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President - 2020 Election
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Who WILL Win Race for President
Biden
76%
 76%  [ 10 ]
Trump
23%
 23%  [ 3 ]
Total Votes : 13

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Ex-Ref



Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 9:24 am    ::: President - 2020 Election Reply Reply with quote

NOT who you want to win, who WILL win.

Let's see how we do vs. the rest of the nation and pollsters.

And, no, I'm not putting in an "other" choice.



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"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 11:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Definitely believe Trump wins a second term. It should be close. And much like 2016, we’ll likely know before we go to bed tonight.

One thing the media (mainstream and otherwise) is not covering as an issue at all in this election is, I believe, ironically, the main driver of what I think will be a Trump victory and that is not Covid or the economy. It’s the rioting, the unrest, the violent takeover of cities, the talk of defunding police, all of it. Enough people want to see law and order restored right now I think to elect Richard Nixon as president. We’ll see.

An interesting thing to watch is going to be California numbers for Trump. I’m also predicting a big increase there over 2016. Should impact popular vote results. Again. I can’t see the future. We don’t have long to wait now. Be well and stay safe. Honestly, it doesn’t matter all that much who is President right now.



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
J-Spoon



Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 12:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't want to get blind sided again but I believe Biden will win.

My theory without going too deeply in to politics is this

In 2016 there was a referendum on more of the same vs something new. Trump represented something new so besides his rabid base he also got a lot of independents who while they may not have liked him, like the idea of change over staying the same.

In 2016 many people thought Clinton would win, some people really didn't like Clinton, some people even thought the establishment rigged the election against Sanders and that brought turn out down among the left.

In 2020 the referendum is now against 4 years of Trump. While his base may be more passionate than ever many of the independent voters who decided to give him a chance have had buyers remorse. Combine that with Biden while maybe not driving the enthusiasm bus, is also not driving voters away in the way the Clinton may have, especially among the working class in the mid west. (full disclosure I personal don't have a problem with Hillary this is just my simplified perception/explanation of what I think happened and will happen).

In 2020 the left while maybe not energized by the specific candidate is super energized to get rid of Trump there will be huge turn out. Quite frankly there would be huge turn out from the left if the candidate was a broom with a sign that said not Trump. Actually that is pretty much what Biden is.

And finally while Trump will still get huge numbers from most of his base he will lose some of the independents who chose him as an unknown quantity over the known quantity in 2016 and he will also lose the Grandma vote. A lot of Grandma's were able to give him a pass on his quaint racism and sexism because they grew up in another time and it wasn't as shocking to them as the young left and they hated the Clinton's, but this is where the virus comes into play. Grandma doesn't feel safe going into town not because of unrest, but because she could catch a virus that could kill her, or her husband. Lots of Grandma's haven't seen their kids or Grand kids in months because it is too dangerous to come over. And lots of Grandma's who watch the news everyday trying to figure out what is going on with the virus and the leadership and messaging has been so poor that they can't take it anymore. They are literally being told by the government that their lives don't matter, and that nice Biden fellow looks like he cares and will try in a way that Trump has failed at. So while the virus might not be important to younger demographic the seniors do care and it is causing them turn on Trump in a way that all his other faults never did.

So in 2020 Trump losing some independents, losing some Grandmas, and the left being energized and united in 2020 to a fever pitch is why I think Biden will win.

(Because of this I have Biden winning back Penn, Mich and Minn., and possibly flipping Florida and Arizona as well getting him both the popular vote and close to 300 electoral college votes)

My other bleaker scenario is Biden picks up a lot of votes in places like TX and Georgia compared to Hillary, but not enough to win them and turn out in classically blue states like Cal, NY, NJ, MA etc is super high but Trump squeaks by in most of the swing states, maybe Biden flips Penn and Mich but Trump holds onto the rest leading to Biden winning the popular vote by almost 10 million but Trump winning the electoral college with say 272 to 268 which would be my nightmare, outside of a completely contested election the drags us into 2021 with no certain outcome.


Shades



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PostPosted: 11/03/20 3:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://youtube.com/embed/Rg4ldloe8EU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



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FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 6:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

We need a side poll asking how long it will be before we have official election results. Given the numbers of absentee ballots and the current chaos in our postal system, it could be days. The post office declined to perform the court-ordered sweep of their facilities for undelivered ballots this afternoon.


craigmont



Joined: 14 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 7:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Biden's polling has been consistently 52-54% with Trump consistently 42-44%. that's a whole different ballgame from 2016.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 11/03/20 7:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
So in 2020 Trump losing some independents, losing some Grandmas, and the left being energized and united in 2020 to a fever pitch is why I think Biden will win.


I'd have to agree, and even add some other factors:

1. RVAT. There cannot EVER have been an historical precedent where there have been so many registered Republicans who've vociferously come out and ripped *their* candidate, and endorsed the Dem. That's a BIG chunk o' people.

