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Coronavirus Deaths, Death Rates, Testing, Other Stats
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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/12/20 9:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Okay I knew that but what I meant is that once you’re exposed to the virus, and have it in your system, no amount of further viral exposure would overload your system and make you ‘more’ sick. Right?

But then again, who knows what matters during the indefinite period of time your body is incubating/fighting the virus in your system?



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Luuuc



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PostPosted: 03/12/20 9:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Okay I knew that but what I meant is that once you’re exposed to the virus, and have it in your system, no amount of further viral exposure would overload your system and make you ‘more’ sick. Right?

But then again, who knows what matters during the indefinite period of time your body is incubating/fighting the virus in your system?

Time for a qualified person to answer that, because to me the opposite would be the case. Viruses get into your cells, replicate themselves, and then spread to more cells. So to me, if that's happening and then at the same time you're also introducing new viruses to other cells and setting off the same process elsewhere, of course that is going to be worse because the immune system has limited capacity.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/12/20 9:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, that seems to make sense.



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/12/20 10:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 1: Changes in Statistics in the 24 Hours since the OP

Worldwide:
- confirmed cases increased by 2,207 from 126,136 to 128,343
- deaths increased by 90 from 4,630 to 4,720
- death rate remains same at 3.67%

China:
- no change in any of the numbers

U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 355 from 1,312 to 1,663 (the biggest increase other than Iran)
- deaths increased by 2 from 38 to 40 (one more in Washington, and Georgia's first)
- death rate decreased from 2.89% to 2.41%

Norway:
- confirmed cases increased by 73 from 629 to 702
- deaths remained same at 0
- death rate remained same at 0.00%
- apparently spooked by this statistical crisis, Norway closed its entire country to travel today except from other Nordic countries and closed all schools from kindergarten through college
- (I wonder if anyone will accuse Norway's prime minister of racism and xenophobia)
___________________

Here are details about the 40 U.S. deaths I've learned so far from researching local newspapers.

1 in New Jersey: 69 year old man with underlying health conditions

1 in South Dakota: man in his 60's with underlying health conditions

1 in Georgia: 67 year old man with underlying health conditions

2 in Florida:
- 71 year old man with "severe" underlying health conditions
- 77 year old woman who had recently traveled abroad

4 in California:
- 71 year old man with underlying health conditions who contracted symptoms on a cruise ship
- woman in her 60's with "chronic health conditions"
- woman in her 90's with underlying health conditions living in a nursing home
- woman over 60 with underlying health conditions who had traveled extensively including a layover in South Korea

31 in Washington:
- 22 from same nursing home near Seattle (Life Care Center of Kirkland)
- 2 patients in 80's in other nursing homes near Seattle
- looking for more data

Therefore, as of now in the U.S. outside the state of Washington, the number of actual deaths is ZERO for people under 60, and hence the actual death rate for people under 60 is also ZERO. It's certainly close to zero, if not at zero, for people under 60 or not in nursing homes in the state of Washington, but I can't yet verify all the ages there.

Another way for people in the U.S. to look at their risk of CV death is to compare the 40 deaths to the U.S. population of 330,000,000. Doing that, there is a 1 out of 8,250,000 chance of dying of CV in the U.S. Outside the state of Washington's population of ~8,000,000, the chances of dying of CV in the other 49 states is 9 out of 322,000,000 or 1 out of 35,777,777.

Corrections to or comments on the calculations are welcome.


Last edited by GlennMacGrady on 03/13/20 10:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/12/20 11:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This is the breakdown by age that they were able to compile from China. As I noted before, the variance of risk based upon age is huge.


Very few young people will die from this unless they have underlying medical conditions. However it is extremely dangerous for people 70+.

So in these early stages of the disease it matters a great deal who is being infected as far as what the overall numbers are going to say.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 1:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Here is a puzzling ratio. Santa Clara County, California announced 18 new cases, bringing the total to 66 (it was 4 on 2/29). They also announced that 31 people are hospitalized. 31/66 = 47%??


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 1:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Here is a puzzling ratio. Santa Clara County, California announced 18 new cases, bringing the total to 66 (it was 4 on 2/29). They also announced that 31 people are hospitalized. 31/66 = 47%??


