possible bets that Bovada does. My plan was to use both for the W season, but simply haven't gotten around to it yet as my degeneracy has engulfed me in crypto.

[huskiemaniac]

Thanks, RP.

The crypto thing is a whole other aspect that is currently beyond my comprehension.

Pure bs Bovada throttled you like that.

[calbearman76]

July 4

@Las Vegas 15.5 Atlanta 172.5
Seattle 12.5 @Los Angeles 160

Sorry for missing yesterday. I went to a baseball game in Oakland Friday night and the hotel internet was not working in the morning. Then I endured the 4th of July weekend traffic of Northern California which turned a 3 hour drive into a 5 hour drive home. On the plus side the Red Sox won in 10 innings to pay for the trip. And looking at yesterday's results I may have saved some money for being on the road.

Las Vegas disappointed me Friday by scoring under 80 points for the first time this season against a team not named the Sun, putting up only 66. I expect them to bounce back today. The line is a little high for me to take them today but I will take the over (I may also take a parlay of the Aces and over.)

I don't feel comfortable laying double-digits with the Storm, but they have done better with Noelle Quinn at the helm. I will pass.

Friday I went 1-2 as Dallas bounced back against Chicago but the Aces played uninspired against LA, going under by 43.5 points.

Friday 1-2
Season 43-39

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

July 5

Dallas 5 @New York 166.5

A rare Monday game. For some reason this game opened up at pick this morning well before I got up. I would have been on the Wings at the opening number but I guess I value sleep more. Now I will just look at the total. Earlier this season Dallas lost to New York 88-81 in a game that snuck over because the Wings chose to foul down the stretch and Arike hit two 3s in the final minute. More recently the Liberty have been going under in 5 of their last 6. The Wings had been 7-1-1 for the under before two over games with Chicago. Not a strong play but I will take the under tonight.

Yesterday Atlanta and Las Vegas flew over the total, scoring 60 points in the first quarter en route to a 118-95 final. Put another way, the Aces won 66-58 (124 total) against LA and 2 days later scored almost as many themselves, from a game that went under by 43.5 points to one that went over by 41.5.

Yesterday 1-0
Season 44-39

[calbearman76]

July 7

@Minnesota 4.5 Dallas 167.5
@Seattle 15 Los Angeles 159
@Las Vegas 9.5 Phoenix 172.5

Minnesota has been playing well of late, winning its last 4 since splitting two games at Dallas. The Wings have gone 3-3 since their split with the Lynx. I like Minnesota in this spot. The spread is a little concerning given that 5 of the Lynx' wins and 5 of the Wings' losses have been 6 points or less and hope that even if the game is close the Lynx will hit their FT late.

Seattle just beat LA in LA on Sunday and now they are playing in Seattle. This is the 7th time the Storm has been favored by more than 10 and they have only covered once. I can't lay this many with Seattle but I don't want LA. I may wind up playing Seattle in the first half or play the game at halftime but I will pass on a full game bet.

Las Vegas is the best team in the WNBA at running through the tape and as a result have won only 4 games by single digits (including their first meeting with Phoenix, 85-79. 11 of the Mercury's 16 games have been decided by less than 10 points. I may get myself to the under before game time but for now I will pass.

Monday was another blowout total where I was on the wrong side. The Liberty and Wings combined to hit 46% of their 3s and 56% of their 2s. That drops me to dead even (considering the vig) for the season.

Monday 0-1
Season 44-40

[calbearman76]

July 9

@Connecticut 14 Atlanta 159.5
New York 3.5 @Indiana 163
Seattle 7 @Phoenix 164.5
@Las Vegas 6.5 Minnesota 173.5

Today is all about how teams play off of an unexpected outcome. Connecticut is coming off a loss to Indiana. My gut tells me that the Sun should be ashamed of their last outing and ready to play with fire against the Nightmares (without either Hayes or Carter, their two most gifted players.) Unfortunately the numbers don't support this. The Sun are only 2-3 coming off of losses this season. No pick

New York has shown throughout the year that they are able to win the games they can. This is another one. Nothing about the Fever's win last Saturday makes me believe they ghave somehow turned the corner. I will take the Liberty.

