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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019
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 Posted: 12/22/21 6:34 pm ::: |
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| GEF34 wrote: |
| Ole Miss is averaging about the same amount of points this year as they did last year, so that means the point distribution is different than it was last year and other players are stepping up, perhaps having different roles or new roles. So is it she is just playing badly or her role and other roles have changed from this year to last year. You mention she is taking few shots this year than last year which could be attributed to a slightly different role than before. And she is also playing about 4 minutes less than last season which could be attributed to the slight dip in production. |
Again, the main issue is that she’s making a lower percentage of her shots than she was last year (51.9% down to 46.7%), in addition to shooting less often. It wouldn’t be too much of a concern if she were simply shooting less often but making her shots at about the same clip. Combined though, it makes it look to me like she’s regressed a bit in that particular category.
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GEF34
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| Posted: 12/22/21 8:35 pm ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
| GEF34 wrote: |
| Ole Miss is averaging about the same amount of points this year as they did last year, so that means the point distribution is different than it was last year and other players are stepping up, perhaps having different roles or new roles. So is it she is just playing badly or her role and other roles have changed from this year to last year. You mention she is taking few shots this year than last year which could be attributed to a slightly different role than before. And she is also playing about 4 minutes less than last season which could be attributed to the slight dip in production. |
Again, the main issue is that she’s making a lower percentage of her shots than she was last year (51.9% down to 46.7%), in addition to shooting less often. It wouldn’t be too much of a concern if she were simply shooting less often but making her shots at about the same clip. Combined though, it makes it look to me like she’s regressed a bit in that particular category. |
Is she getting the same shots she was getting last year?
Looking at some stats it seems she is taking more shots further away from the basket this year than she did last year, which again could be attributed to playing a different role this year.
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root_thing
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| Posted: 12/22/21 8:43 pm ::: |
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| I don't think fewer shots and a lower field goal percentage are necessarily an unusual combination. If teams are focusing more defensive attention on a player, then shooting in general will be harder. Her choices are to not shoot or force up a difficult shot. That can easily lead to fewer attempts as well as a lower shooting percentage. Again, I haven't followed Austin yet this season so I don't pretend to know. I just don't think that combination is necessarily more worrisome than a drop in efficiency alone.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/26/21 1:58 am ::: |
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| GEF34 wrote: |
Is she getting the same shots she was getting last year?
Looking at some stats it seems she is taking more shots further away from the basket this year than she did last year, which again could be attributed to playing a different role this year. |
Good question, that I do not know the answer to. If she's trying to take tougher shots that good pro players make more times than not, good on her. However, you still have to make them to justify continuing to take them. You can get away with using games against easier opponents to try to integrate new skills into your toolbox, but if it doesn't go smoothly, you may abandon trying to continue to do so when the stakes are higher against better competition and simply go back to your bread-and-butter basics.
Seems more & more likely then that the jury is out on her and we'll simply have to wait to see how she plays in conference play.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/26/21 2:44 am ::: |
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Hope everyone is having a good holiday season! I've had some extra time, so here are some mid-ish-season stats on some of the most talked-about college prospects this season. Everyone's points average, rebounds average, and ATO is listed, as well as additional stats to add further context. Organized by positional group primarily from 5 to 1, and then PPG average secondarily from highest to lowest, if that makes sense. All stats courtesy of HerHoopStats. (Why yes I am excited to renew my subscription on New Years, thx for asking!) I'm sure someone will let me know if I messed up anyone or missed anyone important – or if I have someone surprising listed, no doubt...
