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Coronavirus Deaths, Death Rates, Testing, Other Stats
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Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 12905
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 05/08/20 9:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
Some more expert predictions from Australia: Far more Australians will kill themselves because of coronavirus lockdown than those who die of the virus, experts say

Another expert prediction from the institute of duhh.

These are the types of "problems" a country has when no one in that country is dying of the virus.
Our normal rate of suicide is ~ 58 people per week.
Our total deaths from COVID-19 in the past week is 4.
So yeah, a lot of things are killing more Australians than the virus. It's awful. We really should be intentionally letting the virus kill more people just so the other reasons look proportionally lower.

Or maybe we should use the type of rationale used by people who keep citing the age of COVID deaths. Most COVID deaths are old people who were probably maybe going to die anyway from something at some unspecified time in the nearishish future. Similarly, the type of person who would commit suicide due to the financial stresses of COVID would probably have killed themselves anyway for some reason at some time soon, so meh ... whatever. They will have died proudly for their country or something something, and probably not have even used up a hospital bed or medical resources in the process. Or does that sound just a tad bit too utterly heartless.


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

It's always so refreshing to get a foreign perspective on the typically fukked up "American" pretzel twists employed here.



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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/08/20 2:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656



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FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 1816



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PostPosted: 05/08/20 3:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Over 90,000 Health Workers Infected With COVID-19 Worldwide: Nurses Group

Quote:
At least 90,000 health-care workers worldwide are believed to have been infected with COVID-19, and possibly twice that, amid reports of continuing shortages of protective equipment, the International Council of Nurses (ICN) said on Wednesday.


This article is from Medscape, whose memorial "page" for healthcare workers around the world who died from COVID is now up to 25 pages.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930111?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=369619HT&impID=2374839&faf=1


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6248
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/08/20 11:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 58: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 26,957 (2.1%) from 1,256,972 to 1,283,929
- deaths increased by 1,518 (2.0%) from 75,662 to 77,180
- death rate decreased from 6.02% to 6.01%

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.





_____________________________________________________________

Is CV19 "unprecedented"? No.

When I was a child, the most feared disease in the U.S. was polio. It struck mostly infants and children. From 1916 to 1955, when the vaccine was developed, some unknown number in the tens of thousands died, became crippled or were put in an iron lung. The March of Dimes was started in 1938 to collect money to fight the disease. My mother, whose brother was crippled by polio as a boy, went door to door asking each house for one dime, as tens of thousands of mothers did. I helped her put the dimes into little circlet holes in the pages of a book, and when the book was filled with dimes it was sent in.

The Hong Kong flu of 1957-58 killed an estimated 116,000 Americans according to the CDC, and the Asian flu of 1968 killed about 100,000. Both of these epidemics killed primarily the old and ill, just like CV19, but unlike the current virus also killed a lot of children. Just two years ago, the seasonal flu killed an estimated 62,000-80,000 in the U.S., depending on what CDC estimate one looks at.

Yet, there were no quarantines of the healthy, no school closures, no social distancing, no lockdowns, no panic, no fear, and virtually no news about these flu epidemics. Certainly no politics.

What is unprecedented about CV19 is not it's fatality but the unhinged fear and governmental reaction to it, constantly politicized and pumped up by both mainstream and social media.

Here's an update of the CV19 vs. flu graph I've shown two or three times before:


_____________________________________________________________

Although the U.S. has suffered more deaths than any other country, it is a big country in area with the third largest population in the world, so the deaths per million are among the lowest of the Western democracies.


_____________________________________________________________

I've discussed the controversial overcounting of CV19 ("presumed") deaths in the U.S. Allegations about death counts are rocking other countries too.

In Italy,

Quote:
Vittorio Sgarbi, a member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, denounced what he claims are false coronavirus death statistics. Sgarbi feels that fake statistics are being propagated by the government and the media to terrorize the citizens of Italy and establish a dictatorship.


