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Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 12897
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 05/13/20 8:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
be realistic....

HIV was and is devastating....was there ever any call for "social distancing"?....ever?.....they wouldn't even close the bathhouses....and IIRC, Fauci was the head of the National Institute back then....


Be informed.

In hindsight, HIV is far less virulent that Covid. For example, it could not be acquired via airborne droplets, and certainly not if social distancing is practiced. HIV is a (predominantly) blood-borne pathogen.

Yes, bathhouses were not closed....at FIRST. Once the reality was known, then there was a crackdown. Obviously, they were NOT 'essential' businesses, and had maintained a limited clientele. Closing them had little/no impact on the economy.

And yes, Fauci was director of the NIH then -- I got to meet him in person once -- and he deserves much credit for maintaining a sober, scientific approach to a (then) frightening phenomenon.

Yes, Covid and HIV are both viruses, but quite different in their pathologies, ramifications and outcomes.



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elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 05/13/20 9:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hong Kong flu killed ONE MILLION people worldwide back in 68/69.....anybody remember that.....I was alive but young and all I remember is woodstock, the moon landing, and Chappaquiddick......


is isolation working?....no.....Nursing homes have been shutdown since late March and the death rate has been stunning....

we didn't save those people with isolation.....but we did manage to make their last days to be full of fear and loneliness....

I work on the front lines....nobody is afraid or worried....

of course take precautions....I'm high risk and I'm careful...

I don't think we should stop colleges and universities because of this virus when we didn't stop them for other health situations...hiv. hong kong flu, swine flu, etc....

we need to get back to normal routines.....we need college sports ...

ultimately the "cure" will destroy a lot of lives for yrs and yrs......I am sure everyone can see that....


purduefanatic



Joined: 10 Aug 2011
Posts: 2421
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PostPosted: 05/13/20 9:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Didn't see this thread when I posted The Chronicle of Higher Education piece yesterday in a new thread. Thus, I have pasted it here so people that have been following along don't need to open multiple threads.

https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-s-a-List-of-Colleges-/248626

That was updated through 5:00 pm yesterday and has added lots of new schools since yesterday.

My apologies for the extra thread.


summertime blues



Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: 05/13/20 10:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Basically, I think we are all going to have Covid-19 in one form or another. Either we've had it, we're carriers, we had it and know/don't know for sure, or are going to get it, or are "silent cases". It's a matter of time. I have a sneaking suspicion that a lot of the people testing "positive" with no symptoms may have already had mild cases and are "positive" because they have antibodies. I'm pretty sure Mr. STB and I had it back in December when we were both hideously sick with *all* the symptoms, but not sick enough for the ER. Being a nurse, I could manage us at home and I was sure it was viral.

The reasons people in nursing homes are dying are multiple. First of all, nursing homes are full of people at risk. Most of the people there have underlying health conditions. Secondly, they're packed in, generally two to a room, and there are communal dining and recreation spaces, a good way to pass things around. A third reason is understaffing. There are generally only one or two licensed persons per unit and the day to day care of the residents falls to unlicensed, poorly paid Who are stretched thin. They may not have the training to recognize symptoms in others or in themselves. They are so poorly paid that they have to work sick to make ends meet. I know these people; they are overwhelmingly women, many single parents who are just trying to get by. I met them when they accompanies patients to the hospital or visited them, and on the few occasions when I worked agency, also when my daughter was one for awhile. Some were my classmates in nursing school. Anyway, that's how disease spreads in nursing homes. All disease.

Some of you might be old enough to remember the *first* iteration of Asian flu in 1957-58. Had we had the media blitz that we have today, we might have had the measures being taken that are now being taken against Covid-19. It was a lulu, believe you me. It, too, started in China as a strain of Influenza A, and was the impetus for the development of today's flu vaccines. CDC estimates it killed at least 1.1 million people worldwide, and 70,000 to 116,000 right here in the US. I remember my mother being deathly ill in the bedroom right across the hall from mine, and the doctor making house calls every afternoon after his office hours (some still did that then). Hospitals were overflowing and doctors' offices were packed. But schools didn't close and we carried on as best we could. I remember my dad going to work as a professor at UW-Madison, but he didn't hold office hours while mom was sick, he hurried home to take care of her. I was 14 and took care of cooking chores and some laundry, but the house didn't get cleaned much. This flu virus underwent an antigenic shift and was responsible for the 1968 "Hong Kong flu" pandemic that elsie cites. Again, we didn't have the media blitz.