China reported 15-20% of COVID patients were hospitalized and Italy reports 10% of positive patients need ICU care. However, those figures were reported after the hospitals in those countries had been overwhelmed and they had started triaging patients, such that those whose age and comorbidites made their survival unlikely weren't being admitted. The facilities in Santa Clara probably aren't at that point yet so they're admitting everyone who needs hospitalization. Once we start triaging patients because we have no more staffed hospital beds, the percentage of admissions to total COVID patients will fall. Just a guess on my part.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 9:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This site shows closed cases...recoveries vs deaths. Death rate is 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I've read statements online without any attribution that China stopped reporting its numbers last week. Anyone know if that is true? It would explain why their number of cases is seeming to plateau on various website charts.


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 5:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
This site shows closed cases...recoveries vs deaths. Death rate is 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I've read statements online without any attribution that China stopped reporting its numbers last week. Anyone know if that is true? It would explain why their number of cases is seeming to plateau on various website charts.


I wouldn't trust that site as against the Johns Hopkins site I'm using. Here are the stated sources for that site:

Quote:
Sources

Data compiled and analyzed by Worldometer and provided by:

National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
Health Commission of Hubei Province, China


Yes, data from China has been flat for a while. One can reasonably assume it's because China isn't reporting rather than that the disease has ended there.
pilight



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 6:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Yes, data from China has been flat for a while. One can reasonably assume it's because China isn't reporting rather than that the disease has ended there.



It's possible that Recombinant Interferon Alpha 2B is more effective than expected



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Luuuc



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 6:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Chinese numbers have been increasing daily, albeit very slowly for the last 6 days. But someone there is still reporting something (They've been untrustworthy for over a month IMO anyway).
If the trend there is remotely accurate then the lockdown has been incredibly effective.



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/13/20 11:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update 2: Changes in the Statistics in the 24 Hours since Previous Update

I've changed my mind about the reliability of the Worldometer site linked by Frozen. Having spent an hour reading it, it appears to be well-sourced on most pages and reasonably close to the Johns Hopkins data. I'll use some information from it from time to time but still use Hopkins as my primary source for calculation data.

Worldwide:
- confirmed cases increased by 17,026 from 128,343 to 145,369
- deaths increased by 709 from 4,720 to 5,429
- death rate increased from 3.67% to 3.73%

China:
- confirmed cases increased by 39 from 80,932 to 80,971
- deaths increased by 21 from 3,172 to 3,193
- death rate increased from 3.91% to 3.94%

U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 511 from 1,663 to 2,174
- deaths increased by 7 from 40 to 47 (6 more in Washington, and Kansas's first)
- death rate decreased from 2.41% to 2.16%

Italy:
- 1,226/17,660 = 6.94%
- compared to 827/12,462 = 6.63%, 48 hours ago in the OP
- 250 new deaths in Italy the past day. The highest number of deaths per day in the world ever (including China at its peak) has been reported in Italy in each of the last four days.

Here are the details on the seven new deaths in the U.S.:

1 (the first) in Kansas: man in 70's with underlying health conditions including heart disease, bed-ridden in a long-term care facility; CV diagnosed after autopsy

6 in Washington: The state now accounts for 37 of the U.S. deaths, and 25 of them are from the Life Care Center of Kirkland. Speaking of all 37, U.S. News reported: "Most of the people who died were in their 70s through 90s. One man in his 40s and two others in their 50s and two in their 60s died from COVID-19."

So, as to the 47 U.S. deaths, my research reveals that 44 were over 60 and almost all are reported to have had underlying medical conditions, and/or were in a nursing home, and/or had recently traveled abroad, and/or were on a cruise ship. Two were in their 50's and one in the 40's with no detail as to their other medical conditions.
tfan



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 2:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
confirmed cases increased by 511 from 1,663 to 2,174


I think we are at least tracking Italy, maybe more. We’re a larger country so the numbers will be higher before we overwhelm our hospitals and are forced to lockdown.

Luuuc wrote:
Yeah, dosage matters. A small enough dosage of virus particles and due to probabilities, it might not even result in an illness. A high enough dosage and the immune system is immediately overwhelmed and doesn't have time to react and fight it off.
(Disclaimer - That's my viruses-for-dumb-people understanding of it. Not to be taken as medical advice!)


