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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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 Posted: 01/17/21 3:56 pm ::: |
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| Yeah, progress that they acknowledged the concept exists, I guess. But not just listing them was an odd choice. |
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade
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WNBA 09
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| Posted: 01/26/21 12:48 pm ::: |
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https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/30760885/wnba-free-agent-rankings-20-best-players-2021
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Betnijah Laney "
The WNBA's Most Improved Player didn't quite crack the top 20 because her below-replacement play prior to 2020 pulled down her projection. Whether her development as a 3-point shooter (making a career-high 30 at 41% accuracy) sticks will go a long way toward determining if Laney can maintain her growth |
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007
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| Posted: 01/26/21 1:14 pm ::: |
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| I know she's never done it before, but still, leaving Laney out of the top 20 free agents is ridiculous. She averaged 17.2 ppg on terrific .481/.405/.827 shooting, made the All-WNBA Defensive 1st Team, and at 27 is in the prime of her career. As far as I know, Betnijah has never had any off-court problems. She did have the ACL injury in 2016, but otherwise has been healthy. Laney checks all the boxes and is potentially the biggest steal out there.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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| Posted: 01/26/21 1:30 pm ::: |
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The brilliance of Megdal on display again.
| Quote: |
| Expect the price tag on Sykes to impact a similar player who broke out in 2020, Atlanta’s Betnijah Laney. Both are long guard/wing combos capable of helping their teams at both ends. Don’t be surprised to see Indiana go after them both. |
Yeah, Indiana is gonna go after a player they unceremoniously dumped (no trade involved because they had her signed.... DUMPED), and Laney would gladly oblige, right? Megdal is all too capable of bad takes.
My take... she’s staying with ATL, the team that gave her the opportunity to prove herself. Plus, ATL already said they were making her a priority.
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mavcarter
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ClayK
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| Posted: 01/26/21 1:41 pm ::: |
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| That would certainly shift the balance of power ...
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Shades
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Stormeo
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TDAO
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| Posted: 01/26/21 2:11 pm ::: |
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| root_thing wrote: |
| I know she's never done it before, but still, leaving Laney out of the top 20 free agents is ridiculous. She averaged 17.2 ppg on terrific .481/.405/.827 shooting, made the All-WNBA Defensive 1st Team, and at 27 is in the prime of her career. As far as I know, Betnijah has never had any off-court problems. She did have the ACL injury in 2016, but otherwise has been healthy. Laney checks all the boxes and is potentially the biggest steal out there. |
So, to be clear, the rankings are based on statistical projections and nothing about health or off-court issues would be a factor. It's strictly based on performance over the last three seasons and age.
There's no doubt Laney was one of the 20 best free agents *last season* (she was ninth in wins above replacement player among free agents, including Alyssa Thomas ahead of her). But the question we're trying to answer is how she'll play next season.
One way to check this idea would be to look at other players who have seen similar improvement at the same age. I looked for players between 26 and 28 whose per-minute player rating improved at least .125 from one season to the next (Laney's improved by .158). That yielded a group of 26 players prior to last season. Here's what we saw from them the following season:
| Code: |
Rating1 Rating2 Change Rating3 Change
.433 .599 .166 .544 -.055 |
This group certainly maintained a lot of their improvement, but not nearly all of it. If you apply that same drop-off to Laney's 2020 stats, she'd go from ninth in WARP among free agents to 16th. So I think it's reasonable that she'd be near the borderline of the top 20 when you add in the couple of players who didn't play last season.
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Stormeo
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mavcarter
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mavcarter
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pilight
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Michelle89
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mavcarter
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myrtle
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| Posted: 01/26/21 4:31 pm ::: |
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| For Laney, a lot of last year's success was opportunity. But I think maturity has been good for her as well. She also credited her time off with the ACL where she got to see more the coaching aspect of the game back at Rutgers and how to break down film. I would definitely include her in the top 20 FAs.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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| Posted: 01/26/21 4:43 pm ::: |
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| mavcarter wrote: |
| Michelle89 wrote: |
Also rumors that Seattle is interested in signing Allisha Gray. Hopefully just a rumor because else it might be a sign that Clark is not coming back  |
Atlanta and Vegas also in the mix.
If Atlanta has some truth to it, then here goes Colleen just talking to anybody and everybody because she has some cap room again.  |
The Dream really don't have that much room, especially if Laney comes back. Might require a Hayes or EWill trade to open up extra space if multiple people want to come (considering I doubt anyone's taking on Stricklen, even with only one year left). |
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mavcarter
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007
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| Posted: 01/26/21 5:30 pm ::: |
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| TDAO wrote: |
| root_thing wrote: |
| I know she's never done it before, but still, leaving Laney out of the top 20 free agents is ridiculous. She averaged 17.2 ppg on terrific .481/.405/.827 shooting, made the All-WNBA Defensive 1st Team, and at 27 is in the prime of her career. As far as I know, Betnijah has never had any off-court problems. She did have the ACL injury in 2016, but otherwise has been healthy. Laney checks all the boxes and is potentially the biggest steal out there. |
So, to be clear, the rankings are based on statistical projections and nothing about health or off-court issues would be a factor. It's strictly based on performance over the last three seasons and age.
There's no doubt Laney was one of the 20 best free agents *last season* (she was ninth in wins above replacement player among free agents, including Alyssa Thomas ahead of her). But the question we're trying to answer is how she'll play next season.
One way to check this idea would be to look at other players who have seen similar improvement at the same age. I looked for players between 26 and 28 whose per-minute player rating improved at least .125 from one season to the next (Laney's improved by .158). That yielded a group of 26 players prior to last season. Here's what we saw from them the following season:
| Code: |
Rating1 Rating2 Change Rating3 Change
.433 .599 .166 .544 -.055 |
This group certainly maintained a lot of their improvement, but not nearly all of it. If you apply that same drop-off to Laney's 2020 stats, she'd go from ninth in WARP among free agents to 16th. So I think it's reasonable that she'd be near the borderline of the top 20 when you add in the couple of players who didn't play last season. |
That extra explanation of what you did to project the numbers would have been helpful in the introduction. Still, I question the usefulness of a purely statistical approach. What fans want to know is how management is likely to rank the top free agents. The answer requires a more comprehensive process. I believe Laney is particularly enticing because she is a very good two-way player. Not only that, she is in her prime and has a decent health history. Yes, she has only put up one great year, but finding really good two-way players is hard. This is a league with only 144 slots. Serviceable two-way players and good one-dimensional players are easy to find. But that player who is very good on both sides of the court is rare. So, when you can potentially get one for free -- something that almost never happens -- then you have to be very interested. Think of how excited people get about the potential of college players. They've only "proven" themselves at an amateur level. Well, Laney is a bit older, but she has one year of proof at the pro level. How much more believable is that than college performance? Who would you rather roll the dice on and how much money would you be willing to risk on it?
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 01/26/21 6:08 pm ::: |
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| Cambage might be the #1 FA from a purely statistical standpoint, but she won't be highly sought after. There might be three teams she'd be willing to play for and no one would consider her a safe bet to show up in any given year. I don't see anyone mortgaging their future to acquire her.
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Rock Hard
Joined: 02 Aug 2010
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| Posted: 01/26/21 9:31 pm ::: |
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| Why would the Sky trade two young quality players for OLD Candace Parker? Candace is an UFA. If the Sky really want her all they have to do is sign her. They don't have to give up anything to get her.
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