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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 03/14/21 9:35 pm    ::: COVID-19 variants Reply Reply with quote

HEALTHCARE Explained: The 3 Major COVID-19 Variants




'Covid is taking over': Brazil plunges into deadliest chapter of its epidemic

Quote:
But the doctor suspected a third, more troubling element was also at work: an enigmatic and apparently more contagious variant called P1 that is thought to have emerged in the Amazon region in late 2020 but is now circulating across Brazil, including in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where Machado works.


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/15/21 2:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

We’ve got one case of P1 in Riverside County.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 03/15/21 2:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
We’ve got one case of P1 in Riverside County.


I am reminded of when we had one case of COVID-19 in Washington state.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/15/21 4:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Latest estimates are that 30-50% of new COVID cases in the US are due to a variant. In addition to those in the diagram, the US has already produced at least seven of its own variants...ones in CA, OH, NYC, and I forget the other areas. Increasing variant cases is theoretically the reason that we've been plateaued at 50-60K new cases per day for the past month despite vaccinating a lot of people...there are fewer people that are susceptible to the disease but the disease is spreading more rapidly in the non-immune.


tfan



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PostPosted: 03/15/21 8:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine created antibodies are showing effectiveness against UK and Brazil variants, similar to the effectiveness over "standard" virus. It had effectiveness against the South African variant, but was some amount lower than against the others.

They show this list of variant infections in USA, but it has to be much higher since I don't think they are testing every case for a variant:

* B.1.1.7 (UK): 3,037 cases in 49 jurisdictions
* B.1.351 (South Africa): 81 cases in 20 jurisdictions
* P.1 (Brazil): 15 cases in 9 jurisdictions

It is said that P.1 is showing re-infection in Brazil that has people concerned.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZhfwWGBoJW4" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


DivaORcat16



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PostPosted: 03/16/21 12:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Brazil variant has been found in our small city in Oregon. One case of a person who traveled alone to Brazil for business. Why the heck aren't all travelers quarantined? Seriously. If you want to fricken go to another country or come to the U.S., strict quarantine should be mandatory. It should have happened at the beginning of the pandemic.

What's the point of distancing and masks and all the shutdowns if uninhibited travel is open?


tfan



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PostPosted: 03/16/21 1:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

DivaORcat16 wrote:
The Brazil variant has been found in our small city in Oregon. One case of a person who traveled alone to Brazil for business. Why the heck aren't all travelers quarantined? Seriously. If you want to fricken go to another country or come to the U.S., strict quarantine should be mandatory. It should have happened at the beginning of the pandemic.

What's the point of distancing and masks and all the shutdowns if uninhibited travel is open?


Completely agree. It is bizarre that no one is saying that in national news.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/16/21 2:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
DivaORcat16 wrote:
The Brazil variant has been found in our small city in Oregon. One case of a person who traveled alone to Brazil for business. Why the heck aren't all travelers quarantined? Seriously. If you want to fricken go to another country or come to the U.S., strict quarantine should be mandatory. It should have happened at the beginning of the pandemic.

What's the point of distancing and masks and all the shutdowns if uninhibited travel is open?


Completely agree. It is bizarre that no one is saying that in national news.


The variant horse is already out of the barn and quarantines are too late for that particular issue, particularly since the US is developing its own variants. NYC B.1.526 was present in 27% of cases in NY in mid-Feb.
https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/03052021_covidupdate.html#anchor_Emergence%20


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/16/21 3:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Mutational variants are the normal state of affairs for any virus, especially as any sort of selection pressure is put on them. Just look at influenza. Variants were always in the cards and always will be. This was never one of the many unknowns about this coronavirus.

Since so much about this pandemic is bizarre and political, I find it semantically interesting that we can have UK, South African, Brazilian and NYC variants of what we're not supposed to call the China or Wuhan virus.
tfan



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PostPosted: 03/19/21 11:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
tfan wrote:
DivaORcat16 wrote:
The Brazil variant has been found in our small city in Oregon. One case of a person who traveled alone to Brazil for business. Why the heck aren't all travelers quarantined? Seriously. If you want to fricken go to another country or come to the U.S., strict quarantine should be mandatory. It should have happened at the beginning of the pandemic.

What's the point of distancing and masks and all the shutdowns if uninhibited travel is open?


Completely agree. It is bizarre that no one is saying that in national news.


