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Guess How Many Players End Up Opting Out
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How many players opt out?
Less than 10
20%
 20%  [ 7 ]
10-19
45%
 45%  [ 16 ]
20-29
22%
 22%  [ 8 ]
30-39
5%
 5%  [ 2 ]
40-49
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
50-59
2%
 2%  [ 1 ]
60-69
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
70 or more (roughly half the League's players, or more)
2%
 2%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 35

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Stormeo



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PostPosted: 06/22/20 6:59 pm    ::: Guess How Many Players End Up Opting Out Reply Reply with quote

The deadline for players to opt-out is June 25th. At least four players have already opted out (Renee Montgomery, Jonquel Jones, Natasha Cloud, LaToya Sanders). And we just know there will be more.

We've seen Florida, amongst other states, rise dramatically in coronavirus cases. We've also seen a renewed focus on the advancement/equality of Black people in our society/the world. Will factors like these weigh heavily enough on players' minds to sit out?

This number would of course include players opting out due to being 'high-risk' from dying of the coronavirus. Also, I at least am not counting players that weren't on a "final" 12-player roster after the first cutoff date of May 26th; such as Han Xu, Marine Johannès, etc. Just players that have already "pick-pocketed" (as Shades would say) a couple of paychecks thus far. Wink

Feel free to say what your guess is and why!



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Shades



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PostPosted: 06/22/20 8:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You could have started at “less than 6”, since we’re at 5 now. Everybody forgets Zandalasini for some reason. Feinberg forgot about her and he’s supposed to be the leading authority on WNBA.

You went ridiculously high. Do you think most players are waiting until the last day?



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pilight



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PostPosted: 06/22/20 9:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I voted 10-19, but if it reached the 20's I wouldn't be shocked



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Stormeo



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PostPosted: 06/22/20 9:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
You could have started at “less than 6”, since we’re at 5 now. Everybody forgets Zandalasini for some reason. Feinberg forgot about her and he’s supposed to be the leading authority on WNBA.


Which is why I gave myself an out by saying "at least four players have already opted out." Truth be told, I had a feeling I was forgetting someone, but that it wasn't someone who was high-profile or absolutely crucial to remember. If even the leading authority on the WNBA forgot about her, maybe I was right.

Shades wrote:
You went ridiculously high. Do you think most players are waiting until the last day?


The way news gets out at the last minute in this League (some of which never even get officially announced) adds onto the already existing large-scale uncertainty. And yes, while I don't think it'll happen - I admittedly went with the 20-29 option - I do think it's still remotely possible half the players opt out. Fwiw, one person even chose the 70+ option as their guess, if you look at the poll results.

I saw no one else make a poll so I made this, but if you'd like to make your own version of this, I suppose it'd only be fair since you probably think I ripped off your poll about the second-round players. I wasn't trying to copy you like that (my potentially now archaic version was updated to reflect who survived the May 26th cuts and had the "no one in this group's gonna do well" option), but believe what you want!



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Last edited by Stormeo on 06/22/20 9:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
myrtle



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PostPosted: 06/22/20 9:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If too many sit out the whole season will be a bit farcical.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 06/22/20 9:49 pm    ::: Re: Guess How Many Players End Up Opting Out Reply Reply with quote

Stormeo wrote:

We've seen Florida, amongst other states, rise dramatically in coronavirus cases.


If they do it right where no one who has recently been outside the facility gets near the players, the situation in Florida shouldn't be a concern to them.


Stormeo



Joined: 14 Jul 2019
Posts: 1144
Location: Seattle, WA


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PostPosted: 06/22/20 10:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Too, some players may be content just to sit out and further rest their bodies, especially if they've made more money overseas up to this point which affords them the luxury of sitting out. And as we know, a lot of veterans or even talented young players that play in the W make most of their money overseas. If playing in the W isn't much more than side money in comparison to playing in an overseas league, it gets easier to decide it's not worth risking their health with getting the virus and/or it's a good opportunity to put their energy towards the social justice movements instead. There are obvious counterarguments to that line of thinking, but I'm just speculating on how these players might actually think since they're the ones faced with this decision and we don't really know what they're thinking. That there's so much to consider around the decision could be its own point.

Ultimately it may end up being a farcical season anyway. One of the NWSL teams has now had to pull out of its tournament of a season entirely, before even playing a single game, because of a coronavirus outbreak within the team. And basketball is much more enclosed and close-up than soccer is. If even one player catches the virus before/during the season and doesn't show symptoms, it could be game over for a team pretty quickly.



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toad455



Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 7:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
I voted 10-19, but if it reached the 20's I wouldn't be shocked


I'm expecting 1-2 players per team. That's roughly 20 players. We've had 5 so far and have three days to go.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 8:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The reason why I questioned going so high with the opt-out choices is because the season probably becomes non-viable at a much lower number. There’s no way there’s 70 replacement players that are ready to go. I’m guessing the league may become non-viable at around 30 opt-outs, maybe even lower.

