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cthskzfn
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cthskzfn
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SpaceJunkie
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cthskzfn
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cthskzfn
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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 Posted: 03/09/20 9:10 am ::: |
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Ok, in Creme's latest posting (LAST UPDATED: 3/8/20 3:15 AM ET), he has UCLA as a #2 with a "moved down" arrow. However, there are no #1's or other #2's with a "moved up" arrow.
When I first saw it, I figured that UCLA was in some other region than overall #1 South Carolina and had moved down to a better #1 seed's bracket.
I mean, if some team falls another team has to rise, right?
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/09/20 10:12 am ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
Ok, in Creme's latest posting (LAST UPDATED: 3/8/20 3:15 AM ET), he has UCLA as a #2 with a "moved down" arrow. However, there are no #1's or other #2's with a "moved up" arrow.
When I first saw it, I figured that UCLA was in some other region than overall #1 South Carolina and had moved down to a better #1 seed's bracket.
I mean, if some team falls another team has to rise, right? |
Currently, UCLA is down to a 3 and NC State is up to a 2 on his prediction.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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| Posted: 03/09/20 10:44 am ::: |
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| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/09/20 11:20 am ::: |
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| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight. |
The move down for Marquette was due to the win by Iowa st over Baylor.
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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| Posted: 03/09/20 2:06 pm ::: |
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| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight. |
*shrug* Always said he was an idiot. The rest of you are free to disagree as you wish. Marquette played great last night, BTW.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/09/20 5:07 pm ::: |
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| Here is the first test of how much the Committee looks at underlying data. Gonzaga has a 5-1 record against quadrant 1, except that it only has 1 win over the top 40. Purdue is legit top 50 but the other 3 are Dayton, MTSU and Tennessee Martin, none of whom are actual top 50. If Gonzaga gets to host then the Committee has been fooled by it's own data and presentation.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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| Posted: 03/09/20 5:21 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight. |
The move down for Marquette was due to the win by Iowa st over Baylor. |
I wish when a team goes up or down you could click on the arrow and get an explanation for the move - I can't get anything to come up when I click the arrow at least. That makes sense for the move although I'm not thrilled with MU being the same seed as Creighton - MU has a better record, better RPI, better conference finish and went farther in the conference tournament. They both share a win over DePaul but Creighton's is a tad better as they won at DePaul I guess. But like I said before I'd actually prefer a 10 to an 8/9 for MU.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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| Posted: 03/09/20 5:26 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight. |
*shrug* Always said he was an idiot. The rest of you are free to disagree as you wish. Marquette played great last night, BTW. |
I don't think he's an idiot - I just was stumped as to why Marquette went down. The Iowa State win makes sense as a reason.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 03/09/20 8:57 pm ::: |
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I don't think what Creme does is important (or particularly interesting), but I certainly wouldn't call him an idiot or get mad at him for any reason.
The NCAA selection committee, not Creme, determines the brackets. His job is simply to try to predict what the selcom will ultimately do, using the selcom's own tools such as RPI plus their other multiple, and often conflicting, bracketing principles. He gives his best predictions throughout the season and naturally becomes more predictively accurate as the season comes to an end. |
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 03/09/20 9:14 pm ::: |
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| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight. |
The move down for Marquette was due to the win by Iowa st over Baylor. |
I wish when a team goes up or down you could click on the arrow and get an explanation for the move - I can't get anything to come up when I click the arrow at least. |
I miss that feature. He used to have it with a little blurb on each team, but it’s been a few years.
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LitePal
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
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| Posted: 03/09/20 9:22 pm ::: |
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[quote="summertime blues"][quote="Marquette Fan"]He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight.[/quote]
*shrug* Always said he was an idiot. The rest of you are free to disagree as you wish. Marquette played great last night, BTW.[/quote]
When you make statements like this, you shouldn't be surprised when no one listens to you when you speak of something really important like the Coronavirus.