The variant horse is already out of the barn and quarantines are too late for that particular issue, particularly since the US is developing its own variants. NYC B.1.526 was present in 27% of cases in NY in mid-Feb.
https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/03052021_covidupdate.html#anchor_Emergence%20


We have the past, present and future.

I first want someone to go on TV to talk about the past. To talk about the barn door being left open from the beginning. Point out over and over how bad the "infectious disease experts" were in dealing (really, NOT dealing) with this global pandemic. We can't have the same "can't ban or limit travel as it's too economically damaging or extreme and can't enforce a two week quarantine as it's too expensive " bozos in charge anymore. I was seeing stuff about doctors in China being reprimanded or punished by the local police for talking about a dangerous new virus in early January. So the American spy machine had to know what was happening. There was cellphone video posted online of a nurse having a nervous breakdown in a Wuhan hospital and of another asking why they were wheeling in more patients because "we already have three bodies in the hallway". And there was mainstream news coverage in late January of a city being locked down and then a state shut off from the rest of the country, as well as two temporary hospitals being built in Wuhan with a two-week deadline. And yet Fauci and company weren't calling for any action to stop it or limit it getting into the USA, nor calling for things to stop it from spreading internally between states inside the USA. Even as it spread easily around the country there wasn't any action to limit the local spread until the local spread had reached a certain level. On February 29th (11 days before the NBA ended their season) Fauci told the weekend Today Show that people didn't need to worry about going to malls or restaurants because the risk is still low "but that could change". Ya think?

There is
a) international travel bans and forced quarantine restrictions
and
b) INTRA-national travel bans and forced quarantine restrictions.

China did both (although they must have some holes because they are shown above as getting two of the three variants). That is how they mostly stopped the virus. The Worldometer graph of their daily cases can't really show them because they are so low now compared to what they originally were in early 2020.

There is the idea that "if you have one person in your country infected, no sense trying to stop more infected people coming in. But I think it will still spread faster and be harder to potentially control via contact tracing if you allow unchecked international travel since you are going to be introducing it to some additional amount of uninfected internal spots/people. But the real issue is that once you have some, you have to - with some exceptions involving quarantine at military bases or with regard to shipping - ban all internal inter-metro area travel. If airlines are "too big to fail", unlike bars, restaurants, amusement parks, movie theaters, arenas, etc., then bail them out and shut them down. Let the military run limited passenger flights in situations where the travel is necessary. China showed us how to successfully stop the spread of the virus internally. Zoom is available for people to meet without being in the same room. Other things like attending a funeral in person just have to be stopped in a global pandemic. The same vein that we decided that restaurants etc. should shutdown for months.

And for the future we need to stop letting variants come in. We may get one that is way worse than even the current crop, or worst of all: one that evades all current vaccines and that they struggle to try and come up with a booster shot for. At this point, whatever variant develops anywhere in the world outside of North Korea, it is guaranteed to hit the USA where it will then spread from sea to shining sea. All the while our "scientists" will give us briefings on how much it is spreading and how much we need to do locally to deal with this variant that originated on some other continent.


tfan



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 1:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The P.1 variant is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

Covid-19 Variant Rages in Brazil, Posing Global Risk

Quote:
The so-called P.1 strain, present in more than 20 countries and identified in New York last week, is up to 2.2 times more contagious and as much as 61% more able to reinfect people than previous versions of the coronavirus, according to a recent study.


Brazil doesn't have as many studies on the virus or the new variant, but doctors say that they are seeing more people who are not old, obese or with comorbidities getting "overwhelmed" by the virus which they attribute to P.1.

Quote:
Further alarming researchers, the P.1 variant itself has also already started to mutate, showing changes that could make it even more infectious, said Felipe Naveca, who led some of the first research into P.1 and works at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, a public health institution.




Last edited by tfan on 03/28/21 7:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 11:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
The P.1 variant is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

Covid-19 Variant Rages in Brazil, Posing Global Risk

Quote:
The so-called P.1 strain, present in more than 20 countries and identified in New York last week, is up to 2.2 times more contagious and as much as 61% more able to reinfect people than previous versions of the coronavirus, according to a recent study.


Brazil doesn't have as many studies on the virus or the new variant, but doctors say that they are seeing more people who are not old, obese or with commodities getting "overwhelmed" by the virus which they attribute to P.1.

