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tfan



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PostPosted: 04/23/20 4:57 am    ::: SARS Coronavirus 2 vaccine Reply Reply with quote

We Might Never Get a Good Coronavirus Vaccine

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It’s possible, Roper fears, that COVID-19 could be a virus that proves resistant to vaccination. “This may be one,” she says. “If we have one, this is going to be it, I think.” The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold.


A coronavirus vaccine probably won't be ready before the end of 2021, according to a Swiss pharmaceutical giant

Quote:
Schwan said an antibody test — which can determine whether someone has had COVID-19 and could be launched as early as May — would instead be the key to allowing people to return to normal life.


Is a COVID-19 vaccine possible? ‘Some viruses are very, very difficult,’ expert says

Quote:
An effective coronavirus vaccine, considered key to bringing the world back to normal, just may not be in the cards, according to some medical experts.

“You don’t necessarily develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against every virus,” said David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College in London, The Guardian reported.


Luuuc



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PostPosted: 04/23/20 5:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Given the lack of success against previous Coronaviruses, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that we're going to struggle to vaccinate against this one as well. So yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up too high about it as if it's just a matter of when.
On the other hand, I doubt whether so many resources have ever been mobilised so quickly against a virus before, so fingers crossed real hard that we succeed this time 🤞 🤞



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 04/23/20 9:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I can't find the story now, but a couple of weeks ago, I read about a couple of scientists saying they thought a vaccine was feasible but the longevity of immunity was doubtful and people would probably have to get revaccinated annually like they do for the regular flu.


justintyme



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PostPosted: 04/24/20 10:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Given the lack of success against previous Coronaviruses, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that we're going to struggle to vaccinate against this one as well. So yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up too high about it as if it's just a matter of when.
On the other hand, I doubt whether so many resources have ever been mobilised so quickly against a virus before, so fingers crossed real hard that we succeed this time 🤞 🤞

Yeah the second part of that is key here. Most Coronaviruses wouldn't warrant the resources needed to develop a vaccine because they don't represent a major health risk. The risks associated with vaccination would outweigh the risks of getting the those mild viruses.

SARS and MERS are different beasts, but because they are regional and have a relatively low R0 factor, there isn't much of a concern of them turning into a global pandemic. Local isolation/quarantines during any of what appears to be extremely rare outbreaks fairly effective. Vaccines would require an immense commitment of already limited resources and while there may be some labs working on them, it is unlikely to be a major priority.

COVID-19, however, is getting everyone's attention and will have resources thrown at it. This will likely be the first Coronavirus to have a serious effort made at making a vaccine.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 04/24/20 11:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
Luuuc wrote:
Given the lack of success against previous Coronaviruses, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that we're going to struggle to vaccinate against this one as well. So yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up too high about it as if it's just a matter of when.
On the other hand, I doubt whether so many resources have ever been mobilised so quickly against a virus before, so fingers crossed real hard that we succeed this time 🤞 🤞

Yeah the second part of that is key here. Most Coronaviruses wouldn't warrant the resources needed to develop a vaccine because they don't represent a major health risk. The risks associated with vaccination would outweigh the risks of getting the those mild viruses.

SARS and MERS are different beasts, but because they are regional and have a relatively low R0 factor, there isn't much of a concern of them turning into a global pandemic. Local isolation/quarantines during any of what appears to be extremely rare outbreaks fairly effective. Vaccines would require an immense commitment of already limited resources and while there may be some labs working on them, it is unlikely to be a major priority.

COVID-19, however, is getting everyone's attention and will have resources thrown at it. This will likely be the first Coronavirus to have a serious effort made at making a vaccine.


Both SARS and MERS have received significant research on vaccines. Even though their R0 were 1.5 and <1 respectively, they managed to spread to ~30 countries, and their mortality rates were ~10% and 30%, so they got a lot of attention. Vaccine research on SARS has been disappointing but it looks like we may be getting closer to a MERS vaccine. Note that SARS is caused by the SARS-CoV-1 virus, and COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2


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PostPosted: 04/24/20 12:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:

Both SARS and MERS have received significant research on vaccines.

That's good to know. I hadn't heard of any major undertakings. My understanding was that research into it was more on the lines of the way they approached the Ebola virus. Where there was a few labs that took it on and researched it, there was never a major commitment of resources to it for a long period of time. When the outbreaks happened, there was a lot of concern and they became a priority, but as they disappeared the priority took a pretty sizable hit. Much like how it works with Ebola. When the outbreaks occur a bunch of attention and resources in funneled into it, but as they are controlled the urgency goes away and so does the fast-tracking.



