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jammerbirdi
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Howee
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pilight
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 Posted: 10/20/20 12:48 pm ::: |
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| Joe Biden, after more than 40 years in Washington and two previous presidential runs, is very much a known quantity.
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Howee
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| Posted: 10/20/20 5:26 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Joe Biden, after more than 40 years in Washington and two previous presidential runs, is very much a known quantity. |
....which (to me) plays in his favor...."We tried the New and Wacky, now we're ready for some mental stability."
His reputation is far less tarnished than Hillary's was 4 years ago.
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pilight
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| Posted: 10/20/20 5:40 pm ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
| His reputation is far less tarnished than Hillary's was 4 years ago. |
Talk about damning with faint praise!
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 10/20/20 8:12 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| His reputation is far less tarnished than Hillary's was 4 years ago. |
Talk about damning with faint praise! |
Hillary Clinton's negative numbers were HUGE. In part due to her less than warm personality but more due to Bill's shenanigans and her decision to "stand by her man."
By contrast, Biden's negatives are pretty darn low for any candidate while 45's are even more negative than Hillary's were 4 years ago.
This matters. It basically means that more of the few undecideds will vote for Biden than for 45, just as more voted for 45 than for Hillary Clinton. It's just the law of averages. Those high negatives mean that - no matter what - those people will not vote for them.
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tfan
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| Posted: 10/20/20 8:23 pm ::: |
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In additional to a positive favorability versus Clinton's negative, Biden has had a larger and more consistent lead than Clinton. National polls are meaningless with the electoral college, but he is also leading in the battleground states for the most part. Even states like Georgia and Texas are in play. I think his campaign is concerned that since his lead has been so big for so long, people will not show up to vote thinking they don't need to.
Five Thirty Eight now has the odds favoring the Democrats to win the Senate.
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Conway Gamecock
Joined: 23 Jan 2015
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| Posted: 10/20/20 9:54 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| Biden has had a larger and more consistent lead than Clinton. I think his campaign is concerned that since his lead has been so big for so long, people will not show up to vote thinking they don't need to. |
And THAT is the TRUE "corruption" in federal politics. The Founding Fathers knew what the deal was, some 250 years ago. American citizens today struggle with our pitiful educational system to understand these things, even today in this politically charge climate.
We talk about rights, freedoms, liberties. Those are the sweet stuff - they work for us every minute of the day, regardless of whether we spend our days on the couch watching cartoons scarfing down cheese puffs. We don't have to do a THING - and they work for us, because we were BORN with them.
We were ALSO born with something else, that we hardly ever talk about. It's not so sweet as the other stuff. This something else, we actually HAVE to put in work, sweat, effort on to make it work for us. It does absolutely NOTHING for us unless we make it, and it may be even more important than the freedoms and liberties, and rights we all have. The Founding Fathers knew this.
But we don't care. In 1980s, the Japanese also knew. In the '80s, the Japanese were to us what today the Chinese are. The Japanese were the ones buying all our corporations, beating us in manufacturing (mostly of quality products too, like automobiles, electronics and staple appliances - not cheap, plasticky junk that the Chinese mostly bloats our markets with) and buying property rights in the U.S.
They pegged us dead to rights - they called Americans "fat, lazy, arrogant, self-entitled". Said we thought we had already won the universe, and would reside at the top of the mountain for all eternity. We didn't like it one bit, too. But they were totally right.
And we've been sliding down that mountain ever since, like it was a water park ride.
In Presidential elections, the last time north of 60% of voter-eligible turnout took place at the polls, was in 1968. Just north of 60%??? I guess democracy really doesn't matter much to Americans anymore. We love to claim our patriotism about US soldiers fighting and sacrificing their lives for the defense and protection of those rights, freedoms, and liberties, but we're too fat and lazy to do it ourselves - even when doing it doesn't require us to join a military service, or wear a military uniform, or go off to foreign lands and fight in wars.
In 2016, only 55.7% of the voting eligible population even bothered to get off their couches to go vote for the Presidency. Some 140 million of the some 250 million American Citizens old enough to vote.
Of those 55.7%, around 46% voted for Donald Trump. That represented 25% - 1 out of every 4 - of Americans who COULD HAVE VOTED, if they only cared enough to.
That of course means.......that 75% of voting eligible American citizens DID NOT vote for the man who currently sits in the Oval Office.
That has NOTHING to do with Democracy. Nothing to do with the majority vote. Trump earned no majority of the popular vote, nor a majority of the total eligible vote.
The Founding Fathers understood. The "unspoken" unalienable right given to all US Citizens - the red-headed stepchild and sibling to Freedoms and Liberties, that we have to actually WORK at to make work for us: Responsibility. It was always there.
