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Trump Tests Positive For Coronavirus
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Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 10/06/20 11:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote
A timely look back at a 6/11 post in another thread by Calbearman:

calbearman76 wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
In this thread I will calculate from time to time the current death rates from coronavirus worldwide and in various countries. The data will be derived from the Johns Hopkins coronavirus website.

I have a tentative hypothesis that the worldwide death rate is currently distorted upwards by the huge numbers in China, which had grossly insufficient hospital space and likely has a medical system closer to third world than first world, and by Italy, which also has a shortage of hospital space.

The format will be Deaths/Confirmed Cases = Death Rate

As a reference point, the death rate for seasonal flu in the U.S. is about 0.10%.

____________________

Worldwide: 4,630/126,136 = 3.67%

(Editorial comment: Note that the worldwide deaths from CV are only ~20% of the >20,000 deaths from this season's flu in the U.S alone.)



Three months later it is a good time to look at your original assumptions. Clearly the severity of Covid-19 is far greater than what I believe you and many others believed 3 months ago. 115,000 deaths and about 1000 more each day. The deaths from Covid-19 are already more than 5 times the annual deaths from flu. There are many things we still don't really know but we are learning about the spread of the virus and while I believe a healthy skepticism combined with a willingness to learn from data.
............
If people would heed the warning I believe we could get back to a new normal with significantly less spread going forward. But science denial has stood in the way of dealing with this crisis. I believe your posts have been helpful in laying out data. Let's hope people can learn from it.


Now, four months later, we've just about doubled that 115K number. Shocked



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Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: 10/06/20 6:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote
Howee wrote:
A timely look back at a 6/11 post in another thread by Calbearman:

calbearman76 wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
In this thread I will calculate from time to time the current death rates from coronavirus worldwide and in various countries. The data will be derived from the Johns Hopkins coronavirus website.

I have a tentative hypothesis that the worldwide death rate is currently distorted upwards by the huge numbers in China, which had grossly insufficient hospital space and likely has a medical system closer to third world than first world, and by Italy, which also has a shortage of hospital space.

The format will be Deaths/Confirmed Cases = Death Rate

As a reference point, the death rate for seasonal flu in the U.S. is about 0.10%.

____________________

Worldwide: 4,630/126,136 = 3.67%

(Editorial comment: Note that the worldwide deaths from CV are only ~20% of the >20,000 deaths from this season's flu in the U.S alone.)



Three months later it is a good time to look at your original assumptions. Clearly the severity of Covid-19 is far greater than what I believe you and many others believed 3 months ago. 115,000 deaths and about 1000 more each day. The deaths from Covid-19 are already more than 5 times the annual deaths from flu. There are many things we still don't really know but we are learning about the spread of the virus and while I believe a healthy skepticism combined with a willingness to learn from data.
............
If people would heed the warning I believe we could get back to a new normal with significantly less spread going forward. But science denial has stood in the way of dealing with this crisis. I believe your posts have been helpful in laying out data. Let's hope people can learn from it.


Now, four months later, we've just about doubled that 115K number. Shocked

Just a bad flu season, right? A really really really really really bad one. Don't let it dominate your lives if you still have them.



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Stormeo



Joined: 14 Jul 2019
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PostPosted: 10/07/20 2:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote
And now the top Pentagon leaders are having to quarantine because one of them tested positive for coronavirus.

So now we have this, combined with a White House where the President himself is quarantining and much of the White House staff are having to quarantine at home.

If there were ever a time for this country's enemies to team up and strike us…………………………………………… hoo boy. Ya just know Putin was lookin' to send a parting gift to this country in the event that Biden is elected anyway.
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