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#2 Baylor vs #1 Connecticut - 3/29/21
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Shades



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 11:31 pm    ::: #2 Baylor vs #1 Connecticut - 3/29/21 Reply Reply with quote

NCAA Tournament
River Walk Regional Final
San Antonio, TX - 7:00 PM ET

TV: ESPN (Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo)

Video stream:
https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/id/e15fadd1-32eb-4a49-a0f8-af724e7d6e14#bucketId=1 (tvpli)

Audio:
https://listen.tunein.com/connecticutwbbschedule

Live stats:
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/game?gameId=401311222

https://www.ncaa.com/game/5799544



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singinerd54



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 12:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I feel significantly better about our (UConn's) chances after watching both Sweet Sixteen games, but definitely acknowledge we played quite well against Iowa.

Edwards on Smith is a great match up! Didi on Paige should be fun! Though Didi didn't guard Leigha Brown for most of the game, so maybe she won't guard Paige?

Geno says Nika is unlikely (https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-sp-uconn-women-nika-shea-update-20210329-20210328-63qfjecp2vhwvb7et7rsx3w46u-story.html).

I was looking forward to Nika stealing the ball from Didi multiple times. Felt likely one or both of them would get a technical (and maybe a flagrant) given how hard they both play.

Kim said she wouldn't outcoach Geno. If Baylor wins, I expect that exact thing will have happened.

Fingers crossed the refs aren't too involved and that calls do not favor either team. Foul trouble could be problematic either way.

I wonder if Geno will use the "big" lineup we say against South Carolina that includes ONO, Aaliyah, and Aubrey.


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 12:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For those on the Muhl train because of her supposed defensive prowess, I believe you have been bamboozled by her occasional steals from Big Least guards.

I'm not going to list everything here, but Muhl is below average to near last on the UConn team in almost every traditional and advanced statistical category available on HHS, from PPG to PER.

Other than for an average of one 3pt make per game, playing Muhl over Edwards or ONO is detrimental for everything from scoring, to rebounding, to total team defense. Individual defense on the perimeter is not as important as strong team defense in the paint, which includes defensive rebounding. ONO has become a very good passer, especially from the high post to Edwards low, and has the third most assists on the team after Bueckers and Westbrook.

UConn is going to be a lot tougher for Baylor to defend than Michigan was, both on the inside and outside. Baylor is going to be a much lesser threat to UConn from the arc than Iowa was. Stop Smith, Ursin and Carrington and you stop Baylor cold. Stop two of them and they will be crippled.

Smith is the only player where Baylor has a clear mano-a-mano advantage, however one matches up the five players.

Baylor will likely try the defensive usual on UConn: pack the paint and semi-dare UConn to make three's. UConn will have to make at least seven, preferably more. Therefore, Griffin, who has no outside shot, is likely to be brought in only for spot defensive purposes, perhaps on Smith or Carrington. For this same reason, the long-enfeebled Makurat may get minutes in the hope that she can hit from the arc.

UConn should be favored, in my opinion, but they got clobbered by Kim the last two times (if I recall correctly) and they certainly can lose again if they go cold from the outside and Smith has another supernatural scoring game.
singinerd54



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm not on the Nika train, and agree with your assessment that Edwards and ONO should be in the game over her. I mentioned her because of how competitive and physical I think she and Didi would have gotten with each other.

Christyn and Evina need to continue to be aggressive and hunt their own shots.


singinerd54



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
UConn should be favored, in my opinion, but they got clobbered by Kim the last two times (if I recall correctly) and they certainly can lose again if they go cold from the outside and Smith has another supernatural scoring game.


We have lost the last two games to Baylor. In both, we shot 29% from the field. I'll stand on the sturdy limb and say if that happens again, we will experience the same result.


huskiemaniac



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 7:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Imo, Muhl's most valuable asset is giving Bueckers more opportunity to play off the ball.


mercfan3



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 7:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

huskiemaniac wrote:
Imo, Muhl's most valuable asset is giving Bueckers more opportunity to play off the ball.


