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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/11/21 2:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 11

Seattle 10 @Atlanta 170
@Phoenix 2 Dallas 165

Two replays of games from earlier this week. Atlanta fell apart in the fourth quarter Wednesday but I will stick with them and take the 10 tonight. Dallas looked like the better team on Tuesday. I'm not comfortable calling for a sweep so I will pass. The way I have been going lately I think maybe I should just take whatever RP takes, but what is the fun in that.

Last night 1-1
Season 26-24


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/12/21 11:42 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 12

Chicago 10 @Indiana 159.5
@Minnesota 9 Los Angeles 157.5

Chicago finally got Candace Parker back and they finally got another win. Not that the two were related. Parker went 1-9 with 3 points, 5 rebounds and 4 turnovers. But Indiana is just that bad. The Fever just completed a 5 game road trip where they lost every game by an average of 25 points. The closest game was 15 points. Now they are back home. Does it make a difference? I'll say "no." I will take Chicago and the over.

Minnesota and LA both lost their last game to Washington, the Lynx by 4, the Sparks by 18. LA looked very bad without the Ogwumikes. I will take the Lynx.

Clearly I am in a slump. Last night was another loser, 2-5 for the week. This is a time to cut back on amounts, which fortunately I had already done. But I have to hope things turn around

Last night 0-1
Season 26-25


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/12/21 11:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Today is the day you break out of your slump. Keeping with the teasers, Chicago -6 and Minnesota -2.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/12/21 2:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So Chicago and Indiana score 105 points in the first half and I still have tp sweat out the over as the teams combine for only 57 in the second half. And I watch as your teaser goes down because Indiana, down 4 with 10 seconds to go, doesn't foul.


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/12/21 2:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
So Chicago and Indiana score 105 points in the first half and I still have tp sweat out the over as the teams combine for only 57 in the second half. And I watch as your teaser goes down because Indiana, down 4 with 10 seconds to go, doesn't foul.


The Fever are so bad they can't even do that correctly.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/13/21 10:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 13

Seattle 5 @Connecticut 159.5
Washington 3.5 @Atlanta 166
@Phoenix 4.5 New York 163
@Las Vegas 8 Dallas 170

Connecticut and Seattle have been the two best teams in the WNBA this year. As luck would have it they only play twice this year. In their first game Seattle pulled out a 3 point win at home, 90-87. Now they play for the last time (until the playoffs) and the Storm are a 5 point favorite on the road. The difference is no Jonquel Jones. I'm not sure what her absence will mean. I like the over but until I see how the Sun play without her I will pass.

Atlanta started out with two losses, then won four and now have lost four more, their last 3 by double digits. The Mystics have covered five straight, including the last four over the total. I like Atlanta to break their losing streak and I also like the over. Neither is a strong play, particularly because I have been consistently wrong about the Mystics.

Phoenix lost their last 2 games at home to Dallas. The team has looked sluggish and despite having Griner they have been outrebounded their last three games. The Mercury have won only 1 game by more than 5 points all season. New York has lost their last three after starting the season 5-1. But the Liberty haven't plated in 8 days. I expect the Liberty to regroup here and at least keep the game close. New York +5.

Dallas has won its last 3 and seems to have come together as a team with Sabally and Gray. But this is their 5 game in a row on the road and they can be forgiven if they let down a bit. Las Vegas has been off for 8 days and should be fresh. I like the Aces to grind down the Wings as Cambage and Wilson prove to be too much. Take LV.

Yesterday was nerve-wracking. Chicago scored 56 points in the first half but only 27 in the second. In doing so they didn't cover and barely secured the over. Then Minnesota seemed to be doing the same thing. They led 49-35 at the half but were outscored 22-8 in the third. Fortunately the Lynx righted the ship and went on to a 23-7 fourth quarter win to cover.

Yesterday 2-1
Season 28-26

UPDATE: With Sabrina Ionescu out today I will pass on the Phoenix-NY game. The line is up to 6.5. Also the Connecticut total has dropped to 156.5. DeWanna Bonner is listed as questionable. If she does not play Seattle looks good, but no play.




Last edited by calbearman76 on 06/13/21 1:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/13/21 12:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

At risk of giving away this week's profits, I like Seattle and Washington too much to not make these plays.

Seattle -5.5
Washington -3.5
Seattle-Washington ML parlay


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/13/21 5:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There I was with my finger on the trigger ready to hedge the parlay while the Mystics were up double digits and inexplicably did not do it. Short of a live bet opportunity on the Aces or Mercury, that is probably it for me this week.



calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/13/21 7:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:
There I was with my finger on the trigger ready to hedge the parlay while the Mystics were up double digits and inexplicably did not do it. Short of a live bet opportunity on the Aces or Mercury, that is probably it for me this week.