Flu viruses are a little different in that scientists now basically know how to make a vaccine against them. They worked on it in the first Asian flu pandemic and got the process down so unless one comes in under the radar the vaccine is generally pretty effective. Covid-19 is a coronavirus, which is the same family as the common cold, and is a different thing altogether as these virii are very tricky and mutate constantly, which is why we don't have a vaccine against the common cold. But I do think the media blitz is a huge reason for both the widespread freakout over Covid-19 *AND* the overabundance of conspiracy theories about it. I'm sure it would have been much the same had we had 24 hour cable and the internet in the winter of 1957-58.

Forgive the length of this post. Just a few things I had on my mind.



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 05/14/20 4:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:


is isolation working?....no.....Nursing homes have been shutdown since late March and the death rate has been stunning....

we didn't save those people with isolation.....but we did manage to make their last days to be full of fear and loneliness....


Nursing home patients can’t self-isolate which is why so many got it and died. There are workers (some who work at multiple nursing homes) coming in and out of their “home” everyday. Nursing homes are not an example of isolation. And some governors made it worse, such as Cuomo in New York, Murphy in New Jersey and Newsom in California, when they forced nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients from hospitals before they had fully recovered

Quote:
HIV was and is devastating....was there ever any call for "social distancing"?....ever?.


HIV, unlike COVID-19, isn’t transmissible from just being near someone.


summertime blues



Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: 05/14/20 6:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
elsie wrote:


is isolation working?....no.....Nursing homes have been shutdown since late March and the death rate has been stunning....

we didn't save those people with isolation.....but we did manage to make their last days to be full of fear and loneliness....


Nursing home patients can’t self-isolate which is why so many got it and died. There are workers (some who work at multiple nursing homes) coming in and out of their “home” everyday. Nursing homes are not an example of isolation. And some governors made it worse, such as Cuomo in New York, Murphy in New Jersey and Newsom in California, when they forced nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients from hospitals before they had fully recovered

Quote:
HIV was and is devastating....was there ever any call for "social distancing"?....ever?.


HIV, unlike COVID-19, isn’t transmissible from just being near someone.


Some incorrect reasoning there. First of all, blaming the governors is flat out wrong. Nursing homes were not "forced" by these governors to take patients who had not fully recovered . That's a political lie and we shouldn't be discussing politics here...but that's beside the point. But in any case, nursing homes take the patients because the *hospitals* deem them well enough to be moved. It's a case manager thing. I know. I worked in hospitals and dealt with case management and that's how things work. But please, stop with the politics. Nursing homes rebreeding grounds because many patients there are frail and have underlying conditions which makes them vulnerable to catching ANYTHING that comes down the pike. Also, because of understaffing, as I said in my post; because the people who care for them are poorly paid and cannot care for them properly because they have too many people to care for. And because they are usually two to a room and there are communal dining and recreational facilities, so there's that. It's NOT a matter of politics, except for the pay....and that has to do with the powerful nursing home lobby (you think there isn't one? Think again. And that's all I'll say about politics.)



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 7950



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PostPosted: 05/14/20 8:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:

Some incorrect reasoning there. First of all, blaming the governors is flat out wrong. Nursing homes were not "forced" by these governors to take patients who had not fully recovered . That's a political lie and we shouldn't be discussing politics here...but that's beside the point


It wasn't said on FoxNews or by Republican politicians as a political attack on Democratic governors. It was reported at multiple sites:

Wall Street Journal article by Anna Wilde Matthews
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-mandates-nursing-homes-take-covid-19-patients-discharged-from-hospitals-11585228215

New York Time article by Kim Barker and Amy Julia Harris

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/nursing-homes-coronavirus.html

News 12 Long Island coverage:
http://longisland.news12.com/story/41944111/ny-mandate-that-brings-covid19-patients-to-nursing-homes-drawing-worries-from-wwii-vets-daughter

NY Post article by Bernadette Hogan and Bruce Holding
https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/nursing-homes-cant-reject-coronavirus-patients-cuomo-says/

But the one thing that isn't there is the original PDF talking about the policy which has been taken down, no doubt because it was so misguided and the results so bad.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/03/doh_covid19-_nhadmissionsreadmissions_-032520.pdf


Quote:
But in any case, nursing homes take the patients because the *hospitals* deem them well enough to be moved. It's a case manager thing. I know. I worked in hospitals and dealt with case management and that's how things work. But please, stop with the politics.