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Marquette Fan
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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Location: Shenandoah Valley
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| Posted: 03/09/20 10:09 pm ::: |
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| LitePal wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| He moved Marquette down to a 10 today after they’d been a 9 for a few weeks. While I much prefer the 10 to a 9, I can’t figure out why he’d move them down this morning. They’ve won 4 in a row, their RPI has improved over this stretch and they play in the BET final tonight. |
*shrug* Always said he was an idiot. The rest of you are free to disagree as you wish. Marquette played great last night, BTW. |
When you make statements like this, you shouldn't be surprised when no one listens to you when you speak of something really important like the Coronavirus. |
Opinions and factual knowledge are two different things, and if you are unable to tell the difference, perhaps you should consider that you may be speaking for yourself, and hold your tongue...or keyboard.
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Don't take life so serious. It ain't nohows permanent.
It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/10/20 12:38 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
I don't think what Creme does is important (or particularly interesting), but I certainly wouldn't call him an idiot or get mad at him for any reason.
The NCAA selection committee, not Creme, determines the brackets. His job is simply to try to predict what the selcom will ultimately do, using the selcom's own tools such as RPI plus their other multiple, and often conflicting, bracketing principles. He gives his best predictions throughout the season and naturally becomes more predictively accurate as the season comes to an end. |
As an aside, I really find Creme's work important and interesting, as WBB is being treated by ESPN as MBB - constantly updating Bracketology, articles about movement and how recent results impact seeding, etc. In terms of coverage, this is great.
When a number of posters on message boards attack Charlie Creme for not "getting it right" when it comes to his Bracketology, remember this thread - and what the Committee does (and does not do), the rules by which it complies (and the ones by which it does not), etc. Creme is not the amazing Kreskin (nor is he expected to be), but his job is exponentially more difficult when having to balance how and when the Committee chooses not to follow particular rules, deciding which rule is more important than another, or to seed teams certain ways.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 03/10/20 1:02 pm ::: |
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| I think Charlie's work creates interest (and yes, controversy too) thru-out the season. He's not an omniscient God, but he usually gets it in the ballpark. Isn't it kind of fun to agree/disagree on different aspects of it? I think that's the point. This year has been particularly difficult to predict so it will be interesting to see what the committee does with it all.
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 03/11/20 1:06 pm ::: |
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| Central Michigan will be a bubble-buster after losing to Toledo in the MAC tourney today.
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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| Posted: 03/11/20 1:32 pm ::: |
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| mzonefan wrote: |
| Central Michigan will be a bubble-buster after losing to Toledo in the MAC tourney today. |
CMU might not even deserve to be in the NCAA Tournaent now, but it'll all go down to whatever the committee weighs the most if they still sneak in as one the very last teams in.
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/13/20 10:03 pm ::: |
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| mzonefan wrote: |
| SpaceJunkie wrote: |
| mzonefan wrote: |
| Central Michigan will be a bubble-buster after losing to Toledo in the MAC tourney today. |
CMU might not even deserve to be in the NCAA Tournaent now, but it'll all go down to whatever the committee weighs the most if they still sneak in as one the very last teams in. |
Doubtful they’d sneak in with an RPI of 22. :lol: |
I still had them in, but under a few formulas I run they would be out. Their resume includes only one top 50 win over Dayton, a team that didn't have a quadrant 1 win. They lost 3 of their last 4, but the timing of games seems less important anymore. Their RPI is 22 driven by a 214-118 record of the teams they played, but only Louisville was a top 25 team. But I believe the biggest reason to put them in is that they won the 10th best conference by 3 games, so the loss in the conference tournament should not be enough to keep them out.
Last year UCF had a slightly better resume and an RPI of 18 and they were among the last in
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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. But seriously I'd love them to be a 10 or 11 instead of the 8/9. But I'm most excited about the fact that I know they'll be dancing and don't have to wait a week to find out if they'll get a bid or not as I'm assuming with their resume that they're a lock to get an at-large bid.