NOTABLE DRAFT-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS:
Ayoka Lee, C, Kansas State: 23.8 PPG on 57.0% FG & 73.1% FT on 5.6 FTA/G, 11.1 RPG (3.4 ORPG), 0.5 AST to 0.9 TO, 1.3 SPG, 4.0 BPG
Elissa Cunane, C, NC State: 13.5 PPG on 52.1% FG (37.5% 3PT on 0.6 3PTA/G) & 82.1% FT on 4.3 FTA/G, 7.8 RPG (2.1 ORPG), 1.2 AST to 1.7 TO, 0.6 BPG
Shakira Austin, C, Ole Miss: 13.2 PPG on 46.7% FG & 67.7% FT on 5.0 FTA/G, 8.6 RPG (2.2 ORPG), 1.8 AST to 2.6 TO, 1.8 SPG, 2.0 BPG
Sedona Prince, C, Oregon: 11.8 PPG on 55.7% FG & 66.7% FT on 3.0 FTA/G, 5.1 RPG (1.3 ORPG), 1.6 AST to 1.2 TO, 1.4 BPG
Nyara Sabally, F/C, Oregon: 16.7 PPG on 50.0% FG (50.0% 3PT on 1.3 3PTA/G) & 83.3% FT on 4.0 FTA/G, 6.7 RPG (2.3 ORPG), 2.3 AST to 1.7 TO, 1.3 SPG, 1.3 BPG
*3 games played thus far, including most recent one
Olivia Nelson-Ododa, F/C, UConn: 8.6 PPG on 56.9% FG & 68.8% FT on 1.8 FTA/G, 7.4 RPG (1.9 ORPG), 3.3 AST to 2.6 TO, 1.0 SPG, 1.9 BPG
Lorela Cubaj, F/C, Georgia Tech: 8.4 PPG on 39.3% FG (12.5% 3PT on 0.7 3PTA/G) & 50.0% FT on 2.7 FTA/G, 12.6 RPG (2.8 ORPG), 4.8 AST to 1.5 TO, 1.6 SPG, 1.7 BPG
NaLyssa Smith, F, Baylor: 20.5 PPG on 56.8% FG (33.3% 3PT on 1.1 3PTA/G) & 75.7% FT on 6.4 FTA/G, 13.3 RPG (3.6 ORPG), 1.0 AST to 3.0 TO, 1.3 BPG
Naz Hillmon, F, Michigan: 20.2 PPG on 56.3% FG & 69.8% FT on 5.7 FTA/G, 8.6 RPG (3.8 ORPG), 2.2 AST to 3.5 TO, 1.1 SPG, 0.4 BPG
Mya Hollingshed, F, Colorado: 14.7 PPG on 48.1% FG (44.2% 3PT on 3.9 3PTA/G) & 73.1% FT on 2.4 FTA/G, 6.5 RPG (1.2 ORPG), 1.8 AST to 2.3 TO, 1.5 SPG, 1.2 BPG
Kierstan Bell, F/G, FGCU: 26.8 PPG on 50.0% FG (27.5% 3PT on 8.9 3PTA/G) & 64.3% FT on 4.7 FTA/G, 9.1 RPG (1.0 ORPG), 2.2 AST to 2.4 TO, 1.4 SPG, 1.6 BPG
Ashley Joens, F/G, Iowa State: 19.9 PPG on 38.5% FG (36.3% 3PT on 7.6 3PTA/G) & 86.2% FT on 5.4 FTA/G, 9.5 RPG (2.7 ORPG), 2.4 AST to 1.6 TO, 0.7 SPG
Rhyne Howard, F/G, Kentucky: 18.7 PPG on 45.7% FG (33.3% 3PT on 5.4 3PTA/G) & 77.4% FT on 5.3 FTA/G, 6.5 RPG (1.8 ORPG), 4.1 AST to 1.9 TO, 3.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG
Lexie Hull, F/G, Stanford: 10.5 PPG on 40.9% FG (41.7% 3PT on 3.3 3PTA/G) & 55.0% FT on 1.8 FTA/G, 6.4 RPG (2.5 ORPG), 2.2 AST to 1.8 TO, 2.4 SPG
Emily Engstler, F/G, Louisville: 9.9 PPG on 47.9% FG (52.2% 3PT on 2.1 3PTA/G) & 58.3% FT on 1.1 FTA/G, 8.8 RPG (1.8 ORPG), 1.4 AST to 2.7 TO, 2.5 SPG, 1.7 BPG
Nia Clouden, G, Michigan State: 21.8 PPG on 48.9% FG (40.0% 3PT on 3.8 3PTA/G) & 90.8% FT on 7.5 FTA/G, 4.3 RPG, 4.4 AST to 3.1 TO, 1.3 SPG, 0.8 BPG
Taylor Robertson, G, Oklahoma: 19.8 PPG on 49.6% FG (48.7% 3PT on 10.3 3PTA/G) & 92.1% FT on 3.5 FTA/G, 4.3 RPG, 3.5 AST to 1.5 TO, 1.0 SPG
Christyn Williams, G, UConn: 13.8 PPG on 43.2% FG (30.0% 3PT on 3.3 3PTA/G) & 73.1% FT on 2.9 FTA/G, 2.8 RPG, 2.6 AST to 2.2 TO, 0.7 SPG
Evina Westbrook, G, UConn: 10.1 PPG on 38.7% FG (30.3% 3PT on 3.7 3PTA/G) & 74.2% FT on 3.4 FTA/G, 4.0 RPG, 3.9 AST to 2.3 TO, 1.4 SPG