Don't the links above back up the statement?

Did you ever work in a place that was given a patient back from a hospital who still had a deadly infectious respitory disease? Big difference between that and someone who just had a heart attack or stroke.

Quote:
Nursing homes rebreeding grounds because many patients there are frail and have underlying conditions which makes them vulnerable to catching ANYTHING that comes down the pike. Also, because of understaffing, as I said in my post; because the people who care for them are poorly paid and cannot care for them properly because they have too many people to care for. And because they are usually two to a room and there are communal dining and recreational facilities, so there's that. It's NOT a matter of politics, except for the pay....and that has to do with the powerful nursing home lobby (you think there isn't one? Think again. And that's all I'll say about politics.)


Nursing homes were given as an example of a place where people were isolating but still got it. The point I was making is that people in nursing homes are not isolated from the outside world due to the workers. Their frailness makes them more susceptible to harm from the virus but they still need workers (or family members) to bring it into the facility to get it.


summertime blues



Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: 05/14/20 2:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Family members have not been allowed to visit patients in nursing homes anywhere that I'm aware of pretty much since this outbreak started.



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elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 05/14/20 6:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I am a nurse for a long time.....when a Nursing home pt gets admitted in normal times and is positive flu, the home WILL NOT TAKE them back until they've had their run of tamiflu....

so it would be against what they ususally do to take back positive covid pts....

otoh, they will take Mrsa and they will take cdiff pts back....

the whole big point of this discussion is that not even people isolated are protected completely....even without visitors you have staff going in and out...you have supplies coming in....other workmen.....

so lets move on....

I think we can safely and WISELY start living life again....that includes college sports....

and this particular virus will be around.....along with the usual viruses....

some will get sick , a very few might die.....but there really is no way to prevent this....no matter our good intentions....

thankfully, there are lots of great people actually working the problems of treatment and prevention......politicos are just mouth pieces....but REAL people will solve this...

OPEN UP!


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 05/14/20 6:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
I'm pretty sure Mr. STB and I had it back in December when we were both hideously sick with *all* the symptoms, but not sick enough for the ER. Being a nurse, I could manage us at home and I was sure it was viral.



It is truly hard for me to believe that you had Covid-19 in December. Essentially all reporting has indicated that the initial cases of Covid-19 came to the US in mid January. Given how contagious the disease is and you working as a nurse it seems impossible that you did not transmit the virus. Certainly there is much we don't know about the disease and I believe many people could have been misdiagnosed in January, but it seems much more likely that you had a strain of flu, not Covid-19


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 05/14/20 9:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
I'm pretty sure Mr. STB and I had it back in December when we were both hideously sick with *all* the symptoms, but not sick enough for the ER. Being a nurse, I could manage us at home and I was sure it was viral.



It is truly hard for me to believe that you had Covid-19 in December. Essentially all reporting has indicated that the initial cases of Covid-19 came to the US in mid January. Given how contagious the disease is and you working as a nurse it seems impossible that you did not transmit the virus. Certainly there is much we don't know about the disease and I believe many people could have been misdiagnosed in January, but it seems much more likely that you had a strain of flu, not Covid-19


I have 2 friends where this is suspected, one of which had The Symptoms (after getting off a Carnival Cruise with an international clientele) in NOVEMBER whose doctor now wants him tested for Covid antibodies. Certainly, another flu *could* be the culprit, but having a flu vaccine, etc., AND the severity of the symptoms hint at a Covid presence before "initial cases" may have been actually been recognized. After all....who was LOOKING for it in November? It's made me think: could there have been a TRUE first wave that was not so severe/not so noticeable, and we're NOW seeing the actual second wave?? Shocked



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 05/15/20 9:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
I'm pretty sure Mr. STB and I had it back in December when we were both hideously sick with *all* the symptoms, but not sick enough for the ER. Being a nurse, I could manage us at home and I was sure it was viral.



