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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/22/21 11:07 pm    ::: Tournament Comparison Reply Reply with quote



UPSET = Any lower seed winning
BIG UPSET = Upset in which the teams are more than four seeds apart
CLOSE GAME = Any game decided by single digits or in OT
BLOWOUT = Any game decided by 20+ points

Note that this does not include the men's play-in games. This is Round of 64 vs Round of 64.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/24/21 10:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 03/26/21 11:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Pilight, do you have easy access to what the women did year-to-year? Have there been more upsets this year, more closer games, fewer blowouts? Anything to say that neutral courts really do make a difference? Anything to show that the women's tourney is ready for all neutral courts?

I can go back and dig up the info from previous years and start another thread if you don't have it, but I thought that you might have it handy (like all of your stats seem to be).

Thanks.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/27/21 8:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:
Pilight, do you have easy access to what the women did year-to-year? Have there been more upsets this year, more closer games, fewer blowouts? Anything to say that neutral courts really do make a difference? Anything to show that the women's tourney is ready for all neutral courts?

I can go back and dig up the info from previous years and start another thread if you don't have it, but I thought that you might have it handy (like all of your stats seem to be).

Thanks.


Try here:

http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?p=1568092#1568092



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 03/27/21 10:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Ex-Ref wrote:
Pilight, do you have easy access to what the women did year-to-year? Have there been more upsets this year, more closer games, fewer blowouts? Anything to say that neutral courts really do make a difference? Anything to show that the women's tourney is ready for all neutral courts?

I can go back and dig up the info from previous years and start another thread if you don't have it, but I thought that you might have it handy (like all of your stats seem to be).

Thanks.


Try here:

http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?p=1568092#1568092


Thanks. I'll take a look at it tonight when I get home. Will be much easier there than on my phone.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 10:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote



It's worth noting that 14 big upsets is already a record for the men's tournament



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/30/21 11:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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PostPosted: 03/31/21 12:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For all the perpetual talk about how there's so much more "madness" that goes on in the men's Tournament, this year it'll almost certainly end up with either a 1 seed-vs-1 seed or a 1 seed-vs-2 seed Championship Game matchup (fwiw).



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purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 9:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Stormeo wrote:
For all the perpetual talk about how there's so much more "madness" that goes on in the men's Tournament, this year it'll almost certainly end up with either a 1 seed-vs-1 seed or a 1 seed-vs-2 seed Championship Game matchup (fwiw).


The "madness" is what leads up to that point. Most of the time you end up with a top 3 or 4 seed winning the whole thing. I believe the 19 upsets (15 being of the big variety) is where that comes into play. In fact, the USA Today wrote an article after it got down to the Sweet 16 about how this was the "maddest" year ever. A couple of the highlights:

1. 4 double digit seeds got to the Sweet 16. The record is 5, but that year, 3 of the 5 were 10 seeds. This year, all 4 are 11 or lower.
2. The cumulative total of the 16 teams that made it was 94. The previous high was 89.

An 11 seed, UCLA, played in the First Four and have now advanced to the Final Four.

The men's tournament was about as crazy as it has ever been. The cream usually rises to the top in the end every year. It's not the destination that provides the madness, it's the journey to that destination where it all happens. This year did not disappoint.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 9:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

purduefanatic wrote:
Stormeo wrote:
For all the perpetual talk about how there's so much more "madness" that goes on in the men's Tournament, this year it'll almost certainly end up with either a 1 seed-vs-1 seed or a 1 seed-vs-2 seed Championship Game matchup (fwiw).


The "madness" is what leads up to that point. Most of the time you end up with a top 3 or 4 seed winning the whole thing. I believe the 19 upsets (15 being of the big variety) is where that comes into play. In fact, the USA Today wrote an article after it got down to the Sweet 16 about how this was the "maddest" year ever. A couple of the highlights:

1. 4 double digit seeds got to the Sweet 16. The record is 5, but that year, 3 of the 5 were 10 seeds. This year, all 4 are 11 or lower.
2. The cumulative total of the 16 teams that made it was 94. The previous high was 89.

