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Parity decreasing? 4 teams bad for basketball?

 
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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/16/21 5:51 pm    ::: Parity decreasing? 4 teams bad for basketball? Reply Reply with quote

With the monster classes they are recruiting plus an additional year of eligibility given by the NCAA to all their current players, does any team have a reasonable chance to win the NC over the next five years other than Stanford, S. Carolina, UConn or Oregon?
myrtle



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PostPosted: 01/16/21 10:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

there's always some team(s) that surprise us... You can't overlook teams like Texas, Baylor, Tenn, Louisville, and maybe some others as well. The thing is, when transfers can move freely and play immediately you can never tell what might happen.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/16/21 11:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The parity is almost as bad as college football



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PickledGinger



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 1:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There's more parity now than there was during the Stewart era, by any metric. That was just one team at the top, which I've always argued was bad for the growth of the game overall. So, while its' still not good that there are 4 dominant program, its' at least marginally better than it has been for most of the last 2 decades, so I'm not complaining.

Heck, I remember when I fell in love with WBB around '00 and the (then) Pac 10 seemed to be lucky to get 2 teams in the tournament besides Stanford most years. So, being a fan of the Pac-12 since it was bad and seeing its progression as a league has been really fun for me and something that I do not take for granted.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 10:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

One major contributing factor to fewer elite teams is the shift of young elite female athletes from basketball to volleyball, soccer and other sports. Participation numbers in high school show this steady trend clearly, and with fewer elite athletes available, it's easier for a few top teams to corner the market.

And good players want to win and play with other good players, so there's a natural move to powerhouse teams. After all, how many players want to be a star on a mediocre team? Most are competitors (which is why they put in the time to be elite), and competitors like to win ...



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 10:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Double post ...



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 12:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think it's difficult to draw any conclusions about parity during this disrupted season and without seeing the impact of all the NCAA's new rules. Some of these teams that look loaded may have transfers galore in the next 2 years.


summertime blues



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 12:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You really can't draw any conclusions this year. Give it a rest.



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Phil



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 2:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
You really can't draw any conclusions this year. Give it a rest.


I agree.

A worthwhile subject in the future, but this is quite the one-off year.


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 4:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

True, there's such a tsunami of conversation about the current season overwhelming this forum, with about three posts a day, that we all should be too tired to discuss current recruiting and its impact on the future. So also, in the off season we should just let everything rest and shut down the entire WNBA forum.

I agree that having four elite teams is better for the sport than just having one, but the pattern of top recruits going to a small number of Power 5 schools plus UConn hasn't really changed much all century. We have had some ups and downs as to which schools are in the elite tier, which has at least added that kind of variety interest.
calbearman76



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 7:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I have no problem with the discussion.

I believe that the concentration of talent in those 4 schools may have to do with the restrictions on recruiting caused by Covid. I also agree with Clay that to the extent that there are fewer top athletes going into basketball that will tend to concentrate talent. But as to the particular top 4 teams, Tara and Geno won't be around that much longer and that will most likely shake things up.


linkster



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PostPosted: 01/17/21 9:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
True, there's such a tsunami of conversation about the current season overwhelming this forum, with about three posts a day, that we all should be too tired to discuss current recruiting and its impact on the future. So also, in the off season we should just let everything rest and shut down the entire WNBA forum.

I agree that having four elite teams is better for the sport than just having one, but the pattern of top recruits going to a small number of Power 5 schools plus UConn hasn't really changed much all century. We have had some ups and downs as to which schools are in the elite tier, which has at least added that kind of variety interest.


To me it isn't a rise in elite teams. In the past when UConn dominated there were usually 3 teams grouped below them. I's say it's a case of UConn sliding down to join the others more than a jump up from the others.
I do think that the 2024 class is loaded with exciting players and the 25 class kooks as good.


PickledGinger



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PostPosted: 01/18/21 2:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
I believe that the concentration of talent in those 4 schools may have to do with the restrictions on recruiting caused by Covid.


Well, this season's freshmen did sign their LOIs three months before the first COVID death (which was "only" 1 year and 8 days ago) so it really couldn't have effected this season at all.


tfan



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PostPosted: 01/18/21 3:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

4 teams who fans have a pre-season feeling that they could win it all sounds like the high water mark for women's college basketball. There have been a number of years when it seemed to be Connecticut and maybe one other.

I think the reason is that players normally put "how good is the women's basketball team" at the top of their college selection process. So the best players - the U16, U17, U18 National Team members, and the McDonald's All-American types, limit their school selections to a small number of highly talented teams. And typically will choose the best team where the coach is interested in them. An exception could be if they see a very talented underclassman at their position on the best team, or if they want to stay close to home.


Conway Gamecock



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PostPosted: 01/18/21 11:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
True, there's such a tsunami of conversation about the current season overwhelming this forum, with about three posts a day, that we all should be too tired to discuss current recruiting and its impact on the future. So also, in the off season we should just let everything rest and shut down the entire WNBA forum.

I agree that having four elite teams is better for the sport than just having one, but the pattern of top recruits going to a small number of Power 5 schools plus UConn hasn't really changed much all century. We have had some ups and downs as to which schools are in the elite tier, which has at least added that kind of variety interest.


The non-stop deluge of constant debate and discussion on this topic here seems to have made you irritable......


myrtle



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PostPosted: 01/24/21 4:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

well today we're seeing how just about any team can beat another, even the 'top' teams. I mean they have all been challenged today by teams you wouldn't think would have any chance whatsoever.