No one else can take responsibility for us. No one. The instant that becomes a reality, then that's when we truly are NOT "free".
We call the President, Congress, the Supreme Court "leaders". In truth, they are leaders like the owner of a business promotes an employee into a supervisory role, to lead over department staffs, shift staffs, etc. Because the owner can't be everywhere at all times. But then watch that supervisor start telling that owner how he's going to do business - how it's going to be - and then watch that employee get taken down a notch or three.
That's what we mean by "leaders". But WE THE PEOPLE are still the owners of this enterprise we call the United States of America. It IS us. Congressmen, Supreme Court Justices, even Presidents.....do NOT bring ANY power or authority to the table, but their own individual rights, freedoms, and liberties they own as US Citizens. All the other powers and authorities, are OURS. We ALLOW them to use OUR powers as representatives to us.
So it was as the Founding Fathers intended it to be. The ONLY ones who own this country, is the PEOPLE. The ONLY ones who can dictate how great this country can be, are the PEOPLE. But also, the ONLY ones who can bring this country down into a smouldering rubble of garbage, is also the PEOPLE. We will be RESPONSIBLE for ALL of it.
No one can take it away from us. But very easily, WE THE PEOPLE can give it away - straight to Hell in a hand basket. That's how the Founding Fathers left it to us....
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pilight
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| Posted: 10/20/20 10:14 pm ::: |
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Part of the reason for poor turnout in the presidential elections particularly is that the vast majority of votes don't matter thanks to the electoral college. Unless you live in one of a handful of battleground states (only six flipped from 2012 to 2016) your presidential vote is irrelevant.
Congressional races are even worse. Out of 435 seats there are maybe 30 competitive races due to gerrymandering. I had a devil of a time finding information about the Democrat running in my district. Apparently he's a local dentist. That's still better than last time, when my congressman was unopposed.
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pilight
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Ex-Ref
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| Posted: 10/21/20 7:58 am ::: |
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I read this yesterday. Then laughed last night when I saw that Pence was going to do an event in Fort Wayne tomorrow. Spending time in FW is like preaching to the choir.
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FrozenLVFan
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| Posted: 10/21/20 12:31 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
Part of the reason for poor turnout in the presidential elections particularly is that the vast majority of votes don't matter thanks to the electoral college. Unless you live in one of a handful of battleground states (only six flipped from 2012 to 2016) your presidential vote is irrelevant.
Congressional races are even worse. Out of 435 seats there are maybe 30 competitive races due to gerrymandering. I had a devil of a time finding information about the Democrat running in my district. Apparently he's a local dentist. That's still better than last time, when my congressman was unopposed. |
I agree that the electoral college can invalidate the popular vote, however, I don't think the EC dissuades people from voting simply because the vast majority of eligible voters don't even know what it is. I agree with Conway Gamecock and I think that people don't vote mostly because they're apathetic, lazy, or irresponsible.
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Shades
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| Posted: 10/21/20 1:35 pm ::: |
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| <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://youtu.be/3UoPB7SvCGk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Last edited by Shades on 10/25/20 7:26 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 10/21/20 3:34 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
Part of the reason for poor turnout in the presidential elections particularly is that the vast majority of votes don't matter thanks to the electoral college. Unless you live in one of a handful of battleground states (only six flipped from 2012 to 2016) your presidential vote is irrelevant.
Congressional races are even worse. Out of 435 seats there are maybe 30 competitive races due to gerrymandering. I had a devil of a time finding information about the Democrat running in my district. Apparently he's a local dentist. That's still better than last time, when my congressman was unopposed. |
That may be PART of the reason, but I hope it's a relatively small one. And I get that: folks like NY, WY, OK or CA residents might think, "Why bother?" I still think the down-ballot voting, especially on local initiatives, can motivate people. I choose to vote at every opportunity, but not all folks do....I wish it was somehow mandatory, or tied to a *carrot*, like a tax break if one votes.
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jammerbirdi
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| Posted: 10/21/20 5:56 pm ::: |
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I would be very shocked to see Trump lose this election. Very shocked. We’ll know soon enough though. Well, actually not soon enough but you know what I mean.  _________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
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Ex-Ref
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Shades
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| Posted: 10/22/20 9:15 am ::: |
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| <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4ALyRkkUOMI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 10/22/20 10:57 am ::: |
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Trump's twitter hacked again
https://www.vn.nl/trump-twitter-hacked-again/
| Quote: |
Gevers tries a few other passwords:
!IWillAmericaGreatAgain!
MakeAmericaGreatAgain
MakeAmericaGreatAgain!
Maga2020
Maga2020!
maga2020!