Veronica Burton, PG, Northwestern: 17.6 PPG on 41.7% FG (35.8% 3PT on 4.4 3PTA/G) & 91.1% FT on 6.6 FTA/G, 5.3 RPG (1.3 ORPG), 5.9 AST to 2.1 TO, 3.7 SPG, 1.3 BPG
Khayla Pointer, PG, LSU: 17.3 PPG on 46.3% FG (34.3% 3PT on 2.9 3PTA/G) & 58.9% FT on 4.7 FTA/G, 6.7 RPG (1.8 ORPG), 5.0 AST to 2.6 TO, 1.3 SPG
Destanni Henderson, PG, South Carolina: 12.8 PPG on 50.6% FG (46.7% 3PT on 3.3 3PTA/G) & 73.9% FT on 2.6 FTA/G, 3.2 RPG, 4.8 AST to 2.3 TO, 2.3 SPG
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 12/26/21 1:36 pm ::: |
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Any college senior whose field goal percentage is less than forty percent is not a very good pro prospect. I will also add that any pro prospect that is scoring a lot of points but with a field goal percentage that is barely over forty percent is a volume shooter. She is a mother chucker.
If Naylssa Smith really had a growth spurt and is truly six feet four inches tall then my prediction is Washington will draft her over Howard.
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blaase22
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| Posted: 12/26/21 5:36 pm ::: |
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| It is virtually impossible that Smith had a growth spurt at 22.
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PickledGinger
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| Posted: 12/26/21 7:27 pm ::: |
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After watching as many highlights of Smith as I could find, I'm signing on to her being 6'4". If she's not, it's only because she has a short neck and a small-ish head. But she has a 6'4" frame from the shoulders down. There's a block on Natasha Mack from her sophomore year at the 1:07 mark of the video below. Mack's arms are longer, but Smith appears to be the same height with broader shoulders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYr8kMiNZLg
Just to throw a little more fuel on the fire of the Joens / Carleton comparison: Carleton was 34-38 in the Big 12 in her career. Joens is 37-17 in her first 3 seasons. Joens has been on the WNBA radar since her Sophomore season, while Carleton really only started getting noticed during the back half of her Senior year when the Cyclones started winning conference games they weren't expected to. They may have had similar statistics, but Carleton's only winning season came during her senior year...on a team that also featured Joens. In terms of impact to the program and to winning games, there's a huge gap between the two. The Cyclones have a real opportunity to have their best season since 99-00, and the most important piece of that has been Joens. IMO, she has the intangibles to have a solid career in the W.
