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OutdoorsKid



Joined: 14 Jul 2020
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PostPosted: 07/21/20 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

greatgator wrote:
Marisa Davis Jones decommits from Duke

https://twitter.com/MadJ_11_/status/1285263225064308737


Per ESPN, Marisa Davis-Jones is a top 100 player: http://www.espn.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/235807

Before committing to Duke, she had several offers including one from Notre Dame: https://wbbblog.com/marisa-davis/


OutdoorsKid



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PostPosted: 07/21/20 6:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Brooklyn Rewers is a 6'4" post from Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. Has a sister who plays at Michigan State, and Brooklyn talked to Michigan State as well as "several West Coast Division I" schools: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/may/04/size-and-skill-lake-city-post-brooklyn-rewers-comm/

If this source is correct (https://wbbblog.com/duke-womens-basketball-recruiting/), then Duke has 11 scholarship players for 2020-21, 10 for 2021-22, and then with today's announcements, 5 in 2022-23. That 2022-23 team will be mostly very inexperienced unless she backfills with transfers. That would be contract year #3 for KL.

I agree that Coach P had a fine record at Duke, and that it would not be all that unusual for players to de-commit with a coaching change.

Playing for a very (read no women's college coaching experience) inexperienced coach whose reputation really was made as a player and a broadcaster would not be appealing to me and I would not encourage my child to do that. Good students do not automatically and immediately become good teachers.

As for walking away from a Duke education, there are many other outstanding universities in this country. If they are smart enough to get into Duke, then they are smart enough to get into Vandy, Northwestern, Stanford, Notre Dame, UCLA, the Ivies, etc.


ripleydc



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PostPosted: 07/21/20 7:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
I find it more likely that all three of these de-committed Duke recruits were interested in coming to Duke significantly because they had built up a positive recruiting relationship with P and/or her staff, but they have little personal relationship interest in, or perhaps even knowledge about, Lawson and her unknown staff.

I don't doubt the three had a very good relationship with JPM. Duke is a program with a high-profile history. To be recruited by a school with such an academic and athletic reputation had to be flattering and downright awesome for these young ladies.

That being said, I think it's possible a little reality set in, when they realized the Blue Devil program under Kara was unlikely to be anything like it had been under P. The new incoming coach was going to make some waves, and top 100 or above players were not necessarily part of the plan. If they really want to play a significant role in some program or if they truly liked P so much, their decision to reopen recruitment makes good sense.


Howee



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PostPosted: 07/21/20 8:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OutdoorsKid wrote:
greatgator wrote:
Lauren Walker decommits from Duke

https://twitter.com/Laurenw_924/status/1285269671927783427


https://hoopdreamsathletics.com/athlete/lauren-walker/ 6'2" wing, very smart.


Certainly looks reasonably talented there....why isn't this kid ranked in the top 100? Shocked



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thefutureisbright



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 7:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ESPN Rankings are skewed when it gets to 100 ... #99 ranked kid is a 91 and every kid graded a 90 is ranked #100


FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 07/22/20 10:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Today's article does say that Kara's been talking with recruits as well as her new staff, without any specifics. So apparently the decommits have at least heard what she's had to say and some decisions have been made on her assistants.
https://theundefeated.com/features/kara-lawson-all-in-as-duke-womens-basketball-coach/


OutdoorsKid



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 10:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

thefutureisbright wrote:
ESPN Rankings are skewed when it gets to 100 ... #99 ranked kid is a 91 and every kid graded a 90 is ranked #100


So are you saying that you don't believe the rating? What ratings do you believe?

I don't think it matters whether someone is ranked number 90 or 99. It's kind of splitting hairs at that point. The difference between 1 and 100 is more substantial. Regardless, they are based on past performance, and that is not a perfect predictor of future performance.

In any event, by winding out the clock so long with JPM, Duke athletics created a serious recruiting problem for whomever the coach would be for 2020-21. If that coach (maybe named on an interim basis) had been an JPM assistant or associate coach with whom recruits had interacted, then maybe the 3 recruits that left would have stayed committed to Duke. (That's pure conjecture on my part.) But now they have a problem with a very small recruiting class compared to what was needed.

The number of top 100 players who are smart enough to get into Duke is a pretty small pool, assuming that WBB players are as smart as other college-bound students. According to this source, Duke's acceptance rate is 7.7%: https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2020/04/duke-university-class-2024-acceptance-rates-peer-regular-decision Let's round that up to 8% to make the math easy, and apply that to 100 players. So 8 out of the top 100 players can get into Duke without more relaxed admissions criteria, on average. But those 8 are going to be recruited heavily by other schools with good WBB programs and strong academics. And at this point, most of the 8 will be committed to other schools. And good luck getting even one of them to change course and come to a university where the coach has no experience coaching and has not been out recruiting.

