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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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adamj95
Joined: 09 May 2014
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Location: East Grand Forks, MN
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 Posted: 05/12/21 10:00 am ::: |
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| I still don’t see how the Storm are this big of favorites after losing their best defenders in Clark and Howard. Storm were very sub par before getting Howard so i’m not sure I see them being the team to beat 🤷🏼♀️
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 05/12/21 10:05 am ::: |
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| I'll be surprised if the Sun and Sparks are better than the Mystics and Sky
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snlMINAJ
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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| Posted: 05/12/21 3:34 pm ::: |
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| yeah, sun and sparks seem high
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 05/12/21 4:34 pm ::: |
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These ratings are based on last season's results and do not take into account the roster changes from last season. For a data based system this is understandable but flawed.
Having said that I am a big believer in ELO prediction models. As the season goes on I will be following the ratings.
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PickledGinger
Joined: 04 Oct 2013
Posts: 1362
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| Posted: 05/12/21 4:57 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| These ratings are based on last season's results and do not take into account the roster changes from last season. |
How do they work then? Roster changes are the most major factor to projecting success. It seems as if you're basing your projections on last year's data, you would end up with basically the same result.
Also, no way in hell Connecticut wins 18 games.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 05/12/21 5:40 pm ::: |
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| PickledGinger wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
| These ratings are based on last season's results and do not take into account the roster changes from last season. |
How do they work then? Roster changes are the most major factor to projecting success. It seems as if you're basing your projections on last year's data, you would end up with basically the same result.
Also, no way in hell Connecticut wins 18 games. |
An ELO system like this is helpful to projecting the results of future games, but since there is no objective data the model needs a starting point. This system takes the ending rating from 2020 and reverts to the mean by 50%. As it relates to Connecticut, they made the semis and took Las Vegas to 5 games. This increased their season ending rating so they start 2021 at a high point. (This system seems to overweight playoff games which may make sense for predicting subsequent playoff games but may also skew the subsequent year starting rating.)
The bias in using last year as a starting point will work itself out through the first month of the season.
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5thmantheme
Joined: 11 Apr 2016
Posts: 540
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| Posted: 05/13/21 9:10 pm ::: |
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Storm lose Clark and Howard.
Sky gain DD and Parker.
ELO says the second doesn't even matter a smidge.
hmm
Merc
Sky
Sun
Aces -- minor chemistry problems early, soon ironed out
Lynx -- best team 2 thru 5
Storm -- lots of new parts
Mystics -- get your 50/40/90 shooters here, get 'em cheap
Sparks -- early chemistry probs with only 3 returnees
Dream -- save Hayes minutes for a run at playoffs
Wings
Fever -- still trying for lotto, but if McCowan and Cox get fully on the same page, llok out
Libs -- much improved, Claredon + Healthy Ion + Laney + Howard + Stokes will scare everybody for at least a little while any game.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 05/13/21 9:42 pm ::: |
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| I think you're underrating the Aces potential chemistry problems. With McCoughtry out they only have one starter returning from last year's finals squad.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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| Posted: 05/13/21 11:35 pm ::: |
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If someone forced me to do a straight up list instead of groupings
1. Aces I don't think chemistry will be that hard, Plum and Cambage already played with this team in 19, C. Gray is a better fit than D-Rob, R. Williams is designed for the 6 woman instant offense role she will be playing. The Aces probably still have the best 1-7 talent, Hamby and J. Young both keep improving. Barring injury to one of their big 3 they will be at the top and the IMO should be competing for a championship.
2. Sky Chicago is poised to go to the next level. Parker won't need to play like and MVP for the Sky to take a big step forward, what she will bring in experience, leadership and talent in the front court is what the Sky have been missing. Best PG in the game, Copper and Deshields will be a great 2/3 combo. Ndour had her best season in Chicago and will probably be closer to that than her Dallas days. Quigley, Stevens, Dolson and Hebard give you decent depth behind the bigger pieces.
3. Mystics I get burnt every year under valuing the Mystics. Great coach. EDD when she gets back is still one of the best players in the World. You are basically adding EDD. Cloud and Charles to a team from last year that was pretty good. Atkins keeps getting better MHA will be the best bench post in the league. Mitchell is as solid a back up PG as the league has and Weiss might have just found a great situation for herself. If Meesseman does pop in post Olympics look out
4. Lynx Collier is rounding into an MVP candidate level talent. McBride, Powers and Achonwa clearly joined the team to be part of a contender and I think will be a great fit around Collier. Dantas, Carelton, Dangerfield and Banham are coming back and all proved they have W level game. Fowles while not dominant is still a force and Shepard is like getting a high first round pick that already has some experience with the team.
