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GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/04/20 9:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 85: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 21,008 (1.1%) from 1,851,520 to 1,872,528
- deaths increased by 1,033 (1.0%) from 107,175 to 108,208
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.79% to 5.78%

Five deadliest states today: NY 117, IL 115, PA 115, NJ 100, CA 63

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 1492, MEX 1092, USA 1033, IND 275, UK 176


U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.





____________________________________________________________

The number of U.S. deaths on the official CDC website is always much lower than the total on the Johns Hopkins website, which is always somewhat lower than the Worldometer site. The current total death count as of today per the CDC is 90,313.

Why these discrepancies? Only the Shadow knows . . . in the fog of coronavirus data voodoo.
_____________________________________________________________

As reported yesterday, three recent published studies of CV19 therapeutics were being re-evaluated because of a suspect company data source. Today, the authors of the study re hydroxychloroquine causing heart arrhythmia in the prestigious journal The Lancet formally retracted the article, because the company that supplied the patient data refuses to release the data sets for independent peer review.

This is reminiscent of Neil Ferguson's refusal to release the programming code for the infamously incorrect Imperial College death model that spooked Boris Johnson and Donald Trump into lockdowns.
_____________________________________________________________

Reopening schools won’t threaten children or adults, argues epidemiologist Daniel T. Halperin in a Washington Post commentary. Children are less likely to become infected, much less likely to become seriously ill and “are not significant transmitters of Covid-19."

Quote:
Of about 360,000 covid-19 deaths worldwide, only about two dozen children are known to have died. For all the recent reports of serious complications among young people, these are statistically rare and, if detected early, most afflicted youths recover within weeks.

. . . . More than 200 U.S. children were killed last year by flu; some 10,000 others died from various childhood diseases. A rare condition that is not commonly fatal does not justify keeping 55 million American students home into the next academic year.


But could children infect their family members? It’s not likely, writes Halperin. “In Denmark and Norway, where schools began reopening in mid-April, covid-19 cases and deaths have decreased.” I have reported these school reopening studies in earlier posts.
____________________________________________________________

The Congressional Budget Office analyzed the economic effects of the $600 per week federal add-on to state unemployment benefits, and concluded:

Quote:
Roughly five of every six recipients would receive benefits that exceeded the weekly amounts they could expect to earn from work . . . .


Even a coronavirus modeling expert should be able to figure out that this makes no sense.
____________________________________________________________


A wag named Razor on Twitter, points a laser without being bitter . . . .





____________________________________________________________
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/05/20 9:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 86: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 24,711 (1.3%) from 1,872,528 to 1,897,239
- deaths increased by 919 (0.8%) from 108,208 to 109,127
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.78% to 5.75%

Five deadliest states today:
NY 91, PA 86, NJ 76, CA 74, IL 59

Five deadliest countries today:
BRZ 1008, USA 919, MEX 816, UK 357, IND 286

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




____________________________________________________________

The head of emergency services at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center gave a report yesterday, similar to that of the doctors in Italy, to the effect that the virus seems to be "changing" and that its "potency is diminished."

Quote:
Donald Yealy, M.D., chair, Department of Emergency Medicine for UPMC and the University of Pittsburgh said today that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the communities they serve has diminished.

“The virus may be changing,” Dr. Yealy said, “some patterns suggest the potency is diminished.”

"People are either not contracting the virus as easily as they were previously, cases are less severe . . . ."

Dr. Yealy reported that of the nearly 30,000 tested throughout the UPMC system, they’ve found the overall positivity rate to be below 4%.
. . . .
At this point, a person’s risk of being in a car crash if that person traveled end-to-end across the Pennsylvania Turnpike “is greater than the risk of testing positive for asymptomatic COVID symptoms,” said Dr. Yealy.

____________________________________________________________

UnHerd has posted its most recent video interview, all of which I've linked in this thread. This one is with Professor Karl Friston, whom Science magazine ranked as the most influential neuroscience statistician in the world.

Based on statistical models, Friston believes that different people in different places have different natural susceptibilities to the CV19 virus, caused by an unknown "immunological dark matter." He calculates that only 20% of people may be susceptible.

Quote:
. . . the numbers point to the same thing: that the “effective susceptible population” was never 100%, and was at most 50% and probably more like only 20% of the population. He emphasises that the analysis is not yet complete, but “I suspect, once this has been done, it will look like the effective non-susceptible portion of the population will be about 80%. I think that’s what’s going to happen.”

___________________________________________________________

Studies of hydroxychoroquine continue to be ambiguous, if not contradictory and controversial. In a randomized study:

Hydroxychloroquine drug in University of Minnesota trial does little to prevent COVID-19

Quote:
There was a small difference, as 11.8% of people taking the drug developed COVID-19, compared with 14.3% of those taking vitamins, the study showed. However, that difference was considered statistically insignificant.