So who do you recruit for incoming 2021 if you are KL? You have to look at players that are not top 100. Or you live with the possibility of having only 1 incoming freshman, and pray that you have very healthy seasons from 2021-22 until the class of 2025 graduates. Unusally small recruiting classes hurt you for 4 years, not just 1.


thefutureisbright



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 10:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OutdoorsKid wrote:
thefutureisbright wrote:
ESPN Rankings are skewed when it gets to 100 ... #99 ranked kid is a 91 and every kid graded a 90 is ranked #100


So are you saying that you don't believe the rating? What ratings do you believe?

I don't think it matters whether someone is ranked number 90 or 99. It's kind of splitting hairs at that point. The difference between 1 and 100 is more substantial. Regardless, they are based on past performance, and that is not a perfect predictor of future performance.

In any event, by winding out the clock so long with JPM, Duke athletics created a serious recruiting problem for whomever the coach would be for 2020-21. If that coach (maybe named on an interim basis) had been an JPM assistant or associate coach with whom recruits had interacted, then maybe the 3 recruits that left would have stayed committed to Duke. (That's pure conjecture on my part.) But now they have a problem with a very small recruiting class compared to what was needed.

The number of top 100 players who are smart enough to get into Duke is a pretty small pool, assuming that WBB players are as smart as other college-bound students. According to this source, Duke's acceptance rate is 7.7%: https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2020/04/duke-university-class-2024-acceptance-rates-peer-regular-decision Let's round that up to 8% to make the math easy, and apply that to 100 players. So 8 out of the top 100 players can get into Duke without more relaxed admissions criteria, on average. But those 8 are going to be recruited heavily by other schools with good WBB programs and strong academics. And at this point, most of the 8 will be committed to other schools. And good luck getting even one of them to change course and come to a university where the coach has no experience coaching and has not been out recruiting.

So who do you recruit for incoming 2021 if you are KL? You have to look at players that are not top 100. Or you live with the possibility of having only 1 incoming freshman, and pray that you have very healthy seasons from 2021-22 until the class of 2025 graduates. Unusally small recruiting classes hurt you for 4 years, not just 1.


No, just she could be 100 or 125 or 150, who knows, they haven't ranked above 100. 99 is a 4 star, 100+ are 3 stars. If you look at Top 100 rankings, Keyarah Berry is listed at 100. She could even be 101. I was just stating what was there.


purduefanatic



Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: 07/22/20 11:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In regards to rankings, Dan Olsen that does ESPN Hoopgurlz is tremendous and he is easily the hardest working evaluator there is. I have seen him in gyms all across the country and his July itinerary (not this current July obviously, thank you covid) is always filled with ridiculous travel to see as many of the kids as he humanly can in person. He has a recruiting service that has literally hundreds of subscribers at all levels.

The next one I tend to trust after that is the Blue Star Report. That is handled by Chris Mennig and I know he runs a boatload of top events (EYBL, USJN, etc) while also going to some others to evaluate kids. He has a huge group of former college coaches that also go out and evaluate during the open periods as well as during the school year. I know they also have a few hundred subscribers at all levels, from P5 schools down to JC's.

There are several others, but those are the 2 I look at the most when it comes to national recruiting. There are several "local" recruiting services that also do pretty well, but they only focus on a certain state or region of the country.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 07/22/20 11:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OutdoorsKid wrote:
I don't think it matters whether someone is ranked number 90 or 99. It's kind of splitting hairs at that point. The difference between 1 and 100 is more substantial. Regardless, they are based on past performance, and that is not a perfect predictor of future performance.


This is certainly true. I'd even go so far as to say there's typically a big talent drop-off after #12 or #17 or #8, depending upon the given class. And then, kids ranked #44 make huge strides under a great coach, and become stars.

I hope Kara might find a diamond or 2 in the rough, and make the most out of them, like Kelly did with Ruthy Hebard, or any number of other coach/player duos.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 11:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The scuttlebutt on the Duke forum is that the 4th commit, from Australia, has "decommitted" as well, and this all happened because Kara told them she was pulling their scholarship offers. Shocked
https://247sports.com/college/duke/board/101618/Contents/duke-recruiting-class-of-2021-118963209/?page=7


brunie1064



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 2:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ruthy Hebard was ranked #77 in her class by Prospects Nation. Not what I would call a diamond in the rough.


purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 2:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
The scuttlebutt on the Duke forum is that the 4th commit, from Australia, has "decommitted" as well, and this all happened because Kara told them she was pulling their scholarship offers. Shocked
https://247sports.com/college/duke/board/101618/Contents/duke-recruiting-class-of-2021-118963209/?page=7


Dang, I only read a little but some of those posters need to take a chill pill. Why should a new coach, tasked with building a program that obviously had fallen, be forced to keep verbal commitments to the previous staff that won't even be on the campus for another 13 or 14 months? It's not like they had plane ticket in hand and were set to arrive in a couple of weeks. We are talking lots of time and there are tons of schools still looking to fill the class of '21 after not having been able to be on the road for a few months now.