She brings a lot, but being an additional ball handler is certainly one of them.

Iowa pressed Uconn, and the result was Bueckers had several unusual turnovers.

We're gonna need her to win a championship. Period.



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ucbart



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 8:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

huskiemaniac wrote:
Imo, Muhl's most valuable asset is giving Bueckers more opportunity to play off the ball.


I agree and I'm super bummed she won't be able to play. With that being said though, if she does play, who, of the 5 starters would sit? I would rather have E and CW on the floor as much as possible tonight because their upperclassmen. I mean, Christyn had fantastic E8 and FF games in 2019, so she knows the pressure in these moments and E is just more emotionally able to handle these moments being that she is 22. So, that leaves sitting Alliyah more than she should ever sit in a game like this, especially against this Baylor team. The only thing I like about Alliyah coming off the bench is that it gives us about 3-4 minutes at the start of each half where she can't pick up a foul.

Last year we hung with Baylor for a little over 3 quarters and then wheels fell off the bus. It was very tough to watch as the air, little by little, left the XL Center. We got slaughtered on the boards-Kyla Irwin played 32 minutes and ONO only played 23. I will take AE for 32 minutes in this game.

The thing that makes me most nervous is that Paige seems to be playing with nerves. She just hasn't looked herself and I think the pressure is getting to her. Combine that with Baylor's imposing size, physicality, and style of play, their experience....and how young we are, I just don't see an outcome where UCONN wins this game.


Tally24



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 9:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So, I have a night class from 6:30-9:20. Should I:

A. Skip class and watch the game live.
B. Watch the game during class.
C. Record the game, go to class like normal, and watch after.
D. Drive home to Texas and go to the Alamo Dome.
GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 10:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

huskiemaniac wrote:
Imo, Muhl's most valuable asset is giving Bueckers more opportunity to play off the ball.


I disagree with this.

My view is that Bueckers is a much more effective scorer, distributor and play-setter-upper both for the team and herself when she is in control of the ball -- rather than when she is cutting and running around off the ball, too often fruitlessly waiting for someone to pass it to her at the right moment.

Stated differently, the team offense is better off when Paige is in charge of passing to someone else to score or to score herself off the bounce or two-man game, than when some one else (such as Muhl) is in charge of passing to Paige and doing all those other things less effectively with the ball that Paige can.

Finally, if I really wanted Paige to play off the ball, I would much rather have Westbrook playing or sharing the point with Paige than Muhl. Evina's a much more talented, skilled and experienced player.

It is an interesting topic to discuss. Hopefully, Azzi Fudd will moot the topic next season by being a superior guard to everyone other than Paige.
GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 10:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Tally24 wrote:
So, I have a night class from 6:30-9:20. Should I:

A. Skip class and watch the game live.
B. Watch the game during class.
C. Record the game, go to class like normal, and watch after.
D. Drive home to Texas and go to the Alamo Dome.


C. The only thing you'll miss then is realtime RebKell/social media banter. If those things are high life priorities to you, ignore my anachronistic opinions if you haven't already.
pilight



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 10:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
I just don't see an outcome where UCONN wins this game.


As long as Geno's the coach, there gonna be a chance for UConn to win every game they play.

Baylor is definitely a level up from anybody they've played this season and the Bears won't be intimidated by the UConn mystique. OTOH, the Hussies have blown the doors off of them every time they've met in the tournament. Wink



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singinerd54



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 11:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
I just don't see an outcome where UCONN wins this game.