____________________________________________________________

Meanwhile, awaiting an overwhelming CV19 surge that never came, hospitals all over the country are relatively empty and:

COVID-19 pandemic causes 42% drop in ER visits nationwide

Quote:
Visits to hospital U.S. emergency rooms have dropped by more than 40 percent so far in 2020, compared to the same period last year, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The statistics indicate that a significant number of Americans may have delayed or declined emergency care because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the agency said.

___________________________________________________________

Only the lonely, know this feeling ain't right . . . .

GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/06/20 10:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 87: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 22,191 (1.2%) from 1,897,239 to 1,919,430
- deaths increased by 664 (0.6%) from 109,127 to 109,791
- crude death rate decreased from 5.75% to 5.72%

Five deadliest states today: IL 69, CA 66, NJ 64, MA 54, MD 38

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 910, USA 664, MEX 625, IND 297, UK 204

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




____________________________________________________________

More from the Rinky-Dink Data Behind Expert Covid Science Department:

Two days ago, it was reported here that the Lancet had retracted a study on hydroxychloroquine because underlying patient data from a mysterious company called Surgisphere could not be validated. Today, the New England Journal of Medicine has retracted another CV19 study (on ACE inhibitors) for the same reason.

The WHO had ceased hydroxychlorquine clinical trials because of these studies, but has now restarted those trials after the retractions.

The Guardian reports that Surgisphere has only three employees, one being a science fiction writer and another being an "adult-content model".

Lemmingly recite "follow the science" . . . gag . . . rinse . . . spit out . . . repeat . . . .
____________________________________________________________

In China, Second Wave Coronavirus Narrative Fails To Hold

Quote:
Great news for markets: data out of China tells us that the second wave of the coronavirus is unsurfable. It’s flat. There is no wave to catch.

If there is no meaningful second wave months after lifting restrictions in Wuhan, then there might not be any meaningful second waves anywhere else. Markets are already onto this line of thinking.


Yeah, but the data's from . . . China.
____________________________________________________________

Brit-American-Israeli Nobel Prize Winner Michael Levitt: “Lock-Downs May Have Cost Lives”

Quote:
Nobel-prize-winning scientist from Stanford said in an interview published Sunday that, according to his models, the lock-downs didn’t save lives, but actually caused more deaths . . . .
. . . .
“I think it may have cost lives. It will have saved a few road accident lives – things like that – but social damage – domestic abuse, divorces, alcoholism – has been extreme. And then you have those who were not treated for other conditions.”

____________________________________________________________

Yet another study, this one from the University of Warwick in England, says that:

Reopening schools completely will not cause second coronavirus wave
____________________________________________________________


Hypocrisy is such a riot . . . .



____________________________________________________________
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/07/20 10:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 88: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 22,548 (1.2%) from 1,919,430 to 1,941,978
- deaths increased by 722 (0.7%) from 109,791 to 110,513
- crude death rate decreased from 5.72% to 5.69%

Five deadliest states today: NJ 70, NY 41, IL 40, CA 29, MA 27

Five deadliest countries today: USA 722, CHL 649, BRZ 642, MEX 341, IND 261

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




______________________________________________________________

While the number of daily cases is only slightly declining, the positivity rate for tests is now below 5% nationally per the chart below, and was reported yesterday to be about 1% in NYC.



The number of cases is being buoyed up by the increasing number of tests, but the significant decline in positive tests percentage is a very good trend.
__________________________________________________________

Oxford scientists thought to be leading the global race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine are reportedly also close to a major breakthrough on a life-saving antibody treatment.

Quote:
The Oxford University team have been confident about their work on a vaccine for coronavirus, with millions of doses already being manufactured by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca in the expectation that it will work.

And there is now similar confidence that a separate project to create an antibody treatment for those especially vulnerable to COVID-19 will also prove successful, with testing now said to be moving at "full speed".

____________________________________________________________

The Pandemic Sent 1.5 Billion Children Home From School. Many Might Not Return.

Quote:
Authorities in the U.S. and Europe are desperately trying to stop children from dropping out of school permanently

____________________________________________________________

Heartburn drug Pepcid may ease COVID-19 symptoms

Quote:
Famotidine, sold under the brand name Pepcid, appeared to improve symptoms in a group of 10 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, researchers reported online June 4 in the journal Gut.

____________________________________________________________

Highly successful novelist and former NY Times reporter Alex Berenson was banned by Amazon just two days ago from publishing the first chapter of his book on Covid-19, which is based entirely on published data and reports. Amazon caved when Elon Musk tweeted that the Amazon monopoly should be broken up. As of this typing, Berenson's first chapter, titled Unreported Truths about COVID-19 and Lockdowns: Part 1: Introduction and Death Counts and Estimates , is #4 in overall books on Amazon and #3 in Kindle books.

I recommend it. He's doing essentially what I am . . . to a slightly larger audience.
____________________________________________________________

LIBERAL, noun

: someone who respects many different types of beliefs or behavior
: one who is open-minded or not strict in the observance of orthodox, traditional, or established forms or ways





tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8105



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PostPosted: 06/08/20 7:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

In China, Second Wave Coronavirus Narrative Fails To Hold

Quote:
Great news for markets: data out of China tells us that the second wave of the coronavirus is unsurfable. It’s flat. There is no wave to catch.