Quote:
Further alarming researchers, the P.1 variant itself has also already started to mutate, showing changes that could make it even more infectious, said Felipe Naveca, who led some of the first research into P.1 and works at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, a public health institution.


Well, that's pretty scary!!



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 2:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The problem with both Brazil and the US is not getting enough people vaccinated quickly enough to eliminate a lot of potential cases before the virus had time to mutate. We need to get our house in order here so we can start helping Brazil and some other countries that need assistance. It would be nice if the lunatic running Brazil finally mandated masks and imposed a lockdown.


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 4:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ex-Ref wrote:
tfan wrote:
The P.1 variant is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

Covid-19 Variant Rages in Brazil, Posing Global Risk

Quote:
The so-called P.1 strain, present in more than 20 countries and identified in New York last week, is up to 2.2 times more contagious and as much as 61% more able to reinfect people than previous versions of the coronavirus, according to a recent study.


Brazil doesn't have as many studies on the virus or the new variant, but doctors say that they are seeing more people who are not old, obese or with commodities getting "overwhelmed" by the virus which they attribute to P.1.

Quote:
Further alarming researchers, the P.1 variant itself has also already started to mutate, showing changes that could make it even more infectious, said Felipe Naveca, who led some of the first research into P.1 and works at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, a public health institution.


Well, that's pretty scary!!


Yes and terrible. But if you want to be scared as in something to keep you up at night, watch this.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/81mEJ2Rph1Q" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 5:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How about a 2 sentence summary? Please?

News just said cases are up 12% in one week while air travel has returned to pre-COVID levels. We are so flipping stupid.


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 7:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
How about a 2 sentence summary? Please?


From me? ha. You didn't say pretty please.

And this video is an unpacking of another scientist’s theory that is so complicated that they both aren’t really sure of all the points the person is making.

But I’ll try to keep it short. Listen, I can't explain (or understand) cryptocurrencies or even regular personal finances but I've always been good with medical stuff so here we go.

It's a Danish scientist who is putting this together and the pier review process being what it is he doesn't want to wait so he's releasing his concerns before it's too late.

For the human race. Shocked

It goes like this. By pushing a vaccine out DURING an active pandemic instead of prophylactically when there is no active virus spread and you have time to build up immunity in the broader population you are creating a real time arms race between the virus and the human immune system. The virus adapts. It evolves. So it is exposed to the vaccine while it is active in great numbers and wherein natural selection and adaptation is such a part of its survival and with so many viruses living and adapting in so many human hosts, you are handing the virus exactly what it needs to learn how to circumvent our vaccines.

This is especially problematic in instances where the virus finds individuals who have been vaccinated but have not yet reached the point of full immunity. This isn't really that hard to understand. So if you're seven days out from either shot and you acquire the virus then the virus is looking at a half-formed (or less) version of a vaccine induced response from the immune system. So the vaccine can adapt.

And this scientist is basically saying that's what is going to happen and that the results will be a virus that we can't develop any vaccine for at all and a global catastrophe in terms of illness and death. Weinstein and Heather here aren't saying this is going to happen or that they think that this scientist is correct. But they are saying the scenario is plausible.

So you have two problems. But the first one is the one that's harder to understand maybe but more interesting and probably a lot more problematic. So many things are numbers games. Even selling vacuum cleaners door to door. You knock on 30 doors a day you starve. You knock on 300 doors a day and you sell two vacuum cleaners a day and you're good.

With SO many human beings with coronavirus active in their bodies worldwide, and so many variants, it presents so many opportunities for say a coronavirus to mutate into a version of itself that doesn't have the spiked proteins that the vaccine targets. And then it can spread because so many haven't been vaccinated.

Versus a mass vaccination effort prior to an outbreak like we've had wherein you have so many with immunity due to their vaccines that there's no or few vulnerable populations where the coronavirus can even find a host so even say an original version of the virus doesn't get a foothold in humans anywhere.

That's about as good as I can explain. I think I do a better job than these two, actually. But I only understand it based on their explanations. If they struggled with the original texts then I would be completely lost.

The bottom line is that this scientist would have us NOT vaccinating anyone while there's an active pandemic going on. Face the very dire consequences right now of so many deaths and build a natural and actual herd immunity. Sort of let the evolutionary processes work this out. Because... if we create a virus that has adapted to ignore our vaccines it may also be adapting to ignore the best efforts of our immune system and then we are facing, if not an existential threat, then something that is close to it.