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taropatch



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PostPosted: 01/29/21 12:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
well today we're seeing how just about any team can beat another, even the 'top' teams. I mean they have all been challenged today by teams you wouldn't think would have any chance whatsoever.


After Thursday's results, ditto

Add UConn's scalp alongside Baylor's to Arkansas's trophies.



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 01/29/21 5:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Really, Glenn, your "concern" is misplaced.



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CBiebel



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PostPosted: 01/31/21 3:39 am    ::: Re: Parity decreasing? 4 teams bad for basketball? Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
With the monster classes they are recruiting plus an additional year of eligibility given by the NCAA to all their current players, does any team have a reasonable chance to win the NC over the next five years other than Stanford, S. Carolina, UConn or Oregon?


That's really premature view of the future given:

1. There's been a lot of transferring going on lately with the pipeline setup.

2. You never know about injuries.

3. You don't know who else will be recruited in future classes elsewhere yet.

I could see some predictions a year or two from now, but five years is actually a long time in college sports. Things can change. Take my team, ND, for instance.

In 1996 they had their first ever win in the NCAA Tournament. Five years later, they won a NC. From 2005-2010 ND only got as far as the Sweet Sixteen twice and some ND fans were wondering if McGraw couldn't take the team any farther and if 2001 was just a one time thing. Then ND went to seven straight Final Fours (four Championship game appearances) and eventually the 2018 NC.

Of course, the flip side for ND was last year, who was without Jackie Young (who left early), Erin Boley (Transferred), Ali Patberg (Transferred), Jordan Nixon (Tranferred), Danielle Patterson (Transferred) , and Abby Prohaska (out for season with blood clots in her lungs), all of whom would have been expected to have played that year if they stayed (or had been healthy). Anaya Peoples also missed about half of the season. Could you have predicted ND having a losing season for 2019-20 five years before that season. I bet few would have taken that bet.

ND currently has Westbeld (even better than we expected coming in), Miles, highly rated PG who is getting a jump start starting in the Syracuse game, and will have Citron coming in next year. Campbell showed some flash early on, but is currently buried behind more experienced players at her position while she transitions to the college game. That's a pretty strong nucleus for a team 3-4 years from now. Will Ivey figure out what it takes to be a top level head coach? Only time will tell.


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 01/31/21 3:39 am    ::: Re: Parity decreasing? 4 teams bad for basketball? Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
With the monster classes they are recruiting plus an additional year of eligibility given by the NCAA to all their current players, does any team have a reasonable chance to win the NC over the next five years other than Stanford, S. Carolina, UConn or Oregon?


That's really premature view of the future given:

1. There's been a lot of transferring going on lately with the pipeline setup.

2. You never know about injuries.

3. You don't know who else will be recruited in future classes elsewhere yet.

I could see some predictions a year or two from now, but five years is actually a long time in college sports. Things can change. Take my team, ND, for instance.

In 1996 they had their first ever win in the NCAA Tournament. Five years later, they won a NC. From 2005-2010 ND only got as far as the Sweet Sixteen twice and some ND fans were wondering if McGraw couldn't take the team any farther and if 2001 was just a one time thing. Then ND went to seven straight Final Fours (four Championship game appearances) and eventually the 2018 NC.

Of course, the flip side for ND was last year, who was without Jackie Young (who left early), Erin Boley (Transferred), Ali Patberg (Transferred), Jordan Nixon (Tranferred), Danielle Patterson (Transferred) , and Abby Prohaska (out for season with blood clots in her lungs), all of whom would have been expected to have played that year if they stayed (or had been healthy). Anaya Peoples also missed about half of the season. Could you have predicted ND having a losing season for 2019-20 five years before that season. I bet few would have taken that bet.

ND currently has Westbeld (even better than we expected coming in), Miles, highly rated PG who is getting a jump start starting in the Syracuse game, and will have Citron coming in next year. Campbell showed some flash early on, but is currently buried behind more experienced players at her position while she transitions to the college game. That's a pretty strong nucleus for a team 3-4 years from now. Will Ivey figure out what it takes to be a top level head coach? Only time will tell.


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 02/04/21 4:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
Really, Glenn, your "concern" is misplaced.


I'm not "concerned". Concern is an emotion, and I don't often have significant emotions about female basketball. It's just a niche pastime.

I start topics like these simply because I hope they can become reasonable or entertaining questions for group discussion. I may not personally be persuaded even if I make an "argument" on one side or another of a topic. Thus the question marks in the title.

Or, as another example, I might begin a topic arguing that Haley Jones should be POY, but could just as easily start a topic arguing that Paige Bueckers or Dana Evans should be POY. My personal opinion, much less my personal emotion, is not relevant to me when starting such a topic, and I may or may not voice my personal opinion of the various arguments or points of view. That's what I've been doing for more than 20 years on various FBB boards. You can tell when I'm giving my personal opinion: I'll say something like "it's my opinion" or "I believe".

As to the four programs I single out in my OP, for those who don't follow recruiting closely, they each have had several highly ranked recruits from the high school classes of the late teens and early '20's.

Perhaps a five year projection for these programs is too aggressive, and indeed we have had some interesting rankings and upsets this strange season. However, if I were a betting man, which I'm not, I'd take South Carolina, Stanford, UConn and Oregon against the field this season and next. That is my personal opinion. Currently.
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