In Mexico,

Quote:
The Mexican government is not reporting hundreds, possibly thousands, of deaths from the coronavirus in Mexico City, dismissing anxious officials who have tallied more than three times as many fatalities in the capital than the government publicly acknowledges, according to officials and confidential data reviewed by The New York Times.

_____________________________________________________________

There is, however, no uncertainty or controversy over the prodigious and unprecedented economic devastation the dubious lockdowns have caused.

Jobless rate spikes to 14.7%, highest since Great Depression

Hospitals are losing billions. Industry leaders say the aftermath could be 'apocalyptic.'
_____________________________________________________________

Where have you gone, Michelangelo?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you . . . .

tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 7964



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PostPosted: 05/08/20 11:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:


The Hong Kong flu of 1957-58 killed an estimated 116,000 Americans according to the CDC, and the Asian flu of 1968 killed about 100,000. Both of these epidemics killed primarily the old and ill, just like CV19, but unlike the current virus also killed a lot of children. Just two years ago, the seasonal flu killed an estimated 62,000-80,000 in the U.S., depending on what CDC estimate one looks at.

Yet, there were no quarantines of the healthy, no school closures, no social distancing, no lockdowns, no panic, no fear, and virtually no news about these flu epidemics. Certainly no politics.


You are actually pointing out that you are making an apples to oranges comparison - results without mitigation versus results with mitigation. And as you were doing in early March when you started the thread (Editorial comment: Note that the worldwide deaths from CV are only ~20% of the >20,000 deaths from this season's flu in the U.S alone.) you are comparing the complete results of one versus the incomplete results of the other.


Genero36



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 11064



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PostPosted: 05/09/20 5:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/09/20 8:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656
1518 – 5/8 = 73,295 (4/8: 1924) May: 14,174



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FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 1816



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PostPosted: 05/09/20 9:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656
1518 – 5/8 = 73,295 (4/8: 1924) May: 14,174


One thing seems quite clear. Your hope that May would be less tragic was for naught, at least for the first week. Deaths are up 30% over the same period in April.
(With the usual caveat about reporting, garbage-in-garbage-out, etc.)


Luuuc



Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 20190



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PostPosted: 05/09/20 9:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't think the same period last month is a fair comparison, since it was still ramping up at the start of April. If May is going to be lower then it would need to be because the peak was behind you, and therefore you'd compare the start of May with the end of April, and hopefully decline so that the end of May is lower than the start of April. (like a mirror image around the peak)
Probably moot anyway, since "opening up" seems to be the plan, so if there even is a decline it seems unlikely to be a drastic one this month.



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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/09/20 11:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
I don't think the same period last month is a fair comparison, since it was still ramping up at the start of April. If May is going to be lower then it would need to be because the peak was behind you, and therefore you'd compare the start of May with the end of April, and hopefully decline so that the end of May is lower than the start of April. (like a mirror image around the peak)
Probably moot anyway, since "opening up" seems to be the plan, so if there even is a decline it seems unlikely to be a drastic one this month.



The first column was maintained so the reader could see the daily death toll and easily make the comparison you refer to. (to which you refer) Smile



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Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 12905
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 05/09/20 7:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".


....or the Spanish flu, or the Swine flu....yadda yadda.

What particular *Killer* bug/epidemic/etc. ever CRIPPLED THE MOST MODERN HEALTH SYSTEM in such short order?? And pretty graphics notwithstanding, we haven't even dealt with a half year of Covid 19, to the best of our knowledge. To me, the only relevant comparison is to the pandemic of 1918, with ~50 million dead.

No, the Earth is NOT actually flat. Razz



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GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6248
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/09/20 11:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 59: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 25,612 (2.0%) from 1,283,929 to 1,309,541
- deaths increased by 1,615 (2.1%) from 77,180 to 78,795
- death rate increased from 6.01% to 6.02%

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




____________________________________________________________

The graph below is from the White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA). It shows how the CEA is forecasting daily death projections as it gives economic advice to the president. They overlay actual daily deaths onto the three most recent IHME model projections, and then do a cubic fit regression analysis, the red line. The red line seems so optimistic as to when daily deaths get close to zero that it seems unrealistic to layman me.