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Howee



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PostPosted: 04/24/20 5:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Given the lack of success against previous Coronaviruses, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that we're going to struggle to vaccinate against this one as well. So yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up too high about it as if it's just a matter of when.
On the other hand, I doubt whether so many resources have ever been mobilised so quickly against a virus before, so fingers crossed real hard that we succeed this time 🤞 🤞


I'm inspired by the ingenuity of the planet's scientific community. I mean, back in 1918, a "virus" was not even a known entity by the scientific community. Measles, Smallpox, Polio, HIV, etc., have all, in turn, led to vaccines or viable therapies. It may not be soon, but I trust it will happen.

I'm curious if there's any record in history of an entire species being wiped out from pathogens like a virus. As an entity, our species might just be the most deserving of such a catastrophe, given our propensity to fukk with the natural balance of things. Razz



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 04/24/20 5:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:

Both SARS and MERS have received significant research on vaccines.

That's good to know. I hadn't heard of any major undertakings. My understanding was that research into it was more on the lines of the way they approached the Ebola virus. Where there was a few labs that took it on and researched it, there was never a major commitment of resources to it for a long period of time. When the outbreaks happened, there was a lot of concern and they became a priority, but as they disappeared the priority took a pretty sizable hit. Much like how it works with Ebola. When the outbreaks occur a bunch of attention and resources in funneled into it, but as they are controlled the urgency goes away and so does the fast-tracking.


I don't know exactly how to quantitate "significant" amounts, but the research is ongoing. I read an article only a few days ago about progress with a MERS vaccine. One of the problems with the SARS vaccine is that several trials where it appeared that the vaccine might be effective produced untenable side effects when it was tried on humans. Given the similarity between the SARS and COVID-19 viruses, I would surmise that making a vaccine for the latter would be difficult, but earlier research on the former might help in planning what not to try.


Luuuc



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PostPosted: 04/24/20 6:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
I'm curious if there's any record in history of an entire species being wiped out from pathogens like a virus. As an entity, our species might just be the most deserving of such a catastrophe, given our propensity to fukk with the natural balance of things. Razz

Does The War of the Worlds (Tom Cruise movie version) count?



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pilight



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PostPosted: 04/24/20 7:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
I'm curious if there's any record in history of an entire species being wiped out from pathogens like a virus. As an entity, our species might just be the most deserving of such a catastrophe, given our propensity to fukk with the natural balance of things. Razz


Happens all the time. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has wiped at least 90 species of amphibians (mostly frogs) in the last half century.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 2:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Saw a clip of Trump saying today that "We think we're going to have a vaccine by the end of the year". I saw some expert saying the other day that the fastest a vaccine had ever been developed is 5 years.


Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 5:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Saw a clip of Trump saying today that "We think we're going to have a vaccine by the end of the year". I saw some expert saying the other day that the fastest a vaccine had ever been developed is 5 years.


Trump is an idiot who only cares about himself. I don't know what it will take for some people to see that he is totally un-equipped to be president.

If W has it figured out, I don't know why everyone else can't see it. Confused



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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 7:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Saw a clip of Trump saying today that "We think we're going to have a vaccine by the end of the year". I saw some expert saying the other day that the fastest a vaccine had ever been developed is 5 years.


After the 1918 Influenza that killed 50 million worldwide, the vaccine was quickly developed and ready for public consumption by 1942



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 9:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
tfan wrote:
Saw a clip of Trump saying today that "We think we're going to have a vaccine by the end of the year". I saw some expert saying the other day that the fastest a vaccine had ever been developed is 5 years.


After the 1918 Influenza that killed 50 million worldwide, the vaccine was quickly developed and ready for public consumption by 1942


Point taken, but we've acquired a century's worth of knowledge about vaccines in the meantime.


tfan



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 9:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A CNN show just quoted Dr Birx saying that a vaccine could be available in January, but with the qualifier “on paper”. One guest said that it normally takes years for a vaccine and he continued to feel that everything needed to go well in order to get one in 12 to 18 months but he was hopeful there would be one in 2021. He said that maybe a miracle could happen and there would be one in January. Another guest showed her skepticism by starting out saying that it is unknown if there could even be a coronavirus vaccine. A third guest said that he was glad she qualified it and said that “on paper” means “as opposed to real life”.

There are 14 vaccine candidates that the administration has identified and is going to support.


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PostPosted: 05/04/20 10:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
A CNN show just quoted Dr Birx saying that a vaccine could be available in January, but with the qualifier “on paper”. One guest said that it normally takes years for a vaccine and he continued to feel that everything needed to go well in order to get one in 12 to 18 months but he was hopeful there would be one in 2021. He said that maybe a miracle could happen and there would be one in January. Another guest showed her skepticism by starting out saying that it is unknown if there could even be a coronavirus vaccine. A third guest said that he was glad she qualified it and said that “on paper” means “as opposed to real life”.