Interestingly, after watching the Sweet Sixteen, it's hard for me to imagine Baylor winning. I don't see where they have enough scoring, given Egbo and Richards are quite deficient offensively. Having watched UConn underperform in big games (particularly recently), I certainly won't be surprised if Baylor wins, but I think it would have to be a low-scoring game for that to occur.


pilight wrote:
Baylor is definitely a level up from anybody they've played this season

You think Baylor is a full level up from South Carolina?


myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 12:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If UConn gets the same well rounded production they got in the last game, they will win the national championship. Baylor will be swatted aside like a nasty fly. OTOH if that game was an anomaly then we should be in for a game. I would actually put Williams on DiDi and I think she will have 10 steals.


undersized_post



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 12:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Was UConn's well rounded offense against Iowa due to UConn playing really well or Iowa's defense just being bad and giving skilled players (or players Iowa had mismatches with) easy looks? I think Baylor's defense will make this one a grind.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

undersized_post wrote:
Was UConn's well rounded offense against Iowa due to UConn playing really well or Iowa's defense just being bad and giving skilled players (or players Iowa had mismatches with) easy looks? I think Baylor's defense will make this one a grind.


The thing is, I don't think they got that kind of production all year against teams a lot worse than Iowa. But then I didn't see a lot of those games, so may be wrong. I'm sure if I'm wrong, the UConn fans will be sure to tell me about it. Very Happy

I expect UConn to win by 15-20.


mercfan3



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
huskiemaniac wrote:
Imo, Muhl's most valuable asset is giving Bueckers more opportunity to play off the ball.


I agree and I'm super bummed she won't be able to play. With that being said though, if she does play, who, of the 5 starters would sit? I would rather have E and CW on the floor as much as possible tonight because their upperclassmen. I mean, Christyn had fantastic E8 and FF games in 2019, so she knows the pressure in these moments and E is just more emotionally able to handle these moments being that she is 22. So, that leaves sitting Alliyah more than she should ever sit in a game like this, especially against this Baylor team. The only thing I like about Alliyah coming off the bench is that it gives us about 3-4 minutes at the start of each half where she can't pick up a foul.

Last year we hung with Baylor for a little over 3 quarters and then wheels fell off the bus. It was very tough to watch as the air, little by little, left the XL Center. We got slaughtered on the boards-Kyla Irwin played 32 minutes and ONO only played 23. I will take AE for 32 minutes in this game.

The thing that makes me most nervous is that Paige seems to be playing with nerves. She just hasn't looked herself and I think the pressure is getting to her. Combine that with Baylor's imposing size, physicality, and style of play, their experience....and how young we are, I just don't see an outcome where UCONN wins this game.


I'd sit ONO, and I'm not shy about that one. I'd expect Geno to sit Edwards though. Probably for consistency sake..or for consistency purposes, bring Nika off the bench. I'm confident with just Griffin for this game, so having her off the bench wouldn't be bad either.

I actually am starting to question Edwards endurance a little. She plays very hard, and Geno subs her a lot when he shouldn't..again, last game..if he wanted to try Anna, the obvious sub was ONO, not Edwards...and yet Edwards sat. So I wonder if she's a go hard but needs breaks (perhaps gets tired and fouls?) kind of player..

It's Paige's first tournament, she's not superwoman...but some of what we expect of her is...crazy. Last game, we'd all have said she had a "meh" game, but she had 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists...that best game of someone's career numbers, and we're unimpressed. I think if we're in trouble, she'll show up..I'm actually a bit nervous of Edwards rather than Paige. She's been almost too efficient - like..due for a bad game..efficient.

But I also think balance is key. Paige and Edwards are going to have to show up. One of Williams and Evina will too. I don't expect ONO to do much, but if she's solid, that's a plus for us.



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ucbart



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
If UConn gets the same well rounded production they got in the last game, they will win the national championship. Baylor will be swatted aside like a nasty fly. OTOH if that game was an anomaly then we should be in for a game. I would actually put Williams on DiDi and I think she will have 10 steals.


This is my hope, that Didi not being an actual PG, will struggle against us because we defend so well. Does Baylor play in transition well? I know NaLyssa Smith does, but I wonder how their lack of a PG does with breaking a press?


ucbart



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
undersized_post wrote:
Was UConn's well rounded offense against Iowa due to UConn playing really well or Iowa's defense just being bad and giving skilled players (or players Iowa had mismatches with) easy looks? I think Baylor's defense will make this one a grind.