Plong! At the last try, he gets kicked off the site. Or at least, that is what it seems like – for a split second. Because he then realizes, he’s back in Donald Trump’s Twitter account, just like he was 4 years ago. |
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Stonington_QB
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| Posted: 10/22/20 11:41 am ::: |
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-business-partner-email-genuine-joe-biden-advice
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Hunter Biden business partner calls email 'genuine,' says Hunter sought dad's advice on deals
Tony Bobulinski, who was listed as the recipient of an email published by the New York Post that appeared to detail a business arrangement involving a Chinese company and members of the Biden family, has confirmed that the email is "genuine" and provided more information regarding the Bidens' role in the deal.
The email includes a note that “Hunter has some office expectations he will elaborate.” A proposed equity split references “20” for “H” and “10 held by H for the big guy?” with no further details.
"The reference to 'the Big Guy' in the much publicized May 13, 2017 email is in fact a reference to Joe Biden," Bobulinski said in a statement to Fox News.
Bobulinski said he is the CEO of Sinohawk Holdings, which he explained "was a partnership between the Chinese operating through CEFC/Chairman Ye and the Biden family." He said he was brought on as CEO by Hunter Biden and James Gilliar, who was listed as the sender of the email.
Bobulinski went on to say he does not believe Joe Biden's past claim that he and Hunter did not discuss his son Hunter's business, claiming that Hunter "frequently referenced asking him for his sign-off or advice on various potential deals."
"I’ve seen Vice President Biden saying he never talked to Hunter about his business. I’ve seen firsthand that that’s not true, because it wasn’t just Hunter’s business, they said they were putting the Biden family name and its legacy on the line," Bobulinski said.
"The Biden family aggressively leveraged the Biden family name to make millions of dollars from foreign entities even though some were from communist controlled China," he added.
Bobulinksi also said that he believes that the Chinese involvement in the deal was "political or influence investment" on their part, and that "Hunter wanted to use the company as his personal piggy bank by just taking money out of it as soon as it came from the Chinese."
Bobulisnki added that the Senate Homeland Security and Finance Committees requested that he turn over "all documents relating to my business affairs with the Biden family as well as various foreign entities and individuals," and that he intends to fully cooperate.
"I have extensive relevant records and communications and I intend to produce those items to both Committees in the immediate future," he said. |
Let's see how much of this is covered in tonight's debate.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 10/22/20 12:33 pm ::: |
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I hope Trump goes all in on the emails in tonight's debate. Literally no one outside of Trump's bases gives a shit about them. So if Biden is up their talking about COVID and healthcare and white supremacists and the economic struggles of the paycheck to paycheck people who were hit the hardest by the COVID economy and who haven't felt any of this "bounce-back" that Trump keeps referencing...and Trump's answer is "Those Hunter Biden Emails..." he's gonna lose bigly.
For anyone who thinks this is another 2016, you really should be following Nate Silver and 538. Not only have the polls themselves corrected for what they saw as their mistakes in 2016 (which wasn't really that bad of mistakes...there were basically two state polls that missed the mark, the rest fell squarely within their margin of errors), but the conditions of the race this time are *much* more favorable for Biden than they were for Clinton at this point.
Namely:
1) The National Polls have him ahead by near double digits. Remember, the National Polls nailed the 2016 election. The final weighted averages by 538 suggested a Clinton popular vote win by about 2.5%. She won by about 2.1%. The EC/Popular Vote tipping point is right about there. Once you start getting above 5%, it's just not going to happen.
Now, that double digit lead could well tighten a bit in the last couple weeks. In fact, it's more likely than not to do so to some degree. Clinton's lead in the National Polls tightened significantly between Oct 20th and election day. But that brings us to significant difference #2...
2) In many/most polls, including the national ones, Biden has over 50%. In this election, as compared to 2016, there are *significantly* fewer undecided voters at this point. So for the race to tighten to any large degree, Trump would have to convince BIDEN voters to change their minds. That is much harder to do than sway someone who's still fence-sitting. It also makes the race much more resistant to last minute surprises. In 2016 the high number of undecideds were the reason the Comey letter had such an outsized impact on the election, and likely tipped the scales. A Comey letter is not going to have that effect on decided voters, thus this election is going to take something much more earth shattering to have a similar effect.
Anyone who thinks Trump is some sort of political genius rather than a one-trick pony whose trick just happened to coincide with the perfect storm of circumstance, hasn't been paying attention. He is about to get beaten in a landslide and is likely to take what should have been a safe Senate majority with him.
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jammerbirdi
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Howee
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pilight
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| Posted: 10/22/20 9:37 pm ::: |
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Down on the corner
Out in the street
Willy and the Poor Boys are playin'
Bring a nickel, tap your feet
That's my takeaway from the third debate
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justintyme
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