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Silky Johnson
Joined: 29 Sep 2014
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 Posted: 03/13/21 6:38 pm ::: |
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| MVP's alma mater just came down with some serious #LemonBooty, enabling North Carolina A&T to complete the comeback, and win the MEAC.
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undersized_post
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Marquette Fan
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undersized_post
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/21 1:16 am ::: |
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Final Projection
Seven teams have at least a slight chance of being a number 1 seed. Stanford and Connecticut appear to be locks. I will go with Texas A&M and North Carolina St as the other 2, but Maryland, South Carolina and Baylor must be considered. The other 3 will be 2 seeds and I believe Louisville will get the nod. Georgia and UCLA look like the top 3 seeds. Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana and Tennessee look like the next 4 teams which means 2 will be three seeds and two will be 4 seeds. The other 4 seeds will perhaps say more about the Committee than the teams themselves. Gonzaga, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri St, Rutgers and West Virginia could all make a case.
My projection
1 Stanford
2 Louisville
3 Georgia
4 West Virginia
1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 Tennessee
4 Indiana
1 Texas A&M
2 Maryland
3 UCLA
4 Missouri St
1 North Carolina St
2 South Carolina
3 Arizona
4 Arkansas
Next: the bottom 16
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/21 2:37 am ::: |
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The automatic qualifiers.
There are 21 automatic qualifiers that would not have otherwise made the tournament. Normally these teams are seeded as much by geography as ranking, but with all games in the San Antonio area I have gone based primarily on best wins
Stanford Region
16 Utah Valley
15 Troy
14 UC Davis
13 Drexel
UConn Region
16 Mt St Mary's
15 Marist
14 Idaho St
13 Belmont
Texas A&M Region
16 High Point
15 Jackson St
14 Wyoming
13 Middle Tennessee
North Carolina St
16 Mercer
15 North Carolina A&T
14 Stony Brook
13 Lehigh
The remaining automatic qualifiers are Stephen F Austin, VCU, Wright St, Central Michigan and Bradley. I will place those teams and all the 5-12 seeds later today.
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undersized_post
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| Posted: 03/15/21 9:00 am ::: |
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| Gutsy choice to include Missouri State in the top 16 even though they didn't play their conference tournament. However, the committee often rewards the top mid-major team, so it's possible.
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undersized_post
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willtalk
Joined: 13 Apr 2012
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| Posted: 03/15/21 10:29 am ::: |
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| undersized_post wrote: |
| Gutsy choice to include Missouri State in the top 16 even though they didn't play their conference tournament. However, the committee often rewards the top mid-major team, so it's possible. |
I think there should be some negative repercussions to what Missouri St did. It would be a win win for them at someone elses expense. Plus their conference gets two bids instead of one. I don't know it it has changed, but conferences used to get a share of the Tournay money based on ow many teams they had playing in the tourney. It also screws another tema our of a spot. It opens up a real can of worms for other teams doing the same thing.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/21 1:11 pm ::: |
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| willtalk wrote: |
| undersized_post wrote: |
| Gutsy choice to include Missouri State in the top 16 even though they didn't play their conference tournament. However, the committee often rewards the top mid-major team, so it's possible. |
I think there should be some negative repercussions to what Missouri St did. It would be a win win for them at someone elses expense. Plus their conference gets two bids instead of one. I don't know it it has changed, but conferences used to get a share of the Tournay money based on ow many teams they had playing in the tourney. It also screws another tema our of a spot. It opens up a real can of worms for other teams doing the same thing. |
I don't see any negative repercussions from this. I will admit that I wanted to give support to Mid Majors, but Missouri St has a win over Maryland among its 7 Quadrant 1 wins. only Iowa (7-8) and West Virginia (7-5) have as many in this group.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/21 4:11 pm ::: |
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Once the top sixteen are placed the next group needs to be slotted to assure that the teams from the various conferences don't play before the round of 8. With 8 teams from the ACC and 7 each from the SEC and Big 10 this becomes a challenge. The teams considered for the four seed fill the fifth line with Gonzaga falling to the 6. The next group includes Northwestern, Georgia Tech, Texas, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Alabama, South Florida, Oregon and Oregon St. I don't see much difference in this group but Oregon is trending downward and Oregon St is trending upward. The Committee has not supported any recency bias so I will leave Oregon on the 6 line (along with Georgia Tech and Northwestern). I'll drop South Florida and Oklahoma St. to the 8 line and the rest of the teams will be the 7 seeds. South Dakota St would have also been in this group but with the loss of Myah Selland and their loss to Omaha they are dropped a few lines.
The next group includes 4 teams from the ACC (Virginia Tech, Florida St, North Carolina and Syracuse) with only 3 available for the 8 and 9 seeds, so I will drop Syracuse to a 10. Marquette, Oklahoma St and Florida Gulf Coast get the other 8-9 seeds. Michigan St., Central Florida, South Dakota, Washington St, Wake Forest, BYU round out the at-large berths. DePaul, Mississippi St and Houston are the first teams out.
