RebKell's Junkie Boards

[NoDakSt]

Zags hosting would be cool. Spokane is apeshit over basketball.

[ucbart]

[PRballer]

[cthskzfn]

here's hoping UConn stays in Fort Wayne despite the upcoming losses to Ducks and Cocks!

don't feel like getting whipped in Baylor's, Oregon's, or South Carolina's backyard in front of a full house.

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[WNBA 09]

[SpaceJunkie]

[cthskzfn]

[Marquette Fan]

Updated again today:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

I don't see the BE getting 4 teams in as he has projected right now.

[linkster]

A question:

We hear almost every year that the committee is bound by their Policies and Procedures. Over the years those have been revised several times. Who has the final say on the Policies and Prodedures? What is the process in revising them? I'm sure that there are recommendations from individual schools and conferences but at some point there must be a body or an individual who has the final say.
Who is it or who are they?

As Boss Tweed once commented: "I don't care who wins the election as long as I can control who gets nominated".

[calbearman76]

[Marquette Fan]

Updated again today:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

#1 seeds are South Carolina, Baylor, Maryland and Oregon

Marquette moves down from a 9 to 11 seed despite winning 2 games, moving solidly into 2nd place in the Big East and I think their RPI improved a bit. But then again I'd prefer an 11 seed for MU to the 8/9 seed. And I still can't get over the fact that there's even a projection with MU in the field at this point in the season - I was hoping for a .500 overall record with all they graduated and certainly didn't expect their 4th straight 20 win season which they reached with Sunday's win over Butler.

[Phil]

> Who has the final say on the Policies and Prodedures? What is the process in revising them?

Does it really matter? Don't the list of considerations have enough loopholes that they can do whatever they want in claim they complied with their policies and procedures?

The claim they start with RPI, and then have some of the metrics which might move someone up or down. If that's really the case, one would expect that if the RPI indicated they should be, say, a 3 seed, they might end up a three, or maybe get moved up to a 2, or may be down to a 4, but it would be extremely unusual to have more movement than that.

Missouri State is currently #4 in RPI. No I didn't say a four seed, I said number four overall, so their starting position ought to be one of the top four seeds. Creme has them as a five seed which is a long way away. He doesn't say there's a procedural bump moving them from a one to a five, and I don't believe he's commented on it.

My conclusion is that the claim they start with RPI is a crock, or at best, it means the other considerations are so significant that the RPI ends up being meaningless.

[Phil]

[Marquette Fan]

[pilight]

[calbearman76]

Pilight is 100% correct about the RPI. This year will be interesting to see how the Committee uses the quadrant system. This is a seemingly small change, particularly since the quadrants are not adjusted for home court. But from a pure optics standpoint quadrant 1 now combines games against the top 25 with games against 26-50.

(A) There are currently 60 teams that have 2 wins or more over quadrant 1. (B)There are only 15 teams that have not lost to a team outside of quadrant 1. (C) 35 teams have more quadrant 1 wins than non-quadrant 1 losses and (D) another 8 that have the same number.

Those teams are:

South Carolina (11 Q1 wins, 0 nonQ1 losses)
Maryland (10-0)
Oregon (9-0)
Baylor (8-0)
UCLA (8-1)
Iowa (8-3)
Louisville (7-1)
Northwestern (7-0)
North Carolina St (6-2)
TCU (5-1)
Arizona (5-0)
Florida St (5-3)
LSU (5-4)
Oklahoma (5-5)
Oregon St (4-1)
Missouri St (4-1)
Connecticut (4-0)
Mississippi St (4-1)
Texas A&M (4-0)
Indiana (4-0)
DePaul (4-0)
Kentucky (4-1)
Purdue (4-1)
Michigan (4-2)
Texas (4-3)
Syracuse (4-5)
Gonzaga 3-1)
Central Michigan (3-3)
Ohio St (3-1)
Arizona St (3-1)
Duke (3-3)
South Dakota (3-0)
Iowa St (3-2)
West Virginia (3-3)
Virginia (3-5)
St John's (3-5)
Minnesota (3-4)
Nebraska (3-2)
Michigan St (3-3)
Butler (3-4)
Princeton (2-0)
Old Dominion (2-2)
Florida Gulf Coast (2-0)
Virginia Tech (2-2)
Drake (2-1)
Creighton (2-4)
Rutgers (2-3)
Penn (2-2)
Seton Hall (2-4)
Northern Iowa (2-3)
Georgia Tech (2-3)
USC (2-4)
Southern Illinois (2-6)
Georgia (2-5)
North Carolina (2-4)
Auburn (2-7)
Wake Forest (2-9)
Buffalo (2-7)
Texas Tech (2-3)
St Mary's (2-11)