Seems like Reeve was prepared ahead of time for Zandalisini’s opt-out. They announced a replacement player right away. Anybody find it eerie that the Mystics made no replacement announcement? Were they totally caught off guard or are they struggling to find replacements? They cut both of their draft picks but I suppose they may want something better.



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toad455



Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 8:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There's a solid 20 players out there to fill in spots. After that it'll be a bunch of rookies signing that have never player a W game.

GUARDS
Brittany Boyd
Alexis Prince
Jackie Gemelos
Linnae Harper
Kaela Davis
Shey Peddy
Kenisha Bell
Tiffany Bias
Te'a Cooper

WINGS
Essence Carson
Tamera Young
Karlie Samuelson
Betnijah Laney
Shavonte Zellous
Asia Taylor
Jamie Nared

POSTS
Reshanda Gray
Erica McCall
Alaina Coates
Ashley Walker



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Last edited by toad455 on 06/23/20 10:31 am; edited 1 time in total
Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 54528



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 8:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I would consider Mompremier and Cooper as “rookies that have never played a WNBA game.”



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toad455



Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 8:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
I would consider Mompremier and Cooper as “rookies that have never played a WNBA game.”


They're likely the two best available, so I listed them.



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root_thing



Joined: 28 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 10:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I just listened to the interview on the Aces thread that Shades posted. It was interesting that Laimbeer as president and coach of a franchise sounded so uncertain. He clearly has reservations about the arrangements. Probably some of this has to do with his personal situation, being in the older at-risk age group. Nonetheless, if you’re a player, hearing your leader sound so hesitant can’t be a good feeling. It appears that discussions are still very active among the players. In fact, Bill made a crack suggesting that people may ignore the June 25th deadline. I guess if you suddenly get cold feet, you're not getting on the plane regardless of the date.



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toad455



Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 10:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Mompremier was just picked up by the Sun, so I removed her from my list.



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Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 10:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
In fact, Bill made a crack suggesting that people may ignore the June 25th deadline. I guess if you suddenly get cold feet, you're not getting on the plane regardless of the date.

That's... actually an interesting point. If you're in the group that has no medical justification for opting-out - which is most people - then what's the difference? You tell them you're not showing up by June 25 so they stop paying you; or you just don't show up for the bubble in Florida, so then they stop paying you. Outside of making the deadline for saying "A doctor says I'm high-risk, so I'm not coming and you have to pay me anyway!" the players don't appear to have much to lose by waiting.



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Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 11:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
I just listened to the interview on the Aces thread that Shades posted. It was interesting that Laimbeer as president and coach of a franchise sounded so uncertain. He clearly has reservations about the arrangements. Probably some of this has to do with his personal situation, being in the older at-risk age group. Nonetheless, if you’re a player, hearing your leader sound so hesitant can’t be a good feeling. It appears that discussions are still very active among the players. In fact, Bill made a crack suggesting that people may ignore the June 25th deadline. I guess if you suddenly get cold feet, you're not getting on the plane regardless of the date.


He probably doesn’t like the Florida site because supposedly Vegas was a candidate to host. You know how Laimbeer gets. Grumble, grumble, grumble.



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willtalk



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 12:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If too many players opt out, they can always play 3X3. LOL.



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 12:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
root_thing wrote:
I just listened to the interview on the Aces thread that Shades posted. It was interesting that Laimbeer as president and coach of a franchise sounded so uncertain. He clearly has reservations about the arrangements. Probably some of this has to do with his personal situation, being in the older at-risk age group. Nonetheless, if you’re a player, hearing your leader sound so hesitant can’t be a good feeling. It appears that discussions are still very active among the players. In fact, Bill made a crack suggesting that people may ignore the June 25th deadline. I guess if you suddenly get cold feet, you're not getting on the plane regardless of the date.


He probably doesn’t like the Florida site because supposedly Vegas was a candidate to host. You know how Laimbeer gets. Grumble, grumble, grumble.


Laimbeer didn’t say anything explicitly negative. He just said the details hadn’t been worked out and that they would have to wait and see. I was mostly taken aback by the uncertainty in his voice. Laimbeer is president of a franchise. Short of the commissioner, he should know as much about the arrangements as anyone. Bill suggesting that he is in the dark about a lot of things makes these plans to restart the season sound much shakier than I expected.



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And the colors of the day that lie along your arms
You must barter your life to make sure you are living
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You give them the colors
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 1:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
Laimbeer didn’t say anything explicitly negative. He just said the details hadn’t been worked out and that they would have to wait and see. I was mostly taken aback by the uncertainty in his voice. Laimbeer is president of a franchise. Short of the commissioner, he should know as much about the arrangements as anyone. Bill suggesting that he is in the dark about a lot of things makes these plans to restart the season sound much shakier than I expected.


