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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67155 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 05/03/12 2:13 pm ::: Best draft picks ever |
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http://www.swishappeal.com/2012/5/3/2996530/best-draft-picks-ever
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There were twelve players who graded out 100 or more points above average for their draft position. Not surprisingly, nine of them came from the 1999 draft. Even less surprising is who ranked #1... |
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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Michelle89
Joined: 17 Nov 2010 Posts: 16467 Location: Holland
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11230
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Posted: 05/03/12 3:42 pm ::: |
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Spectacularly good story ... wonderfully done.
As always, though, any purely mathematical system has its limitations. Ann Wauters get classified as a bust because she chose not to play here very often. That certainly means she wasn't a great pick, but at the same time, she's a really good player.
A couple of players were derailed by injury so that's a bit unfair, but there are a lot of healthy players whose careers can legitimately be compared.
Again, great stuff ...
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67155 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 05/03/12 3:52 pm ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
Spectacularly good story ... wonderfully done.
As always, though, any purely mathematical system has its limitations. Ann Wauters get classified as a bust because she chose not to play here very often. That certainly means she wasn't a great pick, but at the same time, she's a really good player.
A couple of players were derailed by injury so that's a bit unfair, but there are a lot of healthy players whose careers can legitimately be compared.
Again, great stuff ... |
Even if Wauters played here full time she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Only Thomas and McCarville are likely to be ranked below her.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24413 Location: London
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Posted: 05/03/12 4:03 pm ::: |
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Yeah, part of the point of Barnwell's system was to judge how good the pick was, not necessarily the player. That's why it only looks at success in the first few years in the league - because if the player gets better after that he/she might well not be doing it for the team that drafted them (as was indeed the case with Wauters, although the death of the Rockers obviously had a hand in that). Wauters took a while to develop into the player she eventually became.
Really interesting stuff. Arguably it actually works better for a league like the WNBA than it did for the NFL.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Dabo break the Creamer record you mention. |
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psheehy
Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 2972
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Posted: 05/03/12 5:24 pm ::: |
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Richyyy wrote: |
Yeah, part of the point of Barnwell's system was to judge how good the pick was, not necessarily the player. That's why it only looks at success in the first few years in the league - because if the player gets better after that he/she might well not be doing it for the team that drafted them (as was indeed the case with Wauters, although the death of the Rockers obviously had a hand in that). Wauters took a while to develop into the player she eventually became.
Really interesting stuff. Arguably it actually works better for a league like the WNBA than it did for the NFL.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Dabo break the Creamer record you mention. |
For the WNBA we also have to penalize picks for their contribution to the league. When players fall out due to injury (Stiles) or internationally competitive pay (Wauters) then the PICK should be penalized. Were Stiles or Wauters bad picks based on talent? CERTAINLY not, but they were both TERRIBLE picks based on their contributions from a league perspective.
Is it better to pick a #3 player at #1 because they will be both healthy and will play than to pick either an injured or marginally interested international player? YES!!!!!! Who cares if player A or B is way better than player C if player C is the best player who will actually PLAY FOR YOUR TEAM???!!!! Drafting is about so much more than talent in the WNBA where the salaries don't mean AUTOMATIC commitment from the players.
_________________ Coach Agler's 2014 Off Season Task List
1) Think about "what if?" he had gotten that lottery ball in 2015....
2) Remember to watch some NCAA games
3) Invest in mystical restorative ointments for hips, knees, backs and well everything.
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RavenDog
Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Posts: 6887 Location: Home
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zonetrapper
Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Posts: 20
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Posted: 05/03/12 10:13 pm ::: |
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Wow - this is really interesting.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11230
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Posted: 05/04/12 10:31 am ::: |
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Wauters is an interesting player ...
Her first three years in the league, she was 19, 20 and 21, and not surprisingly, the first two years weren't that good. Her third season she averaged 11 points and five rebounds and shot 55% from the field.
She was hurt in 2004, but in 2005, at age 24, she averaged 13.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg and shot 54%. In 2008, she averaged 14.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg and shot 53%.
To me, those two seasons are pretty good, but as pointed out, not comparable to some of the other top picks.
Her half season in 2009 was down somewhat from 2008, but still respectable: 12.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55%.
But given her spotty record of showing up, she clearly was a bad No. 1 pick, which is what this is about, as was Stiles. The reason I brought this up is that the word "bust" has the connotation that the player wasn't very good, which I don't think is true in Wauters' case (though it certainly fits LaToya Thomas).