If there is no meaningful second wave months after lifting restrictions in Wuhan, then there might not be any meaningful second waves anywhere else. Markets are already onto this line of thinking.


China got their cases down to zero (at least on some days) before relaxing. That is, they ended the first wave. The USA and others are relaxing in the middle of the first wave. They need to worry about getting out of the first wave, not hoping there won't be a second because a country who ended their first and is monitoring travelers - something we are unlikely to do - has no second.

Quote:
Yeah, but the data's from . . . China.


No need to distrust China. It only took them a critical 6 weeks to say that the coronavirus could be transmitted between humans after they had first observed it was being transmitted between humans.


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 55013



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PostPosted: 06/08/20 9:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

From the Swedish Envy Department:

Norway 'could have controlled infection without lockdown': health chief

Quote:
The head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health believes Norway could have brought the coronavirus pandemic under control without a lockdown, and called for the country to avoid such far-reaching measures if hit by a second wave.


<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/n7rdc0Zhb-0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



_________________
Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/08/20 9:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 89: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 18,664 (1.0%) from 1,941,978 to 1,960,642
- deaths increased by 477 (0.4%) from 110,513 to 110,990
- crude death rate decreased from 5.69% to 5.66%

Five deadliest states today: NJ 76, NY 74, MA 37, GA 28, MD-OH-RI 27

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 813, USA 477, IND 266, MEX 188, RUS 112

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




____________________________________________________________

I'm no longer sure what revision the fickle IHME model is at -- more than 12 -- but the June 8 median prediction is 145,000 deaths in the U.S., with an uncertainty interval from 136,000 to 166,000.
_____________________________________________________________

In another about-face reminiscent of its confusion and reversals about the fatality rate and the efficacy of masks, the WHO now says:

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare ’

Quote:
Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the disease could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.
. . . .
“From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”


This multiple personality disorder on the part of WHO must be driving the YouTube censor to paranoia if not schizophrenia because, let's recall, she said she would ban YouTube videos that are inconsistent with WHO's Oracle at Delphi "expert" recommendations.
____________________________________________________________

Michigan Supreme Court Unanimously Rules Defiant Barber Had Right To Work Despite Governor’s Orders

Even the liberal judges voted for the barber, with the opinion forcefully saying: "It is incumbent on the courts to ensure decisions are made according to the rule of law, not hysteria."
____________________________________________________________

Experts Wrong Again About Economic Recovery As States Lift Lockdowns

Quote:
. . . last week everyone seemed to be taken by surprise. Instead of depression-era unemployment rates of 20%, over two million more Americans got their jobs back, most of them in states that have given up on the lockdowns. Unemployment is now around 13.5%.

The experts were wrong again. In a good way.


Recent data show that, in general, job postings fell less and are increasing more rapidly in red states than blue states.


____________________________________________________________

Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
Mum mum mum mum mum mum
Get a job, sha na na na, sha na na na na . . . .


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/09/20 10:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 90: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 25,028 (1.3%) from 1,960,642 to 1,985,670
- deaths increased by 999 (0.9%) from 110,990 to 111,989
- crude death rate decreased from 5.66% to 5.64%

Five deadliest states today: NY 87, NJ 77, CA 96, IL 94, MA 55

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 1185, USA 999, MEX 354, UK 286, IND 277

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

REPORT: Over 95% of UK “Covid19” deaths had “pre-existing condition” (emphases in original)

Quote:
Over 95% of “COVID Deaths” recorded in England and Wales had potentially serious comorbidities, according to statistics released by NHS England.

The latest figures make for pretty stark reading. Or, rather, they would make for stark reading…if they didn’t follow the exact same pattern already shown in other nations around the world.
. . . .
Simply put: Of the 27045 deaths with Covid19 in English hospitals (up to June 3rd), only 1318 had no pre-existing conditions. That’s less than 5%.



____________________________________________________________

Not very surprising considering the Kiwi geographic isolation and restrictive immigration, but a significant development nevertheless:

New Zealand says coronavirus 'eliminated,' lifts all domestic restrictions
____________________________________________________________

Much, much more from the Alice in Wonderland Follow the "Expert Scientists" Down the Rabbit Hole Department:

--> Tribalism Comes for Pandemic Science

Quote:
Can our polarized country act on provisional knowledge?


--> Public Health Experts are Embarrassing Themselves

Quote:
. . . claiming that the protests' positive effects on public health will exceed the harms from the spread of coronavirus is an assertion of faith, not science.


--> They Blinded Us With “Science”

Quote:
Throughout the pandemic, political leaders have consistently relied on questionable expert guidance—and ducked responsibility for their own choices.


--> The real enemy? Infectious disease ‘experts’

Quote:
Current mandatory social distancing measures promoted by infectious disease experts throughout the West are highly reminiscent of the Soviet and Chinese experience with Lysenkoism. This type of policy response to the pandemic has many pseudo-scientific elements and has led to the establishment of a new, destructive, and even deviant state-sponsored religion.