It is truly hard for me to believe that you had Covid-19 in December. Essentially all reporting has indicated that the initial cases of Covid-19 came to the US in mid January. Given how contagious the disease is and you working as a nurse it seems impossible that you did not transmit the virus. Certainly there is much we don't know about the disease and I believe many people could have been misdiagnosed in January, but it seems much more likely that you had a strain of flu, not Covid-19


I have 2 friends where this is suspected, one of which had The Symptoms (after getting off a Carnival Cruise with an international clientele) in NOVEMBER whose doctor now wants him tested for Covid antibodies. Certainly, another flu *could* be the culprit, but having a flu vaccine, etc., AND the severity of the symptoms hint at a Covid presence before "initial cases" may have been actually been recognized. After all....who was LOOKING for it in November? It's made me think: could there have been a TRUE first wave that was not so severe/not so noticeable, and we're NOW seeing the actual second wave?? Shocked


Exactly. Howee. People think that just because the "reporting" says initial cases were here in mid-January, that's how it is. They're most likely wrong, and hindsight will prove that correct, just as hindsight proved (forgive me for bringing this up again) that the first Asian flu cases were here *before* the reporting began in the pandemic of 1957-58. That one began in China also, in 1956, and travel was not nearly so common as it is now, but still common.That flu most likely got here in the early to mid fall of 1957, not the winter. My husband, who got this stuff first, had been at a seminar attended by people who had just returned from some meeting with people from China. There's your contact tracer right there.

And bearman, I am no longer actively working as a nurse. I have been retired since 2012, when I was hit with severe illness that required multiple surgeries. I only do volunteer work now. But once a nurse, always a nurse. It never leaves you.



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 05/15/20 10:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Three issues:

1) We don't know how many people have had COVID-19.

2) We don't know how many people have died from it.

3) We don't know how much immunity, if any, is developed by those who have had it.

It's pretty hard to make decisions confidently without at least answers to those three questions, but it's unlikely we will know about 1) and 3) any time soon. We can get an estimate of the number of COVID deaths simply by comparing total deaths this year to last (with adjustments for increasing population, etc.) but that's still far from accurate.

So far, erring on the side of caution has been the primary response, and who can blame anyone in power for doing so? If you're open too early, you may kill thousands with your decision, and most people don't want to carry that kind of burden.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/15/20 10:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I had a tele-visit last week with my doctor, here in CT, and it's her opinion that COVID-19 has been here since November.

Of course, she has nothing but her personal observations and discussions w/ colleagues to reach that conclusion.

I was sick in mid-Jan w/ the infamous "flu-like symptoms" for about 10 days. Who really knows?



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Howee



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PostPosted: 05/15/20 11:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

All valid points, Clay.
Re:
CayK wrote:
If you're open too early, you may kill thousands with your decision, and most people don't want to carry that kind of burden.


....see my post in the "reopening" thread, and The Gamble.



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 05/15/20 3:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Because of the way our government has handled the pandemic, we will probably never know for sure how many people have had it or how many people have died from it. I have a sneaky hunch that because it's a coronavirus
(same family as the common cold), it will continue to mutate and there will be more and less virulent forms of the stuff around forever....as there have been. It will continue to erupt cyclically (think SARS and MERS, which were also members of the same family) in various degrees of severity more or less forever and we'll have to deal with it. But a public health strategy will have to be developed and it absolutely *cannot* be politicized. That's where things have gone totally off the rails here. WHO is the best agency to handle these types of things but wasn't allowed to.

*getting off my soapbox for now*



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snzuluz



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PostPosted: 05/15/20 8:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Beloit College in Beloit, WI has made the decision to have students enroll in 2 - 7 week courses at a time...that way if they have to move students off campus again, they are only taking two classes online and not 4-5 courses...my guess is they are going to rewrite their credit hours for this to be successful

Right now I teach: a 1 credit- 7 week course and a 3 credit- 14 week course at my college. I also taught a 2 credit - 7 week class that was held face-to-face for 5 out of the 7 weeks before students had to leave campus and my last two weeks were online with them...my classroom as I mentioned before had 18 desks and I had 14 kids enrolled. There was NO way to social distance.

My guess if our WI college adopts Beloit's idea, my 3 credit class would go to a 4 credit class (2 credits for each 7 weeks)...my college used to have 4 credit, 2 credit and 1 credit courses.

Biggest complaint I get from my college students and Beloit also got from their students is 4-5 classes is too much online...they would prefer to break them down into 7 week cycles. Beloit said if this system works, they may make it permanent for their college.

Right now my college plans to open on time and have kids on campus..I do not see that happening to be honest...we have NO way to social distance in many of our classrooms, dining halls, dorms, common areas etc. We are a Division III school, so we do not have large lecture halls or large lecture classes.


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