2. The Black demographic that chose to stay home 4 years ago are NOT feeling the same: way more of them are out voting.

3. I've seen it reported that the numbers of seniors ("Grandmas", etc.), suburban women and youth have switched gears in huge numbers. This is good for Biden. Remember: Hillary won 3M more votes than he did 4 years ago, and the people in this nation who voted for her last time, and are NOW voting for Donald? You can count 'em on 4 fingers, I'd bet. Add in a HUUGE voter turnout, that oughtta bode well for Joe, if the stars align and the improved numbers happen in the battleground states.

GO JOE BYE-DON! Cool



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 11/03/20 8:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

And Atlanta vote counting is being delayed by a burst pipe at State Farm Arena!

And the weirdness of 2020 continues!!!!



_________________
"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"If this guy can be Senator, you can do anything." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 11/03/20 8:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'd be shocked if Biden wins Michigan unless it's Detroit that carries him.

At one poll site, and I'm guessing others as well, there was a tent with people gathering signatures to recall Gov. Whitmer (D). LOTS of people are pretty pissed at her over COVID - 19 closings.



_________________
"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"If this guy can be Senator, you can do anything." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 9:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Right now the election looks so much different than 2016 because of early voting and mail in ballots.



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
J-Spoon



Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 10:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Florida be screwing up my prediction


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 11/03/20 10:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I’m calling this. Trump is re-elected.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 11/03/20 10:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Oh shit! Oh shit! oh shit!


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 11/03/20 11:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Maybe the Democrats should quit rigging their primaries to favor weak candidates



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Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 11/03/20 11:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I went to bed four years ago with Clinton leading and feeling pretty safe that I would wake up on Wednesday to the first woman president of the United States. I woke up in the middle of the night and turned on the TV to see that Trump was the projected winner.

Now I'm going to go to bed having no clue who is really leading. Sure, USAToday, CNN and Fox all have Biden projected to have 209, 192 and 223 electoral votes respectively, and Trump 118, 114 and 148 votes. I take no comfort in that. After all, I was one of the three to vote for Trump in this poll. 😢



_________________
"The biggest antidote to his poison is the vote.” — Nancy Pelosi

"Our democracy is designed to speak truth to power." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"If this guy can be Senator, you can do anything." — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Richard 77



Joined: 19 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 11/04/20 12:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Maybe the Democrats should quit rigging their primaries to favor weak candidates


If Biden loses, it won't be because weak Democratic candidates.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 12:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Not as confident in my early call for Trump. Still think he’ll win but I’m going to retract on that one. I needed some chips and dip to bring me to my senses. Wink



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 12:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richard 77 wrote:
pilight wrote:
Maybe the Democrats should quit rigging their primaries to favor weak candidates


If Biden loses, it won't be because weak Democratic candidates.


Well, I think that’s the whole issue in a nutshell. Can’t believe the ticket the Democrats put forth.



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 11/04/20 12:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wisconsin hasn’t counted any early votes yet. Keep that in mind. Early votes tend to favor democrats. That’s why autocrat Trump wants to stop counting the votes on election night. Pennsylvania might take until Thursday to be counted. Wish it wasn’t so close so Trump wouldn’t contest, that weasel.

Disappointed Graham has made it through.
Disappointed the Senate is leaning back to Republican control.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 12:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Biden to speak soon. This is now somewhat reminiscent of 2000. Except I had alcohol to lean on that night.



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
J-Spoon



Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: 11/04/20 1:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Its looking a little closer but

but Biden still has to win 2 of 3 of Wisc, Mich and Penn.

and hold onto Ariz and Nevada


taropatch



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 1:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
Its looking a little closer but

but Biden still has to win 2 of 3 of Wisc, Mich and Penn.

and hold onto Ariz and Nevada


Biden trails in all three of the above. By 14% points in his "home state", closer in the others. In a 4th state, NC, he trails by 75,000 votes. "Declining Joe" needs a miracle to pull this one out. I don't drink but am tempted to start.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 2:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I’m sleepier than Sleepy Joe himself. So my prediction of knowing the outcome before bedtime in California is a lost cause.



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 2:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Trumps remarks sometime he just can't get out of his own way, he is ahead in all of the remaining swing states could have just said "we are way ahead and we are going to win, wow would it be weird if we lost all of these huge leads" sort of setting up his talking points but instead he just jumped the shark said he won, the left is going to try and steal it now, and he wants all the counts to stop (technically he said all voting stopped but he meant counting because well at 215 am all voting had stopped so he meant all coating except in Arizona where he might catch up) and he'll take it to the Supreme Court. So instead of casting suspicion on the other side he now looks like the one trying to steal it, when he might just win it anyway. Welcome to the next few crazy days.

You know what he said is crazy when even the Fox News people were like "yeah he hasn't won yet, no one has called those states for him yet, he shouldn't declare victory and there are more votes to count." They actually seemed disappointed because it was looking like he was going to win anyway.


hyperetic



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PostPosted: 11/04/20 9:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The US has more shitty people than I realized.
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