[calbearman76]

Phoenix is coming off their biggest win of the season against Las Vegas, nearly blowing the game in the fourth quarter before running away in the overtime. Now they play a home and home series with Seattle which will determine whether they will be battling for a first round bye or just trying to make the playoffs after the Olympic break. Before they beat LV they had lost their last 5 against the top 4 teams. Seattle has won 4 of its last 6 straight up but is 0-6 against the spread. They need to find their form and this seems like a good time to do it. I will make a small play on the Storm to get up for this game against one of their rivals.

Liz Cambage has talked about how she is more comfortable playing against centers that are closer to her size but this year she has been owned by Griner Fowles and Jonquel Jones in 4 of 5 games. She has allowed 26 PPG while only scoring 18 PPG and the Aces are only 1-4 in those games. On the other hand LV has yet to lose 2 in a row this season and is 3-0-1 ATS. This seems like a good game to watch but no play.

Minnesota snuck by Dallas by 6, hitting their 3-4 FT in the last 25 seconds to secure the cover. Seems like I had the game well scouted. I also mentioned that I liked Seattle in the first half and they covered, but I don't count haftimes for my record. I also had a preference (not a play) for the Las Vegas game under and it was in regulation. The OT put the game over.

Wednesday 1-0
Season 45-40

[calbearman76]

July 10

@Chicago 9 Washington 167.5

Chicago had won 7 in a row but they hit a skid and lost 2 of 3 just before getting an 8 day break. Washington loses Leilani Mitchell but gets back Natasha Cloud.. It isn't much to hang my hat on but I'll take the under based on Natasha Cloud's defense.

[huskiemaniac]

[calbearman76]

OT total losses are always tough, but when Washington does just what you want and goes for a 3 to win and the shot is an air ball that lands right in Charles hands who has just enough time for a put back - yeah that's kind of brutal.

[calbearman76]

July 11

Las Vegas 3 @Dallas 172
Connecticut 8 @New York 157
@Atlanta 5.5 Indiana 165
@Seattle 8 Phoenix 162.5
Minnesota 7.5 Los Angeles 155.5

I will go down swinging by picking every side and total today. Las Vegas will be without Cambage again but they got to the Finals without her last season. I have a lean to the over but today I will make that a play.

[calbearman76]

Game 2

Connecticut and New York both lost to Indiana in the past week. The Sun bounced back to beat Atlanta. The Liberty have struggled against top teams this season including a 21 point loss to the Sun earlier this season. The Liberty have also had travel problems. I'll take the Sun. I will also take the under. Connecticut has only allowed 74+ points once in their last 6 games.

[calbearman76]

Indiana has a 2 game winning streak for the first time since 2019. Atlanta has lost 5 of 6 since the injury to Tiffany Hayes. In their first game Atlanta won 83-79. I like the Fever (just saying that sounds funny) and I will also take the under.

Phoenix beat Seattle on Friday 85-77 at home. Today they are in Everett, Washington. The Storm lost because they shot poorly, only 38% FG including 30% from 3, both well below their season averages of 46% and 39% respectively. I generally like betting on a favorite when they lose to the same team in their last game. I like Seattle. I will also take the over because my theory of the game is better shooting from Seattle, but only because I am playing all totals today.

Minnesota is playing as well as anyone, going 11-3 after a 0-4 start. They have won their last six, but other than a 31 point blowout vs. Phoenix, there other 5 have been by 2,1,6,6 and 10. Los Angeles has lost 5 in a row, all 5 by at least 8 points. They haven't scored 80 points in any of those games. I will take the Lynx and under but neither one is a strong play.

Friday 0-2
Saturday 0-1
Season 45-43