I don't think it would be "classy" for Kara to keep them. In fact, I think it's great of her to get this done ASAP in order for those kids to find a new school. She didn't lead them on and drag her heels. I have no idea what she said or how she phrased anything, but these kids now have plenty of time to figure things out.


CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 3:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OutdoorsKid wrote:
thefutureisbright wrote:
ESPN Rankings are skewed when it gets to 100 ... #99 ranked kid is a 91 and every kid graded a 90 is ranked #100


So are you saying that you don't believe the rating? What ratings do you believe?


Actually, Dan Olson, who did the ESPN/Hoopgurlz rankings, stated (via Twitter) there is a problem with the ESPN system such that there are numerous players who are being given the ranking of 100 for the 2021 class. He clarified that this was a technical glitch.

For those with a subscription to Dan Olson's own site (Collegiate Girls Basketball Report), on which the ESPN rankings are based, the multiple players listed as #100 in their ESPN bios are not so on his own site (he has his own individual rankings for them, outside the top 100).


OutdoorsKid



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 3:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Kara now has 6 open scholarships at a university that again, is highly selective, so in a group of 100 applicants, maybe 8 get in. It takes some real audacity to let go 4 commits and think that you will find 4 better players who can manage Duke academics in your first year as a college coach.

This is not Tennessee, where the aceeptance rate is about 78%, so 78 out of every 100 applicants get in.

If she pulled scholarships on students who were counting on the costs of a very expensive education being paid, that is not nothing, and it is not laudable. I don't care whether she made the promise herself; as a steward of the university's resources, including it's reputation, she just flunked her first test, if she pulled scholarships to four student athletes whose families were counting on them to help their children get a great education.

At the end of the 2017-18 WBB season, Duke was rated #12 in the Coaches Poll. That's a very good rating. Duke had some very good successes under JPM. She just never got them to a Final Four, like Coach G did. Still, you have to respect her record, and consider that you can't compile a record like hers without having some ability to spot and recruit good talent.


purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 3:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For the record, schools get exceptions from the admissions department. You can point at that acceptance rate all you want, but that isn't the end all, be all that you are making it out to be. A new coach taking over a program is well within his/her means of doing what they see fit to accomplish the goal of building the program, the job for which they were hired to do. I'm sure the people that hired her and employ her will give her leeway to get that job done. I'm also pretty sure she has a grasp on the roster, the scholarship availability, etc. She seems to me to be a very intelligent, organized person. I can't see her letting go of kids willy nilly without examining stuff and having a plan.

Anyway, I hope she is able to build them back into a national contender.

* Edit...I'm also not talking exceptions like she can get in a kid with a 2.2 GPA and a 980 SAT


Howee



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 3:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

brunie1064 wrote:
Ruthy Hebard was ranked #77 in her class by Prospects Nation. Not what I would call a diamond in the rough.


Ranked 77th, and drafted at #8 overall 4 years later looks VERY Diamond-esque to me. Laughing



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purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 3:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
brunie1064 wrote:
Ruthy Hebard was ranked #77 in her class by Prospects Nation. Not what I would call a diamond in the rough.


Ranked 77th, and drafted at #8 overall 4 years later looks VERY Diamond-esque to me. Laughing


Or the ranking publication was really off.


OutdoorsKid



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 3:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

purduefanatic wrote:
For the record, schools get exceptions from the admissions department. You can point at that acceptance rate all you want, but that isn't the end all, be all that you are making it out to be. A new coach taking over a program is well within his/her means of doing what they see fit to accomplish the goal of building the program, the job for which they were hired to do. I'm sure the people that hired her and employ her will give her leeway to get that job done. I'm also pretty sure she has a grasp on the roster, the scholarship availability, etc. She seems to me to be a very intelligent, organized person. I can't see her letting go of kids willy nilly without examining stuff and having a plan.

Anyway, I hope she is able to build them back into a national contender.

* Edit...I'm also not talking exceptions like she can get in a kid with a 2.2 GPA and a 980 SAT


Not every school gives exceptions. Do you work in admissions at Duke?


PUmatty



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 4:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Are these kids who have signed Letters of Intent? Were they planning on coming in the fall?


purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 4:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OutdoorsKid wrote:
purduefanatic wrote:
For the record, schools get exceptions from the admissions department. You can point at that acceptance rate all you want, but that isn't the end all, be all that you are making it out to be. A new coach taking over a program is well within his/her means of doing what they see fit to accomplish the goal of building the program, the job for which they were hired to do. I'm sure the people that hired her and employ her will give her leeway to get that job done. I'm also pretty sure she has a grasp on the roster, the scholarship availability, etc. She seems to me to be a very intelligent, organized person. I can't see her letting go of kids willy nilly without examining stuff and having a plan.

