RebKell's Junkie Boards
Board Junkies Forums
 
Log in Register FAQ Memberlist Search RebKell's Junkie Boards Forum Index

Bracketology
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    RebKell's Junkie Boards Forum Index » NCAA Women's Basketball - General Discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
Posts: 4354



Back to top
PostPosted: 02/26/20 2:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quadrant 1 is ridiculous. How can a win against No 5 be equivalent to a win to No 45? It's not in the same universe. These broad groupings could be justified 50 years ago when data systems were reserved for science but there is no reason to not give each team a ranking based on some algorithm and grade wins and losses on those.

On another note won't it be strange that the winner of the B1G gets a 3 or 4 or 5 seed while the second place team gets a 1 seed? And if NW wins both the regular and post season titles it gets bizarre.




Last edited by linkster on 02/27/20 10:46 am; edited 1 time in total
SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 4022
Location: Minnesota


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/26/20 3:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Quadrant 1 is ridiculous. How can a win against No 5 equivilent to a win to No 45? It's not in the same universe. These broad groupings could be justified 50 years ago when data systems were reserved for science but there is no reason to not give each team a ranking based on some algorithm and grade wins and losses on those.


I thought for WBB they might split into something like
1-25, 26-50, 51-100, 101+ ?

Quote:
On another note won't it be strange that the winner of the B1G gets a 3 or 4 or 5 seed while the second place team gets a 1 seed? And if NW wins both the regular and post season titles it gets bizarre.



Northwestern and Maryland probably would tie for 1st place (Maryland has tiebreaker). The main difference in Maryland being a possible #1 seed and Northwestern a being a 2 or 3 right now is their confernece schedules: Northwestern and Maryland both played each other twice and Michigan twice but after that, Northwestern got cellar-dwellar Penn St and Illinois twice, along with Michigan St while Maryland got ranked Indiana, Iowa, along with Ohio St. But if Northwestern runs the table, and wins the Big Ten Tournament, I can see them overtaking Maryland (probably not as a 1-seed though).


Hoopsmom



Joined: 05 Apr 2017
Posts: 289



Back to top
PostPosted: 02/27/20 11:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A couple upsets today:
#12 Texas A&M list to unranked Alabama, and #12 Arizona State just lost to unranked Utah...


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 4022
Location: Minnesota


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/27/20 11:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hoopsmom wrote:
A couple upsets today:
#12 Texas A&M list to unranked Alabama, and #12 Arizona State just lost to unranked Utah...


Arizona State losing to Utah was Sunday.
#21 Missouri St lost to Illinois State though.


Hoopsmom



Joined: 05 Apr 2017
Posts: 289



Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 12:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Oops - I got home from work, and my husband had it on, so I thought it was live. My bad.


Matt5762



Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Posts: 607



Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 7:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hoopsmom wrote:

#12 Texas A&M list to unranked Alabama


2 straight top-20 road wins out of nowhere. Could Alabama be in now? Shocked

Looks like it's going to be hard for them to improve their profile further though, with Missouri, SECT R1 vs Georgia/Florida, and a potential SECT QF vs South Carolina...


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4272
Location: Carson City


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 2:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Big East could wind up with a 5 way tie for third if all the favorites win this weekend. And since everyone plays home-and-home against all other teams that would show how close the teams are. None of the teams have a Quadrant 1 win non-conference. Villanova was arguably weakest but they did have a win over Georgia (RPI 69). Seton Hall didn't have a top 100 win. Butler had wins over Ohio (61) and IUPUI (64), but lost to Ball St and Georgia. St John's best win was over Yale (67) and had a horrible loss to UNLV (I was at that game.) Creighton had the best non-conference performance, but their wins over West Virginia (60), South Dakota St (73), Northern Iowa (81), Nebraska (90) and Temple (94) do not look as good now because of middling conference seasons for those teams.

If that bottleneck occurs the first round of the Big East tournament could be the deciding factor.