An 11 seed, UCLA, played in the First Four and have now advanced to the Final Four.

The men's tournament was about as crazy as it has ever been. The cream usually rises to the top in the end every year. It's not the destination that provides the madness, it's the journey to that destination where it all happens. This year did not disappoint.


The women's game is simply not as deep in talent so there is less chance of major upsets. The top teams are, relative to the men, much better than the next level down.



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purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 9:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
purduefanatic wrote:
Stormeo wrote:
For all the perpetual talk about how there's so much more "madness" that goes on in the men's Tournament, this year it'll almost certainly end up with either a 1 seed-vs-1 seed or a 1 seed-vs-2 seed Championship Game matchup (fwiw).


The "madness" is what leads up to that point. Most of the time you end up with a top 3 or 4 seed winning the whole thing. I believe the 19 upsets (15 being of the big variety) is where that comes into play. In fact, the USA Today wrote an article after it got down to the Sweet 16 about how this was the "maddest" year ever. A couple of the highlights:

1. 4 double digit seeds got to the Sweet 16. The record is 5, but that year, 3 of the 5 were 10 seeds. This year, all 4 are 11 or lower.
2. The cumulative total of the 16 teams that made it was 94. The previous high was 89.

An 11 seed, UCLA, played in the First Four and have now advanced to the Final Four.

The men's tournament was about as crazy as it has ever been. The cream usually rises to the top in the end every year. It's not the destination that provides the madness, it's the journey to that destination where it all happens. This year did not disappoint.


The women's game is simply not as deep in talent so there is less chance of major upsets. The top teams are, relative to the men, much better than the next level down.


Yep. Felt that was a given and well-known. That is the battle the women's game has been fighting for several years now.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 9:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The men usually (but not always) have more upsets, though the gap has been closing in recent years. Only once (2007) have the women managed more big upsets.

The 15 big upsets for the men this year is a record high. The old record was 13, set in 1985 and matched in 2014.



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undersized_post



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 10:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FWIW, I feel that Texas beating Maryland should qualify as a "big upset" even though they were not more than 4 seeds apart. The seeds don't always tell the whole story.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 10:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

undersized_post wrote:
FWIW, I feel that Texas beating Maryland should qualify as a "big upset" even though they were not more than 4 seeds apart. The seeds don't always tell the whole story.


I needed an objective measure and over four was the most favorable break point for the women the year I started using "big upsets" (2009). Before that I had just done upsets, which were often quite close. Then CamrnCrz1974 noted that many of the women's upsets were just one seed apart ( 8/9 and 5/4 especially ). Then I went back and did historical data.



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PUmatty



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 12:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

purduefanatic wrote:
ClayK wrote:
purduefanatic wrote:
Stormeo wrote:
For all the perpetual talk about how there's so much more "madness" that goes on in the men's Tournament, this year it'll almost certainly end up with either a 1 seed-vs-1 seed or a 1 seed-vs-2 seed Championship Game matchup (fwiw).


The "madness" is what leads up to that point. Most of the time you end up with a top 3 or 4 seed winning the whole thing. I believe the 19 upsets (15 being of the big variety) is where that comes into play. In fact, the USA Today wrote an article after it got down to the Sweet 16 about how this was the "maddest" year ever. A couple of the highlights:

1. 4 double digit seeds got to the Sweet 16. The record is 5, but that year, 3 of the 5 were 10 seeds. This year, all 4 are 11 or lower.
2. The cumulative total of the 16 teams that made it was 94. The previous high was 89.

An 11 seed, UCLA, played in the First Four and have now advanced to the Final Four.

The men's tournament was about as crazy as it has ever been. The cream usually rises to the top in the end every year. It's not the destination that provides the madness, it's the journey to that destination where it all happens. This year did not disappoint.


The women's game is simply not as deep in talent so there is less chance of major upsets. The top teams are, relative to the men, much better than the next level down.