With this analysis there are a few teams that stand out. Tennessee has only 1 quadrant 50 win but no losses against non top 50. Other teams with no such losses but 3 or fewer quadrant 1 wins are South Dakota (3), Princeton (2), Florida Gulf Coast (2) and Stony Brook (0).

Oklahoma has 5 quadrant 1 wins but they are currently under .500. If Oklahoma could win 4 of its last 5 (which would include wins against 2 more top 50 teams) they would have to be seriously considered.

There are several teams with only 1 quadrant 1 win but are still being considered for an at-large berth: Arkansas (1 Q1 win, 2 nonQ1 losses), Marquette (1-2), Oklahoma St (1-2), Bradley (1-2), James Madison (1-2), Western Kentucky (1-3), Middle Tennessee (1-3) and Ohio (1-3). Finally there are 2 teams in the RPI top 50 who do not have a Quadrant 1 win, Troy and Dayton.

(note: these numbers are from Warren Nolan. I noted that in one case a win over Virginia (RPI 51) was included as Q1, but I believe the information is generally accurate.

[insidewinder]

[calbearman76]

[Marquette Fan]

Updated again early this morning:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

South Carolina, Baylor, Maryland and Oregon are the #1 seeds

In my area of interest - the Big East, DePaul moves down to a 4 seed from a 3 after their loss at Villanova. Marquette suffers a loss at Villanova but moves up this week after moving down in his prediction last week with 2 wins. And they are a procedural bump from a 10 to a 9 - I don't like that - I'd prefer a 10 or 11 to the 8/9 but I don't have much choice . We'll see if they still make it because I don't think things will go so well against DePaul in their last regular season game and who knows how the BET will go for them. And Creighton is still benefitting greatly from the win over DePaul with their predicted Tourney bid - they are in a 3 way tie for 5th in the BE right now at 9-7 with Seton Hall and St. John's with 2 games to go for all teams except for Marquette and DePaul who only have 1 game left.

[mzonefan]

[Marquette Fan]

[snlMINAJ]

maryland 4th number 1 - yikes? i guess good for uconn though.

[calbearman76]

The Big East is intriguing. DePaul is in for sure and Marquette is almost certainly in as well. But then comes the crowd with Butler, Villanova, Creighton, St John's and Seton Hall all under consideration. Butler is 11-3 in 2020. With two wins this weekend over the New York area teams they will move into second place and should get an at-large berth (even though Crème doesn't even list them in the first 8 out.) Villanova vaulted back into consideration with a weekend sweep over DePaul and Marquette, but they were bad in non-conference so they will need to sweep Creighton and Providence this weekend and most likely get to the Big East finals to have a shot at an at-large berth. Creighton has been in for Crème based on their wins over DePaul and Marquette, but their resume continues to weaken. They had 3 non-conference wins over Northern Iowa, South Dakota St and West Virginia that don't look as good as they did 2 months ago. A sweep over Villanova and Georgetown would get them up to a tie for 3rd or 4th and that should get them in, but a loss would put them in position where they would have to make a deep run in the Big East tourney.

St. John's and Seton Hall have very similar resumes which makes it surprising why Crème has been so much higher on St. John's. Either team has to sweep this weekend which would put them ahead of Creighton, and even then they will have to get at least one win in the Big East tourney and probably two.

In the end the Big East could get 3 or 4 teams in the NCAA. But who they are depends on this weekend and the Big East tourney.

[Marquette Fan]

[Matt5762]

I'm guessing Creme considers Butler's RPI disqualifying (currently #89). IMO Nebraska (#87) is an even more glaring omission considering their resume compared to those of the other teams on this year's bubble. I believe these numbers are indeed far higher than those of any at-large selection in history, but given the sad state of this year's bubble, it would seem wrong of the committee to blanket rule them out on that basis alone.