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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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 Posted: 03/26/20 5:22 pm ::: |
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| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
What is being said is the slowdown is due to shortage of PPE supplies - reserving the scarcity for those treating sick people. Why can't this GREAT country produce this freakingly easy to manufacture supplies??????. |
I heard someone say that 20 years ago we made most of what masks we use. But when China joined the WTO in 2001 and there was a big surge in manufacturing job export, most of the mask production left the country. 3M is said to still make them in the USA.
We also exported pharmaceuticals and vaccines. I heard an expert say that if we were to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture. Inside the Pentagon they are talking every day about the latest gathered spy intelligence. China is at the top of the list of countries we are concerned with. And at the same time they make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines.
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
Posts: 8407
Location: Northfield, MN
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| Posted: 03/26/20 6:03 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| That is not at all what that New Scientist link said. He did not "back away" from his study, which would imply that he felt that his original numbers were wrong. Those original numbers were what the UK/US would have expected without mitigation. Based upon that study drastic action was taken and the new UK numbers are a result of those mitigating behaviors. |
His original suggestion was that mitigation could cut the numbers in half; 250k dead instead of 500k. |
Because the belief was that even with mitigation they would still face hospital collapse in many areas. The newest models have them just under that line. If it goes above, the death rate skyrockets.
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Luuuc
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| Posted: 03/26/20 6:12 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
More big news just out about the Imperial College study (linked by JIT above), which predicted 2.2 million dead in the U.S. and 500,000 in the U.K.
An author of that study, Neil Ferguson, who himself has contracted CV19, backed massively away from his study in the face of actual data and now predicts only 20,000 U.K. deaths, at most, and says that ICU capacity will be sufficient. Per New Scientist |
Umm. No.
That is not at all what that New Scientist link said. He did not "back away" from his study, which would imply that he felt that his original numbers were wrong. Those original numbers were what the UK/US would have expected without mitigation. Based upon that study drastic action was taken and the new UK numbers are a result of those mitigating behaviors.
In other words, the Imperial models are saying the UK is successfully flattening the curve. Hopefully the same will be true for the US as we also take action. Minnesota's Governor has said that the models we are using show 2.4 million infections and 74k deaths in the state without mitigation. With stay in place we expect those numbers to be significantly lower. |
How long has the U.K. been seriously mitigating? A week? 10 days? Impossible that that could have mitigated from 500,000 deaths to 20,000 or much lower. |
I guess you'd have to first define "seriously", including deciding whether or not heightened general awareness and improved personal hygiene falls under that category, in order to answer the question. eg. It has been nearly a month since stores started being bought out of hand sanitiser.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8227
Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 03/26/20 11:08 pm ::: |
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Update 15: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update
U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 16,635 (24%) from 69,018 to 85,653 (now the most of any country)
- deaths increased by 249 from 1,041 to 1,290
- death rate stayed the same at 1.50%
U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:
? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
I began these death rate calculations in the OP, when the U.S. had only 38 deaths, for two reasons. First, no one at the time was doing so. Second, because I had a tentative hypothesis that the worldwide death rates then being touted by the WHO and various study models were grossly distorted by the data and hospital system overloads in China and Italy.
While the "death rates" I and anyone else calculate do not represent empirical reality, which we may never know, we can certainly use them relatively, especially now that the U.S., China and Italy all have a comparable number of confirmed cases. Indeed, the death rate in the U.S. is much lower than either of those countries.
Italy:
- 8,215/80,589 = 10.19%
China:
- 3,291/81,782 = 4.02%
As Dr. Birx emphasized today, there is no evidence as yet of a bed or ventilator being unavailable to any patient in the U.S., even in NYC with over 23,000 cases. The NYC death rate is:
- 365/23,112 = 1.58%, much lower thus far than Wuhan or Lombardy. |
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 3514
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| Posted: 03/27/20 9:18 am ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
As Dr. Birx emphasized today, there is no evidence as yet of a bed or ventilator being unavailable to any patient in the U.S., even in NYC with over 23,000 cases. The NYC death rate is:
- 365/23,112 = 1.58%, much lower thus far than Wuhan or Lombardy. |
Very disingenuous. Anyone with half a brain knows the worst is yet to come and we're unprepared. The ventilators may not matter if we have no one qualified to use them. In NY, nurses are wearing trash bags to work because they have no PPE, and doctors get one N95 mask per week and are told to cover them with new surgical tape daily to help keep them clean. (https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer).
https://www.businessinsider.com/kious-kelly-hospital-nurse-dies-trash-bags-2020-3
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 7372
Location: Durham, NC
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 03/27/20 3:11 pm ::: |
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Total NY State COVID-19 deaths:
3/14 -1st & 2nd
3/27*- 519
*-not sure if this is thru 3/26, or thru 8am-ish 3/27
so, 13 days, 519 deaths.
same rate as the "seasonal" influenza?**
**I understand the daily death rate is escalating and that this "2-week" number will be low, going forward.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15737
Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 03/27/20 3:54 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
What is being said is the slowdown is due to shortage of PPE supplies - reserving the scarcity for those treating sick people. Why can't this GREAT country produce this freakingly easy to manufacture supplies??????. |
I heard someone say that 20 years ago we made most of what masks we use. But when China joined the WTO in 2001 and there was a big surge in manufacturing job export, most of the mask production left the country. 3M is said to still make them in the USA.