--> The Pandemic Is Exposing the Limits of Science

Quote:
The financial crisis tarnished the field of economics. Will the coronavirus do the same for medicine?

____________________________________________________________

Yesterday, a top expert at WHO, reminiscent of the swivel-hipped Galloping Ghost, said that infectious transmission from asymptomatic individuals is "very rare". Today, WHO is reversing field yet again. Sort of. Maybe. Who knows? Not WHO.

‘We don’t actually have that answer yet’: WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19
___________________________________________________________


WHO's on first . . . .

<iframe width="480" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kTcRRaXV-fg" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/10/20 11:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 91: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 14,794 (0.7%) from 1,985,670 to 2,000,464
- deaths increased by 935 (0.8%) from 111,989 to 112,924
- crude death rate remained the same at 5.64%

Five deadliest states today: NJ-CA 98, NY-ILL 77, PA 75

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 1300, USA 935, MEX 596, IND 388, UK 245

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

School age children more likely to be hit by lightning than die of coronavirus

Quote:
Schoolchildren under the age of 15 are more likely to be hit by lightning than die from coronavirus, new figures suggest . . . .

Scientists from the universities of Cambridge and Oxford have called for "rational debate" based on the "tiny" risk to children, suggesting that if no vaccine is found in future it may be better for younger people to continue with their lives while the more vulnerable are shielded.


These data are consistent with several earlier studies such as this one:

No reported case of a child passing coronavirus to an adult exists, evidence review shows

Quote:
There has not been a single reported instance of a child under 10 transmitting the virus, even in contact tracing carried out by WHO

____________________________________________________________

Preliminary findings released yesterday for a U.S.-based clinical trial of anti-parasite drug ivermectin found that the mortality rate for coronavirus patients fell from 25% to 15%, according to the paper published on Medrxiv.org, which would equate to a 40% drop in mortality.
____________________________________________________________

Norwegian virologist claims coronavirus is 'chimera' made in Chinese lab

Quote:
A study, authored by University of London Professor Angus Dalgleish and Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen and published in Cambridge University's QRB Discovery, claims that Sars-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19, did not evolve naturally but rather was artificially manipulated. Specifically, the authors allege that the spike proteins of the virus contain "inserted sections."

____________________________________________________________

Coronavirus rips through Dutch mink farms, triggering culls to prevent human infections

She would be devastated:


____________________________________________________________


Old friends, old friends
Sat on their park bench like bookends . . . .

I am a rock
I am an island . . . .



calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4404
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 06/11/20 12:04 am    ::: Re: Coronavirus Deaths, Death Rates, Testing, Other Stats Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
In this thread I will calculate from time to time the current death rates from coronavirus worldwide and in various countries. The data will be derived from the Johns Hopkins coronavirus website.

I have a tentative hypothesis that the worldwide death rate is currently distorted upwards by the huge numbers in China, which had grossly insufficient hospital space and likely has a medical system closer to third world than first world, and by Italy, which also has a shortage of hospital space.

The format will be Deaths/Confirmed Cases = Death Rate

As a reference point, the death rate for seasonal flu in the U.S. is about 0.10%.

____________________

Worldwide: 4,630/126,136 = 3.67%

(Editorial comment: Note that the worldwide deaths from CV are only ~20% of the >20,000 deaths from this season's flu in the U.S alone.)



Three months later it is a good time to look at your original assumptions. Clearly the severity of Covid-19 is far greater than what I believe you and many others believed 3 months ago. 115,000 deaths and about 1000 more each day. The deaths from Covid-19 are already more than 5 times the annual deaths from flu. There are many things we still don't really know but we are learning about the spread of the virus and while I believe a healthy skepticism combined with a willingness to learn from data.

The most disappointing aspect of this situation is that the people most interested in opening the economy are the least willing to take appropriate steps to contain the virus. Wearing masks seems to do a good job of limiting spread in casual encounters. Outdoor spread appears to be significantly less than indoor spread. The most dangerous situations occur when people are indoors for a long period of time in close quarters with other people, as in prisons, meat packing and churches. And even in those situations it appears that reasonable containment strategies can have a significant impact. Social distancing is important, and paired with mandatory mask-wearing can dramatically reduce the spread. Less noise will also help as loud talking or singing increases the spread.

If people would heed the warning I believe we could get back to a new normal with significantly less spread going forward. But science denial has stood in the way of dealing with this crisis. I believe your posts have been helpful in laying out data. Let's hope people can learn from it.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/11/20 10:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 92: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 22,024 (1.1%) from 2,000,464 to 2,022,488
- deaths increased by 879 (0.8%) from 112,924 to 113,803
- crude death rate decreased from 5.64% to 5.63%

Five deadliest states today: ILL 90, NJ 85, CA 71, NY 61, FL 48

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 1261, USA 879, MEX 708, IND 394, PER 206

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THE U.S. HAS HAD SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT DEATHS SINCE THE LAST WEEK IN MARCH.