_____________________________________________________________

Here is the CEA's latest projection of jobs lost in millions for various job categories.


____________________________________________________________

I've reported before how the CDC began allowing states to stuff "probable" or "presumed" CV19 deaths into their death statistics. A probable death is when the decedent never was tested for CV19 but dies with symptoms of the virus, such as fever, coughing or trouble breathing. Of course, many respiratory diseases have these symptoms, so the probable death methodology has brought shouts of "death padding" from many quarters, especially now (under the CARES Act) that Medicare is giving a 20% bonus reimbursement to hospitals for CV19 patients.

I don't know how many states do this, but I know it's being done retroactively in the hardest hit states in the northeast. The chart below shows how it affects the official daily death counts in Connecticut.


_____________________________________________________________

Some good news:

-- Yesterday, Hawaii reported no new CV10 cases for the first time since March 13. There is a cumulative total of 17 deaths in the state, which works out to be 12 deaths per million population, tied with Wyoming for lowest deaths per million in the U.S.

-- Mt. Sinai Hospital in New York reports that blood thinners may improve survival in CV19 patients. Their study found that "62.7 percent of intubated patients who were not treated with anticoagulants died, compared to 29.1 percent for intubated patients treated with anticoagulants."
_____________________________________________________________

Every which way but loose . . . .


_____________________________________________________________
cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/10/20 8:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656
1518 – 5/8 = 73,295 (4/8: 1924) May: 14,174
1615 – 5/9 = 74,910 (4/9: 1867) May: 15,789



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GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6248
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/10/20 9:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 60: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 19,684 (1.5%) from 1,309,541 to 1,329,225
- deaths increased by 730 (0.9%) from 78,795 to 79,525 (the first triple digit day since April 2)
- death rate decreased from 6.02% to 5.98%

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.





_____________________________________________________________

Governor Kemp of Georgia, who began lifting lockdowns 15 days ago, optimistically tweets:

Quote:
Today marks the lowest number of COVID-19 positive patients currently hospitalized statewide (1,203) since hospitals began reporting this data on April 8th.

Today also marks the lowest total of ventilators in use (897 with 1,945 available).

____________________________________________________________

More outcry against confused and inflated CV19 death statistics:

Dr. Birx vs. the CDC:

Quote:
According to a new bombshell report from the Washington Post, the White House Coronavirus Task Force response administrator is doubting the administration's numbers. . . .

"During a task force meeting Wednesday, a heated discussion broke out between Deborah Birx, the physician who oversees the administration's coronavirus response, and Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC's antiquated system for tracking virus data, which they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent, according to four people present for the discussion or later briefed on it. . . .

"There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust," Birx reportedly said, according to two of the people.


COVID doctors challenge CDC's rules on cause of death, concerned about inflated numbers

Quote:
Frontline COVID-19 doctors this week have gone public saying they feel pressured to show COVID-19 as cause-of-death on certificates of patients suspected of having the virus when they also have had underlying medical conditions.

. . . . Such reporting could result in inaccurately inflating the number of virus-related deaths and hurt those drafting public health policy for future pandemics or epidemics.

_____________________________________________________________
Update from the Cure Worse than the Disease Department:

Quote:
Based on a broad array of scientific data, Just Facts has computed that the anxiety created by reactions to Covid-19—such as stay-at-home orders, business shutdowns, media exaggerations, and legitimate concerns about the virus—will destroy at least seven times more years of human life than can possibly be saved by lockdowns to control the spread of the disease. This figure is a bare minimum, and the actual one is likely more than 90 times greater.

_____________________________________________________________

The IHME model has been revised for the 11th time, increasing its projected U.S. median death toll by August 4 from 134,000 to 137,000, with a confidence range from 103,000 to 223,000.
_____________________________________________________________

Love you, mom, and wish I could still see you even this way . . . .

cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/11/20 7:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656
1518 – 5/8 = 73,295 (4/8: 1924) May: 14,174
1615 – 5/9 = 74,910 (4/9: 1867) May: 15,789
730 – 5/10 = 75,640 (4/10: 2074) May: 16,519



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 7964



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PostPosted: 05/11/20 8:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Encouraging that the deaths and new cases for May 10th are the lowest daily totals since late March.