The entire field:
Region 1
1 Stanford
16 Utah Valley
8 South Florida
9 Florida St
4 West Virginia
13 Drexel
5 Rutgers
12 Bradley
6 Oregon
11 South Dakota
3 Georgia
14 UC Davis
7 Northwestern
10 Syracuse
2 Louisville
15 Marist
REGION 4
1 North Carolina St
16 Mercer
8 Oklahoma St
9 Washington St
4 Arkansas
13 Lehigh
5 Iowa
12 Wright St
6 Gonzaga
11 Wake Forest
3 Arizona
14 Stony Brook
7 Texas
10 Michigan St
2 South Carolina
15 North Carolina A&T
Region 2
1 Connecticut
16 Mt St Mary's
8 Virginia Tech
9 Marquette
4 Indiana
13 Belmont
5 Kentucky
12 VCU
6 Iowa St
11 BYU
3 Tennessee
14 Idaho St
7 Oregon St
10 UCF
2 Baylor
15 Troy
Region 3
1 Texas A&M
16 High Point
5 Michigan
12 C Michigan
8 Florida Gulf Coast
9 North Carolina
4 Missouri St
13 Middle Tennessee
6 Georgia Tech
11 Stephen F Austin
3 UCLA
14 Wyoming
7 Alabama
10 South Dakota St
2 Maryland
15 Jackson St
Last edited by calbearman76 on 03/15/21 4:55 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/21 4:17 pm ::: Re: Building a Bracket |
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Thank you for that. If I had known that it may have had an effect on some choices, That type of small change in the presentation of the data can change perceptions of teams.
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021
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| Posted: 03/15/21 4:25 pm ::: |
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| You forgot the 2/15 matchup in the first region
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/21 4:57 pm ::: |
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| undersized_post wrote: |
| You forgot the 2/15 matchup in the first region |
OOPS!
I actually made a mistake with the 15 seeds from what I had previously listed, but I will go with this, including Louisville vs Marist
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calbearman76
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| Posted: 03/15/21 10:33 pm ::: |
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Overall the bracket had all 64 teams correct. The biggest mistake was putting Texas A&M over South Carolina as a 1 seed. I still believe that overall the Texas A&M resume was better but I can understand penalizing the Aggies for their overtime loss to LSU. On the other hand South Carolina was 0-3 against the 1 and 2 seeds. This doesn't really make much difference though as there was little difference between teams 3-6.
My pick of Missouri St as a 4 seed was in part to my affinity for Mid Majors, but I still have a problem with Kentucky. The Wildcats lost 3 games to teams that did not make the tournament; no other top 4 seed had more than 1. This is a little problematic as it gives UConn a very easy trip to the final 8. They play the winner of Syracuse - South Dakota St in the second round, two teams with serious injury concerns. Then they will likely play Iowa or Kentucky, two teams with basically one star and not much else.
Overall I had more than half (35) of the seeds correct and 25 more within 1 seed. Only 4 teams were off by more than 1 seed, Syracuse (which I moved from a 9 seed in order to have them not play an ACC team before the Elite 8), Florida Gulf Coast (I overseeded them because their only losses came to 2 Top 25 teams, but I mistakenly thought they had another good win besides UCF), Wake Forest (I'm surprised by this as I only had them make the tournament when they beat North Carolina) and UC Davis (The Committee must have been impressed with their loss to Oregon because their only top 150 win was over San Francisco.)
Now comes the real fun, the games themselves.
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undersized_post
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myrtle
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calbearman76
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| Posted: 03/16/21 1:00 am ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| undersized_post wrote: |
What insight did you have in including BYU? I was also surprised that WF made a 9-seed. But as others have noted, a 9-seed is actually worse than a 10 or 11 bc it creates essentially an impossible second round match-up. |
In general Bearman did a fabulous job.
I thought when Charlie asked the chairwoman why BYU made it over other bubblers, her answer was particularly weak. "we felt their body of work...blah blah" Personally I thought Depaul and Miss St. had played themselves out of the tourney so I was thinking to include BYU just as a foil to them making it.  It's kind of why there's two AAC teams as well - like how on God's green earth did UCF deserve a bid here? But again, I'd just as soon see a mid make it rather than a team making it just based on previous years' performance. Apparently the committee felt that way too. |
When you get into the last few teams it is always a flawed resume, but overall I think BYU deserved it. They beat Gonzaga once and played them down to the buzzer before Gonzaga hit a game winner with less than a second to go. They also beat LSU by 16, a team that Mississippi St lost to twice. I agree with you that both DePaul and Mississippi St played themselves out, but I would add Seton Hall (losing to Creighton in the Big East tourney), Houston (losing to Cincinnati in the last game of the regular season) and Oklahoma (losing to TCU in the second to last game of the season). In the end losing by a point to Gonzaga was a good final impression, and just enough to get them in.
I do have a better feeling about the American Conference. South Florida, Central Florida and Houston are all good (not great) teams. Combined the teams had a record of 40-6 against every one else. South Florida's only non conference loss was to Baylor, Central Florida lost only to Florida Gulf Coast and Houston's only loss was to Alabama. UCF had a bad conference loss to Temple in December but also beat USF once and Houston 3 times. Houston had 2 bad losses to Tulane and Cincinnati but beat South Florida. They also beat SF Austin which isn't a great win anywhere but the NET where the 'Jacks are #19. Overall this is a conference with 3 teams that can compete in the mid range of the major conferences.
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. So Bradley and Drake had positive Covid cases but both keep playing while Missouri State withdraws from the conference tournament. But after reading more about it, I get it 
, Florida Gulf Coast (I overseeded them because their only losses came to 2 Top 25 teams, but I mistakenly thought they had another good win besides UCF), Wake Forest (I'm surprised by this as I only had them make the tournament when they beat North Carolina) and UC Davis (The Committee must have been impressed with their loss to Oregon because their only top 150 win was over San Francisco.)