Anyway, I hope she is able to build them back into a national contender.

* Edit...I'm also not talking exceptions like she can get in a kid with a 2.2 GPA and a 980 SAT


Not every school gives exceptions. Do you work in admissions at Duke?


Been in the business for a couple of decades and actually know a few people in the Duke athletic department. And by "know", I mean talk to on a fairly regular basis. They can get a kid in provided they are close. Again, not the 2.2 GPA kid but as long as it is within reason, they can.


Howee



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 4:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

purduefanatic wrote:
Howee wrote:
brunie1064 wrote:
Ruthy Hebard was ranked #77 in her class by Prospects Nation. Not what I would call a diamond in the rough.


Ranked 77th, and drafted at #8 overall 4 years later looks VERY Diamond-esque to me. Laughing


Or the ranking publication was really off.


At least. I mean, espn ranked her at #40 and even at THAT, I'd still say very few kids who rank that lowly end up drafted in the first round upon graduation. All of which sheds some light on the Ranking-Results process: not that precise of a science, after all.



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ripleydc



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 4:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OutdoorsKid wrote:
The number of top 100 players who are smart enough to get into Duke is a pretty small pool, assuming that WBB players are as smart as other college-bound students. According to this source, Duke's acceptance rate is 7.7%: https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2020/04/duke-university-class-2024-acceptance-rates-peer-regular-decision Let's round that up to 8% to make the math easy, and apply that to 100 players. So 8 out of the top 100 players can get into Duke without more relaxed admissions criteria, on average.

I think your logic here is a bit flawed. The fact that Duke and other top-rated schools only admit single-digit percentages of their applicants does NOT mean that only 8% (for example) of applicants to Duke "are smart enough".

At these highly-selective universities there are way more "smart enough" students applying than there are open slots. The universities don't simply look at SAT scores or other numerical rankings and admit the ones in the top 8%. They look at the total person; they read the student essays; they try to get a pool of students that have qualities, talents and other non-quantitative strengths that the college deems valuable.

I would fully expect that a high percentage of the top 100 WBB recruits in the country would be smart enough to do well at Duke, particularly since athletes are generally provided a very good academic support network.

Being a top 100 athlete is a talent that separates an applicant from the pack and makes that individual desirable as a member of the incoming class. So it would be erroneous to assume only 8% of people Kara may be recruiting would gain admission and achieve success at Duke.




Last edited by ripleydc on 07/22/20 4:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 4:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
Are these kids who have signed Letters of Intent? Were they planning on coming in the fall?


No, they're class of 2021, so verbal commits only.


OutdoorsKid



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PostPosted: 07/22/20 4:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thank you. I understand how admissions work, including at highly selective universities where I have worked. I have even worked as an admissions recruiter. What is considered varies from school to school. My background also includes a lot of work as a statistician, and my example is a simplification to make a larger point, which is this: not all or even most of the eligible recruits can or should be admitted to Duke.

I also have had conversations with coaches who recruit at such places and understand how recruiting can be a challenge when you are at a more selective institution.

What I am not willing to conjecture is that most or even many WBB players are able to be admitted to Duke, even if a little fudge-factor is allowed (I personally think this is unethical, and a privilege that should be extended to all, not just to student athletes). Where is the actual data to suggest otherwise?

I am going to take my argument one step further: If you look at those in the class of 2025 who have committed and who are apparently top 100 players, 24 remain: http://www.espn.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/rankings/_/class/2021 and just 2 are top ten: Azzi Fudd and Kiki Iriafen. If this information is right, then Iriafen has offers from and narrowed her list to: Baylor, UConn and also aademic powerhouses of UCLA, Notre Dame, and Stanford. https://wbbblog.com/okikiola-kiki-iriafen/ Fudd will be recruited heavily, including by the top team in the ACC last year, Louisville, and also including Notre Dame, Maryland, and South Carolina, from what I could find. I am sure that others are recruiting her.

Even if some of the 76 who are committed decommit, the set of available players who can (not will but can) commit to Duke is pretty small. And the competition for the best of them is fierce. Most of the other coaches have experience. Some have won national championships. Many have coached teams that have been in the final four. Some have huge crowds at their games.

So back to one my original points: Duke administration screwed up. The hire was too late. They should have waited another year to do a coaching search with an interim in place, or pulled the plug in JPM in March and delt with the fallout.

Maybe a diamond in the rough is what one should hope for as Howee mentioned. Kelly Graves will be on the coaches that KL competes against for some players, and KG has flat proven that he can coach.


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