Young people are also a huge problem. Because the virus doesn't make them sick, so many of them are actively exposing themselves as human hosts for this virus to sit down in and mutate into more virulent and contagious strains. They are really the reason for all the variants. They're the petri dish for the coronavirus worldwide. And, this part is just my opinion, it's just a matter of time before the virus learns how to make them sick, or instances wherein a young person does get sick with the virus, and that strain spreads and young people then start to die of COVID-19.

Don't hold me to much in this last paragraph. It's part what I'm hearing here from these two and other places.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 03/28/21 9:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
It's a Danish scientist who is putting this together and the pier review process being what it is he doesn't want to wait so he's releasing his concerns before it's too late.

Well, if they're only scrutinizing boat landings, we'll NEVER get anywhere. ( Razz Laughing)

In earnest, with all -- and I mean ALL -- that is happening around us, I can't wrap my head around it all anymore. I'm certainly still masking, distancing, etc. But having the vaccination, I feel a greatly diminished sense of anxiety.

Yeah, our country has messed up. Quite a bit. I certainly don't get the resumption of not quarantining overseas travelers. While we may be leading the globe in Covid numbers, we probably also lead the globe in transparency, such as it is. And I'll never be convinced that China's numbers are realistic -- they have a long history of illusional 'truth', and hiding so much. Add to that the fact that, as an authoritarian regime, they have much more control over their masses, who can't/won't go the good ol' arrogant American route: "yer not tellin' ME what to do!"

And so I simply go to my default setting: "We're all gonna die." Frankly, I'm more concerned about getting shot-up in my grocery store these days.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 9:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

"While we may be leading the globe in Covid numbers"

The night is young, Howee. I think we can all see at this point that the coronavirus isn't done with us as a species and that is looking like a catastrophe is either happening already (Brazil) or threatening as never before (India).


"an authoritarian regime, they have much more control over their masses, who can't/won't go the good ol' arrogant American route: "yer not tellin' ME what to do!"

This is what I balk at. Yes, this isn't wrong it's just not looking at the entire picture. I wish I could have had you with me during the last year as we drove around this city during the many stages of pandemic lockdown. People here are not ignorant. They're not 'ol. So many of them aren't even American. The word doesn't get out on these people, though, Howee. The news is full of the goobers wherever they exist in American. But you don't see or know anything about what has been going on in LA. All leading up to the second worst surge and death toll in America since the pandemic began.

I've said this so much I know you and others are sick of hearing it from me. But you can't know what you're not seeing here in California. If you don't see it or even know about it then you can't know what it means or factor it into your perspective.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
insidewinder



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 10:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So the dude thinks we should not vaccinate until everyone has been infected and millions more are dead??? That does not seem helpful. There are a whole lot of viruses around, they mutate, and we do not generally see viruses that mutate such that it is impossible to stop them. Viruses often mutate to be less virulent because it is better for the virus if they just make people sick rather than kill them. The 1918 flu is still around, just mutated to be less virulent over time. Easier to spread if your host doesn't die before you can jump to someone else.

They adjust the flu vaccines yearly for whatever mutant they think will be prevalent. Seems to me a lot of fear mongering for no purpose. Not vaccinating until there is no pandemic seems ridiculous to me. Scary mutants can arise just as easily when nobody is vaccinated as long as the virus is around. Simply not vaccinating and waiting does not solve the problem of mutants. The fewer infections, the fewer chances for the virus to mutate. They can also easily tweak mRNA vaccines, they are maybe a game changer in that respect.


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/28/21 10:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, I definitely am not down with stopping vaccinations. However, it doesn’t mean the scenario he is warning of can’t or won’t happen. But we don’t know that it will happen and so we would have to make do with what we know.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
Luuuc
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PostPosted: 03/28/21 11:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, this whole mess we're in is because we allowed the virus to run rampant for so long in the first place. Every time the thing replicates, there's a chance it will mutate. Given how much the world has already allowed it to replicate, who knows how many different variants are floating around now. It is certainly orders of magnitude higher than it needed to be. So thanks a bunch to the 90+% of countries that completely half-arsed their responses.

