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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 9543



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 8:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
Does this mean the Spanish Influenza just mutated itself into a far less deadly pathogen?


Why the 1918 Flu Pandemic Never Really Ended
Quote:

What’s even more remarkable about the 1918 flu, say infectious disease experts, is that it never really went away. After infecting an estimated 500 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919 (a third of the global population), the H1N1 strain that caused the Spanish flu receded into the background and stuck around as the regular seasonal flu.

But every so often, direct descendants of the 1918 flu combined with bird flu or swine flu to create powerful new pandemic strains, which is exactly what happened in 1957, 1968 and 2009. Those later flu outbreaks, all created in part by the 1918 virus, claimed millions of additional lives, earning the 1918 flu the odious title of “the mother of all pandemics.”



SARS-CoV-2 may not end up as a tamer version. A less harmful variant doesn't have much advantage unless it stayed in the body longer or is much more contagious, since this virus affects people differently. This serious variant transmits very well through asymptomatic infectees, low-symptomatic infectees and pre-symptomatic infectees. I think the normal scenario to end up with a less severe variant is when people of all stripes are affected relatively the same - the more severe version(s) puts people out of commission early so they stay home and don't cause as much spread of that variant, versus the lesser versions that people power through and continue to go about their normal daily life and spread that variant widely.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15691
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 03/31/21 3:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thank you, tfan....interesting premise, that it can/does live on. Scary, too.



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 04/07/21 7:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This article actually seems to talk more about the virus being rampant than new super strains.

‘BIOLOGICAL FUKUSHIMA’ Brazil Covid plague ‘spawning super-mutations every week that could destroy world’s fight against pandemic


Quote:
BRAZIL'S brutal Covid-19 plague has been branded a "biological Fukushima" by worried scientists after daily deaths surged past the 4,000 mark.

Hospitals are now at breaking point with people dropping dead as they await treatment amid the rise of super-mutant strains which "threaten" the global fight against the virus.


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 04/09/21 1:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Rise of coronavirus variants will define the next phase of the pandemic in the U.S.

Quote:
"My feeling is if you went in a boxing ring with all the variants, the U.K. variant is going to win in terms of transmissibility," said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8151
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 04/09/21 2:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Rise of coronavirus variants will define the next phase of the pandemic in the U.S.

Quote:
"My feeling is if you went in a boxing ring with all the variants, the U.K. variant is going to win in terms of transmissibility," said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco.


Don't know what this particular "expert" means, but the very next paragraph in the article says:

Quote:
That is good news in at least one respect, because studies have shown that vaccines should work on the variant first identified in the United Kingdom. Ho and others said the U.K. variant is most susceptible to the immune response produced by vaccines . . . .


In the UK, the source of the supposedly scary UK variant, both cases and deaths have plunged during the vaccine campaign (or maybe for other reasons, no "expert" really knows).



Luuuc
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Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: 04/09/21 7:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It's a real mystery.
Sure, they have pretty much now attained a herd immunity level of (vaccinations + prior infections) in the UK, but who's to say whether that has had anything to do with their plummeting infection & death rates.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 04/09/21 7:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
tfan wrote:
Rise of coronavirus variants will define the next phase of the pandemic in the U.S.

Quote:
"My feeling is if you went in a boxing ring with all the variants, the U.K. variant is going to win in terms of transmissibility," said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco.


Don't know what this particular "expert" means, but the very next paragraph in the article says:

Quote:
That is good news in at least one respect, because studies have shown that vaccines should work on the variant first identified in the United Kingdom. Ho and others said the U.K. variant is most susceptible to the immune response produced by vaccines . . . .




I read it as the boxing match is with regard to variants fighting about their transmissibility from person to person. Which one transmits from one person to another the easiest (best) - goes out of a nose or mouth and flies through the air and takes hold in sufficient quantity in the nose/mouth/eye/throat/lungs of another person. As distinct from which one is best at fighting through the current vaccines once they have made it into a new person. So the UK variant would be best at getting into people's bodies and worst at fighting antibodies.


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 9543



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PostPosted: 09/04/21 8:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There is a new variant - mu - that has mutated in a way that they think will make it difficult for antibodies to attack it. Antibodies from either a vaccine, having previously contracted it, or the man-made versions.

Mu Covid Variant: Los Angeles Officials Say First Cases Of New Strain Have Arrived

But before we get too disheartened:

Quote:
Dr. Anthony Fauci on Thursday said U.S. public health officials are “keeping a very close eye” on a new variant of Covid-19 that was first detected in Colombia.


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 09/07/21 7:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I have to wonder if we are going to see a mutation that has a very high fatality rate, say 25%, and "infectious disease specialists" will just monitor it closely as it travels between countries and throughout countries.

Quote:
Health officials believe mu is even more transmissible that the delta variant and has the potential to resist vaccines.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-mu-covid-variant-now-found-in-49-u-s-states/ar-AAO9Uf6


jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 21045



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PostPosted: 09/07/21 9:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I have to wonder if we are going to see a mutation that has a very high fatality rate, say 25%, and "infectious disease specialists" will just monitor it closely as it travels between countries and throughout countries.


You give good burn.



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FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 09/07/21 12:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Every time the US has tried to limit travel, US citizens have refused to obey. Fauci and the CDC said to stay home this weekend, and travel increased 3-fold over last year, despite having 4 times the number of COVID cases now. People were told not to travel during the last holiday season, did it anyway, and produced a huge surge resulting in a quarter of a million deaths.

Closing the borders is even more problematic. We've tried that to limit drug trafficking and illegal immigrants and have failed. We are in no way self-sufficient enough to halt imports of everything from computers to oil to food to pharmaceuticals and medical supplies nor will our economy survive a complete stoppage of our exports.

The long game is to get everyone on this planet vaccinated against the currently circulating COVID variants, and eliminate the pool of unvaccinated people that serve as incubators for new variants. Most of these new variants arose pre-vaccine release or more recently in places where the vaccination rate is 30% or less. Vaccinating people will cut down significantly (but not completely eliminate) the opportunities for the virus to mutate. We need to be more proactive about distributing vaccines. Our wasted doses could have vaccinated half the Caribbean this year, where vaccination rates are mostly <20%.


jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 21045



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PostPosted: 09/07/21 3:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So Fro. Hmm. A news anchor last night was leading into a report on COVID and at some point he uttered something like, “And it happened anyway.”

And I hit pause and sort of exploded on the sofa and to mrs jammer, “THAT’s THE CATCH PHRASE OF THE PANDEMIC GOD DAMMIT!”

lol. Point is… well… you know what the point is. It all happened anyway. It’s all going to happen anyway. Whatever it is, it’s going to happen anyway.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
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