PUmatty



Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 15126
Location: Chicago


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 3:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
The Big East could wind up with a 5 way tie for third if all the favorites win this weekend. And since everyone plays home-and-home against all other teams that would show how close the teams are. None of the teams have a Quadrant 1 win non-conference. Villanova was arguably weakest but they did have a win over Georgia (RPI 69). Seton Hall didn't have a top 100 win. Butler had wins over Ohio (61) and IUPUI (64), but lost to Ball St and Georgia. St John's best win was over Yale (67) and had a horrible loss to UNLV (I was at that game.) Creighton had the best non-conference performance, but their wins over West Virginia (60), South Dakota St (73), Northern Iowa (81), Nebraska (90) and Temple (94) do not look as good now because of middling conference seasons for those teams.

If that bottleneck occurs the first round of the Big East tournament could be the deciding factor.


Or maybe, without quality wins, none of those teams deserves to make it.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
Posts: 4354



Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 3:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
Hoopsmom wrote:

#12 Texas A&M list to unranked Alabama


2 straight top-20 road wins out of nowhere. Could Alabama be in now? Shocked

Looks like it's going to be hard for them to improve their profile further though, with Missouri, SECT R1 vs Georgia/Florida, and a potential SECT QF vs South Carolina...


Could TAMU end up playing it's first 2 NCAA games on the road?


BamaEd



Joined: 11 May 2014
Posts: 487
Location: United States


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 4:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
Hoopsmom wrote:

#12 Texas A&M list to unranked Alabama


2 straight top-20 road wins out of nowhere. Could Alabama be in now? Shocked

Looks like it's going to be hard for them to improve their profile further though, with Missouri, SECT R1 vs Georgia/Florida, and a potential SECT QF vs South Carolina...


Yeah, I think Bama would have to win the tourney to make it, but as I posted in another topic, if Bama beats Mizzou on Sunday, it would be the first time at .500 in the league since the 01-02 season.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 4022
Location: Minnesota


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 7:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

BamaEd wrote:
Yeah, I think Bama would have to win the tourney to make it, but as I posted in another topic, if Bama beats Mizzou on Sunday, it would be the first time at .500 in the league since the 01-02 season.


They might be able to sneak in as the last team in, if they only beat Mizzou and their first SEC Tournament game, if the other bubble teams don't do anything of note and there's no bid-stealers.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4272
Location: Carson City


Back to top
PostPosted: 02/28/20 9:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
The Big East could wind up with a 5 way tie for third if all the favorites win this weekend. And since everyone plays home-and-home against all other teams that would show how close the teams are. None of the teams have a Quadrant 1 win non-conference. Villanova was arguably weakest but they did have a win over Georgia (RPI 69). Seton Hall didn't have a top 100 win. Butler had wins over Ohio (61) and IUPUI (64), but lost to Ball St and Georgia. St John's best win was over Yale (67) and had a horrible loss to UNLV (I was at that game.) Creighton had the best non-conference performance, but their wins over West Virginia (60), South Dakota St (73), Northern Iowa (81), Nebraska (90) and Temple (94) do not look as good now because of middling conference seasons for those teams.

If that bottleneck occurs the first round of the Big East tournament could be the deciding factor.


Or maybe, without quality wins, none of those teams deserves to make it.


As always, who would choose instead? When you get down to the last few teams no one is going to have a stellar resume. If you are looking at a 1 seed you expect to see real quality wins. UConn's best wins are over DePaul and Ohio St, not what #1 seeds are about, but they don't have a loss lower than 3. But when you start looking at the last 8 in you aren't going to have many quality wins unless you also have many bad losses. I believe these teams are all in the 16 teams that span from last 8 in to first 8 out.

Today's results have Creighton crushing Villanova, Seton Hall getting an expected win and St. John's and Butler in a 1 point overtime game with 33 seconds to go.