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

Here are daily deaths curves for various countries as of today:


_____________________________________________________________

The IHME model has been revised again to project deaths out to October 1 instead of stopping at August 4, which all prior revisions did. It projects a median of 169,000 for the U.S.

It makes sense that the down slope from peak deaths is so gradual in the U.S. The country is so large, geographically and population-wise, that it is really a huge composite of many different outbreaks, some rising and falling much later than the concentrated, high population early hotspots in the northeast.
_____________________________________________________________

Nevertheless, a University of Maryland study says that CV19 seems to be seasonal.

This is consistent with a study of other corona viruses, which concludes:

Quote:
Coronaviruses are sharply seasonal. They appear, based on serial interval and secondary infection risk, to have similar transmission potential to influenza A(H3N2) in the same population.

____________________________________________________________

Experts in Germany and the U.K. who are skeptical of the politicized media narrative say:

--> Lockdown was unnecessary, claims German virologist

--> [L]eading expert argues Britain's crisis peaked BEFORE lockdown and claims fatality rate could be as low as 0.1%

--> Prof Karol Sikora: Covid-19 death toll may be less than half of what has been recorded
___________________________________________________________

Estrogen and testosterone therapies may decrease severity of COVID-19 . . . which, if true, suggests that one of the reasons the virus targets old people is because they have depleted sex hormones.
____________________________________________________________


And that's why birds do it, bees do it
Even educated fleas do it . . . .



Luuuc
#NATC


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Posts: 20477



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PostPosted: 06/11/20 11:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
It makes sense that the down slope from peak deaths is so gradual in the U.S. The country is so large, geographically and population-wise, that it is really a huge composite of many different outbreaks, some rising and falling much later than the concentrated, high population early hotspots in the northeast.

You left out by far the biggest factor - that the whole country has been completely half-arsing its response from the start.
("likely third world medical system" China is quite populous and geographically large too if I'm not mistaken.)



_________________
Is there gas in the car?
Yes there's gas in the car.
GlennMacGrady



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Posts: 6326
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PostPosted: 06/12/20 10:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 93: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 26,536 (1.3%) from 2,022,488 to 2,049,024
- deaths increased by 869 (0.8%) from 113,803 to 114,672
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.63% to 5.60%

Five deadliest states today: NY 83, ILL 75, NJ 49, CA 47, MA 46

Five deadliest countries today: USA 869, BRZ 843, MEX 587, IND 389, CHL 222

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%
869 – 6/12 5.60%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

New research shows that, while hypertension increases mortality risk especially if uncontrolled, two of the most prescribed classes of medications for hypertension, ACE inhibitors and ARB's, don't increase the mortality risk and may even lower it. As this article puts it:

Quote:
Hypertensive patients have a two-fold increased risk of dying from the coronavirus COVID-19 compared to patients without high blood pressure, according to new research published in the European Heart Journal. In addition, if the hypertension is untreated, the risk is greater.

But perhaps more significantly, the researchers found that those patients whose hypertension was treated with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibiting drugs ( which includes ACE2 inhibitors and ARB’s ) had lower mortality than those who were not, suggesting that these drugs may be protective in COVID-19 patients instead of detrimental as previously suggested.

____________________________________________________________

WSJ: The Second Wave Covid Scare:
The numbers are better than the headlines, and reopening is necessary.


Quote:
Stocks sold off Thursday amid investor worries that a “second wave” of coronavirus infections could cause countries and states that are reopening to lock down again. But headlines about a coronavirus resurgence in the U.S. are overblown so far, and the bigger threat is keeping the economy in a coma.


Much social and mainstream media, such as the NY Times and WaPo, continue with scare stories about increases in cases and infections and outbreaks. But anyone who follows the data even superficially can see that, since peaking in late April, daily cases have been going down even though continuously buoyed up by increases in PCR testing, and that daily deaths and test positivity rates are also decreasing across the U.S. as a whole.
_____________________________________________________________

Here's a breath of fresh air:

COVID-19 infection risk low for people who perform CPR
_____________________________________________________________

What happened to CV19 infections in Wisconsin after May 15 when the state's Supreme Court threw out the governor's lockdown orders? One answer here:

The lessons from Wisconsin’s lockdown lifting

Quote:
What happened in the two weeks following the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s decision has now been studied by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Its conclusion? There was no discernible effect on the infection rate. This was not necessarily much to do with the virus itself, however. Wisconsin’s 5.8 million residents simply refused to exercise their new found freedoms. Rather they continued with their own self-imposed lockdown.

____________________________________________________________

Politics makes strange bedfellows

. . . meets . . .