An Australian politician said something like that with regard to people who had taken selfies with Tom Hanks - that their exposure hadn’t been long enough to catch it. I haven’t heard that elsewhere and hope it is true as it is hard to go to the supermarket or other store and not be exposed to somebody.

Edit: In reading a Washington Post article: “ Coronavirus can stay infectious for days on surfaces. But it’s still okay to check your mail.” I found some people talking about the “dosage matters”:

The more exposed you get to more virus, the higher the likelihood it is that you get infected,” Munster said.
That was echoed by Gary Whittaker, an infectious disease expert at Cornell University, who said that typically it takes “an army of viruses going in” to break through the natural defenses of a human being, which include mucus that lines airways.
“We’re talking about thousands or tens of thousands of particles to infect an animal or a person,” Whittaker said.


The article also says that it is more likely to get it from particles in the air from an infected person than touching surfaces and then your nose and mouth. But I have read people saying the opposite.


Luuuc



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 5:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I was speaking with a doctor about it today with this thread in mind, and they confirmed it too, and mentioned that it also varies by the type of virus.
eg. apparently Hepatitis A is renowned for needing only a tiny dose to infect a person, which is why if someone gets infected from some food, they will generally try to trace it back to recall & destroy the entire batch / truck load that it was sourced from.
Not sure where SARS-CoV-2 falls on the scale, but dosage matters.
So basically whatever correct measures you take might still limit how sick you get even if they don't completely prevent you from getting infected.



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 10:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Quote:
confirmed cases increased by 511 from 1,663 to 2,174


I think we are at least tracking Italy, maybe more. We’re a larger country so the numbers will be higher before we overwhelm our hospitals and are forced to lockdown.


You're becoming quite the pessimist, tfan. I've haven't seen anything to suggest that the U.S. hospitalization rate is significant for confirmed cases. Here's a current table from the Worldometer site, which doesn't speak to hospitalizations but does to U.S. mild vs. serious/critical active cases, which are statistically zero percent.

Quote:
Active Cases: 2,241

Currently Infected Patients:

-- 2,231 (100%) in Mild Condition

-- 10 (0%) Serious or Critical
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 11:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So is it possible that we aren’t getting as sick, for whatever myriad reasons that might be possible, as other countries? You know we have way way more than 2200 people in this country infected with coronavirus. The jammer is a numerical illiterate. But I have this old on the fly restaurant manager quick in my head math thing. 10 cases of seriously ill patients out of possibly millions already infected. 46 dead and 20 of them were under one roof in one Seattle nursing home. Something just doesn’t figure here for me.

???



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 11:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Is it possible that there is some kind of ... shelf life... to this bug... existing or maybe thriving in the atmosphere? Could it be weakening as a species? Losing its ability to make people sick?

Like I can hear people saying that’s not how these things typically work. But I would think it is how these things typically work or we would be inundated year after year with pandemic bugs. Things don’t survive or thrive to the point where they reach up and grab the human race by the throat very often.

Maybe I’m too stupid for this thread. Confused



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 11:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Let's look at worldwide deaths from various causes since January 1, 2020.

8,555,100 – abortions
2,613,300 – all communicable diseases
338,403 – HIV/AIDS
271,744 – road accidents
197,457 – malaria
169,525 – water related diseases
97,825 – flu
5,614 – coronavirus

One of these causes is orders of magnitude less fatal than the others. So, why is there media hysteria, public panic and aggressive governmental interventions against the least fatal and none of the others?
justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 12:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Based upon the best scientific models and estimates that we have at the moment, COVID-19 is not "orders of magnitude less fatal than the others".

It is more fatal than the flu and most other widespread communicable diseases, and more fatal than driving a car.

For instance, there is not a 10% chance that every person over the age of 70 who gets into a car will die in an auto accident.

And those that have high fatality rates have been major focuses for years. For instance, HIV/AIDS did have major panic, governmental intervention, and media coverage for years when it hit epidemic levels. Malaria has been the target of huge government programs and tons of money has been spent to prevent its spread.