I'd add this. I've heard Bill Laimbeer speak in person (at an MSG event for prospective season ticket holders) and I've seen him many times on TV or over the computer. Offhand I don't recall EVER seeing Bill Laimbeer seem uncertain. So to read what root_thing has reported is quite striking.



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TigerVol



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 2:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

On the flip side - how stable are the overseas seasons looking right now?

And the soccer team could have easily avoided that outbreak had some younger players respected the self quarantine expectation vs going out to a bar/venue.


Stormeo wrote:
Too, some players may be content just to sit out and further rest their bodies, especially if they've made more money overseas up to this point which affords them the luxury of sitting out. And as we know, a lot of veterans or even talented young players that play in the W make most of their money overseas. If playing in the W isn't much more than side money in comparison to playing in an overseas league, it gets easier to decide it's not worth risking their health with getting the virus and/or it's a good opportunity to put their energy towards the social justice movements instead. There are obvious counterarguments to that line of thinking, but I'm just speculating on how these players might actually think since they're the ones faced with this decision and we don't really know what they're thinking. That there's so much to consider around the decision could be its own point.

Ultimately it may end up being a farcical season anyway. One of the NWSL teams has now had to pull out of its tournament of a season entirely, before even playing a single game, because of a coronavirus outbreak within the team. And basketball is much more enclosed and close-up than soccer is. If even one player catches the virus before/during the season and doesn't show symptoms, it could be game over for a team pretty quickly.



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WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 2:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Add TIP Hayes to the list.



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Stormeo



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 3:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

TigerVol wrote:
On the flip side - how stable are the overseas seasons looking right now?

And the soccer team could have easily avoided that outbreak had some younger players respected the self quarantine expectation vs going out to a bar/venue.


Like I said, there are obvious counterarguments. With overseas leagues, few countries' virus situations are akin to the US's particularly unstable one. But at the same time, we might be the first country to get a vaccine to the masses and ultimately fully recover the quickest. So you're right, there's just as much uncertainty there as there is here.

I didn't realize that much of the soccer team foolishly went to a bar at some point. Though they probably contracted the virus there, there is still a nonzero chance a WNBA player gets it and passes it on no matter how air-tight the quarantining and League-wide 'bubble' is. Only so much can be controlled in an environment that'll still have, idk, 175+ League-related personnel? (players, coaches, trainers, refs, broadcast crews, etc.)



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Last edited by Stormeo on 06/23/20 3:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
TigerVol



Joined: 16 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: 06/23/20 3:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That said - no player will surprise me. I consider every season optional for any of the reasons players might opt out now.

Might be easier for some vs others eg store of overseas bucks or already on their way to a post wnba career.

Some folks just may not be able to have their family there (even if technically allowed in the bubble it might not work for partner/kids lives)...that might be enough.

Will be interesting to see if there is enough interest to field the full league.


TigerVol wrote:
On the flip side - how stable are the overseas seasons looking right now?

And the soccer team could have easily avoided that outbreak had some younger players respected the self quarantine expectation vs going out to a bar/venue.


Stormeo wrote:
Too, some players may be content just to sit out and further rest their bodies, especially if they've made more money overseas up to this point which affords them the luxury of sitting out. And as we know, a lot of veterans or even talented young players that play in the W make most of their money overseas. If playing in the W isn't much more than side money in comparison to playing in an overseas league, it gets easier to decide it's not worth risking their health with getting the virus and/or it's a good opportunity to put their energy towards the social justice movements instead. There are obvious counterarguments to that line of thinking, but I'm just speculating on how these players might actually think since they're the ones faced with this decision and we don't really know what they're thinking. That there's so much to consider around the decision could be its own point.

Ultimately it may end up being a farcical season anyway. One of the NWSL teams has now had to pull out of its tournament of a season entirely, before even playing a single game, because of a coronavirus outbreak within the team. And basketball is much more enclosed and close-up than soccer is. If even one player catches the virus before/during the season and doesn't show symptoms, it could be game over for a team pretty quickly.



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Stormeo



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 3:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think there are a lot of fringe or below-fringe WNBA players that would pick up the phone in a heartbeat if a team came calling and wouldn't think twice about saying yes. The rare potential of a mass exodus could allow several players a once-in-a-lifetime chance to either get back into the League or get in it for the first time. I may be in the minority, but I think even if 50 or 60 current players opted out, each team would be able to find the bodies they needed to at least get to the minimum 11, even if you factor out non-North American/non-US players. If the season gets cancelled, imo it won't be because of too many players opting out. The level of play of course may not be pretty in that scenario, but once the virus happened it was never going to be 'picturesque' this year anyway.



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Last edited by Stormeo on 06/23/20 3:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 06/23/20 3:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I wonder if player X's see's its teams top player's opting out if that would play a factor in them sitting out as well ? I wouldn't think so due to the money , but if competitiveness is a factor could that happen ?



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