We also exported pharmaceuticals and vaccines. I heard an expert say that if we were to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture. Inside the Pentagon they are talking every day about the latest gathered spy intelligence. China is at the top of the list of countries we are concerned with. And at the same time they make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines. |
IF one choses to take that at face value, it certainly sends up some serious red flags: Who exactly says "the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture"? I find that hard to believe. And exactly WHY is it that THEY "make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines"? How could that be obligatory? Or did America choose to go the cheapest route (....or some other Deal with The Devil) at some time back in recent history, and lose control of its own destiny in that very essential milieu....?
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 7372
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 03/27/20 4:34 pm ::: |
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| I'm negative y'all!
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 9620
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| Posted: 03/27/20 4:55 pm ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
I heard someone say that 20 years ago we made most of what masks we use. But when China joined the WTO in 2001 and there was a big surge in manufacturing job export, most of the mask production left the country. 3M is said to still make them in the USA.
We also exported pharmaceuticals and vaccines. I heard an expert say that if we were to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture. Inside the Pentagon they are talking every day about the latest gathered spy intelligence. China is at the top of the list of countries we are concerned with. And at the same time they make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines. |
IF one choses to take that at face value, it certainly sends up some serious red flags: Who exactly says "the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture"? I find that hard to believe. And exactly WHY is it that THEY "make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines"? How could that be obligatory? Or did America choose to go the cheapest route (....or some other Deal with The Devil) at some time back in recent history, and lose control of its own destiny in that very essential milieu....? |
He was making the statement based on the fact that we don’t currently have the ability to make the vaccine. We off-shored those labs. We stopped making the pharmaceuticals (I have seen that we make some but still depend on China for some ingredients) and vaccines for the same reason we stopped making toasters and mobile phones. Because China with their significantly lower labor rates can do it much cheaper. I saw a claim that China now makes 1/3 of the world’s production. Once they joined the World Trade Organization all their economic metrics and things like CO2 emissions skyrocketed as they began doing the developed world’s manufacturing. The fact that it becomes a big risk as far as being unable to control production in a national disaster and also if we were to get into a war or just a Cold War with China, doesn’t rise up to a level where it counteracts that companies will make more money. Or you could say, once one company does it they have an advantage the rest have to follow. Few people are going to buy made in America products for more money. It has to be government policy that stops it, and the government (other than Trump) has no problem with it. And Trump is concerned with the massive trade deficit in general. I haven’t heard him complain about China making key products.
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 3514
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| Posted: 03/27/20 6:06 pm ::: |
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| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| I'm negative y'all! |
YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WONDERFUL NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just a cold or flu? How are you feeling now?
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 03/27/20 6:26 pm ::: |
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| Great news RAF!!!
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 7372
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 03/27/20 9:14 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
I heard someone say that 20 years ago we made most of what masks we use. But when China joined the WTO in 2001 and there was a big surge in manufacturing job export, most of the mask production left the country. 3M is said to still make them in the USA.
We also exported pharmaceuticals and vaccines. I heard an expert say that if we were to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture. Inside the Pentagon they are talking every day about the latest gathered spy intelligence. China is at the top of the list of countries we are concerned with. And at the same time they make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines. |
IF one choses to take that at face value, it certainly sends up some serious red flags: Who exactly says "the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture"? I find that hard to believe. And exactly WHY is it that THEY "make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines"? How could that be obligatory? Or did America choose to go the cheapest route (....or some other Deal with The Devil) at some time back in recent history, and lose control of its own destiny in that very essential milieu....? |
He was making the statement based on the fact that we don’t currently have the ability to make the vaccine. We off-shored those labs. We stopped making the pharmaceuticals (I have seen that we make some but still depend on China for some ingredients) and vaccines for the same reason we stopped making toasters and mobile phones. Because China with their significantly lower labor rates can do it much cheaper. I saw a claim that China now makes 1/3 of the world’s production. Once they joined the World Trade Organization all their economic metrics and things like CO2 emissions skyrocketed as they began doing the developed world’s manufacturing. The fact that it becomes a big risk as far as being unable to control production in a national disaster and also if we were to get into a war or just a Cold War with China, doesn’t rise up to a level where it counteracts that companies will make more money. Or you could say, once one company does it they have an advantage the rest have to follow. Few people are going to buy made in America products for more money. It has to be government policy that stops it, and the government (other than Trump) has no problem with it. And Trump is concerned with the massive trade deficit in general. I haven’t heard him complain about China making key products. |
Obviously he has no problem. His products, Ivanka's products, Melania's products are all manufactured in China.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8227
Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 03/27/20 11:02 pm ::: |
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Update 16: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update
U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 18,810 (22%) from 85,653 to 104,463
- deaths increased by 412 from 1,290 to 1,702
- death rate increased from 1.50% to 1.63%
U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:
? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
Dr. Birx pointed out today that all the deaths we've seen so far are from infections sustained prior to implementation of the national mitigation guidelines. Mitigation should kick in next week.