Comparing deaths at this point is not how epidemiologists track the risks. It is extremely early and most places have not yet reached the point of community spread. But what happens once it does? What happens once the curve catches up and it is being transmitted throughout society like the flu? When the number of cases rival or transcend that of the flu? What happens to these numbers them? Based upon what epidemiologists believe is the most likely scenario, it is more contagious than the flu, so the likelihood of it not spreading like wildfire is rather low.

To say this shouldn't be taken with extreme seriousness based upon the data we now have, even with so much still unknown and with all the uncertainty about what the exact numbers are, is incredibly flawed and I have heard no actual expert in the field suggest such a thing.

It would be like being in the first few months of the AIDS crisis and saying, "No need to be concerned or treat this as a huge deal because so many more people have died from auto accidents in the last 3 months. Look at how few deaths have come from this AIDS thing."



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 1:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well I’m not taking it one bit more or less serious based on anything. I’m simply saying there are likely already millions infected with it here in this country and essentially nobody is dying of it here. So IF millions are infected and statistically zero percent of those millions are even sick let alone dying what might that mean?

You know, as long as we’re all just sitting around waiting to die.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 1:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
I’m simply saying there are likely already millions infected with it here in this country and essentially nobody is dying of it here.

But that's just the thing. There are a bunch of smart people who have a little bit of knowledge on this subject (or a whole lot of knowledge on a subject tangentially related to this--like statistics) who are making a lot of assumptions as if there is a lot of certainty at this point.

Yet when we look at what the actual experts are saying, they are expressing quite a bit of uncertainty and are making suggestions based on their best guess models. For instance, Ihave heard no actual expert suggest that millions have it and "essentially no one is dying from it here". Even if millions were currently infected, the experts would believe that most are still in the asymptomatic incubation period of the virus and would not show signs for some time. And ony of those that are starting to show symptoms would still be in the early stages before the dangerous and fatal complications started to appear.

There is a reason why the top public health experts and CDC/WHO epidemiologists don't just do simple division to determine the case fatalities rate of a virus. They need to adjust the data for all the uncertainties and to try to make it into a representative sample. The models they use are much more complex than back-of-the-napkin calculations. That's why they are constantly revising their numbers and adjusting their models/recommendations. On the public health side they use the best estimates they have at the moment to set/recommend policy for what they feel is the most likely occurrence.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 4:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Well I’m not taking it one bit more or less serious based on anything. I’m simply saying there are likely already millions infected with it here in this country and essentially nobody is dying of it here. So IF millions are infected and statistically zero percent of those millions are even sick let alone dying what might that mean?

You know, as long as we’re all just sitting around waiting to die.


The greatest concern isn't the 3-4% death rate. It's the 15% of seriously ill patients who are likely to need hospital level care to ultimately survive and what those numbers are going to do to our healthcare system. (Best estimates based on the countries ahead of us.)

I think the other shoe is going to drop soon. India and Russia are currently reporting <100 cases each, which either means they have no tests or they're not reporting the results. When we get accurate numbers from them, we're going to have a better idea of the extent of the problem.


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So absolutely for certain there are “countries ahead of us.” How and why could there be countries in Europe and, ahem, Iran, ahead of California? That’s kind of the heart of my questioning here. And believe me, I’m not making a judgement that’s running counter to science. I’m just asking questions.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 4:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Why is the United States behind any other country on the timeline?



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/14/20 4:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Why is the United States behind any other country on the timeline?


Timing of testing. And extent of international travel. It seems likely we had infected people from China hitting our airports sooner than Burkina Faso's airports. ETA: Hmm. That second part didn't quite answer your question, did it? I'll hedge with immigration and social patterns. One of the contributing factors in Iran was an extremely large religious service in Qom which is a tourist destination apparently. Open borders in Italy. Who knows? Giving up now.


To the statistics being developed on this board...
Contemplate this. Italy has 21,157 cases. 1,966 recovered. 1,441 dead. Remainder still active cases. This happened in a country whose first world hospitals were overwhelmed by the number of seriously ill patients.




Last edited by FrozenLVFan on 03/14/20 5:21 pm; edited 2 times in total
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