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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 03/29/21 8:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
Does this mean the Spanish Influenza just mutated itself into a far less deadly pathogen?


Why the 1918 Flu Pandemic Never Really Ended
Quote:

What’s even more remarkable about the 1918 flu, say infectious disease experts, is that it never really went away. After infecting an estimated 500 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919 (a third of the global population), the H1N1 strain that caused the Spanish flu receded into the background and stuck around as the regular seasonal flu.

But every so often, direct descendants of the 1918 flu combined with bird flu or swine flu to create powerful new pandemic strains, which is exactly what happened in 1957, 1968 and 2009. Those later flu outbreaks, all created in part by the 1918 virus, claimed millions of additional lives, earning the 1918 flu the odious title of “the mother of all pandemics.”



SARS-CoV-2 may not end up as a tamer version. A less harmful variant doesn't have much advantage unless it stayed in the body longer or is much more contagious, since this virus affects people differently. This serious variant transmits very well through asymptomatic infectees, low-symptomatic infectees and pre-symptomatic infectees. I think the normal scenario to end up with a less severe variant is when people of all stripes are affected relatively the same - the more severe version(s) puts people out of commission early so they stay home and don't cause as much spread of that variant, versus the lesser versions that people power through and continue to go about their normal daily life and spread that variant widely.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 03/31/21 3:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thank you, tfan....interesting premise, that it can/does live on. Scary, too.



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 04/07/21 7:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This article actually seems to talk more about the virus being rampant than new super strains.

‘BIOLOGICAL FUKUSHIMA’ Brazil Covid plague ‘spawning super-mutations every week that could destroy world’s fight against pandemic


Quote:
BRAZIL'S brutal Covid-19 plague has been branded a "biological Fukushima" by worried scientists after daily deaths surged past the 4,000 mark.

Hospitals are now at breaking point with people dropping dead as they await treatment amid the rise of super-mutant strains which "threaten" the global fight against the virus.


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 04/09/21 1:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Rise of coronavirus variants will define the next phase of the pandemic in the U.S.

Quote:
"My feeling is if you went in a boxing ring with all the variants, the U.K. variant is going to win in terms of transmissibility," said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6886
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 04/09/21 2:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Rise of coronavirus variants will define the next phase of the pandemic in the U.S.

Quote:
"My feeling is if you went in a boxing ring with all the variants, the U.K. variant is going to win in terms of transmissibility," said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco.


Don't know what this particular "expert" means, but the very next paragraph in the article says:

Quote:
That is good news in at least one respect, because studies have shown that vaccines should work on the variant first identified in the United Kingdom. Ho and others said the U.K. variant is most susceptible to the immune response produced by vaccines . . . .


In the UK, the source of the supposedly scary UK variant, both cases and deaths have plunged during the vaccine campaign (or maybe for other reasons, no "expert" really knows).



Luuuc
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Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: 04/09/21 7:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It's a real mystery.
Sure, they have pretty much now attained a herd immunity level of (vaccinations + prior infections) in the UK, but who's to say whether that has had anything to do with their plummeting infection & death rates.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 04/09/21 7:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
tfan wrote:
Rise of coronavirus variants will define the next phase of the pandemic in the U.S.

Quote:
"My feeling is if you went in a boxing ring with all the variants, the U.K. variant is going to win in terms of transmissibility," said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco.


Don't know what this particular "expert" means, but the very next paragraph in the article says:

Quote:
That is good news in at least one respect, because studies have shown that vaccines should work on the variant first identified in the United Kingdom. Ho and others said the U.K. variant is most susceptible to the immune response produced by vaccines . . . .




I read it as the boxing match is with regard to variants fighting about their transmissibility from person to person. Which one transmits from one person to another the easiest (best) - goes out of a nose or mouth and flies through the air and takes hold in sufficient quantity in the nose/mouth/eye/throat/lungs of another person. As distinct from which one is best at fighting through the current vaccines once they have made it into a new person. So the UK variant would be best at getting into people's bodies and worst at fighting antibodies.


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