Luuuc



Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 20190



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PostPosted: 05/11/20 9:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Encouraging that the deaths and new cases for May 10th are the lowest daily totals since late March.

Definitely encouraging. Although note that the US deaths seem to follow a regular weekly pattern with this being the lowest day. But yeah, the first 3-digit number in ages is obviously still a good thing.




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Yes there's gas in the car.
FrozenLVFan



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Posts: 1816



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PostPosted: 05/11/20 1:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Cases don't get reported promptly on the weekends, especially Sunday. The number will go back up tomorrow.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6248
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/11/20 10:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 61: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 18,656 (1.4%) from 1,329,225 to 1,347,881
- deaths increased by 1,157 (1.5%) from 79,525 to 80,682
- death rate increased from 5.98% to 6.00%

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.





_____________________________________________________________

The Oxford University COVID site has lots of interesting graphs.

Here are worldwide daily deaths since January compared to the U.S. and Sweden. You can plug any countries into their graphs. Note how the U.S. is following the worldwide curve pattern while Sweden, which kept their K-12 in school and had no severe lockdowns, has never really had a peak at all.


_____________________________________________________________

Here's an Oxford graph that really surprised me. The virus is overwhelmingly targeting the wealthy for death.



I don't know the explanation for this disparity, except for the easy observation that most deaths are happening in the relatively wealthy Western nations, such as the U.S., U.K., Italy, France and Spain, and the fewest deaths are happening in poor countries. But why is that?

This Brookings Institution article analyzes the disparity:

Quote:
Here’s a striking statistic: Low-income and lower-middle income countries (LICs and LMICs) account for almost half of the global population but they make up only 2 percent of the global death toll attributed to COVID-19. We think this difference is unreal.


I don't follow all the speculative academic Jabberwocky in the article, except to the extent it is saying that death statistics are a SNAFU and FUBAR all over the world. That, I agree with.
_____________________________________________________________

Another virologist/epidemiologist bashes the disgraced Neil "Mad Cow" Ferguson and his secret code Imperial College model that locked down the world.

Quote:
There is wide support for a science-driven response to COVID-19, but very little scrutiny of the science behind many of the predictions that informed early public health measures.


What does he think of Ferguson's 13-year old secret modeling program?

Quote:
It’s somewhere between negligence and unintentional but grave scientific misconduct.

_____________________________________________________________

Translated by Google Chrome, this Hamburg, Germany, newspaper article reports that, according to the head of Hamburg forensic medicine, Professor Klaus Püschel:

Quote:
So far, not a single person with no previous illness has died of the virus in Hamburg. "All of those we have examined so far have had cancer, a chronic lung disease, were heavy smokers or heavily obese, suffered from diabetes or had a cardiovascular disease."


He goes on to say,

Quote:
. . . the astronomical economic damage now arising is not commensurate with the danger posed by the virus.

____________________________________________________________

I say, if young men in my father's generation could wade through hundreds of meters of chest high frigid water at Normandy and hit the exploding black sands of Iwo Jima, why can’t old men in my generation take risk in self quarantine for a few months while all the low risk folks go back to the life our fathers fought and died for.

And also . . . .




tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 7964



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PostPosted: 05/12/20 1:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:


Here are worldwide daily deaths since January compared to the U.S. and Sweden. You can plug any countries into their graphs. Note how the U.S. is following the worldwide curve pattern while Sweden, which kept their K-12 in school and had no severe lockdowns, has never really had a peak at all.