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Last edited by PickledGinger on 12/26/21 9:58 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/26/21 9:58 pm ::: |
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| As a PF, NaLyssa Smith’s true height shouldn’t make or break where she gets drafted or how she fares. The height range of PFs in the League coincidentally seems to be 6’2”-6’4”, give or take an inch. It’d be different – and imo worth analyzing more – if she were more of a C than a PF, but she’s not.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/26/21 11:04 pm ::: |
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| What do Michigan State/Big Ten followers think of Nia Clouden’s chances of succeeding at this level? She puts up big numbers, including that 50-burger the other day, but so did former Spartan Tori Jankoska (and we remember how that turned out). I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game of hers.
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 12/27/21 1:34 am ::: |
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| Now that Atlanta is drafting in third place they might try to get DeShields in free agency. But if Bell comes out early then Atlanta will have the chance to draft either Howard or Bell. With that narrative change they might lose their urgency to acquire DeShields.🤔
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 12/27/21 1:41 am ::: |
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| Rock Hard wrote: |
| Now that Atlanta is drafting in third place they might try to get DeShields in free agency. But if Bell comes out early then Atlanta will have the chance to draft either Howard or Bell. With that narrative change they might lose their urgency to acquire DeShields.🤔 |
Cancel the above statement about DeShields. Free agency for the WNBA takes place before the draft. So Atlanta will have to gamble on trying to sign DeShields or see if they can get lucky in the draft.🙃
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root_thing
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Rock Hard
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Shades
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| Posted: 12/27/21 2:29 pm ::: |
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That’s cherry-picking to make a joke.
Even staying in this millennial, there are others who scored above 50 who were not in the Big Ten.
58 Moe Kinard, Lamar 2018
57 Kelsey Plum, Washington 2017
56 Jackie Stiles, Missouri St 2000
54 Elena Delle Donne, Delaware 2010
54 Briana Williams, Mercer 2012
53 Jasmine Nwajei, Wagner 2016
Also, to score 60 pts, Banham needed double OT. Only scored 42 pts in regulation. Breakdown by period: 11-9-4-18-10-8
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root_thing
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| Posted: 12/27/21 3:07 pm ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| That’s cherry-picking to make a joke. |
And notably, as you point out, it's just a joke.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/27/21 3:29 pm ::: |
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| Can't believe making literally harmless jokes isn't allowed on this women's basketball forum. Absolutely gutted to learn this. 😔
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undersized_post
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| Posted: 12/27/21 11:00 pm ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
| What do Michigan State/Big Ten followers think of Nia Clouden’s chances of succeeding at this level? She puts up big numbers, including that 50-burger the other day, but so did former Spartan Tori Jankoska (and we remember how that turned out). I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game of hers. |
I still don't really feel like I know my way around the WNBA enough to know if she has a legit chance to stick with a team, but my gut instinct is to think it's not likely. She relies a lot on getting to the rim, and I'm not sure she'd still be able to do that as well against some of the better rim protecting centers that she'd face in the W. But, I love her game and I'd love her to prove me wrong!
One thing working in her favor is that, so far, she's upped her 3P% to >40% (on a respectable 3.8 attempts) this season, after shooting 32% as a junior and just 27% as a sophomore.
Regarding her putting up 50 points -- it's not altogether surprising. MSU's 2nd leading scorer Alyza Winston just left the team so they haven't had much of a chance to figure out how to run a more balanced offense without her. So for the time being, Clouden is the offense. And, like Banham's aforementioned sixty-whatever point game, Clouden's 50 point game occured in double OT.
edit: To add, while not a bad defender by any means, Clouden isn't known for her defense in the same way that, say, fellow Big Ten PG Veronica Burton is. As a pro GM, for that reason alone, I'd give Burton a glance before Clouden, even though both are equally capable players at the college level.