Marquette Fan



Joined: 06 Mar 2005
Posts: 2840



Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 7:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Updated late last night:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


BamaEd



Joined: 11 May 2014
Posts: 487
Location: United States


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 9:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Right now I'm intrigued by the possibility of a 3/6 Mississippi State vs Florida State 2nd round matchup in Starkville. FSU has won on the road at Louisville and lost at home to Notre Dame. MSU does have some good wins, but did begin to trend downward to close the season. Needing OT against Auburn who was 9-14 (3-9) at that time, losing at home to my Crimson Tide. That shows they are vulnerable as well. That could be quite the game. I will be interested to see how each team does in the conference tourney.

On the other hand, I wasn't expecting Bama to be in tourney talk this season. I thought next season is when that would begin. But to see them on the First Four Out line makes me smile. They just had their first .500 SEC season since the 2002 conference campaign, they beat top 15 teams in consecutive games for the first time in program history, and they have 4 straight conference wins since the 1998 season. Kristy Curry's two 7-9 teams had top 8 tourney seedings, as well as this years 8-8. Before that, it was 2002 when they had a top 8 seeding. Not bad for a team picked to finish 11th.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12719
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 4:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Frankly, I want no part of Creme's latest version. I would like CT to make the S16. Shocked



_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 26483



Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 4:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Frankly, I want no part of Creme's latest version. I would like CT to make the S16. Shocked

so who do you want to play?



_________________
“Try to be a rainbow in someone's cloud.”
― Maya Angelou
WNBA 09



Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 9277
Location: Dallas , Texas


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 4:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
Frankly, I want no part of Creme's latest version. I would like CT to make the S16. Shocked

so who do you want to play?


In that Quadrant getting past either ASU or Iowa would be a tough task for the huskies.



_________________
3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 4022
Location: Minnesota


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 5:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
myrtle wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
Frankly, I want no part of Creme's latest version. I would like CT to make the S16. Shocked

so who do you want to play?


In that Quadrant getting past either ASU or Iowa would be a tough task for the huskies.


Geno already proved he's an inferior coach to JPM by turning Azura Stevens from a mega-super star to a role player, so cth probably doesn't want Geno to further prove it by losing to Duke since Geno doesn't have significant talent advantage to carry him past them this year.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 12742
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 6:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
Geno already proved he's an inferior coach to JPM by turning Azura Stevens from a mega-super star to a role player, so cth probably doesn't want Geno to further prove it by losing to Duke since Geno doesn't have significant talent advantage to carry him past them this year.


Or. Prolly NOT. Rolling Eyes

What I don't get: how did MD get the #1 seed? I take most of Charlie's *details* on the bracket with a large grain of salt, but....he's usually pretty close with the top seedings.



_________________
Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 60487
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 6:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
Geno already proved he's an inferior coach to JPM by turning Azura Stevens from a mega-super star to a role player, so cth probably doesn't want Geno to further prove it by losing to Duke since Geno doesn't have significant talent advantage to carry him past them this year.


Or. Prolly NOT. Rolling Eyes

What I don't get: how did MD get the #1 seed? I take most of Charlie's *details* on the bracket with a large grain of salt, but....he's usually pretty close with the top seedings.


Who would you put there instead?

They're leading a major conference (#2 in CRPI). They've won 14 in a row. They're #3 in RPI with 11 Quad One wins (second in the country to S Carolina), Six wins against the RPI top 25 (again second in the country to S Carolina). They have no bad losses. It would be easier to justify placing them ahead of Baylor than moving them down,



_________________
On Christmas Day, the Gingerbread Man said, ‘Ladyfingers, be my wife.’
calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4272
Location: Carson City


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 7:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Howee wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
Geno already proved he's an inferior coach to JPM by turning Azura Stevens from a mega-super star to a role player, so cth probably doesn't want Geno to further prove it by losing to Duke since Geno doesn't have significant talent advantage to carry him past them this year.


Or. Prolly NOT. :roll:

What I don't get: how did MD get the #1 seed? I take most of Charlie's *details* on the bracket with a large grain of salt, but....he's usually pretty close with the top seedings.


Who would you put there instead?

