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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67052 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/16/14 12:11 pm ::: |
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Richyyy wrote: |
Like with Wauters being the 'worst pick ever'. There were one or two decent options that year, but most of the other options would have been as sucky or even suckier. |
There are a couple of potential ways to resolve that.
You could compare each player to the player whose score suggests they should have been taken in that slot. Compare #6 pick Jacinta Monroe to the 6th best player in her draft. The downside of that is that #1 picks can never be better than zero. Tina Charles is more than 100 points better than anyone in her draft, but still scores a zero because taking her #1 was the right choice. Basically, it only measures how wrong a pick is, it doesn't say anything about how right it was.
Alternatively, you could compare a player to the best player who was drafted after her. Compare #2 pick Marissa Coleman to the best player taken #3 or lower in her draft. The problem here is that drafts don't always distribute evenly. A thin draft like 2002 would tend to overrate the last good player taken.
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Mysticsfan12
Joined: 19 Sep 2014 Posts: 497
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Posted: 10/16/14 1:05 pm ::: |
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Emma Meesseman,
_________________ MYSTAKES NO MORE
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Jet Jaguar
Joined: 11 Feb 2014 Posts: 1111
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11187
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Posted: 10/16/14 4:17 pm ::: |
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It depends on how you do the math ... the difference is 69% of the lower number ...
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16378 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 10/16/14 4:22 pm ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
It depends on how you do the math ... the difference is 69% of the lower number ... |
That means that No. 1 is 69% higher.
Regardless, it is a big difference.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63872
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Posted: 10/16/14 7:20 pm ::: |
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Which third round pick has had the longest WNBA career?
I know Hammon was undrafted so she's the most impressive in that regard, but let's keep it to third round. I have a hunch it's a battle between Kraaveld and Houston, but I'd rather refer to the data base than do the math myself.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67052 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/16/14 7:26 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
Which third round pick has had the longest WNBA career? |
Taj McWilliams
Among non-ABL players it is Dominique Canty
Among players not from the 1999 draft it is Jia Perkins
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67052 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/18/14 10:08 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Richyyy wrote: |
Like with Wauters being the 'worst pick ever'. There were one or two decent options that year, but most of the other options would have been as sucky or even suckier. |
You could compare each player to the player whose score suggests they should have been taken in that slot. Compare #6 pick Jacinta Monroe to the 6th best player in her draft. |
Wauters doesn't crack the top 10 worst picks this way.
-146 Natalia Zasulskaya #12 in 1999
-127 Lisa Willis #5 in 2006
-117 Jackie Stiles #4 in 2001
-111 LaToya Thomas #1 in 2003
-111 Pam McGee #2 in 1997
-100 Tammi Reiss #5 in 1997
-99.5 Kelly Miller #2 in 2001
-97.5 Clarissa Davis-Wrightsil #22 in 1999
-94 Sandora Irvin #3 in 2005
-93.5 Jamila Wideman #3 in 1997
The Infamous Z-Woman was without a doubt the worst draft pick ever.
The three from 1997 are partly because nearly everyone from that draft got to play. The stakes were a lot higher than in any other draft.
Davis-Wrightsil just demonstrates how ridiculous the 1999 draft was that the 22nd best player scored 109. Even in a good draft year, say 2004, a score of 109 puts you in the top 10. A player who scored 109 from 2003 would have been the 2nd best player in the draft.
Anyway, the 10 best picks by this method are almost all late round gems...
134.5 Camille Little #17 in 2007
130 Cathrine Kraayeveld #27 in 2005
120 Sandy Brondello #34 in 1998
116.5 Leilani Mitchell #25 in 2008
111 Cheryl Ford #3 in 2003
110.5 Charde Houston #30 in 2008
110 Kalana Greene #13 in 2010
106.5 Elaine Powell #50 in 1999
104 Jia Perkins #35 in 2004
100.5 Tammy Sutton-Brown #18 in 2001
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 10/20/14 4:37 pm ::: |
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Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.
Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.
But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11187
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Posted: 10/20/14 6:10 pm ::: |
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CamrnCrz1974 wrote: |
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.
Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.
But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head. |
It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.
So do you judge the pick on
a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67052 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/20/14 7:57 pm ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
CamrnCrz1974 wrote: |
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.
Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.
But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head. |
It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.
So do you judge the pick on
a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games? |
A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,
Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 10/21/14 11:12 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
ClayK wrote: |
CamrnCrz1974 wrote: |
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.
Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.
But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head. |
It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.
So do you judge the pick on
a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games? |
A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,
Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous. |
Good point (and a fair one) about players not showing up and having to replace them (I feel like I am Kevin Pelton about to go into the WARP discussion). And context is certainly important. The talent level in the league is certainly greater now, both in terms of quality of players and depth.
At the same time, Wauters played in all or part of 8 WNBA seasons and averaged 10.8 points (on 53.8 shooting) and 5.5 rebounds per game for her career.
Mills played three full WNBA seasons and a total of nine games in two other seasons (meaning all or part of 5 WNBA seasons) and averaged 2.7 points (on 38.3 percent shooting) and 2.6 rebounds for her career.
Wauters was the #1 pick in 2000; Mills was #2. Wauters may be the worst #1 pick, but I would still take her over Mills. Wauters performed when she did show up; Mills never performed.
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 10/21/14 11:13 am ::: |
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Disagreements or questions aside, kudos to pilight for putting all of this together and giving us interesting topics for debate and discussion!!!
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sigur3
Joined: 18 Jun 2013 Posts: 6191 Location: Chicago-ish
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Posted: 10/21/14 5:25 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
ClayK wrote: |
CamrnCrz1974 wrote: |
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.
Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.
But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head. |
It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.
So do you judge the pick on
a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games? |
A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,
Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous. |
If you say that Nneka is a better player than Wauters already, you could easily make the same argument for Chiney. Her rookie season was more impressive than any of Wauters' years in the WNBA. I know you meant that it's too early to tell whether she'll have a better career, but I'd say that she's well on her way, having already surpassed Wauters quite a few of Ann's career highs...
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p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
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Posted: 10/21/14 10:57 pm ::: |
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Simply ranking the players by career Win Shares, it's apparent that we could redraft 2000 into infinity and Wauters would always be one of the first two players selected. For a quick frame of reference, Chiney Ogwumike has already accumulated 4.7 career Win Shares, Nneka is up to 17.0, and Prahalis is at -0.8 through 2014:
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# Player Tm CrWS
-- ------------------- --- ----
1 Ann Wauters CLE 19.8
6 Betty Lennox MIN 17.1
9 Kamila Vodichkova SEA 13.4
51 Kristen Rasmussen UTA 12.9
21 Adrian Williams PHO 6.0
17 Helen Darling CLE 5.7
26 Jurgita Streimikyte IND 4.6
63 Nicky McCrimmon LAS 3.1
8 Tamicha Jackson DET 2.6
23 Stacey Thomas POR 2.4
16 Elena Shakirova HOU 1.5
4 Cintia dos Santos ORL 1.4
5 Grace Daley MIN 1.4
11 Summer Erb CHA 1.4
25 Charisse Sampson SEA 1.2
14 Katy Steding SAC 1.1
30 Stacy Clinesmith SAC 0.9
22 Marla Brumfield MIN 0.8
7 Lynn Pride POR 0.7
10 Maylana Martin MIN 0.7
35 Stacy Frese UTA 0.6
27 Tiffany Travis CHA 0.5
2 Tausha Mills WAS 0.4
18 Tonya Washington WAS 0.2
24 Keitha Dickerson MIN 0.2
12 Naomi Mulitauaopele UTA 0.1
13 Olga Firsova NYL 0.1
28 Madinah Slaise DET 0.1
31 Paige Sauer LAS 0.1
56 Shanele Stires MIN 0.1
58 Renee Robinson IND 0.1
15 Nicole Kubik LAS 0.0
29 Desiree Francis NYL 0.0
46 Rhonda Banchero SAC -0.1
52 Roman Hamzova ORL -0.1
40 Milena Flores MIA -0.2
42 Usha Gilmore IND -0.2
45 Jessica Bibby NYL -0.2
57 Katrina Hibbert SEA -0.2
53 Shantia Owens PHO -0.3
3 Edwina Brown DET -0.4
20 Jannon Roland ORL -0.5
32 Andrea Garner HOU -0.6
19 Jameka Jones MIA -0.8 |
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11187
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Posted: 10/22/14 10:14 am ::: |
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That list brings back a lot of memories ... some good, some not.