There are 14 vaccine candidates that the administration has identified and is going to support.


Who were these guests? Actual virologists? Or just a bunch of politicians?


Howee



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 10:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
tfan wrote:
Saw a clip of Trump saying today that "We think we're going to have a vaccine by the end of the year". I saw some expert saying the other day that the fastest a vaccine had ever been developed is 5 years.


After the 1918 Influenza that killed 50 million worldwide, the vaccine was quickly developed and ready for public consumption by 1942


Laughing I hope you're *snarking*, buddy....those three boldfaced terms do NOT belong in the same sentence, unless you're referring to a glacier's movement. Razz

In our current century, and even the last, 24 years between disease and vaccine is hardly quick.

And -- not having researched any of this -- I'm pondering things like: Why did the 1918 pandemic not return in later years? Was 1942 the first of any influenza vaccines, or just one for the '18 strain?


edit: correction on flawed math. Cool



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Last edited by Howee on 05/04/20 11:17 am; edited 3 times in total
tfan



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 10:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
tfan wrote:
A CNN show just quoted Dr Birx saying that a vaccine could be available in January, but with the qualifier “on paper”. One guest said that it normally takes years for a vaccine and he continued to feel that everything needed to go well in order to get one in 12 to 18 months but he was hopeful there would be one in 2021. He said that maybe a miracle could happen and there would be one in January. Another guest showed her skepticism by starting out saying that it is unknown if there could even be a coronavirus vaccine. A third guest said that he was glad she qualified it and said that “on paper” means “as opposed to real life”.

There are 14 vaccine candidates that the administration has identified and is going to support.


Who were these guests? Actual virologists? Or just a bunch of politicians?


I think they were all doctors of some kind. One I definitely heard Dr before her name and she was current or former head of something. Another was mentioned as affiliated with a university.




Last edited by tfan on 05/04/20 10:26 am; edited 1 time in total
pilight



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 10:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1918 to 1942 is 24 years, not 34

Quote:
Why did the 1918 pandemic not return in later years? Was 1942 the first of any influenza vaccines, or just one for the '18 strain?


The popular theory is that it mutated into a less lethal strain, as viral pathogens often do.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 1:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
pilight wrote:
tfan wrote:
Saw a clip of Trump saying today that "We think we're going to have a vaccine by the end of the year". I saw some expert saying the other day that the fastest a vaccine had ever been developed is 5 years.


After the 1918 Influenza that killed 50 million worldwide, the vaccine was quickly developed and ready for public consumption by 1942


Laughing I hope you're *snarking*, buddy....those three boldfaced terms do NOT belong in the same sentence, unless you're referring to a glacier's movement. Razz

In our current century, and even the last, 24 years between disease and vaccine is hardly quick.

And -- not having researched any of this -- I'm pondering things like: Why did the 1918 pandemic not return in later years? Was 1942 the first of any influenza vaccines, or just one for the '18 strain?


edit: correction on flawed math. Cool


Those early researchers were mostly flying blind. Things like DNA and RNA weren't really understood until the 1930's, and the influenza A virus was only discovered in 1932-33. Vaccine research was promptly instituted using military recruits and there was a successful vaccine available by 1938, but it wasn't ready for usage in the general population until further testing was done and it was released in 1942. Influenza B and subtyping weren't discovered for a few more years, so that first vaccine was directed at the only influenza virus they had been able to isolate. The influenza virus that caused the 1918 Spanish flu wasn't actually isolated until 1997 when it was retrieved from the frozen corpse of a Spanish flu victim in Alaska.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html#discovering


tfan



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PostPosted: 05/04/20 6:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Scientists Say A Vaccine For COVID-19 Could Still Be Far Off

Quote:
"In 20/20 hindsight, we should have worked harder on coronavirus vaccines back since SARS and back since MERS, because by then we might have had something promising," Dr. Sten Vermund, Dean of the Yale School of Public Health said.


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PostPosted: 05/04/20 11:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Scientists Say A Vaccine For COVID-19 Could Still Be Far Off

Quote:
"In 20/20 hindsight, we should have worked harder on coronavirus vaccines back since SARS and back since MERS, because by then we might have had something promising," Dr. Sten Vermund, Dean of the Yale School of Public Health said.


The end of the article you quote says the Oxford vaccine could be available by September if it works. However, there will be three issues for any vaccine.

First, there is the issue of how many units of vaccine can be manufactured even if is proved to work on humans by September. The whole WORLD needs units of the vaccine. Who will get priority and when?

Second, even if a vaccine works in trials, "works" is a very indefinite thing for vaccines and therapeutic medications. How well does the flu vaccine work? Well, it varies greatly from year to year because their are now so many strains of the virus. 50% would probably be a very good year. All sorts of medicines, too, will work well with some people but not at all with others.