I have never been a fan of hedging, per se. I will make in game wagers when I see something I like, but other than getting overexposed by doubling up on a wager I don't really think about it in terms of what I have previously bet on a game. Having said that I rarely make parlays (except side and total where I see a correlation) so I don't often have hedging possibilities.

I do know people who will bet games specifically for the purpose of middling at halftime (or in play) but if I have a strong feeling on a first half I prefer to just make that bet directly.


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/14/21 6:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I only look for hedges on parlays where we will know the outcome of one bet before the other. In this case it would have changed the odds to risk $0 to win $500 rather than risk $500 to win $700, but I got greedy and waited too long, and the Mystics lead turned very quickly into a two-point deficit at the half, and a hedge no longer made sense.


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/15/21 2:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Minnesota -3.5. Let's start this week the right way.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/15/21 4:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 15

Seattle 15 @Indiana 166
@Minnesota 3.5 Chicago 158.5
@Las Vegas 13.5 New York 172

Seattle is better than Indiana. Are they 15 points better on the road? Does Noelle Quinn care? I don't know. Pass. I may look at the under because I suspect this will be a low scoring fourth quarter but I suspect I will wait for the second half to make a play.

Minnesota won't have Achonwa or Powers for awhile but I don't think this hurts them in the short run. Chicago has had Candace Parker back for a few games now but the team still looks to be missing something. I like Minnesota which puts me on the same side as RP. Hope that isn't a jinx. As for the total i have no clue. Chicago played a 105 point 1st half followed by a 57 point 2nd half in their last game. Minnesota was similar but not to the same degree (84 vs. 60). Pass

Las Vegas is better than New York. The Aces just beat the Liberty 94-82 in New York. This game looks very similar which leaves me without a play on this game.

Sunday once again was a loser. Washington started well but finished poorly, even if the game flew over the total. Las Vegas had a chance to cover. The Aces took a 10 point lead with just over a minute to go but Satou Sabally hit a 3 pointer in the final minute. The Aces then committed a turnover and after a missed shot with more than 15 seconds to go the Wings chose not to foul, so the Aces won by only 7 as an 8 point favorite.

Sunday 1-2
Season 29-28


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/16/21 4:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 16

Phoenix 5 @Los Angeles 153.5

Phoenix has lost its last 3 games; LA has lost its last 2. These two teams have the worst defensive rebounding percentage (64.6 for LA, 66 for Phoenix). LA is one of two teams with a FG% below 40%, Phoenix is one of two teams with a 3 pt. FG% below 30%. LA is already without the Ogwumikes but today they are also without Te'a Cooper, lost to suspension for coming off the bench. Cooper has been one of the top 2 scorers for LA in each game since Nneka got injured. So you have a struggling offense without another one of their leading scorers out. As for Phoenix Brittney Griner has averaged 23 points per game over her last 7 games since Taurasi was injured. The Mercury are 4-1 on the road this season and only 1-5 at home. I like Phoenix laying the points. As for the total I wasn't expecting to play this, but the oddsmakers put up the lowest total of the season. There are many reasons to like the under but I think the line is too low. I'll go over 153.5.

Last night after closing within 2 in the second quarter the Lynx committed 4 turnovers on consecutive possessions. Overall the Lynx committed 20 turnovers and fell behind by as much as 27 points in the 4th before getting some face-saving points to lose by only 16.

Last night 0-1
Season 29-29


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4834
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/17/21 3:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

June 17

Seattle 16 @Indiana 164
Atlanta 1 @Washington 164.5
@Chicago 4.5 Connecticut 155.5
@Dallas 4 Minnesota 167
@Las Vegas 15.5 New York 172.5

Five games today, including two replays from Tuesday. Seattle can once again name their score. Tuesday they chose a 17 point win to get the cover. I'll pass.

Atlanta is a 1 point favorite today because Tina Charles will be at the Tribeca Film Festival presenting her short film, Game Changer. This may be good for morale on the Mystics long-term, but I think it will cost them a win tonight. I'll take Atlanta.

Two weeks ago Connecticut would have been about an 8 point favorite in this matchup. But with Jonquel Jones overseas and Chicago having just played their best game of the season on Tuesday the Sky are favored. Add in Curt Miller being away from the team and I will play Chicago. The total opened as high as 159.5 but has dropped 4 points. I'm tempted to play the over if it drops further but for now I will pass.

Dallas has quietly become one of the better teams in the league. They are 4-2 in their last 6 and 6-0 ATS. I will take the Wings to extend their streak.

The final game is Las Vegas - New York. The Liberty actually led by 11 in the 2nd quarter but they still lost by 22. I will pass for now but I may find way to the over.

Last night the Mercury once again disappointed. The game was high scoring from the start. Phoenix came within 2 with 4 minutes to go but were unable to make a FG in the last 4 minutes.

Last night 1-1
Season 30-30


RP



Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 1289



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PostPosted: 06/17/21 4:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Looks like we're on the same side again. I took Chicago -4.5 and Atlanta ML.


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