The thing is, I don't think they got that kind of production all year against teams a lot worse than Iowa. But then I didn't see a lot of those games, so may be wrong. I'm sure if I'm wrong, the UConn fans will be sure to tell me about it. Very Happy

I expect UConn to win by 15-20.


The improvement this team has made since that Arkansas game is crazy...and even more so since South Carolina. I think CW has to shoot well and have at least 17-22ppg the rest of the way for us to win. She is the key, IMO. That, and continued offensive production in the paint.


Rock Hard



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 1:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Baylor might lose to UCONN. But the game being a blowout in favor of UCONN I don't think will happen. Baylor's defense is too good to get blown off the floor by any team. UCONN would have to score 15 or more three point baskets to blow Baylor out.



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Last edited by Rock Hard on 03/29/21 6:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
huskiemaniac



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 2:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Re Muhl, I didn't say I'd start her in this game were she available. Nor did I say the offense is at its best when she's at the point.

I stated that I think that is her best asset.

I LOVE the starting lineup since Edwards has been inserted. At the start of the season, this is what I'd hoped it would evolve into- that Edwards would prove to be worthy of starting and thus would give us the size we've lacked for a long time. Sure, Geno would probably NOT start Edwards if Muhl could play, but it wouldn't be the 1st time he was a moron. Wink

I agree with UCbart re' Bueckers. I think she's showing some wear and tear lately, and it shouldn't be a surprise, imo. She's been doing it all, all year long, and the kid isn't built like a brick shithouse.

If this team can pull off the win tonight, I'll be happy, somewhat surprised, and very grateful.


linkster



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 2:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
undersized_post wrote:
Was UConn's well rounded offense against Iowa due to UConn playing really well or Iowa's defense just being bad and giving skilled players (or players Iowa had mismatches with) easy looks? I think Baylor's defense will make this one a grind.


The thing is, I don't think they got that kind of production all year against teams a lot worse than Iowa. But then I didn't see a lot of those games, so may be wrong. I'm sure if I'm wrong, the UConn fans will be sure to tell me about it. Very Happy

I expect UConn to win by 15-20.



Possible but not likely unless Baylor implodes and that will only happen if Smith is out of the game. I said before the brackets came out that I didn't think Baylor could beat UConn. Their outside game is Ursin and she is more of a driver. They are big and strong inside but so is UConn (for a change) They wore out UConn last year with Cox, Smith and Egbo against ONO and Irwin. This year it's Smith & Egbo vs, ONO & Edwards. So far Edwards is playing at a MOP level. Better maybe than Stewart played in her freshman NCAA's, up to this point. Now the real playing starts. I've always held that if you are relying on freshmen in the final four you are on thin ice and UConn would have 3. That's the only concern I have with UConn losing tonight.


ucbart



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 2:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Tally24 wrote:
So, I have a night class from 6:30-9:20. Should I:

A. Skip class and watch the game live.
B. Watch the game during class.
C. Record the game, go to class like normal, and watch after.
D. Drive home to Texas and go to the Alamo Dome.


D


root_thing



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 3:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
If UConn gets the same well rounded production they got in the last game, they will win the national championship.


Myrtle with the reverse jinx. Admit it, you know Stanford is a juggernaut! Smile


I actually think UConn has looked better in the last two games than they have all season. Yes, they've won some Big East games by wider margins, but it's one thing to beat someone when you play well and another to beat them because they're not very good. If you're a UConn fan, you hope the Huskies are peaking at the right time.



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singinerd54



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 3:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
The thing is, I don't think they got that kind of production all year against teams a lot worse than Iowa. But then I didn't see a lot of those games, so may be wrong. I'm sure if I'm wrong, the UConn fans will be sure to tell me about it. Very Happy

I expect UConn to win by 15-20.

Surprised Surprised Surprised We're such a humble, unopinionated bunch, wheresoever did you get this idea?! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

I've watched most of our games. I don't recall a game where both Christyn and Evina have been that on. Put another way, if they got a game rating out of 10 for each game, the game against Iowa was likely their highest combined score of the year.


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