I think, therefore I am

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GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/13/20 10:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 94: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 26,502 (1.2%) from 2,049,024 to 2,074,526
- deaths increased by 730 (0.6%) from 114,672 to 115,402
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.60% to 5.56%

Five deadliest states today: NJ 95, CA 74, NY 50, FL 47, OH 40

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 890, USA 730, MEX 504, IND 309, CHL 231

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%
869 – 6/12 5.60%
730 – 6/13 5.56%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

This chart shows how the positivity rate has plunged below 5% among the national population as the number of tests has rapidly increased. And, remember, it's still primarily people who are showing symptoms who get tested.



This dynamic could mean a few different things about the prevalence and infectiousness of the virus, which informed readers can figure out for themselves without any so-called expert, reporter or blogger giving their opinions.
___________________________________________________________

Studies like this: Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

Quote:
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
. . . .
The tests are finding large numbers of people in the U.S. who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.


Plus evidence like this: Before Catching Coronavirus, Some People’s Immune Systems Are Already Primed to Fight It

Quote:
Some people who have never encountered the pathogen before appear to be able to mobilize parts of their immune system to ward it off.


Naturally lead many to ask: Did the Experts Fail Again?

Quote:
It would be difficult to surpass the Iraq blunder, but emerging evidence on COVID-19 suggests the experts—again: lawmakers, bureaucrats, and media—may have subjected us to a blunder of equally disastrous proportions.

____________________________________________________________

Coronavirus lockdowns are worsening child obesity

Quote:
Coronavirus lockdowns are worsening child obesity due to less physical activity and poorer diets, including increased intake of crisps, red meat and sugary drinks.

US researchers found obese kids in Italy ate more junk food and watched more TV at the expense of physical activity during the Covid-19 social distancing measures.

Compared with this time last year, children ate one extra meal and added nearly five hours of screen time per day, while cutting physical activity by more than two hours a week.

___________________________________________________________


One potato, two potato
Three potato, four . . . .



Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 55013



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PostPosted: 06/13/20 10:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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_________________
Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/14/20 11:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 95: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 19,532 (0.9%) from to 2,074,526 to 2,094,058
- deaths increased by 330 (0.3%) from 115,402 to 115,732 (fewest daily deaths since March 29)
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.56% to 5.53%

Five deadliest states today: MA 48, NY-NJ 37, CA 27, ILL 19

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 598, MEX 424, USA 330, IND 321, CHL 222

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%
869 – 6/12 5.60%
730 – 6/13 5.56%
330 – 6/14 5.53%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

In the U.K. deaths per day peaked in mid-April, about the same time as the U.S., but are declining more rapidly than in the U.S., which is consistent with its much smaller geographic area and population.


_____________________________________________________________

We've been focused a lot on deaths and death rates in this thread, but hospitalization rates are equally important in understanding and predicting the dynamics of the virus. This CDC chart shows U.S. hospitalizations (and by age group) for CV19 since the first week in March through the first week in June. Again, there is a peak in Mid April and a consistent decline.


____________________________________________________________

Here's another CDC chart, which breaks down in detail the underlying conditions of U.S. CV19 hospitalizations.


____________________________________________________________

Another thing that's declining is media panic-porn and hysteria.

Coronavirus Hysteria Is Over

Quote:
The disease isn’t over, but the hysteria is. For many, the turning point came when public health “experts” who had bitterly denounced demonstrations against shutdowns as health hazards, responded to the Black Lives Matter riots with silence and, often, enthusiastic endorsement. That lasted until President Trump announced his intention to resume holding rallies. Once again, we are told that public gatherings are a vitally important health threat. It isn’t hard to understand the game that is being played here.

____________________________________________________________


Pumping irony . . . .


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/15/20 9:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 96: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 19,430 (0.9%) from 2,094,058 to 2,113,488
- deaths increased by 403 (0.3%) from 115,732 to 116,135
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.53% to 5.49%

Five deadliest states today: NJ 49, GA 43, NY 41, PA 32, CA 30

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 729, USA 403, IND 395, MEX 269, PER 172

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%
869 – 6/12 5.60%
730 – 6/13 5.56%
330 – 6/14 5.53%
403 – 6/15 5.49%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

Here is an updated weekly death chart reaffirming how focused the mortality is on sick people over age 75.



In contrast to the old-age focus of disease, the all-age blunderbuss lockdown cure has actually interfered with a prioritized protection of the elderly. This public health and political stupidity is being increasingly criticized by:

--> Economists:

Quote:
For most people under the age of 65, the study found, the risk of dying from Covid-19 isn’t much higher than from getting in a car accident driving to work. In California and Florida, the fatality risk for the under-65 crowd is about equal to driving 16 to 17 miles per day. While higher in hot spots like New York (668 miles) and New Jersey (572 miles), the death risk is still lower than the public perceives.

Future historians will be astonished to ruminate about what we did here. We shut down schools, sports, theaters, bars, restaurants, and churches – government ignored the rule of law and put individual rights on hold – but it is more than obvious now that this was all a huge distraction. The focus should have been on the aged with underlying conditions living in nursing homes.


--> And doctors:

Quote:
Seniors are becoming COVID-19 collateral damage. They're dying because of it, not of it.