On the other hand, Governor Cuomo has now been suggesting for three days that some of the mitigation may have been actually wrong-headed and instead causative of an infectious acceleration – in particular, young people at home from school living in constant contact with vulnerable parents, grandparents and other elderly or sick relatives.
Meanwhile, experts are still all over the map with predictions and models and opinions.
Dr. Fauci said we are in "uncharted waters" in terms of infectious disease control. Is anyone an expert? |
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 7372
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 03/28/20 1:34 am ::: |
Reply |
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| FrozenLVFan wrote: |
| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| I'm negative y'all! |
YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WONDERFUL NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just a cold or flu? How are you feeling now? |
Def wasn't flu (I had to test negative before they sent the COVID test off). I had zero respiratory symptoms. Last Thursday night, I had a sudden fever spike accompanied by vicious return of UTI symptoms. Started new antibiotics and UTI cleared up fast, but fever and horrible chills stayed 4 days. Also had deep exhaustion, weakness and utter lack of apetite plus nausea. No headache, no respiratory at all. If it was the UTI, it was a very rare body response. Otherwise no idea. I had already had the worst cold ever in early February. Took forever to get over that cough, but it was completely gone before this started.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 7372
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 03/28/20 1:37 am ::: |
Reply |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Update 16: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update
U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 18,810 (22%) from 85,653 to 104,463
- deaths increased by 412 from 1,290 to 1,702
- death rate increased from 1.50% to 1.63%
U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:
? – 3/11 2.89%
2 – 3/12 2.41%
7 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
169 – 3/23 1.26%
204 – 3/24 1.43%
251 – 3/25 1.50%
249 – 3/26 1.50%
412 – 3/27 1.63%
Dr. Birx pointed out today that all the deaths we've seen so far are from infections sustained prior to implementation of the national mitigation guidelines. Mitigation should kick in next week.
On the other hand, Governor Cuomo has now been suggesting for three days that some of the mitigation may have been actually wrong-headed and instead causative of an infectious acceleration – in particular, young people at home from school living in constant contact with vulnerable parents, grandparents and other elderly or sick relatives.
Meanwhile, experts are still all over the map with predictions and models and opinions.
Dr. Fauci said we are in "uncharted waters" in terms of infectious disease control. Is anyone an expert? |
He is the expert. He'll find every expert around the world to confer with.
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Follow your passion and your life will be true down to your core.
~rAf
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 7372
Location: Durham, NC
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 9620
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| Posted: 03/28/20 3:16 am ::: |
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| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
I heard someone say that 20 years ago we made most of what masks we use. But when China joined the WTO in 2001 and there was a big surge in manufacturing job export, most of the mask production left the country. 3M is said to still make them in the USA.
We also exported pharmaceuticals and vaccines. I heard an expert say that if we were to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture. Inside the Pentagon they are talking every day about the latest gathered spy intelligence. China is at the top of the list of countries we are concerned with. And at the same time they make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines. |
IF one choses to take that at face value, it certainly sends up some serious red flags: Who exactly says "the formula would have to be given to China for manufacture"? I find that hard to believe. And exactly WHY is it that THEY "make our pharmaceuticals and vaccines"? How could that be obligatory? Or did America choose to go the cheapest route (....or some other Deal with The Devil) at some time back in recent history, and lose control of its own destiny in that very essential milieu....? |
He was making the statement based on the fact that we don’t currently have the ability to make the vaccine. We off-shored those labs. We stopped making the pharmaceuticals (I have seen that we make some but still depend on China for some ingredients) and vaccines for the same reason we stopped making toasters and mobile phones. Because China with their significantly lower labor rates can do it much cheaper. I saw a claim that China now makes 1/3 of the world’s production. Once they joined the World Trade Organization all their economic metrics and things like CO2 emissions skyrocketed as they began doing the developed world’s manufacturing. The fact that it becomes a big risk as far as being unable to control production in a national disaster and also if we were to get into a war or just a Cold War with China, doesn’t rise up to a level where it counteracts that companies will make more money. Or you could say, once one company does it they have an advantage the rest have to follow. Few people are going to buy made in America products for more money. It has to be government policy that stops it, and the government (other than Trump) has no problem with it. And Trump is concerned with the massive trade deficit in general. I haven’t heard him complain about China making key products. |
Obviously he has no problem. His products, Ivanka's products, Melania's products are all manufactured in China. |
It isn't obvious to me since he has been putting tariffs on Chinese imports against the wishes of the Washington DC and Wall Street elite.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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| Posted: 03/28/20 9:28 am ::: |
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| A simple and scalable solution to an immediate problem. Love it!
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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| Posted: 03/28/20 11:08 am ::: |
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Not exactly a BOOYAH moment for me since I suggested UV light to kill germs on the masks, and they’re using vaporized hydrogen peroxide.
But now Trump is going to look like a stable genius because he wondered why the masks couldn’t be reused. I’m sure he wouldn’t have thought of something like hydrogen peroxide but rather just running through a washing machine.
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What a relief that must be.