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 12/28/21 12:01 am ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
| Can't believe making literally harmless jokes isn't allowed on this women's basketball forum. Absolutely gutted to learn this. 😔 |
You should know by now that the Rebkell God does not have any humor. He is the one who knows EVERYTHING about women's basketball.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/28/21 1:30 am ::: |
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| Rock Hard wrote: |
| You should know by now that the Rebkell God does not have any humor. |
The sad thing is, he does have humor, but it can tragically be boiled down to this. 🙈 Not a good look, but it's still not too late to apologize for it. Anyway, if I had to pick, I'd prefer this humorless version of him over that one.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 12/28/21 1:38 am ::: |
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Let me be maybe the first one to say that anyone whose names aren't Rhyne Howard or NaLyssa Smith who would be eligible to return to college next season (which is to say, most of them) should highly consider doing so if the rest of their season doesn't pan out like they hoped. I really don't want to see another 2021 Draft redux where you have these prospects who all could've stayed in school another year turn pro, only to almost all be exposed as not ready for it, and now they're trying to salvage their playing careers overseas (some succeeding... some not) in hopes that the forward momentum will lift them through their sophomore campaigns in the summer. And especially now that star student-athletes can get endorsement deals, you'd think that'll have more of an influence on such a decision, but who really knows. I just know that after that dumpster fire of a 2021 rookie class, I don't think I can criticize any wcbb player ever again for returning to school another season vs. turning pro before all their eligibility is used up, even if they appear to be ready for it.
| undersized_post wrote: |
| Stormeo wrote: |
| What do Michigan State/Big Ten followers think of Nia Clouden’s chances of succeeding at this level? She puts up big numbers, including that 50-burger the other day, but so did former Spartan Tori Jankoska (and we remember how that turned out). I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game of hers. |
I still don't really feel like I know my way around the WNBA enough to know if she has a legit chance to stick with a team, but my gut instinct is to think it's not likely. She relies a lot on getting to the rim, and I'm not sure she'd still be able to do that as well against some of the better rim protecting centers that she'd face in the W. But, I love her game and I'd love her to prove me wrong!
One thing working in her favor is that, so far, she's upped her 3P% to >40% (on a respectable 3.8 attempts) this season, after shooting 32% as a junior and just 27% as a sophomore.
Regarding her putting up 50 points -- it's not altogether surprising. MSU's 2nd leading scorer Alyza Winston just left the team so they haven't had much of a chance to figure out how to run a more balanced offense without her. So for the time being, Clouden is the offense. And, like Banham's aforementioned sixty-whatever point game, Clouden's 50 point game occured in double OT.
edit: To add, while not a bad defender by any means, Clouden isn't known for her defense in the same way that, say, fellow Big Ten PG Veronica Burton is. As a pro GM, for that reason alone, I'd give Burton a glance before Clouden, even though both are equally capable players at the college level. |
Thanks for your input! So Clouden's more of a slasher... Looking at her FTA attempts, that certainly tracks. I'd say she should try to go the Tiffany Hayes route, but Hayes has a few inches on her; Unless Clouden plays more on the ball than it lets on, her being a 5-8 off guard will be a problem for her. She'll absolutely need to keep defenses honest by continuing to make the modest handful of 3PT attempts she averages at a good clip in order to hope to get drafted in the 1st round. That's why I think Anastasia Hayes isn't really talked about anymore – she still can't shoot at all, and she's shorter than Clouden is. It's so hard to succeed as a regular-sized guard who can't shoot in the W, let alone an undersized one. Hope Clouden eventually goes to the right team.
Like Clouden, I haven't seen enough of Burton either, but it would appear that she's well-rounded enough to succeed – as a scorer, a passer, and most certainly as a defender. As a 5-9 PG, it'll help her that she isn't so undersized either. Her hot start from 3PT range in the beginning of the season has all but dissipated though (probably to a level she can & will sustain), and it often takes true PGs some time to find their feet in the League – if the team they're on even gives them such time. I just hope Burton doesn't turn into another Jordin Canada, who's given time to develop as a shooter but simply never does, and it destroys nearly the rest of her game. If I were the GM of a WNBA team that needed a PG in the Draft, I'd take Destanni Henderson first, who can be just as relentless an on-ball defender as Burton but is a more consistent shooter. PGs who can shoot are so few & far between in this League, imo. And we're not even gonna touch on Evina Westbrook right now at that mess of a program she's in.  
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