Coronavirus has led to social isolation and lack of caregiver support. That can be fatal for fragile elderly people who don't have the virus
.
_____________________________________________________________

And here's another horrible side effect of the lack of focus on the elderly and nursing homes: tens of millions of people around the world, mostly children, have been afraid to stand in vaccination lines for other deadly diseases. Guess what the result of that is.

Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases

Quote:
Many mass immunization efforts worldwide were halted this spring to prevent spread of the virus at crowded inoculation sites. The consequences have been alarming.

____________________________________________________________


“People who don’t cherish their elderly have forgotten whence they came and whither they go.” — Ramsey Clark


FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 1952



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PostPosted: 06/16/20 3:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How convenient to omit the fatalities for ages 45-75.


PUmatty



Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 15425
Location: Chicago


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PostPosted: 06/16/20 4:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
How convenient to omit the fatalities for ages 45-75.


These posts are nothing if not in bad faith.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/16/20 10:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 97: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 24,219 (1.1%) from 2,113,488 to 2,137,707
- deaths increased by 827 (0.7%) from 116,135 to 116,962
- crude death rate decreased from to 5.49% to 5.47%

Five deadliest states today: CA 86, ILL 72, NJ-FL 55, NY-TX 46

Five deadliest countries today: IND 2006, BRZ 1338, USA 827, MEX 439, UK 233

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%
869 – 6/12 5.60%
730 – 6/13 5.56%
330 – 6/14 5.53%
403 – 6/15 5.49%
827 – 6/16 5.47%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

The coronovirus with an overall mortality rate per population of 0.04% is the fourth worst flu-like disease in US history.



I've lived through all but the Spanish Flu and distinctly recall no hysteria, no media panic-porn, and no calls for social distancing or lockdowns. Those terms weren't even in the vocabulary. The flus became more or less cyclical, everyone accepted them as just another one of the thousands of health, accident and natural disaster risks in this world, and life went on. Until the internet and smart phones.
____________________________________________________________

More nursing home data:

--> Nursing Homes Account For Over 40% Of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

Quote:
. . . reaffirming concerns that the country’s oldest and most vulnerable have not been adequately protected during the pandemic.


--> As U.S. Nursing-Home Deaths Reach 50,000, States Ease Lockdowns
____________________________________________________________

Another possible therapeutic pops up:

Steroid dexamethasone reduces deaths among patients with severe COVID-19 - trial shows

Quote:
Giving low doses of the generic steroid drug dexamethasone to patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 reduced death rates by around a third among those with the most severe cases of infection, trial data showed on Tuesday.

The results, described as a "major breakthrough" by scientists leading the UK-led clinical trial known as RECOVERY, suggest the drug should immediately become standard care in patients treated in hospital with the pandemic disease, the researchers said.

___________________________________________________________

According to a National Bureau of Economic Research study, lockdowns have crushed small businesses to the largest degree on record, especially African-American owned businesses.

Quote:
The number of active business owners in the United States plummeted by 3.3 million or 22 percent over the crucial two-month window from February to April 2020. The drop in business owners was the largest on record, and losses were felt across nearly all industries and even for incorporated businesses. African-American businesses were hit especially hard experiencing a 41 percent drop. Latinx business owners fell by 32 percent, and Asian business owners dropped by 26 percent.

____________________________________________________________


Brother, can you spare a dime?


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13030
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 06/17/20 9:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
I've lived through all but the Spanish Flu and distinctly recall no hysteria, no media panic-porn, and no calls for social distancing or lockdowns. Those terms weren't even in the vocabulary. The flus became more or less cyclical, everyone accepted them as just another one of the thousands of health, accident and natural disaster risks in this world, and life went on. Until the internet and smart phones.


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

Clearly, you've lived through dire times. Therefore, I'd suggest this is all of no concern to you, and you'd do well to put your time to better use than composing these blatherings. Why not go down to a Covid ward in NYC, and volunteer your time there, alongside the nurses? And since you're impervious to all of it, you'd undoubtedly have no need for a mask.

In 3 short months, our country has now passed the number of American military deaths from all of WWI. Numbers that could have been greatly lowered, if not for the Idiot in Chief. And all in just 3 months! Nothing to be hysterical about here, folks. Laughing Laughing Laughing



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Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8105



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PostPosted: 06/17/20 7:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Quote:
I've lived through all but the Spanish Flu and distinctly recall no hysteria, no media panic-porn, and no calls for social distancing or lockdowns. Those terms weren't even in the vocabulary. The flus became more or less cyclical, everyone accepted them as just another one of the thousands of health, accident and natural disaster risks in this world, and life went on. Until the internet and smart phones.


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

Clearly, you've lived through dire times. Therefore, I'd suggest this is all of no concern to you, and you'd do well to put your time to better use than composing these blatherings. Why not go down to a Covid ward in NYC, and volunteer your time there, alongside the nurses? And since you're impervious to all of it, you'd undoubtedly have no need for a mask.