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67155 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 05/04/12 10:53 am ::: |
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The usual question is "who could we have drafted that would have been better?" In Wauters case she ranks 10th among class of 2000 draftees in value points over the first five years. Every other #1 pick, including LaToya Thomas, is in the top 5 of her class. Wauters and McCarville are the only #1 picks outscored by non-first rounders. McCarville has one non-first rounder ahead of her, which could be dismissed as a fluke. Wauters has four, including a 4th round pick.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
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Posted: 05/04/12 11:54 am ::: |
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Wauters may have been a bust for the team that drafted her but she's a wonderfully talented player who contributed mightily to dispatching a Lisa Leslie/Candace Parker led team from the playoffs a couple years ago. You just had to have seen her play against Lisa Leslie from 15 feet away to better appreciate why most teams would happily take on the risk/reward of having her around. If the WNBA had its own Hall of Fame, Wauters wouldn't get in it without a ticket. But like so many players I can think of who have come through the league, she could have had a steller career worthy of hall of fame consideration. The WNBA is great, but if the money was there? Look out. You'd see interest and devotion and a WNBA career being the primary career focus of all these players for whom it is clearly not now the focus of their lives._________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
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bballfan2005
Joined: 22 Aug 2005 Posts: 25315 Location: Somewhere here and there
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Michelle89
Joined: 17 Nov 2010 Posts: 16467 Location: Holland
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67155 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/17/12 2:57 pm ::: |
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How does the class of 2008 stack up?
As a whole the class produced 2219.5 value points. That's the 4th best total ever, behind 1999, 2001, and 1998. 1998's total is inflated by the lack of competition for jobs from the ABL players in their first year.
Nobody in the class of 2008 came close to being the best or worst ever pick.
The 2008 draft produced the best pick ever at positions #7 (Essence Carson), #16 (Nicky Anosike) and #25 (Leilani Mitchell). 2008 also had the best pick that wasn't an ABL player at #36 (Kimberly Beck) and #43 (Charel Allen).
The steal of the 2008 draft was Anosike, who started 122 games and made an All Star appearance from the #16 spot. She was 96.1 points above average for a #16.
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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Martini Man
Joined: 31 Aug 2011 Posts: 4399 Location: Canada
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63967
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Posted: 10/17/12 4:10 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points. |
How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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mavcarter #NATC
Joined: 02 Sep 2010 Posts: 5935 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 10/17/12 6:30 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points. |
How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes. |
Wasn't that like four years ago?_________________
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Or maybe said poster should quit being a nuisance when people don’t agree? |
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StevenHW
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 10983 Location: Sacramento, California
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 10/17/12 9:15 pm ::: |
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I'm way too lazy to look it up, but Kraay has to be close to Newton as a best at her #.
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mannman
Joined: 02 Jan 2006 Posts: 1181
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Posted: 10/17/12 9:20 pm ::: |
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mavcarter wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points. |
How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes. |
Wasn't that like four years ago? |
She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67155 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/17/12 9:25 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
I'm way too lazy to look it up, but Kraay has to be close to Newton as a best at her #. |
Kraayeveld is the second best #27 pick (after Adrienne Goodson in 1999). Newton is the best #22 pick (Marla Brumfield in 2000 is a distant second). Kraay is actually more points above average for her pick than Newton, and had the second most value points in the 2005 draft (after Loree Moore) for the years studied.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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mavcarter #NATC
Joined: 02 Sep 2010 Posts: 5935 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 10/17/12 10:08 pm ::: |
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mannman wrote: |
mavcarter wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points. |
How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes. |
Wasn't that like four years ago? |
She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team. |
Fair enough. But out of the top four players selected, Wiggins has been the worst, IMO._________________
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Or maybe said poster should quit being a nuisance when people don’t agree? |
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63967
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Posted: 10/18/12 7:19 am ::: |
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mavcarter wrote: |
mannman wrote: |
mavcarter wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points. |
How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes. |
Wasn't that like four years ago? |
She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team. |
Fair enough. But out of the top four players selected, Wiggins has been the worst, IMO. |
Wasn't Hornbuckle #4? You seem to be having difficulty remembering Lynx player ranking from just last year.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63967
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Posted: 10/18/12 7:19 am ::: |
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mavcarter wrote: |
mannman wrote: |
mavcarter wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points. |
How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes. |
Wasn't that like four years ago? |
She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team. |
Fair enough. But out of the top four players selected, Wiggins has been the worst, IMO. |
Wasn't Hornbuckle #4? You seem to be having difficulty remembering Lynx player ranking from just last year.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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caune
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 17919 Location: Valley of the Bun
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