They're leading a major conference (#2 in CRPI). They've won 14 in a row. They're #3 in RPI with 11 Quad One wins (second in the country to S Carolina), Six wins against the RPI top 25 (again second in the country to S Carolina). They have no bad losses. It would be easier to justify placing them ahead of Baylor than moving them down,


The only two contenders for the last 1 seed are Marryland and Louisville. If one wins their conference tournament and the other doesn't that will decide it. Otherwise I just hope both are in Fort Wayne.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 60487
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 8:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
pilight wrote:
Howee wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
Geno already proved he's an inferior coach to JPM by turning Azura Stevens from a mega-super star to a role player, so cth probably doesn't want Geno to further prove it by losing to Duke since Geno doesn't have significant talent advantage to carry him past them this year.


Or. Prolly NOT. Rolling Eyes

What I don't get: how did MD get the #1 seed? I take most of Charlie's *details* on the bracket with a large grain of salt, but....he's usually pretty close with the top seedings.


Who would you put there instead?

They're leading a major conference (#2 in CRPI). They've won 14 in a row. They're #3 in RPI with 11 Quad One wins (second in the country to S Carolina), Six wins against the RPI top 25 (again second in the country to S Carolina). They have no bad losses. It would be easier to justify placing them ahead of Baylor than moving them down,


The only two contenders for the last 1 seed are Maryland and Louisville. If one wins their conference tournament and the other doesn't that will decide it. Otherwise I just hope both are in Fort Wayne.


UConn might slip in if neither wins their conference tournament. If Northwestern wins the B1G tournament and Louisville goes out early in the ACC (like another Syracuse loss), the Wildcats might be an option.



_________________
On Christmas Day, the Gingerbread Man said, ‘Ladyfingers, be my wife.’
linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
Posts: 4354



Back to top
PostPosted: 03/02/20 8:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Howee wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
Geno already proved he's an inferior coach to JPM by turning Azura Stevens from a mega-super star to a role player, so cth probably doesn't want Geno to further prove it by losing to Duke since Geno doesn't have significant talent advantage to carry him past them this year.


Or. Prolly NOT. Rolling Eyes

What I don't get: how did MD get the #1 seed? I take most of Charlie's *details* on the bracket with a large grain of salt, but....he's usually pretty close with the top seedings.


Who would you put there instead?

They're leading a major conference (#2 in CRPI). They've won 14 in a row. They're #3 in RPI with 11 Quad One wins (second in the country to S Carolina), Six wins against the RPI top 25 (again second in the country to S Carolina). They have no bad losses. It would be easier to justify placing them ahead of Baylor than moving them down,


Maryland is definitely a 1 seed but who have they beat? 11 Quad 1 wins sounds impressive until you look at those wins. They have played exactly 2 top 15 teams and lost both games. Given the steep dropoff of talent in wcbb a metric that rates the No 1 team as equal to the No 50 team is insane.

Baylor also has a weak case for a 1. Their SOS (43) isn't 1 seed material. They have played only 2 top 15 opponents and went 1-1. They pass the eye test for sure but the B12 hasn't given their numbers the usual boost. I could see Baylor losing their 1 seed if they lost in the B12 tournament while Louisville won the ACC.

Oregon? They are a west coast team and when has a defensively challanged west coast team won a title?

S Carolina? They rely on 3 freshmen to make significant contributions.


All in all the 1 seeds look as vulnerable as I have seen in a long time.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 4272
Location: Carson City


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/03/20 12:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The one thing I liked about today's reval was that the Committee seemed more interested in balance than geography. I didn't agree with some of their rankings, but given the rankings they had I think it was solid placement of teams.

I particularly think that DePaul and Gonzaga are overrated, but the Fort Wayne region looks quite intriguing.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 12742
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


Back to top
PostPosted: 03/03/20 1:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Oregon? They are a west coast team and when has a defensively challanged west coast team won a title?


Laughing Laughing Do you ever actually WATCH Oregon?? Laughing Laughing



_________________
Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    RebKell's Junkie Boards Forum Index » NCAA Women's Basketball - General Discussion All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
Page 4 of 6

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB 2.0.17 © 2001- 2004 phpBB Group
phpBB Template by Vjacheslav Trushkin