Glenn has repeatedly emphasized that the old are the ones at much greater risk. And he is old. I have never heard him say that he, although old, would not be at risk. His thread is now a known thing, and not hard to skip.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13030
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 06/17/20 8:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Howee wrote:
Quote:
I've lived through all but the Spanish Flu and distinctly recall no hysteria, no media panic-porn, and no calls for social distancing or lockdowns. Those terms weren't even in the vocabulary. The flus became more or less cyclical, everyone accepted them as just another one of the thousands of health, accident and natural disaster risks in this world, and life went on. Until the internet and smart phones.


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

Clearly, you've lived through dire times. Therefore, I'd suggest this is all of no concern to you, and you'd do well to put your time to better use than composing these blatherings. Why not go down to a Covid ward in NYC, and volunteer your time there, alongside the nurses? And since you're impervious to all of it, you'd undoubtedly have no need for a mask.


Glenn has repeatedly emphasized that the old are the ones at much greater risk. And he is old. I have never heard him say that he, although old, would not be at risk. His thread is now a known thing, and not hard to skip.

ANYONE who is 'at risk' AND posts the above propaganda needs to be called out on it, imo, in line with the old adage, "Put your money where your mouth is." If it's really No Big Deal, why might he not go see for himself whether or not his perceptions are real or false?

Counterpoints can be refreshing from time to time, no? Wink



_________________
Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6326
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 06/17/20 10:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 98: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 25,583 (1.2%) from 2,137,707 to 2,163,290
- deaths increased by 755 (0.6%) from 116,962 to 117,717
- crude death rate decreased from 5.47% to 5.44%

Five deadliest states today: ILL 87, CA 81, MA 69, NJ 54, NY 48

Five deadliest countries today: BRZ 1209, USA 755, MEX 730, IND 341, CHL 232

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.05%
1779 – 5/14 6.06%
1632 – 5/15 6.07%
1224 – 5/16 6.05%
796 – 5/17 6.02%
790 – 5/18 5.99%
1581 – 5/19 6.02%
1518 – 5/20 6.02%
1263 – 5/21 6.00%
1277 – 5/22 5.99%
1108 – 5/23 5.98%
633 – 5/24 5.95%
500 – 5/25 5.91%
682 – 5/26 5.88%
1516 – 5/27 5.91%
1179 – 5/28 5.90%
1211 – 5/29 5.89%
960 – 5/30 5.86%
613 – 5/31 5.83%
784 – 6/01 5.81%
1105 – 6/02 5.80%
995 – 6/03 5.79%
1033 – 6/04 5.78%
919 – 6/05 5.75%
664 – 6/06 5.72%
722 – 6/07 5.69%
477 – 6/08 5.66%
999 – 6/09 5.64%
935 – 6/10 5.64%
879 – 6/11 5.63%
869 – 6/12 5.60%
730 – 6/13 5.56%
330 – 6/14 5.53%
403 – 6/15 5.49%
827 – 6/16 5.47%
755 – 6/17 5.44%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.





_____________________________________________________________

This article lists many evidence-based key facts about CV19:

COVID-19: An evidence-based guide

Quote:
What is the scientific and medical basis for the measures being put in place for COVID-19? Should we wear face-masks? Is social distancing helpful? Will easing lockdown lead to more deaths? Many people are afraid but all the evidence shows that most of us have nothing to fear. The great majority of people, even in the highest risk groups, will be fine.

____________________________________________________________

The Data Are In: It’s Time for Major Reopening

Quote:
Four new analyses of actual results show how the initial projections overestimated the value of lockdowns.

_____________________________________________________________

Early test results show few protesters caught COVID-19

Quote:
Early data from coronavirus tests of Minnesotans who participated in demonstrations after the death of George Floyd suggest the mass gatherings may not result in a spike in COVID-19 infections.

____________________________________________________________

Most asymptomatic COVID-19 cases stay that way, small study says

Quote:
Are many of these "asymptomatic" carriers simply in a stage of infection that later moves on to symptomatic COVID-19?

No, suggests a small, new study of cruise ship passengers and crew
.
____________________________________________________________

Denmark says easing lockdown has not caused increase in Covid-19 infections

Quote:
Denmark, the first country in Europe to relax its coronavirus lockdown said on Wednesday that the spread of Covid-19 has not accelerated since it eased restrictions and began the second phase of reopening society last month

____________________________________________________________

Another Judge Rules That Ohio's COVID-19 Lockdown Is Illegal

Quote:
The decision says the "unbridled and unfettered consolidation of authority in one unelected official" violates due process and the separation of powers.

____________________________________________________________


Pauline, we hardly knew ye . . . .

tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8105



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PostPosted: 06/18/20 10:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

USA deaths are moving down more than new cases. Could be from more testing. But Dr. Haseltine in this interview says that there has been a huge postive change in mortality rates of people that go on ventilators from when this started to now. One thing that has helped is putting people on their stomach. And using anti-coagulants as the virus can cause blood clotting. He also mentions a three-drug combination that has had success in Hong Kong. But he doesn't think that remdesivir will do any good.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VWaHn99IFE4" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


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