Third, there is the issue of how many people will agree to be vaccinated. In the U.S., I've read, only about 45% of adults and 63% of children get the flu vaccine.

I wouldn't put too much expectation into a bombproof vaccine. As should be obvious from my data thread, I've always been and remain a believer in protecting the old and unhealthy from CV19 as best we can, especially including nursing homes and assisted living facilities, but otherwise getting as much herd immunity as soon as possible among everyone else.
tfan



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PostPosted: 05/05/20 2:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
tfan wrote:
Scientists Say A Vaccine For COVID-19 Could Still Be Far Off

Quote:
"In 20/20 hindsight, we should have worked harder on coronavirus vaccines back since SARS and back since MERS, because by then we might have had something promising," Dr. Sten Vermund, Dean of the Yale School of Public Health said.


The end of the article you quote says the Oxford vaccine could be available by September if it works.


It was at the end of an article that was linked in the article I quoted: Trump Administration Pursues Accelerated Vaccine Development

Hard to believe that anyone anywhere in the world could be talking about a vaccine in September and Trump isn't mentioning it daily.

Quote:
However, there will be three issues for any vaccine. First, there is the issue of how many units of vaccine can be manufactured even if is proved to work on humans by September. The whole WORLD needs units of the vaccine. Who will get priority and when?


Health care workers -> first responders -> grocery workers, and food production workers -> postal and delivery, Amazon warehouse type places, -> factory workers

Quote:
Second, even if a vaccine works in trials, "works" is a very indefinite thing for vaccines and therapeutic medications. How well does the flu vaccine work? Well, it varies greatly from year to year because their are now so many strains of the virus. 50% would probably be a very good year. All sorts of medicines, too, will work well with some people but not at all with others.

Third, there is the issue of how many people will agree to be vaccinated. In the U.S., I've read, only about 45% of adults and 63% of children get the flu vaccine.


I heard someone today say that a small amount of people, something like 1 to 3%, believe vaccinations are harmful and will not get them for themselves or their kids. He used 40% for the number of people who get flu shots, but that does make you wonder if there would be a significant number of people who would pass on a vaccine for this virus. A case could be made for forcing people to get a coronavirus vaccine - but also flu shots and every other vaccine going. About 15 years ago I checked to see if my health insurance would cover a meningitis vaccine after a local college student died of it. They said that they would pay for any vaccination so I asked my doctor for meningitis, hepatitis A and hepatitis B vaccines. He fought me on getting any of them (meningitis is a college dorm disease, hepatitis B is caught the same ways as hepatitis C for which there is no vaccine, and hepatitis A is not that serious). But he eventually gave in. While he didn't say it, I think he felt that it was a wasted expenditure by the health care system. But my health insurance company felt the opposite and they were making the expenditure.


Quote:
I wouldn't put too much expectation into a bombproof vaccine. As should be obvious from my data thread, I've always been and remain a believer in protecting the old and unhealthy from CV19 as best we can, especially including nursing homes and assisted living facilities, but otherwise getting as much herd immunity as soon as possible among everyone else.


Since you are of the age that would still be staying inside, why do you feel so strongly against the "shelter in place"? Or would you not be staying inside?


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PostPosted: 05/13/20 10:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I found this very interesting. We'll be producing and stockpiling doses of vaccines under research, so if any prove to be effective, we'll be ready to distribute them right away. I'm sure it will be expensive, but if it flattens the next COVID-19 wave instead of repeating the current economic disruptions, it may well be a cost-saving approach in the end.


U.S. is poised to produce a COVID-19 vaccine, but don’t expect it soon

Quote:
Manufacturers will begin producing COVID-19 vaccine doses in anticipation of approval so that if a product gets the okay for usage, distribution can begin quickly, according to Anthony S. Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“We will be producing vaccine at risk, which means we’ll be [investing] considerable resources in developing doses even before we know any given candidate or candidates work,” he testified during a May 12, 2020, hearing of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee...

And while Dr. Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, remained optimistic that one or more vaccine candidates would ultimately be viable, he cautioned that there remain many unknowns that could slow the development of a vaccine for COVID-19...

It’s unlikely that either a vaccine or an effective treatment will be available in the next 3 months, Dr. Fauci told the committee...The emphasis in the coming months should be on testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected with the virus, Dr. Fauci said.

https://www.mdedge.com/internalmedicine/article/222134/coronavirus-updates/us-poised-produce-covid-19-vaccine-dont-expect


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PostPosted: 05/13/20 11:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, Frozen, Fauci said this a few weeks ago. I thought it was fascinating and my understanding (putting it generously) is that this isn’t unheard of.



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