Sweden has a population around 1/33rd of the USA so it is difficult to compare their data on the same scale graph. Their Worldometer page shows that they hit a peak daily deaths on the same day or close to the day of the USA and World (April 22nd-ish). Like the seven USA states that did not impose shelter-in-place edicts, Sweden saw their citizens voluntarily restrict their behavior, although that had to have been less than places where restaurants and bars and the like were closed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/12/20 12:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656
1518 – 5/8 = 73,295 (4/8: 1924) May: 14,174
1615 – 5/9 = 74,910 (4/9: 1867) May: 15,789
730 – 5/10 = 75,640 (4/10: 2074) May: 16,519
1157 – 5/11=76,797 (4/11: 1846) May: 17,676



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GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6248
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/12/20 10:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 62: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 21,495 (1.6%) from 1,347,881 to 1,369,376
- deaths increased by 1,674 (2.1%) from 80,682 to 82,356
- death rate increased from 6.00% to 6.01%

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.




_____________________________________________________________

This graph is a 7 day rolling average of daily deaths. Brazil and Mexico are on the rise.



_____________________________________________________________

Although I have criticized his wildly erroneous epidemiological models, I agree with the views of Minnesota's Dr. Michael Osterholm when he says:

Quote:
"This damn virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can," Osterholm said Monday . . . . "It surely won’t slow down until it hits 60 to 70%" of the population, the number that would create herd immunity and halt the spread of the virus.
. . . .

"We all have to confront the fact there’s not a magic bullet, short of a vaccine, that’s going to make this go away," he said. "We’re going to be living with it. And we’re not having that discussion at all."


It's way past time for some honest, mature and serious discussion about this virus. It will circulate the world perhaps forever. It will NEVER go completely away. Even with a vaccine. We must accept that inevitable fact and learn to live with its fatalities and go on with life, just as we have always lived with thousands of other fatal agents from nature and man since the beginning of time.
____________________________________________________________

The virus targets primarily the subset of the old who have serious underlying medical conditions. Those vulnerable people are concentrated in nursing homes and similar facilities. Now we have national data about nursing home deaths.

This article analyzes data from 39 states and estimates that 40% of U.S. CV19 deaths have been in nursing homes. Excluding New York, it would be 51%. This map shows each state's percentage.



The U.S. experience is consistent with many other countries.

Quote:
The U.S. is not an outlier in terms of its nursing home-related COVID-19 fatalities. A study by researchers at the International Long Term Care Policy Network of fatalities in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, and Sweden found that 49.4 percent of reported COVID-19 fatalities took place in nursing homes.


Nursing homes should be the aggressive focus of mitigation, lockdowns and other protections. Not schools and businesses. We must focus on the high risk targets.
_____________________________________________________________


And those targets may include some of the remaining survivors of Normandy and Iwo Jima . . . .


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12847
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 05/13/20 7:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

1216 – 4/01
867 – 4/02
1169 – 4/03
1336 – 4/04
1155 – 4/05
1280 – 4/06
1970 – 4/07
1924 – 4/08
1867 – 4/09
2074 – 4/10
1846 – 4/11
1475 – 4/12
1529 – 4/13
2425 – 4/14
4811 – 4/15
2424 – 4/16
3786 – 4/17
1849 – 4/18
1774 – 4/19
1631 – 4/20
2734 – 4/21
1646 – 4/22
3286 – 4/23
1063 – 4/24
2738 – 4/25
1128 – 4/26
1362 – 4/27 = 52,365
2110 - 4/28 = 54,470
2611 – 4/29 = 57,081
2040 – 4/30 = 59, 121

APRIL 2020
30 days
59,121 U.S. Deaths.

MAGAmorons said: "regular flu", "automobile deaths", "cancer", "heart disease".

Let's hope May is less tragic.