Yep. Felt that was a given and well-known. That is the battle the women's game has been fighting for several years now.


I am not sure it's a battle that they should be fighting. The Men's tournament is "fun" when you see the upsets, but it's not good for actually identifying the best teams and featuring those match-ups.

What's a more preferable outcome for a tournament: Overall No. 1 seed Stanford facing South Carolina in the semi-finals or overall No. 1 seed Gonzaga facing UCLA?


purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 12:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
I am not sure it's a battle that they should be fighting. The Men's tournament is "fun" when you see the upsets, but it's not good for actually identifying the best teams and featuring those match-ups.

What's a more preferable outcome for a tournament: Overall No. 1 seed Stanford facing South Carolina in the semi-finals or overall No. 1 seed Gonzaga facing UCLA?


Other than UCLA, you have 2 No 1 seeds and a No 2 (Houston). The upsets are what makes it fun to watch. Who the hell wants chalk all the way through??

I think UCLA has earned the right to still be playing given the gauntlet they just went through to get there. They have played 5 games in 12 days and won them all. I happen to LOVE the fact that they got through to the Final Four. They are a team that had a rough patch at the end of the regular season only to rebound and are playing arguably their best basketball.

Besides, it's been pretty obvious that Gonzaga was the best team in men's hoops this year for the past few months. Baylor is a close second and then you had several teams like Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio State, Alabama, etc that all looked like challengers but couldn't live up to expectations.

Does anybody think Arizona has a prayer in beating UConn? Is it good that NC State got upset in the Sweet 16?


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 12:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

purduefanatic wrote:
Does anybody think Arizona has a prayer in beating UConn? Is it good that NC State got upset in the Sweet 16?


Arizona has as good a chance of beating UConn as NC State would have



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 1:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
purduefanatic wrote:
Does anybody think Arizona has a prayer in beating UConn? Is it good that NC State got upset in the Sweet 16?


Arizona has as good a chance of beating UConn as NC State would have


Maybe, but that really wasn't even the point of my comment.


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PostPosted: 03/31/21 1:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think there is sexism involved when people criticize NCAAW for lack of parity and praise NCAAM for having more upsets. If the situation were reversed (that is, if the women's side had more upsets than the men's) I think the same haters would frame it as, "There's not even really elite talent on the women's side because the so-called top teams aren't even that good."

These things are all about how you frame them. And certain people will always find a way to justify their belief that women are "less than." Especially in domains that are traditionally considered masculine, like athletics.

p.s. I'm not leveling an accusation of sexism at anyone on this board---not at all. I'm just speaking in general terms about society.

p. p. s. Certain sports are exceptions, like gymnasitcs, figure skating, etc. For example, Simone Biles isn't considered by some to be the GOAT because her moves are too powerful, too athletic, not enough 'grace.' AKA she's too 'masculine' for a domain that is traditionally feminine. (That's not my belief--I'm just paraphrasing an argument I've heard.) These things are so arbitrary.


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PostPosted: 03/31/21 2:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I started tracking so it could be discussed with actual data rather then just anecdotes and gut feelings. You can use it to support whatever viewpoint you wish.



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PostPosted: 04/03/21 10:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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PostPosted: 04/05/21 10:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote



Lowest scoring women's tournament since 2010. 90 point games are lowest since 2012. 80 point games are lowest since 2013.

Men had a record high in big upsets. Previous record was 13, set in 1985 and tied in 2014. Close games are lowest since 2009. 100 point games matches the record low set in 1939 and tied many times, most recently in 2019.



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PostPosted: 04/05/21 10:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Historical perspective on the women's tournament




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PostPosted: 04/06/21 7:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Historical perspective on the men's tournament



NOTE: The numbers here do include the play in games, so they are slightly different than the numbers in the direct comparison.



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PostPosted: 04/06/21 1:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It's pretty clear the gap between the elite teams and the bottom part of the bracket is much bigger in the women's game.

I don't know what that means exactly, but it seems to be consistently true.



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