The mutation mechanism occurs with or without a vaccine present. So IMO it is a tad over-the-top to try to paint a vaccine rollout in the middle of a pandemic as a bad thing.
But it's true that the more viruses are out there still spreading & replicating, the more of them will slip through the flimsy vaccine net we've got atm. And if people keep acting like everything is back to normal just because some insufficient portion of the population is vaccinated, then the natural result is simply that we end up with a world population of Covid viruses that are immune to the vaccines. Covid natural selection FTW.

Hopefully they're still effective enough to keep a lid on fatalities and severe symptoms. I think that's about the best we can hope for now.
Instead of wiping it out like we could and should have, we've likely created another influenza for the world, where the best we can do is partially protect some people from it.

Kinda makes me wonder how many more of these viruses we'll have a few decades from now. I've always said that the world is already overpopulated. Maybe mother nature agrees and is in the process of rectifying the situation.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 11:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Yeah, this whole mess we're in is because we allowed the virus to run rampant for so long in the first place. Every time the thing replicates, there's a chance it will mutate. Given how much the world has already allowed it to replicate, who knows how many different variants are floating around now. It is certainly orders of magnitude higher than it needed to be. So thanks a bunch to the 90+% of countries that completely half-arsed their responses.

The mutation mechanism occurs with or without a vaccine present. So IMO it is a tad over-the-top to try to paint a vaccine rollout in the middle of a pandemic as a bad thing.
But it's true that the more viruses are out there still spreading & replicating, the more of them will slip through the flimsy vaccine net we've got atm. And if people keep acting like everything is back to normal just because some insufficient portion of the population is vaccinated, then the natural result is simply that we end up with a world population of Covid viruses that are immune to the vaccines. Covid natural selection FTW.

Hopefully they're still effective enough to keep a lid on fatalities and severe symptoms. I think that's about the best we can hope for now.
Instead of wiping it out like we could and should have, we've likely created another influenza for the world, where the best we can do is partially protect some people from it.

Kinda makes me wonder how many more of these viruses we'll have a few decades from now. I've always said that the world is already overpopulated. Maybe mother nature agrees and is in the process of rectifying the situation.


Luuuc hit pretty much all of the nails squarely on the head.

The reasoning of the Danish dude has already been voiced by many epidemiologists and ID docs, except they've gone full stop before saying we shouldn't vaccinate anyone. No vaccines mean everyone gets this virus sooner or later, and with a mortality rate of 3%, that's 230M dead, and maybe a billion with long-haul disease. Those losses would cripple whole nations and do far more to disrupt the global economy than another year of lockdowns.

It's infuriating to see Americans throw away another chance at controlling this disease so soon after the holiday partying debacle. The governors that just unleashed everyone need to be lined up and shot. How many people are going to bring more new variants back from spring break? Stupid, stupid, stupid.


Howee



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 3:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Kinda makes me wonder how many more of these viruses we'll have a few decades from now. I've always said that the world is already overpopulated. Maybe mother nature agrees and is in the process of rectifying the situation.


Maybe it's been addressed here before (and I just missed it) but, why do we no longer hear anything about the 1918 influenza? We know how deadly it was, and that it ran a course of several years, but....we never heard of it again, right? Why?? Is that scenario possible for Covid?



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 3:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Luuuc wrote:
Kinda makes me wonder how many more of these viruses we'll have a few decades from now. I've always said that the world is already overpopulated. Maybe mother nature agrees and is in the process of rectifying the situation.


Maybe it's been addressed here before (and I just missed it) but, why do we no longer hear anything about the 1918 influenza? We know how deadly it was, and that it ran a course of several years, but....we never heard of it again, right? Why?? Is that scenario possible for Covid?


You hear about it all the time. It's called "The Flu".



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PostPosted: 03/29/21 4:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Howee wrote:
Luuuc wrote:
Kinda makes me wonder how many more of these viruses we'll have a few decades from now. I've always said that the world is already overpopulated. Maybe mother nature agrees and is in the process of rectifying the situation.


Maybe it's been addressed here before (and I just missed it) but, why do we no longer hear anything about the 1918 influenza? We know how deadly it was, and that it ran a course of several years, but....we never heard of it again, right? Why?? Is that scenario possible for Covid?


You hear about it all the time. It's called "The Flu".


Okay. Then your implication is that Covid will also become a (relatively) non-lethal *bug* we'll just have to deal with in the way we do with influenza as a nuisance thing?

Does this mean the Spanish Influenza just mutated itself into a far less deadly pathogen?



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