1937 – 5/1 = 61,058 (4/1: 1216) May: 1937
1426 – 5/2 = 62,484 (4/2: x867) May: 3363
1313 – 5/3 = 63,797 (4/3: 1169) May: 4676
1240 – 5/4 = 65,037 (4/4: 1336) May: 5916
2148 – 5/5 = 67,185 (4/5: 1155) May: 8064
2361 – 5/6 = 69,546 (4/6: 1280) May: 10,425
2231 – 5/7 = 71,777 (4/7: 1970) May: 12,656
1518 – 5/8 = 73,295 (4/8: 1924) May: 14,174
1615 – 5/9 = 74,910 (4/9: 1867) May: 15,789
730 – 5/10 = 75,640 (4/10: 2074) May: 16,519
1157 – 5/11=76,797 (4/11: 1846) May: 17,676
1674 – 5/12=78,471 (4/12: 1475) May: 19,350



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FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 1816



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PostPosted: 05/13/20 10:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

It's way past time for some honest, mature and serious discussion about this virus. It will circulate the world perhaps forever. It will NEVER go completely away. Even with a vaccine. We must accept that inevitable fact and learn to live with its fatalities and go on with life , just as we have always lived with thousands of other fatal agents from nature and man since the beginning of time.


Are we all coming back as zombies? Or perhaps vampires? I'd like to learn to live and go on with life after I've become a fatality.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6248
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 05/13/20 10:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 63: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update

U.S. (data sourced from Johns Hopkins website at ~11:30 pm EDT):
- confirmed cases increased by 21,030 (1.5%) from 1,369,376 to 1,390,406
- deaths increased by 1,736 (2.1%) from 82,356 to 84,119
- death rate increased from 6.01% to 6.05%

U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:

? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
488 – 3/28 1.76%
303 – 3/29 1.75%
547 – 3/30 1.85%
860 – 3/31 2.06%
1216 – 4/01 2.37%
867 – 4/02 2.44%
1169 – 4/03 2.57%
1336 – 4/04 2.72%
1155 – 4/05 2.86%
1280 – 4/06 2.97%
1970 – 4/07 3.23%
1924 – 4/08 3.43%
1867 – 4/09 3.58%
2074 – 4/10 3.74%
1846 – 4/11 3.89%
1475 – 4/12 3.96%
1529 – 4/13 4.05%
2425 – 4/14 4.27%
4811 – 4/15 4.83%
2424 – 4/16 4.96%
3786 – 4/17 5.28%
1849 – 4/18 5.29%
1774 – 4/19 5.36%
1631 – 4/20 5.38%
2734 – 4/21 5.46%
1646 – 4/22 5.54%
3286 – 4/23 5.75%
1063 – 4/24 5.73%
2738 – 4/25 5.72%
1128 – 4/26 5.68%
1362 – 4/27 5.69%
2110 – 4/28 5.76%
2611 – 4/29 5.86%
2040 – 4/30 5.89%
1937 – 5/01 5.88%
1426 – 5/02 5.86%
1313 – 5/03 5.84%
1240 – 5/04 5.84%
2148 – 5/05 5.90%
2361 – 5/06 5.98%
2231 – 5/07 6.02%
1518 – 5/08 6.01%
1615 – 5/09 6.02%
730 – 5/10 5.98%
1157 – 5/11 6.00%
1674 – 5/12 6.01%
1736 – 5/13 6.06%

Below are today's U.S. daily new cases and deaths in graph format from the Worldometer site, which has a different "day" and reports different daily numbers than Johns Hopkins.





_____________________________________________________________

As a follow-up to yesterday's data showing that at least 40% of U.S. deaths nationwide occur in nursing homes, focus is now on governors who ordered nursing homes to accept CV-19 positive patients, thereby essentially sentencing many of the other residents to death. For example,

New Jersey: To free up hospital beds, officials need NJ nursing homes to take back COVID-19 patients

New York: Coronavirus patients admitted to Queens nursing home — with body bags

Pennsylvania: States ordered nursing homes to take COVID-19 residents. Thousands died. How it happened
____________________________________________________________

Experts (a la Fauci, CDC, et al.): Masks work. Don't work. Yes. No. Maybe.

New study: If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says: There’s compelling evidence that Japan, Hong Kong, and other East Asian locales are doing it right and we should really, truly mask up—fast.

Me: A la Pascal's Wager, wearing one has potential benefit and no significant harm.


_____________________________________________________________

For example . . . .

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