5. The Mercury Probably the second best talent-wise 1-7 behind the Aces. There is no reason they shouldn't be in the Finals but the last few seasons they have seemed poise to contend but still land middle of the pack. Griner may have her best season ever but I am not ready to put them in top 4 but they will still be the team no one wants to play in the playoffs.
6. The Storm Stewart, Bird and Loyd have been the core of this team for a few years now and they have tow ships in that time. I have them falling because Clark and Howard and Whitcomb to a lesser extent were also very important pieces to those ships. Canada has grown into a strong back up PG and decent starting level PG when called upon to do so.The Storm also have some young player who seem poised to step up in Magbegor and Russell, some interesting unknowns in KLS and MHH and some vets in Prince and Talbot that can alway provide good bench support
7. LA This team has to replace two huge pieces in Parker and Gray. N. Ogwumike is still a top 10 player, Wheeler and Toliver are very solid replacements in the back-court. Sykes seems poised to take off, maybe even a possible all-star level player. Outside of Nneka there are still some legit question about how good the rest of the post rotation is Chiney Ogwumike and Zahui B have had some great games and decent careers but have yet to prove that they are starting quality posts on a contender in 2021. Adding Vadeeva should take them to the next level. Cooper and Walker are some nice young pieces but not nice enough for mw to put them higher than Lowe playoff level team for now.
8 Liberty (Ok slight homerism here but) Ionescu will be a star in this league sooner rather than later it will be in a different way but she will leave a mark similar to Ogunbowale and Carter in their first season. Howard when she gets here and revved up will be a top 10 player in the league and will the Liberty's new Tina Charles level player the good new is unlike Charles Howard will be playing with Ionescu and Laney to take some of the pressure off on the offensive end. If the big 3 stay healthy and click the rest of the Liberty will fill their roles behind them nicely Lines will have a breakout season, Whitcomb will hit those unexpected daggers when called upon Stokes willl rebound and defend and Allen will offer good support to Laney and Howard when they go to the bench.
9. The Dream Atl in the second half of the season is going to be a team to look out for. If/when their guards click they are going to frustrate other teams on a nightly basis. Ch. Parker is poised to be an all-star and Hawkins is going to be this season Laney taking advantage of a bigger opportunity on a new team to have a breakout season. If Hayes can replicate her over-seas performance and provide leadership to the guard core Atl will be a threat every night.
10. The Sun If J. Jones ends up playing on an Olympic team she won't have the impact the Sun will need to stay relevant. A, Thomas is a huge loss for the Sun on both ends and as much as I like Bonner she just isn't enough to single handedly carry her team. Last years squad barely made the playoffs before going on a great run. B. Jones will continue to grow, but I worry the January and J. Thomas are on the decline. K. Charles and Carrington will beed to have big season for the Sun to get near the playoffs.
11. The Wings (I really like the Wings and don't want to annoy the Wings fans but) If Sabally misses a big chunk of time with the Olympics the Wings simply won't have the fire power to improve their standing. Ogunbowale will still be in the top scorer category, and Gray, Thorton and Harris are great role player but the Wings without a huge dose of Sabally just don't have the game upfront yet, rely on Collier, Kuier when she arrives, Alarie and an adequate but shouldn't starting Harrison is not enough yet to stop most team. Next year with Sabally full-time, growth of the young player and one more lottery pick (Howard, Smith, Cunnane, or Austin) and Dallas will jump to the top 4 but not yet.
12. Indy like Dallas one more year and lottery pick away. Ironically Indy will be better than last year but so will everybody else. For them to do better than the bottom three spots K. Mitchell or McCowan will have to fulfill their potential and become all-star level players. The Vets they Brough in in D-Rob, Lavender and Breland will keep them steady but none scream I can take Indy to the next level. They don't have the higher potential that you see in Atl with Ch. Parker, Hayes and After or in NY With Howard, Ionescu and Laney. If Vivians and Cox step up along with Mitchell and McCowan then maybe Indy can make some noise but there just isn't enough evidence make any grand proclamations for Indy's improvement yet.
PS I get as many things wrong as right so don't be too annoyed if I gave your team a bad prediction and a team you don't like or have faith in a good one.
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5thmantheme
Joined: 11 Apr 2016
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| Posted: 05/14/21 6:00 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
I think you're underrating the Aces potential chemistry problems.
With McCoughtry out they only have one starter returning from last year's finals squad. |
Probably. But I'm optimistic anyway. They can just about pick up where they left off.
If you take the 2019 line-up top 7, then sub in Gray for McBride, and Bebe for TYoung, it's quite tasty.
With how much better 2020 looked with DRob running the point, Gray should have an even better impact.
The odd defense of shutting down the 3, will cover any lingering Plum recovery, or Slocum rookie stuff.
Heck, they can try Hamby at the 3 for real this year, some of the time.
Angel = damn. Life ain't fair.
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