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Luuuc #NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005 Posts: 21951
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Posted: 10/22/14 7:22 pm ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
That list brings back a lot of memories ... some good, some not. |
Yeah, lots of good memories, including CLE, UTA, DET, POR, HOU, ORL, CHA, SAC, MIA, ...
_________________ Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.
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Jet Jaguar
Joined: 11 Feb 2014 Posts: 1111
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Posted: 10/23/14 3:21 pm ::: |
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p_d_swanson wrote: |
Simply ranking the players by career Win Shares, it's apparent that we could redraft 2000 into infinity and Wauters would always be one of the first two players selected. For a quick frame of reference, Chiney Ogwumike has already accumulated 4.7 career Win Shares, Nneka is up to 17.0, and Prahalis is at -0.8 through 2014: |
Win Shares is a completely meaningless stat that in no way should be used to evaluate a player. How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games? And the other seasons by Prahalis she didn't play enough to even use that stat, meaningless as it is.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24397 Location: London
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Posted: 10/23/14 5:16 pm ::: |
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Jet Jaguar wrote: |
How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games? |
DeWanna Bonner finished with 3.2. Prahalis was 13th on the team. |
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Jet Jaguar
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PRballer
Joined: 18 Apr 2007 Posts: 2559
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Posted: 10/28/14 9:52 am ::: |
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KEITHA DICKERSON. Small 4 from Texas Tech who actually stuck on a team. Wow, blast from the past.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67052 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/12/15 10:18 am ::: |
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How does the class of 2011 stack up?
As a whole the class produced 1755.5 value points. That's 10th best out of 15 drafts. It's the best since 2008.
Nobody in the class of 2011 came close to being the worst pick ever. Liz Cambage, the #2 pick, grades out 9th and Amber Harris, the #4 pick, grades out 12th on the worst pick ever list.
Ta'Shia Phillips ranks as the worst ever #8 pick. Jasmine Thomas ranks as the best ever #12 pick. Karima Christmas ranks as the best ever #23 pick. Krystal Thomas ranks as the best ever #36 pick.
The steal of the draft was Jasmine Thomas, who played all 170 games, starting 115 of them, as the #12 pick.
The bust of the 2011 draft was Liz Cambage, who played 53 games (27 starts) as the #2 pick.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67052 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/20/16 8:15 pm ::: |
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How does the class of 2012 stack up?
As a whole the class produced 1296 value points. Only 2003 had fewer.
Nobody in the class of 2012 came close to being the worst pick ever
Astan Dabo is the first #9 pick to not play in the league, and thus was the worst ever #9 pick. Nobody in the 2012 draft was the best ever at their draft slot.
Steal of the draft was Lynetta Kizer, who played 146 games, with 27 starts, as the #29 pick.
The bust of the 2012 draft was Samantha Prahalis, who played 41 games (30 starts) as the #6 pick.
NOTE: I made the assumption that Nneka Ogwumike would be All WNBA this season and no one else from the class of 2012 would join her. If this proves to be in error, I will refigure.
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Luuuc #NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005 Posts: 21951
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012 Posts: 8407 Location: Northfield, MN
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